Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2023: Week 9

It’s Memorial Day folx! In addition to your firework festivities that will surely keep my toddlers up all night, we are now 1/3 of the way through the MLB season. In fantasy terms, that’s probably more like half of the season, depending on your playoff format. Especially in deeper leagues, fantasy MLB playoffs are like the NBA and NHL, where they go on for half a year. Nothing says hockey like teams from Florida, Texas, and Nevada playing in June! Just as I was writing this up, I realized the Razzball Basketball site was still churning out articles. Good job, Son! I think my RazzJam team last played in…March? ENYWHEY. I’m here for all your weird fantasy scheduling needs. Have a happy Memorial Day for you Americans, or bank holiday for you Brits, or pre-solstice preparations for all my dwellers of the night.

News and Notes:

Joe Musgrove: I mean, it was pretty bigly of me to suggest that my millions* of readers draft Joe Musgrove in the 10th round when he hadn’t yet taken the field. Kettlebell to the toe. That’s what he gets for doing strictly un-American exercises! Next time, Musgrove will practice with more patriotic exercises, like crushing cans with his fist by the dozen while sitting in his garage listening to Skynyrd. But to my thronging masses, I bring you news of success: Joe Musgrove is the 23rd most successful starting pitcher over the past month! [drops mic, storms off to the Nordstrom Rack].

Well, Musgrove is tied with like 20 other pitchers for 0.5 WAR contributed in the past month. That’s a fair sign. 1-2 record = meh. 3.68 ERA over the past month? Meh. But it’s nearly 2 points better than his season 5+ ERA.

Last week I talked about how Musgrove’s rough baseball card stats have been produced by a combination of “late start” to the season and a Murderer’s Row of matchups. Musgrove’s easiest matchup in 2023 has been the Yankees, who are still a top 15 MLB team for wRC+. You ever face off against Aaron Judge and say, “Well, that’s a relief!” Over the next couple weeks, Musgrove is slated for MIA (20th in wRC+), SEA (17th in wRC+), and CLE (dead last). Here comes the regression to the norm! Hope you’ve kept Musgrove on your roster.

*Editor’s note: EWB claimed he has millions of readers. This is a fabrication. According to the latest Nielsen Fantasy Baseball Ratings, EWB has 1.2 billion readers. He is very popular in Indonesia, where the third most popular boy’s name is “EWB.” 

Charlie Morton: Regular Chuck still ain’t the fantasy stalwart he once was, but he’s on track for a 15 Win season with 180 IP, 180 Ks, and a 3.60 ERA. As my grandpa would say, “That’s stickier than a cat on Christmas!” I’m never sure what he meant by that. But with Morton’s BABIP sitting at .340 still, and his CSW% topping 30% with a 12+% swinging strike rate, we’re looking at a Hot Morton Summer in the making.

Alek Manoah: I asked y’all to get rid of him a couple weeks ago. He’s gotten worse. The trade value ain’t there. 12-team managers won’t receive nickels for this guy. Dynasty managers might get a lower level prospect, or maybe there’s a Canadian manager who really wants a reclamation project.

I think the worst-case situation for dynasty managers is entirely feasible and probably coming up: Manoah has multiple options left on his contract, and he’s not due for arbitration for a few years. The Blue Jays will likely send Manoah down to AAA to fix himself, and he could logically stay down there the whole season. Sure, the Blue Jays need a starter right now after Robbie Ray took his pants on a two year vacation. But Nate Pearson, Zach Thompson, and Drew Hutchison each have starting experience, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is due back after the All-Star Break. The Blue Jays are probably hoping that Manoah rights the ship while hanging out with the MLB coaches, rather than going down to AAA to dominate lesser batters.

And it’s that above worst-case scenario for dynasty managers that presents a Sophie’s Choice: do you continue to roster a MLB-eligible pitcher who has barely started their career but is also out of minor league eligibility in all formats. Manoah’s case of the yips will probably normalize by next year. If Manoah can’t manage the plate in the next few starts, the Blue Jays could ostensibly send him to the Minors for the rest of the year. Sending Manoah to the minors for 2023 would mean that your 2023 fantasy third-round pick will fight for a rotation spot in 2024. Yuck.

The choice is yours, but there are zero redeemable signs in Manoah right now. His velocity is +/- 5% per outing, his BB/9 is often as high or higher than his K/9, and his true skill stats at near or above 6.00. I would personally sell for any value you can get, otherwise, drop and move on.

Julio Urias: Joined the 15-day IL. Urias’s year-long stats look acceptable, but his performance over the past month has been atrocious. Maybe it was leg-related? But then again, even our heroes have bad streaks. See below.

Gerrit Cole: It’s time. Every year, I point out that our favorite SP1 will go through about 4-6 weeks where he’s completely unusable for fantasy. Now is that time. My fan club* will push back and say, “But EWB, Cole is the best pitcher in the history of smashball!”

Cole over the past month: 5.14 ERA, 6.57 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. He even had a quality start thrown in there for good measure.

Every year your favorite starter has a period like this. This is variance. Variance comes in many forms: sometimes you can’t control it well (BABIP) and sometimes you can right the ship quickly (CSW%). During this “down” period, Cole is still producing above-average swinging strike rates. His fastball velocity is even up!

Up is down and left is right and Cole is performing like a rookie because that’s what he does. Historically, Cole has righted the ship after 4-6 weeks, and his performances during the “up” time are so dominant that they more than compensate for the “down” times. Last year, Cole’s “down” time happened during the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully this year, Cole rights the ship and finishes without a second “down” phase. Keep starting Cole in all formats, and live with the variance until it normalizes.

*Editor’s Note: To join EWB’s fan club, send a self-addressed stamped envelope to Grey’s house with a money order for $50. Grey will certainly send EWB his royalties.

Kodai Senga: Walk rate is atrocious but his swinging strike rate has reached 16%+ rates and his FIP is 3.01 over the last month. He’s K’ing 11+ per nine over the last month as well. The Mets have a fair shake at Win luck, meaning Senga-san could be a second-half powerhouse for lucky fantasy teams.

Aaron Nola: Finally seems like he’s getting out of spring training mode. Thanks for making me look like a pre-season genius, Aaron! His K/9 and swinging strike rate have soared over the past couple games and his xFIP is sub-3.00, which shows signs of that elite starter that we’ve been waiting for. Of course, we all knew Mitch Keller was the true SP1 on the year. But now Nola looks like he understands the assignment and is finally clicking. Fingers crossed for a second-half that looks like my pre-season projections hoped for.

Rankings: