The Moment of Zen:
This week, we return to koans for our moment of Zen wisdom. As a reminder, koans are found in anecdotes or stories and serve as the focal point of meditation for someone practicing Zen. While popularly, the koan is often understood to be the story itself, it is probably more correct to say the koan is, as Tricycle puts it, “a surprising or paradoxical word or phrase” within the anecdote (https://tricycle.org/magazine/what-is-a-koan/). In today’s story, the koan will involve, as the title indicates, “Tigers and a Strawberry”:
A man traveling across a field encountered a tiger. He fled, the tiger after him. Coming to a precipice, he caught hold of the root of a wild vine and swung himself down over the edge. The tiger sniffed at him from above. Trembling, the man looked down to where, far below, another tiger was waiting to eat him. Only the vine sustained him.
Two mice, one white and one black, little by little started to gnaw away at the vine. The man saw a luscious strawberry near him. Grasping the vine with one hand, he plucked the strawberry with the other. How sweet it tasted! (“A Parable,” Zen Flesh, Zen Bones 44)
Unlike other koans I’ve read (which can be dense, confusing, and even frustrating to understand, causing koans to be perceived by many as nonsensical), this one seems fairly straightforward. There are tigers everywhere the man looks – it’s pretty clear, no matter what happens, tigers are going to be the end of the man in the story thanks to the mice who are simply doing what mice might be expected to do. This essential guarantee of death might lead the man to fear and suffer even before the tiger gets its meal, but instead the man is able to spot “a luscious strawberry” and has enough peace of mind to reach out for it and experience “[h]ow sweet it tasted.” Presumably, these are the last moments the man will have before he meets his end, and he does not waste them – he stays in the moment and appreciates the life that he finds in front of him.
If only we could all learn to do that.
How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?
I am hopeful that no tigers are chasing you in your life, especially as it relates to fantasy baseball, though it may feel at times there are tigers all around. Although we play this game because it’s fun, we might often find ourselves focusing on the frustrations of the game and inconsistencies of players – or of our own decision-making – that create obstacles to enjoyment. Or we might find ourselves focusing on the impending – and seemingly guaranteed – lockout coming after this season that may, and quite likely will, cause a delay of the 2027 season, if not a full cancellation of it. Or we may find ourselves frustrated by MLB’s non-consumer-friendly television deals, or problems with the MLB app, or exasperation with the fact that our favorite team’s ownership group won’t pony up the money needed to compete.
Perhaps, “Tigers and a Strawberry,” can serve as a reminder to us that, while we focus on the irritations of the fantasy game or stresses involved with watching and allowing ourselves to care about baseball, a kid’s game, we are necessarily allowing ourselves to enjoy moments that ultimately have little to no actual impact on our lives. If I lose my fantasy league, my life almost certainly will be unchanged. If I win my fantasy league, my life will almost certainly be just as unchanged as it would have been if I had lost. The hours I spend digging into data are hours I choose to spend, not ones that my life depends on. In a sense, every moment we spend with fantasy baseball, or even with baseball as a whole, is a juicy strawberry. I can eat it while worrying about the tigers around me, or I can just eat the strawberry and enjoy it while I do. That seems like a better approach.
As a way to enjoy the sweetness that a kid’s game allows for us, I’ve decided to point out the performances of two players who have been nice surprises this year. As a baseball fan, I’ve enjoyed seeing these guys perform at higher levels than I initially expected. And as a fantasy manager, I can also take advantage of what they’re doing if I am paying close enough attention to know that these guys are really having seasons that could bring value to my fantasy team.
Our first player is starting to generate some buzz in the broader fantasy community, as I’ve heard him mentioned on a couple of the podcasts I most respect. Among serious high-stakes players, Cedric Mullins is already well-known and highly rostered, but I find he’s been overlooked in most standard, popular leagues. He probably shouldn’t be, especially if you’re in 12-team leagues or deeper.
