Fantasy Baseball Advice

You just lost the Word Series. Curl up into a ball and cry. Aw, baby’s crying. There’s no crying in fantasy baseball! Actually, there is. Prolly more than in real baseball. I carried a hanky around during every Harang start in 2008. Wait, this is about Longoria. Longoria a keeper? As they say in Fargo, you betcha. He missed two weeks in the beginning of the season because the Rays were dragging their feet, then he missed a month at the end with a broken wrist. I know where your hesitation might lie — the Derrek-Lee-broken-wrist-loss-of-all-power factor. Luckily, Longoria’s wrist injury came in a place that should heal fine and have no lingering effects, according to the Disabled List Informer. The power he displayed when he returned from injury and in the postseason backs this up.  Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Joey Devine – People thought Brian Dunkleman and Ryan Seacrest were both necessary. They weren’t. Watch as Devine Seacrests Ziegler. Or will it be Ziegler Dunklemaning Devine? Don’t you hate when your own shizz confuses you? Hmm… Maybe none of that makes sense. Well, as the Talking Heads said, Stop Making Sense. (BTW, this winter will be the winter of Devine. I’m going to push him hard — not literally that would be battery.)

Stephen Drew – Sorry, 2009 will be known as the Winter of Devine and Drew. Can you feel the excitement? I can’t hear you. No, really I can’t. You’re reading and I’m typing. What would I hear?

DON’T KEEP

Brad Ziegler – This shizz will become more clear when 2009 spring training starts, but I highly doubt Ziegler is the closer in 2009. So if you must make a decision right now, don’t keep him. He’s getting Dunkleman’d! Hmm… Still not making sense.

Miguel Tejada – Since I put a young potential SS keeper above, I figured I’d put Te-nada here, although no one’s really even considering keeping this schmohawk. I know that.

With the offseason upon us, and Larry King done congratulating the Phillies, it’s time we look at offseason moves. The peasant Royals didn’t waste long at all to get the trading under way. They acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for Leo Nunez. The Royals are real movers and shakers now! With Shealy, Butler, Ross Gload and Kila Ka’aihue, the Royals desperately needed an all-power, low-average DH/1st baseman. They must be happy to cross that off their Christmas list. Finally they fill the void that Steve Balboni left twenty some-odd years ago. Going the other way in the trade, the Marlins get a very solid bullpen arm in Leo Nunez. As you can tell from my tone (Aw, am I being harsh?), I think the Royals are boneheads, but this is not for me to decide. Let’s talk about this trade from a fantasy baseball perspective:

Mike Jacobs – The trade to the Royals will not help him hit better than .260. If anything, it might cause him to hit even worse. Now he’ll be facing pitchers that he hadn’t seen at all or only during interleague. I liked Jacobs last year for some late round power and that doesn’t change. Now he has a few more caveats (<–yo, that’s Latin!) attached to his name. He can be easily replaced by the foursome of DH/1st basemen and he’ll be facing unfamiliar pitching. 30 home runs is still his over/under. .250 is his ceiling.

Leo Nunez – The Marlins have to be the most fortunate franchises in the history of baseball. Everything they touch turns to gold and I wouldn’t be surprised if Nunez is just another example. He has some low minor closing experience, so they could possibly use him in that capacity (which is doubtful). He has starting experience so they could use him as a starter — also doubtful. He will more than likely be used as a middle man. He might not be drafted out of the gate in 2009, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives some fantasy teams a much needed middle reliever boost. Mr. Bs, are you listening?

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Hello, fantasy baseball fans, in America and abroad! Can you believe another season is over? Way to go, Philadelphia Phillies! One story of the World Series that was under reported is the size of Ben Zobrist’s hands. They’re tiny!…. Philly may be The City of Brotherly Love, but Tampa is definitely The City of the Classy Waitress. Not one sideways glance when you leave a 12% tip….If you only saw one game these playoffs, I hope it was the last third of the last game of the World Series….Feels like yesterday I was watching my beloved Brooklyn Dodgers beat the Yankees in the 1955 series and proposing to my then second wife. Or was it third?…. Thank you, Cliff Lee, for such a tremendous 2008 performance. You have the same name as the computer tech guy in my building that told me I don’t need to wear a baseball cap covered in aluminum foil for good television reception. Goodbye to my telly cap!…. Why don’t blueberries come in other colors? Redberries sound delicious!…. Yesterday I got into an elevator with all-time great, Jeff Reardon. He will make you laugh!….The more I think about it, the more I appreciate spoons….Tough break for the Brewers and their fans, but you can’t blame their skipper, Dale Sveum. Those last twelve games of the season that he managed were the most courageous managed games I’ve ever seen…. I love to eat at Popeye’s!…. With the Rays performance in 2008, I think the Pirates have to be early favorites in ‘09…. Why does wood get so dusty?…. Have you seen “Nights in Rodanthe?” Three words, Gere meet Oscar…. Where did I put my reading glasses? I think this keyboard’s written in Chinese!….

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008 and yesterday we went over 20 best draft picks for the hitters in 2008. Today, we go over the best value for their 2008 draft picks — the pitchers. The top 20 best draft picks of 2008 were figured out the same way I figured out the busts, using Rudy “Point Shares” Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. You’re not going to see someone such as Brandon Webb on this list, because he was drafted high and supposed to perform well. The players on this list are late round gold nuggets found between the turd nuggets. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball pitchers. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Joe Saunders – If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks – Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour – I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester – Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe – Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge – I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer – Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood – At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez – Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina – I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria – Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco – My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia – In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera – I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana – Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster – Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden – Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay – According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum – 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee – Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew – I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay – I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado – Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez – Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora – Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley – Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez – Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier – Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit – You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta – See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu – I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady – Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa – You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis – I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin – Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff – Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth – You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton – To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia – Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick – Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19