everywhereblair

Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2022: Week 7

May 23, 2022 | Top 100 Starting Pitchers | 22 Comments

by:

Remember that ultra-successful Hollywood box office hit Lucky Number Slevin? Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Lucy Liu, Josh Hartnett — what is this, The Sleventh Sense? That’d be a cool sequel, bee-tee-dubs. A little kid who steals money from banks because ghosts tell him all the secrets and then he uses psychic powers to steal from the rich and give to the poor. Who doesn’t love a Robin Hood archetype? ENYWHEY. Think about some kind of dumb title for this article like Week Slevin Top Hurlers! Hypehouse Arms: 2 Months minus 1 Week Edition! Can we get Jason Blum to produce this? Could use a good jump scare after this first item I share with you. Quickly, onto the Main Act!

News and Notes

L30$/G=Actual fantasy value over last 30 days per game appearance; wK/9=weighted K/9 over season; wPABIB=weighted ability of pitcher to generate outs; wL30FIP=weighted FIP over last 30 days.

Max Scherzer: Ol’ blue eye is gonna miss 6-8 weeks because he doesn’t do 10 minutes of hot yoga every morning before staring at the “Be the Change” meme he posted to his vision board. Oblique strains can be pretty wonky for recovery. So wonky, that I’ll I have to do is post the following tweet about Jack Flaherty’s oblique strain from 2021 and most of you are going to be crying in your avocado toast for the rest of the season:

So, Max Scherzer isn’t Jack Flaherty and every injury is different yatta yatta. That said, Scherzer’s injury will provide an opportunity for fantasy managers to assess the damage and then try and find the next big thing, as I noted in my pre-season article about injured pitchers.

Martin Perez: OK, what’s happening here. Complete game shutout. I’m not “taking the L” there, first because I don’t live in Chicago, and second because this shouldn’t be happening.

Perez is SP16 on the year so far, which is fantasy sexcellence. However, we can’t sit here and say, “I told you so.” Perez had 1,100 career innings before 2022, with a 4.71 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and a 6 K/9 to 3.5 BB/9. The reason you haven’t heard of him being great for fantasy is because he was terrible for fantasy. Now let’s look at 2022: 6.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and SIERA/xFIP over double his ERA and FIP/xERA about 0.8 points higher. In his complete-game shutout, he faced 32 batters and struck out only 5 hitters. So 27 batters made contact with the ball and 8 baserunners total, none of whom crossed the plate. Just like with Reid Detmers’ no-hitter that featured only 2 strikeouts, we have to think about the role of defense here. In baseball, you’re out or safe — those are the only two outcomes for an at-bat. If a pitcher strikes out a batter, there’s no chance for them to be safe. If a pitcher allows a ball in play, a whole mess of contingencies begin. It’s worthwhile to point out that Perez had a 2-month stretch in 2021 where he had a 2.22 ERA and 8 K/9, before spending the next two months with a 7.13 ERA/6.87 FIP and getting relegated to the bullpen. Should you use Perez for fantasy? You do you. The “negative” regression is coming. Perez is whiffing a few more batters than usual, but we have an immense amount of data on this guy (10 years! 1000+ IP!) and he’s been all over the league. His fastball velocity is actually a bit down compared to career norms. His pitch mix is the same as it always was. This is not a recipe for SP16. What we’re likely seeing is the culmination of what so many batters in 2022 complain about — the ball sucks. For the rest of us, keep Perez in your thoughts for DFS (although he’s definitely not a bargain anymore) and best balls, but don’t be surprised when he turns into a pumpkin come June.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Martin Perez 40.6 -37.37% 4.16% 43.62%

Michael King: I mean, have I gone too far with this “Roleless Rob” thing? No, it’s the kids who have lost their way. Let’s do one of those anonymous comparison tables and see what you notice:

Name K% BB% FIP HR/9
Player A 46% 5% 1.10 0.45
Player B 36% 5% 1.29 0.34

So, Player A is Jacob deGrom’s start to 2021 through May 9 (after which he started his IL roundtrips), and Player B is Michael King in 2022. Among P with 20+ IP in 2022, Michael King is second-best in the league, behind David Bednar and ahead of Shane McClanahan. In the same sample size cohort, Michael King has the second-best FIP, right behind Kevin Gausman. King hasn’t hit the “spot starter” part of the season because the Yankees starters have been, on the whole, healthy and reasonably effective. When you’ve got a bunch of players who are contracted to be starters (Cole, JoMo, Taillon, and Severino) doing well and Nasty Nestor Cortes decimating the league, there’s no reason to move King — who has racked up an astonishing 26 IP in relief (also 2nd in the league behind Keegan Akin) — into a starter role quite yet. Nonetheless, for those of you in RCLs, Michael King is a must-roster for his ratio prowess, and deep league players should absolutely keep King in the lineup every day. Everybody else, keep an eye on the news to see if a Yankees SP gets hurt and King gets a shot as a starter.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Michael King 4.2 15.64% -1.24% 66.87%

Cristian Javier: Even after getting blown up for 7 runnings early in May, his time as a “starter” has been pretty effective: 10.5+ K/9, 3.90 ERA, and 3.75 FIP, and 2 Wins. His pitch mix is changing pretty drastically recently — nearly 15% more fastballs, a quintupling of curveballs, and a big cut to his slider usage. Plus, he’s gaining some velo on his fastball. So, the Astros are tinkering with both his role (starter/Roleless Rob) and pitch mix, and we could see a big change in his results soon. In his last start, he went 6IP with 9 strikeouts and a walk, which fantasy managers will take to the bank every day. That said, his pitch mix was also drastically different than his previous outings, so we may not see a ton of consistency going forward. Fingers crossed that the pitching coaches have figured him out and we’re about to see a breakout season.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Cristian Javier -4.6 1.24% 3.06% 1.67%

George Kirby: Here’s what I wrote in a previous life about George Kirby for fantasy:

We all love some prospects but the truth is, sometimes they need a bit more playing time than their rookie year before they’re useful for fantasy. Last year’s top rookie pitcher — Trevor Rogers— was the #90 overall consensus prospect. The second-best overall rookie pitcher was none other than the unheralded Luis Garcia, who had never played above High-A ball. In terms of WAR, the best “premier prospect” rookie pitcher in 2021 was Logan Gilbert, who finished 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA. Fantasy stud! I’m not saying Kirby won’t be good or won’t be useful for fantasy in 2022. What I am saying, is that prospect pitchers are very risky.

So far, Kirby’s been pretty boring, with a whiff line that looks like Martin Perez. [Tries to think of a joke about “whiff lines”]. Kirby has 4 strikeouts over his last 9 IP, which is about as exciting as watching batting practice. At 24 years old and all of his options remaining, there’s not a ton of reason to force Kirby to stick in the Majors right now. Imagine you’re a general manager and your star prospect arrives and is K’ing at a rate nearly half of what he should be K’ing (11 K/9 in minors vs 6.6 K/9 in majors). Do you leave your star prospect in the majors and effectively start his rookie clock when he’s providing status quo-levels of performance? Or do you let him get some more innings in AAA and wait for September? It’s quite the Sophie’s Choice! You keep doing you on Kirby, and I’m still in the camp that fantasy managers will see better results from Kirby in 2023 and beyond.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
George Kirby -26.6 -40.41% 3.26% 1.13%

The Rankings

Here’s how to use the list:

  • Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS.
  • Name: Player name
  • Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player in the near term.
  • Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This % may vary depending on site and format for readers.
  • L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates.  Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games.
Tier Name Confidence Own% L30$/G
1 Michael King 4.391 4.2
1 Shohei Ohtani 4.292 100 24.6
1 Dylan Cease 4.298 100 0.4
1 Carlos Rodon 4.297 100 -18.9
1 Shane McClanahan 4.131 100 39.6
1 Freddy Peralta 4.291 100 43.4
1 Nestor Cortes 3.941 100 25.6
1 Eric Lauer 3.676 100 42.3
1 Cristian Javier 3.645 100 -4.6
1 Kevin Gausman 3.683 100 26.2
1 Jesus Luzardo 3.483 84 6.4
1 Brandon Woodruff 3.444 100 -8.7
1 Alex Cobb 3.344 91 -33.7
1 Tarik Skubal 3.397 100 30.2
1 Lucas Giolito 3.186 100 0.5
1 Kyle Wright 3.281 100 9
1 Max Scherzer 3.142 100 18.3
1 Pablo Lopez 3.178 100 28.3
1 Max Fried 3.083 100 12.2
1 Clayton Kershaw 3.171 100 33.9
1 Zack Wheeler 3.069 100 21.7
1 Aaron Nola 3.035 100 -0.4
1 Frankie Montas 3.003 100 -12.9
1 Logan Gilbert 2.969 100 -3.5
1 Gerrit Cole 2.964 100 44.9
1 Joe Musgrove 2.959 100 23.7
1 Corbin Burnes 2.954 100 13.3
1 Zac Gallen 2.968 100 39.6
1 Justin Verlander 2.906 100 53.2
1 Tylor Megill 2.901 93 -23.9
1 Garrett Whitlock 2.893 100 -34.5
1 Kenley Jansen 2.886 100 6.1
1 Paul Blackburn 2.977 100 11.8
1 Justin Steele 2.885 5 -25.3
1 Carlos Carrasco 2.882 100 -6
1 Sean Manaea 2.879 100 -41.6
1 Drew Rasmussen 2.878 100 47.6
1 MacKenzie Gore 2.951 80 -5.2
1 Tyler Mahle 2.841 100 -24
1 Martin Perez 2.910 82 40.6
1 Jeffrey Springs 2.887 16 0.3
1 A.J. Minter 2.831 7 -2
1 Daulton Jefferies 2.806 5 -78.9
2 Alek Manoah 2.779 100 26.6
2 Spencer Strider 2.766 55 -1.7
2 Merrill Kelly 2.760 98 -24.4
2 Wil Crowe 2.758 14 -1.9
2 Robbie Ray 2.742 100 -13.9
2 Joe Ryan 2.736 100 24.2
2 Zach Eflin 2.731 5 -12.7
2 Michael Kopech 2.723 100 -2.8
2 Ryan Helsley 2.700 100 10.9
2 Yu Darvish 2.687 100 11.1
2 Justin Wilson 2.683 -2.2
2 Triston McKenzie 2.671 100 13.3
2 Jon Gray 2.666 27 -28.7
2 Nick Pivetta 2.666 50 27.6
2 Miles Mikolas 2.663 100 16.8
2 Scott Effross 2.659 -1.4
2 Keegan Akin 2.648 -12.1
2 Kyle Gibson 2.637 82 -25.3
2 Walker Buehler 2.621 100 16.7
2 Victor Arano 2.603 -7.1
2 Logan Webb 2.596 100 -5.2
2 Tanner Houck 2.595 41 -19.1
2 Dane Dunning 2.584 25 1.9
2 Corey Kluber 2.580 77 -28.5
2 Steven Matz 2.577 59 -27.2
2 Sam Hentges 2.575 0.6
2 Ross Stripling 2.575 -39.8
2 Framber Valdez 2.574 100 10
2 Chris Bassitt 2.574 100 3.4
2 Kyle Freeland 2.573 -27.4
2 Jovani Moran 2.567 5
2 Aaron Ashby 2.557 57 -30.4
2 Alex Vesia 2.546 -3.6
2 Jason Adam 2.538 9 0
2 Luis Garcia 2.533 100 1.8
2 Luis Garcia 2.533 100 1.8
2 Luis Severino 2.530 100 -0.9
2 JT Brubaker 2.530 7 -29.8
2 Patrick Sandoval 2.529 100 3.8
2 Brock Burke 2.523 14 5.1
2 David Bednar 2.511 100 4.7
2 John Brebbia 2.506 -0.9
2 Evan Phillips 2.502 -3.6
2 Hector Neris 2.497 11 -3.8