A look at his surface stats tells us the strengths and weaknesses of Mullins’s game: He currently has a .213 BA, 10 HR, 31 R, 29 RBI, 14 SB in 296 PA. It’s easy to look at that .213 BA and be scared off, but consider the other stats. Extrapolated to a season-long 650 PAs, Mullins is on pace to tally 22 HR, 68 R, 64 RBI, and 31 SB. While he likely won’t get enough plate appearances to reach those numbers for the season, on a per-AB basis, those are numbers that can help us if he can continue them. Can he? I think so. Take a look at these stats:
Mullins doesn’t hit the ball hard consistently: he has only a 31.2% HH% and an even less impressive 3.9% Barrel%. That said, he does have his highest max EV since 2022 (110.4 mph this year compared to 110.5 mph in 2022 when he hit 16 HR with 34 SB). That maxEV is up 2 mph from 2025, which also was up 2 mph from 2024. Even with the higher maxEV, it might be tempting to doubt he can continue hitting the ball out of the park, especially if we get caught up in his 28.4% LA Sweet-Spot%, which puts him in the 8th percentile until we take a look at his actual launch angle, which this year is 27.9° (up 4.6° from 2025, which was up nearly 2° from 2024). He might not be hitting the sweet spot as he achieves his launch angle, but the angle itself seems geared toward getting the ball out of the park – as does his 7.5% increase in FB%). And the fact that he seems to be focusing on hitting the ball with more exit velocity, his power approach looks intentional.
Yet even with the apparent sell-out for power, Mullins’s plate discipline stats aren’t bad: He has only a 19.6% K% despite his attempt to get the ball out of the park. So, though he seems to be focused on loft, he’s not up there just blindly hacking at balls. In fact, his contact percentages are up across the board – overall Contact% up 1%, Z-Contact% up 1.4%, O-Contact% up 2.3% – despite swinging outside the zone more often (up 2.8%), with his other swing percentages up across the board.
He isn’t a dangerous hitter in real-life baseball, and his BA isn’t going to improve much, if it does at all. But his glove will keep him on the field, and he’s undoubtedly a fantasy-efficient offensive player, especially if we are able to take advantage of his strong-side platoon at bats. And he’s available on lots of waiver wires: While he’s rostered nearly universally in NFBC 15-team leagues (96%), he is only 40% in Online Championships (12-team leagues) and 45% in Fantrax leagues. With the more widely-played leagues, he is barely a blip on the rostership radar: CBS 20%, ESPN 3.4%, Yahoo 8%. Someone listed as the 146th overall hitter on the Razzball Player Rater should be more hightly rostered than that.
For our deeper league dive, we go to the offensive friendly ballpark in Colorado where the Rockies’ young third baseman Kyle Karros is quietly putting together a solid season. He currently has a .263 BA with 7 HR, 44 R, 29 RBI, and 3 SB. Added to the helpful batting average and very solid run total, he has real discipline at the plate: He currently has a 12.3 BB% (helping him to a .360 OBP), only a 21.2% K%, and a Chase% of only 24.6% (which puts him in the 80th percentile). While his overall Contact% is lower than I’d like (76%), his 88.3% Z-Contact% is quite good, and both his O-Swing% (24.7%) and his CSW% (27.1%) are acceptable.
Especially if we consider his hard-hit metrics, his 44.5% HH% is up 10+% from his short MLB stint in 2025 (156 PA), his 111.8 maxEV is up 4.3 mph from 2025), and though he has only a 7.9% Barrel%, his 89.6 mph EV is also up (1.7 mph above 2025). And he’s hitting the ball in a way to get it out of the park: his LA Sweet-Spot% is 42.3%, which puts him at 96th percentile.
His numbers are even more exciting if you consider his slow start to the year: In Mar/Apr he totaled a measly .215 BA and 3 HR, which hid his reasonably palatable 22 R, 15 RBI, and 2 SB in 190 PA. But things have changed since June 1st: In 102 plate appearances since June began, Karros has upped his hitting and on-base skills significantly as he’s tallied 31 hits (for a .352 BA), 11 walks (for an 11.2% BB%), and 3 HBP to help him achieve a .441 OBP. Though the 4 HR since June aren’t exactly earth-shattering, he continues to produce runs (22 R) and RBI (14 RBI), and his SLG% over the period is right around .600. If we do the extrapolation game, his June and July pace, over 650 PAs would get him to 25 HR, 140 R, 89 RBI, and 6 SB. Do you see value there?
Despite Karros’s strong month or so, his high-stakes rostership is too low: He is at only 33% rostership in NFBC 15-team leagues, 6% in NFBC 12-team leagues, and 34% in Fantrax leagues. Which means his rostership in more widely popular leagues is basically nonexistent: 16% in CBS, 2.7% in ESPN, and 6% in Yahoo. Like Mullins, Karros’s ranking on the Razzball Player Rater (144th overall hitter) suggests he needs to be much more highly rostered.
As the tigers chase us this week, let us be aware that even if the tigers get us (which they eventually will), there is much beauty and sweetness still in front of us if we would only see it.
Until next week. –ADHamley
