This is one of the most difficult posts to write all year. Maybe I shouldn’t try to write it with my feet. Eff it, you know what? No guts, no glory. No toes, no post either, naw mean? There’s just so many different ways the top 20 for 2016 fantasy baseball could go. Maybe next year I’ll write a top 10 with a ten way tie for the tenth ranked guy. Last year, I had Nolan Arenado higher than anyone and Ian Desmond. You win some, you lose some. I also had Donaldson, Bryce, Hanley and Bautista in the top twenty. Again, win, win, lose and…DRAW! Two words…I’m drawing what appears to be a pirate only he’s in front of a mic stand… It’s Fetty Wap! I wouldn’t draft a starter in the top twenty, so I rank them accordingly. If you want to bemoan my ranking of Kershaw or any pitcher, then bemoan away. Just remember, a bemoaner sounds a bit to me like “U be a boner.” All the positional rankings will live under the 2016 fantasy baseball rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2016 fantasy baseball:
11. Jose Altuve – This tier started in the top 10 for 2016 fantasy baseball. This tier ends here. I called this tier, “These names could surprise you. Boo! That boo was also meant to surprise.” As for Altuve, I wanna keep this short. *tries to stop from giggling, bursts* Dah, sorry, okay, okay. Is it me or is it weird that Altuve sounds like altitude in Spanish? He should be Jose Subterraneanuve. During the offseason, Altuve insulted someone in his native Venezuela and they challenged him to a duel. So, they put their backs to each other and marched twenty paces out, but then when they turned around, Altuve had barely moved. Okay, enough! As his mom yelled at him when he reached five-two. The better the Astros get the less likely it is Altuve will steal 40+ bases as he did one year in his four-year career. He gets caught too much, for one. Well, you would too if you needed 10,000 steps between 1st and 2nd base. Okay, seriously, that’s it! The big surprise for me ranking Altuve here was that I was ranking him here. I kept trying to move him down, then I looked at him and I was like, “Isn’t he low enough?” 2016 Projections: 103/12/57/.304/35
12. Starling Marte – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Martinez. I call this tier, “Excuse me, sir, but you don’t have anything for Grey to poop on?” I want one of these guys and the only way I’m drafting them is by ranking them this high. Sue me if they’re ranked too high for your tastes. I must remind you that “sue me” is simply a shorthand here. Due to man hours at a minimum wage of $9/hour, Razzball is running in a $500,000 cash flow hole, so you can’t technically sue me for anything except complaints; those we are running in the black on. A lot of Grey’s poop on’ing in this tier has to do with HR/FB%. Due to this, I nearly put Correa in the Grey poop ons, but how can you put a country in a jar of mustard? I think when guys are fast, with 30-steal speed, it’s not necessarily a terrible thing that fly balls and how many go for homers are an issue. You don’t want fast guys hitting everything in the air. In fact, Marte hits next to nothing in the air. He had the 8th lowest fly ball rate for qualifying hitters last year. The big difference with the guys that usually hit no fly balls (like Ben Revere, for unstints) is Marte hits balls far. His homers on average went further than Arenado, Bautista, Edwin, Goldy and Miggy to name a few high-profile sluggers. So, Marte had a 22.7% fly ball rate, but hit homers deep. If you’re on the No-Fly List, you also want to be on the Deep-Fly List. By the by, am I the only one that sees the No-Fly List, which is a list of people who are not permitted to board a commercial aircraft for travel in or out of the United States, and thinks, “I wouldn’t mind if you let them fly together.” In previous years, Marte hit a 29.2% fly ball rate and a 27.5% FB%. If Marte had a 29% fly ball rate last year, he would’ve hit 30 homers. There’s obviously no guarantee he goes back to that rate of fly balls, but I don’t think it’s silly to think the possibility exists either. Is it more or less possible than, say, Donald Trump reveals his entire candidacy was to boost enrollment to Trump University? I’d say Marte hitting 30 homers is more possible. So, there’s some for Grey to poop on, but his outlook is still Gulden’s. Why do I feel like Colonel Mustard? 2016 Projections: 86/20/93/.282/31