2 Alex Wood 2.497 98 -25
2 Jose Quintana 2.496 27 -1.3
2 Tyler Anderson 2.490 45 -8.5
2 Adrian Houser 2.490 14 -2.3
2 Devin Williams 2.482 61 3.1
2 Bryan Abreu 2.473 5
2 Josh Hader 2.473 100 7.6
2 Shane Bieber 2.462 100 -54.1
2 Parker Mushinski 2.460 -8.8
2 Marcus Stroman 2.457 80 18.8
2 Brooks Raley 2.456 52 -1.8
2 German Marquez 2.451 61 -62.5
2 Trevor Gott 2.446 -2.7
2 Adam Ottavino 2.442 -4
2 Chasen Shreve 2.436 -8
2 Bruce Zimmermann 2.435 -15.6
2 Mauricio Llovera 2.432 -3.2
2 Jordan Montgomery 2.432 100 -21.4
2 Zack Greinke 2.430 32 -36.7
2 Penn Murfee 2.419 0.2
2 Cody Stashak 2.415 3.3
2 Enyel De Los Santos 2.409 -3.8
2 Kyle Nelson 2.406 -1.3
2 Patrick Corbin 2.399 11 -59.2
2 Collin McHugh 2.395 2 -7.3
2 Zach Jackson 2.385 -0.8
2 Andrew Chafin 2.384 -4.1
2 Erik Swanson 2.383 -1.8
2 Taylor Rogers 2.383 100 4.8
2 Jordan Lyles 2.380 -26.5
2 Eli Morgan 2.379 -13
2 Tony Gonsolin 2.379 100 30.7
2 Brady Singer 2.379 5 27.2
2 Matt Strahm 2.378 7 -1.3
2 Andrew Heaney 2.374 82
2 Dylan Bundy 2.374 27 -57.4
2 Chris Paddack 2.369 2 -11.3
2 Trevor Stephan 2.369 2 -2.6
2 JT Chargois 2.363
2 Will Vest 2.358 2 1
2 Sam Selman 2.356 11.8
2 Jameson Taillon 2.351 100 -4.3
2 Eduardo Rodriguez 2.350 77 -25.2
2 Sandy Alcantara 2.339 100 1
2 Seranthony Dominguez 2.337 2 -1.5
2 Emmanuel Clase 2.336 100 1.8
2 Jhoan Duran 2.334 98 2.2
2 Alex Lange 2.334 -0.8
2 J.P. Feyereisen 2.333 16 6.8
2 Jimmy Herget 2.332 0.3
2 Mitch Keller 2.332 -51.2
2 Giovanny Gallegos 2.324 100 -3.4
2 Chad Kuhl 2.320 23 -25.7
2 Bryse Wilson 2.314 -50.2
2 Noah Syndergaard 2.311 100 -33.8
2 Anthony Bass 2.306 5 -0.2
2 Clay Holmes 2.302 100 6.4
2 Aaron Civale 2.301 30 -50.9
2 Josh Staumont 2.300 39 -2.5
2 Keegan Thompson 2.299 7 -14.5
2 Jake Odorizzi 2.297 2 50.5
2 Brad Keller 2.289 32 -26.2
2 Adam Wainwright 2.288 100 3.6
2 Liam Hendriks 2.287 100 2.4
2 Zach Davies 2.284 -12.1
2 Julian Merryweather 2.282 -8.3
2 Charlie Morton 2.282 100 -18.5
2 Cole Sands 2.266 -5.5
2 Daniel Hudson 2.266 5 -2.2
2 Edwin Diaz 2.261 100 4.7
2 Konnor Pilkington 2.257 -2.3
2 Craig Kimbrel 2.252 100 -0.5
2 Jakob Junis 2.249 9 -5
2 Jordan Hicks 2.242 14 -36.2
2 Connor Overton 2.238 4.9
2 A.J. Puk 2.234 5 3.1
2 Kendall Graveman 2.232 16 -6
2 Trevor Rogers 2.228 100 -16.5
2 Pierce Johnson 2.224 2
2 Rich Hill 2.224 7 -11.7
2 Dillon Peters 2.218 2 -4.3
2 Aaron Loup 2.216 -5.9
2 Kyle Bradish 2.206 2 -36.4
2 Sean Doolittle 2.206
2 Josiah Gray 2.204 89 -19.5
2 Bryan Baker 2.204 -5.9
2 Joely Rodriguez 2.194 -2.8
2 David Robertson 2.192 100 0.2
2 Tanner Rainey 2.191 89 -3.2
2 Brandon Hughes 2.191 -0.6
2 Reynaldo Lopez 2.187 2 -0.5
2 Austin Gomber 2.187 9 0.4
2 Rony Garcia 2.185 2.5
2 Dany Jimenez 2.179 100 2.5
2 Joel Kuhnel 2.176 -4.8
2 Duane Underwood Jr. 2.175 -3
2 Antonio Senzatela 2.171 -59.9
2 John Schreiber 2.169 2 2.9
2 Daniel Bard 2.167 100 -1.7
2 Phillips Valdez 2.148 -21.5
2 Jordan Romano 2.140 100 1.2
2 Cal Quantrill 2.137 41 -28.9
2 James Norwood 2.135 -5
2 Chris Martin 2.135 -3
2 Reid Detmers 2.134 30 10.2
