Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Reds Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of On Baseball and the Reds.

1) Jay Bruce. How excited are you about him for 2009? What are you expecting? Feel free to use exclamation points and run-on sentences.

….You know, I’m probably not the best person to ask this. The reason is that, somehow, I’ve never been quite as excited about Bruce as everyone else. The guy clearly has amazing talent, with great ability to hit the ball often, hard, and far. He’s also a solid defensive outfielder with a plus arm. He’s got a great personality, and even has this cool punch thing he does with his left arm to adjust his shirt sleeve when he’s waiting for a pitch. He’s a superstar in the making. But he also is a fairly impatient hitter, walking only marginally more often than Brandon Phillips last year and not a whole lot more in the minors. And he strikes out a lot, mostly because there are times when he’s just up their hacking away at anything. I think he absolutely has an opportunity to be spectacular, and maybe even will do it this year. But it’s also the case that his lack of patience and tendency to strike out (~25% of PA’s in the minors) may make it hard for him to employ all of his talents against major league pitching. Maybe I’m just letting my pessimism about the Reds invade my evaluations of Bruce, though. I sure hope he mashes this year.

2) Same question as number one, but now Joey Votto.

Votto was everything you could ever hope for last season. He was billed as a Justin Morneau player with a tad less power, and that’s essentially what we got–except that Votto is better defensively that Morneau. Fangraphs actually has them valued as almost exactly the same last season, with a slight edge for Votto (3.5 wins above replacement for Votto, 3.3 WAR for Morneau), mostly due to their defense (Morneau is absolutely the better hitter). Seems about right to me. The question with Votto is whether he can improve on his 2008 performance. I tend to think that what we saw from him is about what we can reasonably hope to get, and some of the better projection systems (CHONE, in particular) agree. If he can do what he did in 2008 every year for the next 5 years, I’ll be ecstatic.

3) I think in 2009 Cueto is going to be better than Volquez. Agree or disagree? Why?

I’ll disagree, but only marginally. Volquez was unbelievable last year, and while I think he’ll regress a bit, I still think he’s going to be a very good pitcher for us. Cueto should also improve–he all but skipped AAA and turned in a pretty decent season with good k/bb numbers. If he can avoid home runs a bit better this season, he could be right there with Volquez. … He does seem to be a fly ball pitcher, though, so homers are always going to be a problem. Especially playing in GABP. But when you add that pair to Harang and Arroyo, the Reds could very well have the best rotation in the division. My hope is that it’s a bright spot on the team. … mostly because that’s about the only spot I think we can reasonably hope to be bright.

4) After owning Aaron Harang on a few fantasy teams last year, I’m still walking like I was just jumping hurdles. Will Harang bounce back in 2009?

Not sure. I sure hope so. All of Harang’s peripherals slipped last season. I tend to believe the explanation that he was pitching through a hidden injury for at least a month, and he ultimately did have to go on the disabled list. A lot of people blame Dusty for that… I remember voicing some concern about bringing Harang back so soon after his relief appearance, but I think everyone (Dusty included) just figured Harang was a beast and could handle 239 pitches in three outings over eight days. Nothing we’d seen before then indicated that he was human, after all. He did finish strong (with the exception of that last start), which makes me feel optimistic. I do think he’ll be better in 2009. But I also think that the days of challenging for the league strikeout lead might be behind him. The guy’s going to be 31 in May. Most projection systems have him around a 4.10 ERA in 180-190 IP’s, and that seems like a reasonable hope to me.

5) If you overheard someone say, “Dusty Baker really knows how to manage a pitching staff.” Which mental disease would you think this person suffered from? Feel free to go into detail.

Nice. I do think that Dusty is really good at handling personalities in a clubhouse, including pitchers. So from that perspective, I guess this could be sort of true. And he’s probably better at managing the bullpen load than some other recent Reds managers (not saying much–some have been really bad at that). But there’s good evidence that he tends to push his starters pretty hard (the Reds had 4 guys in the top 30 in pitcher abuse points last season–though good pitchers tend to get a lot of PAP’s), and there are a fair number of arm injuries on his watch. Harang’s (hopefully) minor breakdown isn’t all his fault though–the rest of the organization had to be on board with letting him start that game so soon after his relief appearance. But it fits the general pattern we worried about when Dusty was hired, too. It’s also worth noting that Jeremy Affeldt, who last season was one of the team’s best relievers, pitched in an astonishingly low number of meaningful situations (pLI=0.56). It’s as if Dusty decides that a player will fill a particular role–in this case, middle relief/mop-up–and then can’t change his mind about it. Corey Patterson as a leadoff hitter is another example of the same problem…

Ryan Zimmerman went into last year with a bum wrist, which was enough for me to be down on him — Beavis, “Hehe, Grey was down on him.” — I didn’t want any part of Zimmerman.  Then when he came down with an injured shoulderitis or some shizz, I backed away slowly from him like when your friend tells you he got herpes from his cousin.  It all smelled bad like a skunk in a microwave.  There was no way I was drafting Ryan Zimmerman last year.  And my concerns were confirmed, as Zimmerman put up some yawnstipating numbers, 51/14/51/.283/1.  Those numbers look similar to the numbers Ryan Howard can put up in one month.  So why am I touting Ryan Zimmerman as a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

In September of last year, Ryan Zimmerman went 14/5/13/.290 in 93 ABs.  5 home runs in that final month shows me the surgery he had on his shoulder last summer took, and there’s no reason to have any worries about lingering problems.  Oh, bee-tee-dubya, he’s still only 24 years old.  He won’t make huge strides in his power numbers for 2009.  He’s not going to explode for 40 HRs.  He’s not that type of hitter.  But 100/20/100/.290/7 is not a completely unrealistic floor for Zimmerman.  That’s right, floor.  He can go above those numbers.  Since he’s going late in drafts, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t grab him as your 3rd baseman if you punted that earlier.  Or grab him as your corner man.  Ryan Zimmerman is not going to save your team, but he’s a decent fantasy sleeper.

