No Doubt

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
BOS Chris Sale TEX @BAL
LAD Hyun-Jin Ryu @LAA CHC
TB Charlie Morton OAK LAA
NYY James Paxton NYM @CWS

If you ask Trevor Bauer, it’s no coincidence that Charlie Morton took a big jump forward upon arriving in Houston in 2017. Then again, maybe Trevor Bauer should ask for a trade to the Astros to get himself right, but I digress.

Charlie Morton is throwing his curve more than ever before (36%) and it’s yielding phenomenal results. On the surface, he has career best ERA, WHIP, and K rate (30.4%). The curve is getting a 20% whiff rate (best of his career), 55.74% GB rate, .110 batting average against, and a .153 slugging against. Keep throwing those Uncle Charlies up there, Charlie.

 

Start Em If You Got Em

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
DET Spencer Turnbull @KC CLE
MIN Martin Perez SEA KC
COL German Marquez CHC SD
PIT Joe Musgrove @ATL @MIA
LAA Griffin Canning LAD @TB
TEX Mike Minor* @BOS @CIN

In late August 2018, Martin Perez gained 2-3 mph on his pitches and the increase has carried over to 2019 with the highest average velocity on the FB he’s ever shown. In addition to the velocity gains, he ditched his mediocre slider in favor of a cutter, which has a better whiff rate and batting average against than the slider ever did. He also seems more confident in the cutter than the slider throwing it 33.75% whereas the slider has never been throw even 13%.

I tend to be skeptical about new pitches as teams tend to pick on on them the more they see of it, and that fall may have started already, but he has two juicy match-ups this week to earn some trust back.This is likely the weakest second tier of two start pitchers that I have seen all year. Competing for top surprising pitcher of the year is Martin Perez along with the likes of Matthew Boyd, Jake Odorizzi, and Mike Minor.

 

Serviceable

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
BAL John Means TOR BOS
PIT Chris Archer @ATL @MIA
CHC Jose Quintana @COL @LAD

Some of you may be surprised to see John Means on the list, but he’s earned it at this point with a sub 3 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP on the season.  Primarily a FB/change up guy coming through the minors, it seems as though Means has found the right mix to hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s getting more comfortable with the slider, and is using it not only against lefties, but throwing it down and in to righties as well recently. His usage rate on the slider has more than doubled in May from under 10% previously to around 20%.

The K rate isn’t anything to write home about and the Red Sox are a less than ideal 2nd start, but he’s avoided bad blow ups this season outside of one 5 IP, 5 ER effort at the White Sox. This grouping is up and down, but for this week, serviceable feels about right.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
TOR Trent Thornton @BAL @HOU
WSH Anibal Sanchez @CWS ARZ
ATL Mike Foltynewicz PIT PHI
PHI Jerad Eickhoff ARZ @ATL
SEA Mike Leake @MIN @OAK
ATL Kevin Gausman PIT PHI

None of the names on this list inspire much confidence. In fact, per Rudy’s player rater, the best rating of the group is .5 for Mike Leake. However, in a 2 start week, these are options you can start, but maybe not watch.

After 3 solid starts, Kevin Gausman has gotten lit up the last 2 starts. As far as I can tell, he’s just had terrible location on his pitches with too many hanging over the middle of the plate. Gausman has all but eliminated the slider from his pitch mix limiting it to the fastball and splitter, and I wonder if teams are catching up to that as well.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
STL Dakota Hudson @MIA @NYM
KC Jakob Junis DET @MIN
CHC Yu Darvish @COL @LAD
SF Shaun Anderson SD MIL
MIA Sandy Alcantara STL PIT
TEX Ariel Jurado @BOS @CIN
ARZ Jon Duplantier @PHI @WSH

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Jakob Junis

It seems like the Streamonator and I never agree on Junis. I would need some kind of blindfold to start him, but the ‘nator gives him the benefit of the doubt.

 

Immediately Regret This Decision

Team Player Opponent 1 Opponent 2
OAK Daniel Mengden @TB SEA
NYM Jason Vargas @NYY STL
ARZ Taylor Clarke @PHI @WSH
CWS Dylan Covey WSH NYY

 

Side Notes

  • The Cardinals have a TBD for Monday. The educated guess is Daniel Ponce de Leon and he’d be in the Eyes Wide Shut category for me.
  • Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 8 times in a row, well, I guess I should apologize. The Padres don’t let Chris Paddack get 2 starts even though he lines up for it every week, and I’m assuming this week won’t be any different. For the record, I’m not worried about Paddack. He’s just been missing his spots recently.
  • Griffin Canning should have 2 starts next week, but the Angels have used 6 man rotations and there’s a chance it could be Felix Pena as well.
  • The Red Sox have a TBD for Tuesday. Looks like it could be Ryan Weber and he’s a Regret This Decision guy for me.
  • The Rockies have a TBD for Tuesday. Could be Peter Lambert who also goes in the Regret This Decision grouping.
  • Surprise, surprise, the Rays have a TBD on Tuesday. I believe it will be Jalen Beeks as the primary/bulk pitcher. Stick him in the Brown Paper Bag grouping as the limited amount of innings makes it basically one full start for him in a 2 start week.

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
AL EAST
BAL Tuesday
BOS Monday, Tuesday
NYY Monday
TB Monday, Tuesday
TOR Tuesday

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
AL CENTRAL
CWS Monday
CLE X
DET Tuesday
KC Tuesday
MIN Tuesday

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
AL WEST
HOU X
LAA* Monday
OAK Monday
SEA Tuesday
TEX Monday, Tuesday

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
NL EAST
ATL Monday, Tuesday
MIA Monday
NYM Monday
PHI Monday
WSH Monday

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
NL CENTRAL
CHC Monday, Tuesday
CIN X
MIL X
PIT Monday, Tuesday
STL Monday, Tuesday

 

Team Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days
NL WEST
ARZ Monday, Tuesday
COL Monday, Tuesday
LAD Monday
SD* Tuesday
SF X

*Possible 6 man rotation

 

 

 

  1. Chris says:
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    Teheran or Heaney the rest of the year in H2H?
    I got a pretty solid staff (Thor, Flaherty, Ryu, Castillo and either Teheran or Heaney will round up my staff

    • Teheran

      • Eric L says:
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        Where does Tanaka rank now that he’s supposed have two starts this week? And why is D Hudson ranked so low given how safe he’s been of late?

        • Throw Em If You Got Em for Tanaka. Hudson is low for the lack of Ks and WHIP risk.

  2. 183414 says:
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    I’d rather have Heaney.

  3. IrishMike says:
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    Comon, with the way Vargas has looked he should be “brown paper bag” right? I am running him out there. I think 5 total ER and 12 k’s is worse case scenario, am I an idiot?

    Or I could just stick Lugo in his spot……..?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Based on results, that’s probably fair, but it’s Jason Vargas. We all know a massive blow up is coming, right? That start vs SEA is pretty neutral, but at the Yankees isn’t ideal.

      At least he’s a lefty, the Yanks are 24th in runs scored against lefties and 1st vs righties, okay, fair enough, you changed my mind, he’s a brown paper bagger. I doubt they are monitoring his pitches/innings too closely, but it is worth noting he threw 117 in his last start. He’s probably worth the 2 starts over Lugo this week.

      (Still worried about the potential blow up that’s coming at some point.)

      • IrishMike says:
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        You da man thanks!!!

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