2 Matt Foster 2.131 -4.8
2 Camilo Doval 2.126 100 0.9
2 Daniel Lynch 2.120 9 -19.4
2 Zach Plesac 2.119 36 -49.4
2 Rafael Montero 2.114 52 -2
2 Joan Adon 2.112 -63.4
2 Ranger Suarez 2.110 75 -9.9
2 Nick Martinez 2.108 5 -4.2
2 Yusei Kikuchi 2.094 98 -1.9
2 Tyler Wells 2.093 2 -21.7
2 Humberto Castellanos 2.087 -10.7
2 Erick Fedde 2.086 -19.5
2 Chad Green 2.082 9 -2.1
2 Mike Clevinger 2.077 100 -4.7
2 Michael Lorenzen 2.075 75 16.2
2 Jared Solomon 2.074 -1.3
2 Corey Knebel 2.064 100 -3
2 Seth Lugo 2.057 -3
2 Julio Urias 2.057 100 12.6
2 Johnny Cueto 2.057 2 34.8
2 Trevor Williams 2.056 -39.8
2 Sergio Romo 2.054 -3.6
2 Caleb Thielbar 2.054 -1.4
2 Chris Flexen 2.054 9 -42
2 Andres Munoz 2.053 18 -5.6
2 Joe Mantiply 2.052 9 -1.4
2 Brett Martin 2.031 -5.1
2 Corbin Martin 2.021 -14.2
2 Jake Walsh 2.016 -11.4
2 Taylor Hearn 2.015 -33.1
2 Vince Velasquez 2.015 -40.2
2 Nick Vespi 2.014 23.4
2 Chris Stratton 2.011 2 -3.6
2 Andrew Bellatti 2.008 -3.2
2 Amir Garrett 2.004 2 -6.2
2 Tim Mayza 2.002 0.4
2 Rowan Wick 2.001 39 -2.2
3 Josh Winder 1.999 27 -11.8
3 Kyle Barraclough 1.998 -1.9
3 Carlos Hernandez 1.996 5 -103.2
3 Paul Sewald 1.988 70 1.9
3 Dusten Knight 1.987
3 Jhon Romero 1.980
3 Sam Moll 1.979 -1.3
3 Tyler Kinley 1.967 -1.7
3 Hunter Greene 1.966 57 -51.4
3 Lucas Luetge 1.964 -10.1
3 Roansy Contreras 1.964 7
3 Jorge Lopez 1.963 100 1.8
3 Nathan Eovaldi 1.962 100 -34.1
3 Jose Alvarado 1.956 -10.8
3 Nabil Crismatt 1.953 5 0.7
3 Sonny Gray 1.946 100 0.6
3 Jalen Beeks 1.946 -4.1
3 Anderson Severino 1.944 -4.8
3 Griffin Jax 1.941 5
3 Ross Detwiler 1.939 -0.4
3 Raisel Iglesias 1.928 100 -1.2
3 Kyle Finnegan 1.924 2 -4.3
3 Michael Wacha 1.923 48 15.7
3 Drew Smyly 1.923 -56.6
3 Ryan Borucki 1.922 -6.5
3 Dallas Keuchel 1.919 -53.9
3 Joel Payamps 1.917 0.5
3 Zach Thompson 1.917 -18.9
3 Drew Smith 1.915 2 -3.3
3 Brusdar Graterol 1.912 -7.3
3 Jeff Hoffman 1.911 -3
3 Hunter Harvey 1.908
3 Craig Stammen 1.906 -3
3 Steven Okert 1.905 -2.8
3 Austin Davis 1.901 0.4
3 David Phelps 1.898 -5.5
3 Jose Berrios 1.895 100 -23.1
3 Cole Sulser 1.894 9 -4.2
3 Adam Cimber 1.892 36 -0.9
3 Garrett Cleavinger 1.892 -1.3
3 Madison Bumgarner 1.884 27 -7.8
3 Justin Lawrence 1.882 -10.6
3 Tanner Scott 1.878 -6.9
3 Cody Poteet 1.876 2.3
3 Davis Martin 1.875 -4
3 Dominic Leone 1.865 -3.3
3 Kyle Hendricks 1.862 73 -23
3 Tony Santillan 1.862 2 -5.6
3 Tyler Rogers 1.859 -6.5
3 Anthony Kay 1.857
3 Elieser Hernandez 1.856 14 -42.9
3 Steve Cishek 1.847 -7.2
3 Robert Dugger 1.847 -14.2
3 Joe Jimenez 1.846 -5.1
3 Brad Boxberger 1.832 -5.5
3 Blake Treinen 1.830 18
3 Adonis Medina 1.829 -26
3 Dillon Tate 1.829 2 -4.4
3 Alexis Diaz 1.828 14 -0.4
3 Michael Rucker 1.828 -5.4
3 Luis Cessa 1.827 -1.3
3 Lou Trivino 1.815 25 -7.9
3 Hoby Milner 1.809 -5.2
3 Jackson Stephens 1.809 -1.4
3 Ian Anderson 1.807 100 -13.9
3 Trevor Kelley 1.804 18
3 Jose Urquidy 1.801 -27.2
3 Jesse Chavez 1.793 -4.8
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martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Grey,