13. Mookie Betts – I swear to you, I kept trying to move players above Betts in the rankings, but do you know who kept being more impressive? Mookie Betts. I’d go as far as portmanteauing that into imBettsive. First, where are the “Grey poop on’s” with Betts? I think the lineup behind him is old and getting older by the minute. I don’t mean that like, “Hey, I’m a human and I’m getting older by the minute because that’s what humans do.” I mean that as in Pedroia, Ortiz and Hanley might play a combined 150 games with 120 of those coming from the 54-year-old Ortiz and the other thirty combined from Pedroia and Hanley. Pedroia and Hanley are the oldest 32-year-olds since the high school friend of yours on Facebook who had a baby at 15 and whose kid is now looking at colleges. Those aren’t terrible “Grey poop on’s,” or “the non-deli style” if you’re reading this at a lunch counter. What’s to like? I’m glad you asked, Clunky Transitional Question! Betts had a 8.2% HR/FB rate with a 42.4% fly ball rate. If he can get his HR/FB% to 10%, which is nothing, and hold his fly ball rate, he’s going to hit 23 homers without changing a single thing. He hit 18 homers last year with only a 395 average distance, but he’s 23 years old. You have to think he’ll add a bit more power this year. He had the 6th most doubles last year with 42. You don’t need Bip Roberts gifting you a Rosetta Stone to translate this. If he hits for a little more power, he could hit 27 homers. All the fly balls don’t bother me much in Fenway either, because on most days he pulls them and they hit off the wall for a double. As for the speed, he’s an easy 20-steal guy. In Double-A, he had 22 steals in 54 games. If he stole 40+ bases this year, it wouldn’t shock me. Wanna know who Betts is? He’s a young Pedroia. I will call him, Pedobear. 2016 Projections: 105/24/67/.307/22
14. J.D. Martinez – Just Dong hit 38 homers and .282 last year. His value will come from whether or not he can repeat. Just Dong hit 38 homers and .282 last year. Clearly, I can repeat them. Okay, my intern who writes these up was getting wise there, and I obviously didn’t feel like backspacing. Backspacing is for people who make milkshakes. So, where’s “Grey poop on” Just Dong? Welcome, Googlers of anything in that preceding question! Fantasy baseball may not be what you’re expecting. Martinez’s HR/FB% was 20.8 and 19.5% the year before. Nothing really alarming there. Maybe he hovers down to 17% HR/FB, but he hits the ball hard. His Hard Contact rate last year was the best in baseball for qualified hitters. He averaged around 400 feet on his homers and he had a 43% Fly Ball rate. He has the profile of a home run hitter. If we take a modest step back to a 38% fly ball rate and a modest regression to 17% HR/FB, he still hits 27 homers. Steamer projects him for 27 homers in 141 games (he played in 158 last year), so Steamer isn’t expecting nearly as much regression as I’m suggesting could happen. What does all of this mean? I had to work really hard to turn Martinez into a negative, and I still wasn’t able to get there. Like my kidney on the black market, I’m sold. I’ve shuffled Martinez in the rankings to as low as out of the top 20 to as high as right here. I’m done pussyfooting around and now I’m Just Dong’ing it! 2016 Projections: 88/34/105/.287/5
15. Andrew McCutchen – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Edwin. I call this tier, “I have reservations, and I don’t mean a land parcel for a Cleveland Indian.” This tier doesn’t scream stay away, but it’s definitely whispering, “There could be trouble ahead.” Am I avoiding everyone in this tier? I’m going to attempt to, yes. I’ve already said I’m not drafting Kershaw, but he’s not an avoid if he’s around to be drafted at 16th overall. He just won’t be available to be drafted there. I’m hoping the same with Miggy, Abreu, McCutchen and Edwin too. I doubt there’s any situation where every single player I have ranked above these guys is drafted. For me to even get to a place where I need to draft one of these guys, it would mean A) I get stuck with the 15th pick and everyone above these guys is already gone. Very unlikely. B) I get to my 2nd pick and one of these guys are there. At that point, these guys are good value and I’m happily taking them. C) There’s no C. As for McCutchen, I don’t like that he struggled with knee issues. If a problem with a knee arises again, then his 11 steals last year could become seven steals. On the reals, I don’t even see him stealing more than 20 bases again in his career. Good knees or bad knees, dirty knees, look at these. That’s fine if he had 30-homer power. Last time I checked, he had 22-25-homer power. I think he’ll be fine overall, but in the top twenty I want the bee’s knees, not bum knees. 2016 Projections: 89/24/98/.289/14
16. Clayton Kershaw – He sorta has no reservations, Anthony Bourdain. Kershaw has a little thing called, “He’s not a hitter.” That’s the snafu there. I can get you to a team 3.25 ERA without drafting a top ace. That’s my pledge to you or my name isn’t Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate). Would I draft Kershaw here? Sure, but that’s a hypothetical like, “Would you cheat on your wife if Jessica Alba wanted to sleep with you?” Just like if Sean Connery wanted to sleep with my Cougar. Go for it, Cougs! …Except it’s a hypothetical that has no real world significance, i.e., you can draft Kershaw here, but he won’t be here to draft. You can say, “But what if he is?” until you turn blue in the face, but now you’re just a Smurf and you still won’t have the opportunity to draft him. Sorry, didn’t want to be a Gargamel here. 2016 Projections: 18-6/2.28/0.90/277 in 224 IP