With the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings in the bag, we turn to strategy.  Did you know your very own mustachioed ‘pert has a fantasy baseball draft strategy?  It’s called Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.  As you can see from that link, it’s in its 2nd year of existence.  With a new year comes some changes.  The first big change, I lost the 2nd -ing.  Not sure why I was dropping gerunds like they were “tic-tacs,” but I’m a changed man.  I was younger then, almost a full year.  Let’s face it, I was naïve.  That draft strategy was like amateur hour.  And this is the first time I’m admitting this to anyone, but my cousin wrote the whole thing.  I’m not going to tell you my cousin’s name or why I had him write it.  I was young and stupid.  Not as young or as stupid as I was the day or weeks preceding that draft strategy post, but young and naïve and stupid nevertheless.  Luckily, I got all of my young, amateur hour, stupidness out in that one post and I was able to go back to being a fantasy baseball blogger without the assistance of my cousin, Tom.  Okay, I am telling you his name.  But that’s the last you’re ever going to hear from him or me on him or him on me.  We’re through, Tom and I.  This is 100% my fantasy baseball draft strategy and some that I cribbed from other people.  Enjoy.

1.  Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Johan.  No Lincecum.  No Javier Vazquez if you’re a diehard CHONEr.  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  If I had a pet guinea pig, I’d name him Joham.  These sums-a-snitches give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Beltran or whoever is too great.  Recognize!  Or not.  Your call.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Nathan, Rivera, Lidge… Wait, this has a name!  I need to look it up in my fantasy baseball glossary… I knew it!  This is a closer run!  I have to take K-Rod with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  You barely need a 2nd tier one.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves, because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

As appealing as Ryan Church seems on your bench, it’s poppycock.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Jose Guillen on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder, just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Crapolanco or Ian Stewart for your MI spot, who do you choose?  Pierzynski or Saltymochachino?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your second, third and fourth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  So when choosing between Greinke and Lowe, go Lowe.  Between Kershaw and Baker, go Kershaw.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

Over at FBHOF.com, I’ve been lamenting my inadequacies from the past 2+ years which resulted in an inordinate amount of time number crunching in Excel.  My quest – a draft day “war room” that allowed me to keep my finger on the pulse of the league while minimizing my effort.  I don’t know about you, but I prefer to keep track of more things as opposed to fewer, this path can ultimately take precious minutes away from thinking about your next pick.

Presenting the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame War Room.   It’s an auto-updating Excel workbook that keeps track of all the necessaries:

• Color Coded Dashboard that “crosses off” selected players
• Team by Team analysis of players taken, players left.
• League wide finances – how much was spent, how much can still be spent, and that all important “Max Bid”
• Real time projected totals, along with real time projected league standings.
• “Traffic Light” Goal Tracking Dashboard
• Auto updating Draftee List for you team, that includes both the projected dollar amount and winning bid amount so you can keep track of your value gained or lost.

There is a more on the project here, including screen shots and instructions on how to download. It’s free too, though that might not live up to the grand prize of $50 dollars worth of stomach pain and quick moving bowels.

Vernon Wells was primed for his ‘every 3rd year’ routine, but now he’s strained the same hamstring he hurt last year that caused him to miss 50+ games.  Word out of Blue Jay camp is he’ll miss at least 4 weeks.  A broken-down VW isn’t going to help your team go anywhere.  Just forget about the 30/100/.300/10 guy and think of him as that 20/80/.270/5 guy.  Hate to say it, but he’s a lot closer to Aaron Rowand than an elite fantasy OF.  The best thing to come out of Vernon’s hammy injury is Adam Lind and Travis Snider could see more time.  Anyway, here’s some other things going on during spring training that effect 2009 fantasy baseball:

Garrett Anderson – GA signed with the Braves.  This does nothing for his value.  And prior to this, he had no value.  You do the math!

Orlando Hudson – Joyce DeWitt was so proud when I anointed her son a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Oh, well.  She’ll always have the hand she played in inventing Jiggle TV.  (And it wasn’t a hand — wokka, wokka, wokka…)  Orlando Hudson’s picture is next to the definition of yawnstipating.  You should not be drafting him in any leagues.

Blake DeWitt – His value is now K to the aput.

Nyjer Morgan – Sounds like he’ll be opening day left fielder.  Stay tuned because he could be a cheap source of steals.  SAGNOF!

Chase Utley – He’s already taking batting practice.  I think he’s the Phillies starting 2nd baseman when they take the field for their first game of the season, with him and Hamels sharing hair gel.  Does the hip effect his speed?  He steals 10 instead of 15.  I’m just hoping my drafts happen soon so I can get Utley at a discount.  You should be hoping the same thing.

Melvin Mora – He said he’s going to put up “.340, 20-plus (home runs) and 100-plus (RBIs).”  Otherwise known as Bill James’s projections for Chris Davis.