Would you start TB’s Springs at home against the Yankees?

Thanks!

0
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martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair,

1. Would you waive Jeffrey Springs of TB and pick up David Peterson of NY?

Or

2. Should I pick up David Peterson but keep Springs and look elsewhere?

Thanks!

Martin

1
Reply
everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

Peterson has some win upside and is the safe bet but Springs tends to go on hot streaks that could be lucky. So, it’s really a coin toss, but I’d lean Springs cuz of the Ks

0
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Mr. Hooper
Mr. Hooper
1 month ago

Seeing Tyler Mahle in the top tier amazes me, especially as I watch him labor through 50 pitches in two innings against the Cubs. I imagine the K/9 is what keeps his confidence score so high, but I wonder if he’s actually not very good. Gray mentioned him on the podcast, saying the homers in Cincinnati were part of the package, so I’m curious if there are other numbers that give you more reason to believe. You can only play the Pirates and Cubs so many times, and he unfortunately can’t pitch against his own team. I have him in 12-teamer facing a roster crunch and I’ve got him circled as the eventual drop. What’s your read on Tyler?

Thanks Blair. Good stuff as usual.

1
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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Mr. Hooper
1 month ago

Thanks Hoops! I miss being on the Basketball side.

I guess I don’t totally follow — Mahle has a 2.60 ERA over his past 3 starts, with 2 of them being quality starts. He’s allowed 3 HR on the year (0.63 HR/9, which is great) and 2 of those HR came on the road. So, not trying to mess around with the boss, but just saying, I’m not following the logic that Mahle is struggling right now. Sure we can play the strength of schedule game, but everybody pitches against the weak teams too, right? So for me, Mahle’s getting his boost from IP (because even rough luck SP can do well with big IP, and he’s still getting a big boost for an above average FIP and the ERA-FIP difference, which indicates he’ll likely do better soon for fantasy. Hope that helps!

1
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Mr. Hooper
Mr. Hooper
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Basketball misses you!

Appreciate your insights here. I think I was mostly reacting to watching him really have to work against the Cubs rather than taking a bit of a longer look at his recent successes. It’s been better than I gave it credit for. I remembered that he bombed against the Dodgers in April, and the season-long ratios have never looked good because of it. Having an ERA above 5 for more than a month really stuck in my head, so seeing the wheels come off (and 2 long balls in Cinci) sounded some alarm bells for me. I rolled him out there in a weekly league for the 2-start week and had pegged this one as the easier of the two. SF comes to town on Sunday, so I hope you’re right about things getting better soon.