17. Miguel Cabrera – Doesn’t get more obvious in this tier why I have some reservations for this guy. Miggy has stopped staying healthy. Even a healthy Miggy might only mean 25 homers. Of course, 25 homers, .320 average, 100 runs and 100 RBIs does have some value. And by ‘some’ I mean yum. No, Miggy, I didn’t say rum. Out of all of the guys I’m ranked so far, Miggy feels to me like the one with the best chance of getting injured in Spring Training and sending fantasy baseballers’ heads slamming into their walls, which would ruin their beer posters. 2016 Projections: 101/25/104/.318/1
18. Jose Abreu – He bored the pants off of me last year. Speaking of which, my mom was right, I should always have on clean underwear. My bad, moms! Abreu still got to 30 HRs, .290 and 101 RBIs. He’s now done 30/100 in his first two years, which is some kind of arbitrary record he shares with Pujols. I’m flippant because Abreu played in Cuba first and a lot of players could’ve achieved that record if they weren’t held back until June for their rookie year call-up. So, it’s a nice record, but it’s not buttering my biscuit, if you catch my drift. Abreu does feel like a lock for thereabouts 30/100 and there’s value to that, especially when it comes with a guy that can hit .300. So, where’s the reservations? In Cheektowaga, New York. Oh, where’s my reservations on him? I told you, I owned him last year and he’s boring as dog balls. Must I repeat myself? And that’s me quoting me! There is no C. Any hoo! 2016 Projections: 93/29/105/.296/1
19. Edwin Encarnacion – I think it’s a fair question to ask why Edwin and no Bautista. Bautista feels like he’s about to make a steady decline from a plateau; Edwin looks like he’s on the very edge of the plateau with the ability to stave off decline for one more year. Again, Edwin’s numbers aren’t screaming it. It’s more like we’re in a library and his numbers are saying, “Psst, you see this?” Last year, Edwin’s fly balls came down and his soft contact was at its highest in four years. He hit a ton of infield fly balls, which backs up the weak contact, but he swung at more pitches inside the strike zone than he had in four years. What does this mean to me? If he was swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone and making weak contact it would be one thing. A guy swings at a ton of pitches inside the strike zone and makes weak contact? That means he’s losing ground. His average homer distance in 2014 was 408 feet. Last year, it was 406. Then again, he had a ton of No Doubt homers, which doesn’t mean he circled the bases singing, Just A Girl. Though, his parrot might’ve been. Obviously, Edwin’s not falling off a cliff, or, keeping this with a Blue Jays theme, falling off a Cliff Johnson. Rogers Centre should soften the abrupt decline, but I think it’s coming. With all of that said (Here goes Grey throwing out everything he said prior), Bautista and Edwin are kind of a coin flip. Only I want Edwin’s head to come up more, and Bautista is just outside of the top 20 for those that can’t wait. 2016 Projections: 84/33/97/.260/3
20. George Springer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to here. I call this tier, “On every team.” The tier name refers to where I want Springer. I looked around at other rankings and I was like, “Springer’s ranked in the thirties? That’s insane.” Then I looked elsewhere and I was like, “He’s ranked in the 50s?! Okay, that person is on drugs and those drugs are making them daffy.” Then I looked somewhere else and thought, “Nice, he’s ranked in the top 20. Oh, wait, I’m looking at my own rankings.” I tried to fit a lot of other guys into this top 20: Justin Upton went nearly 30/20 last year and is still young, Chris Davis hits 50 homers like it’s his job (which, actually, it is), Bautista eats homers for dinner then farts the scent of plums, Pollock isn’t just a Eastern European who pushes on a door labeled ‘Pull,’ Arrieta gave up like two runs in the final three months of last year, #CharlieBlackmonMatters… There was Todd Frazier, Votto, Braun, yadda3. They all make a case for the top 20. Sure, I didn’t try that hard to fit Upton, Frazier, Votto, Braun or Arrieta into the top 20, but I tried. Stop doubting my effort. They all failed to impress me and my team of a hundred monkeys that type up these posts. Something that is going on in the top 20, which I sang like Buffalo Springfield, then remixed with Public Enemy. (By the by, if someone wants to open a Brazilian wax shop called Pubic Enemy, let me know, because I trademarked the name.) That something is you want guys that hit 20-ish homers and steal 20-ish bases, and you know -ish don’t kill my vibe! Springer’s giving you power and speed. He had a 33% strikeout percentage in 2014, this past year 24% (more evidence that Kris Bryant’s can come down). Springer’s walks stayed the same, his line drives went up, he went the opposite way more, he’s just entering his prime, and, just to make this run-on sentence completely complete if he went 40/25 this year, it wouldn’t shock me. A lot of people are going to be drafting Pollock here because of what he did last year. Guess what? It’s not last year. It’s this year and this year it’s time for Springer. 2016 Projections: 104/31/89/.269/22