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Pcolaprime
Pcolaprime
1 month ago

Blair,
Thoughts on Cease finishing the season as a top 10 ace?

1
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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Pcolaprime
1 month ago

I’m philosophically opposed to it because it means some of my opponents are right in their takes on him lol. But yeah, guy is lights out right now. It’s worthwhile to say, however, that Cease is known to be incredibly hot followed by periods of cooldown. Cease had at least 2 separate 7-game spans with a 5.15 ERA last year (still with 13+ K/9 and 11+ K/9, respectively), so we may be just experiencing a hot streak right now that’s followed by a cold streak. Fingers crossed!

0
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Mike
Mike
1 month ago

5×5 dynasty league

which pitcher would you rather have long term Jack Flaherty or Cristian Javier?

1
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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Mike
1 month ago

Javier right now because who knows what Flaherty looks like when he’s back — he effectively hasn’t pitched in a year.

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martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair,

Your advice is always helpful. I particularly appreciate your education and insight

How you handle Blackburn, Tyler Anderson and Cristian Javier?

I. Anderson’s next two starts are at Washington and AZ. I was going to start him in both places. Do you agree?

2. Javier’s next two starts are home against Cleveland and then on the road against Oakland. I was going to start him in both places. Do you agree?

3. This is harder for me. I was going to start Paul Blackburn on the road at Seattle and sit him at Houston. Do you agree?

4. I also picked up Dane Dunning. I was going to sit him at LAA and then start him at Oakland. Do you agree?

5. I also just picked up Nick Pivetta and was going to start him both on the road against the CHW and at home against Baltimore. Do you agree?

6. I do need sympathy: I just lost Mike Clevinger and Freddy Peralta to IL. I plan on keeping them on my roster. Thoughts?

Thanks for your patience with all these questions!!

Martin

1
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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  martinrostoker
1 month ago

I’m a little bit late here but your reasoning on all starts is sound. Dunning can be hit or miss and Pivetta seems to be hitting his stride, but don’t be surprised if they go back to their 2021 forms quickly. Yeah, keep Clev and Peralta on IL — I wouldn’t drop Peralta for the world!

0
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Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

My weekly question – Do you bias your results to reflect recent performance?

Other notes.
1) Surprised that King is still 0% rostered.
2) Hope you can add a team indication since “Roleless” guys are often not well known.

1
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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

Yeah the King thing might be because Rudy is searching “Mike King” in Fantrax (my assumption) — I noticed JKJ tagged that name and it popped up as “Michael King” in the Razzball system. Either way, the stats are right, but the ownership might be off. :)

I’ll try to get the teams in there next week — life was just coming at me pretty fast this week and I had to stick with the original table formulation.

Oh, and there’s a natural “recency” bias to my calculations because Rudy calculates more longitudinally. So, Rudy’s doing a proper prediction based on all available evidence, and I’m doing a “description” (wouldn’t call it a prediction) based on recent performance that’s more likely to affect the next month or so.

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Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Great. Thanks.

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LG Baseball
LG Baseball
1 month ago

EWB,

Love your articles and I’m all in on your system. I have Javier, Skubal, Nola, Perlata, Severino and Gallen for SPs and Holmes, Hendriks and Kimbrel for RPs.

I also have Cobb and wondering if you would swap him for King who was just dropped.

Thanks!
LG

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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  LG Baseball
1 month ago

Thanks for your support! For most leagues (that need a W/QS or SV), King may not provide those categories as optimally as Cobb. But, if you’re in a points league or just W, King could be superior. There’s always risk in any move, but at some point, the Yankees will have to make a decision about their guy who’s striking out 36% of batters — that’s elite and he can’t sit in a middle reliever role for long.

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Michael McMorrow
Michael McMorrow
1 month ago

Hi!

So, I’ve been trying all season to make use of your pitcher confidence system. It seems to tell me that I’ve got a fantastic staff. My pitching staff consists of seven Tier 1 pitchers (King, Cease, Javier, Giolito, Gallen, Verlander, Whitlock), two Tier 2 pitchers (Dominguez and Hicks), and one Tier 3 pitcher (Leone).

So all of my starters are on here, and two of my relievers – King and Dominguez. None of my other relievers are on the list at all. This includes Aroldis Chapman (who had been on the list), Ryan Tepera, Daniel Bard, Hansel Robles, and Aaron Bummer.

So my first question is this, is there something about the system that makes relievers inherently less valuable? I know that we’re looking at SP rankings, but lots of relievers are in here, including the guy at the top.

I’ll have other questions as well. I like the fact that your system is so high on my guys, particularly King, Cease and Javier, but I worry that I’m falling into confirmation bias with a system that I really don’t understand.

Anyhow, thanks a ton. I wanted to let you know I appreciate all the work you do on this.

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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Michael McMorrow
1 month ago

Thanks for the support! All we can do is look for confirmation bias. :)

In short, yes, I have an equation in the background that really damages most closers. Because the system is geared toward identifying starters first and foremost, and Roleless Robs secondary, relievers get jammed down. King maintains his status on top because he’s over the IP cutline for starters — that’s wild for a RP! But overall, this system should not be read as a recommendation for closers. Closers should be valued by their opportunity (i.e., their job security and their Team Wins) and their K/9 ability. (woof!)

Without giving away my formula, my rankings are based most heavily on K/9, which is the stat that becomes predictive the quickest and is also the most descriptive of fantasy success. It’s followed thereafter by FIP/WHIP/IP/true skill stats that are dependent upon whether the player is above or below status quo levels. Lastly, I do include a “should be better” factor in the equation to artificially bump up players who are currently “bad” but have true skill stats that are significantly better than their current fantasy stats. This way, users can still find new value before other fantasy managers/analysts catch on.

Hope that helps!

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Michael McMorrow
Michael McMorrow
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thanks. That’s really helpful information. I really try to base all my pitching decisions on K/9 and swinging K% where I can. There are guys with bad command that kill me for that, but when it’s right, its really right. I also like the Roleless Robs myself, because they’re generally free and provide huge K’s and ratios, and usually are just an injury or bad outing away from either starting or getting in leverage relief situations (my league uses sv+hld, so “closer” isn’t as meaningful as in a standard league).

As long as I’m bothering you, can I get your thoughts on either or both of Tanner Houck and Brock Burke? I’ve had both on my roster at various points, and I’m keeping an eye on them. Houck has had a few really bad outings, but he’s got a great arm. And I don’t know what’s new with Burke, but he seems like he’s gotten a lot better since he was last up in the bigs. Those K rates get my attention.

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everywhereblair
everywhereblair
Author
Reply to  Michael McMorrow
1 month ago

Houck’s always a great option and could stabilize into that “Scherzer Replacement” if Scherzer misses significant time. That said, Houck obviously didn’t get vaxxed and the Red Sox (who play the Blue Jays a bunch) are obviously not thrilled about having to take Houck in-and-out of the team every time they visit Canada.

Burke will be way more volatile — he’s obviously doing really well right now, but whereas King had previous MLB experience of being “OK/Good,” Burke is coming in fresh out of complete adequacy in AAA for the [checks notes] Rangers. So, new year, new vision board, new pitches — looks like Burke has gained a ton of velocity and wants to stay in the majors, but he’ll need to give us some more proof before being truly viable for long-term fantasy beyond 16-teamers. That said, definitely worth keeping an eye on and investing in dynasty — anybody who can pull off that kind of K-BB% even in small sample sizes is worth a dart throw.

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Michael McMorrow
Michael McMorrow
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Awesome stuff. One last thing (I promise!!). I’m debating dropping Hicks because if you can’t strike guys out with a 102-mph heater, you’re no good to me. I’m debating between holding, or dropping for either Jon Gray or Aaron Ashby. I drafted Gray and dropped him, but it looks like he’s got his velo back now. Also, it looks like Freddy Peralta is going to be sidelined a while. I’d guess Ashby gets picked up immediately if his next start (Wed at SD) is good, so I’d want to get ahead of it. So hold, Ashby, or Gray?

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