Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022: Week 12

I’ve been staring at the sun, wondering when the hydrogen will be exhausted and if I have enough time for my crypto 401K to return to profitability before we all end up in a black hole. Maybe that’ll put the current global milieu in perspective. Everything we own, all that we do, will turn to dust and ash as the sun enters a red giant phase and envelops the earth in its helium-fueled delirium. Maybe by then, I’ll understand the appeal of BTS. Maybe by then, pitchers will be predictable.

In the meantime, we keep rolling — you, me, the guy down the street. We roll week after week, thinking that we armchair astrologers of baseball have some sort of seance equipment that tells us — accurately — the future performance of a player. Yet every time I consult my crystal ball, all I hear is “variance.” Same as it was last year, same as it is this year. People forget Alec Mills and his 62MPH curveball was a top 20 pitcher through half of 2020. Last year’s #1 SP, Max Scherzer, had a 3.00 ERA / near 4.00 FIP through the first month, followed by a lackluster July where he had a 5.32 ERA and FIP (take that regression!) and a Robbie Ray-esque 2.3 HR/9. Again, this is the #1SP of 2021 and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Max Scherzer we’re talking about. Being a good fantasy pitcher isn’t about being good every day. Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt didn’t become A-listers by being perfect in every single role. Amazon — the company — didn’t make a profit for nearly a decade after its founding. Same thing goes for pitches — being status quo is fine, but aces just tend to perform a bit better when they’re successful. Which brings me to the ol’ quote that should hang above your fantasy mantle: Being a good fantasy pitcher, is about being a better pitcher than other pitchers more often than not. If every pitcher in the league has a 4.50 ERA, the pitcher with a 4.49 ERA is the best in that category.

This is why touts often say to completely block out the player’s name when considering who you should roster on your team — you don’t roster players, you roster stats.

Same goes with investments. Investor Bill Ackman lost over a billion dollars betting Herbalife — a nutritional supplement company with questionable health benefits and long considered a pyramid scheme — would collapse because it is a company with a poor outlook and business plan. In response, Carl Icahn bet on Herbalife not because it was a well-run company, but because its financial outlook looked nice. People like shakes. People like community. People like feeling fit in a community, potential liver damage be damned. In short, Ackman bet on the player, and Icahn bet on the stats. Icahn won the bet, pocketing over a billion dollars in gains as his position in Herbalife gained value.

DFS players will tell you similar stories: that utility man batting 4th in the Royals lineup on the Sunday day game who costs $5000 on DraftKings? That’s your play of the day. That pitcher going against the Tigers on the road? Yes, start them — doesn’t matter who it is. Start them. Got a guy who has 12 K/9 on your league waiver? Doesn’t matter who it is — roster them now. Because that guy was probably Spencer Strider, who is rostered everywhere now and is SP55 on the year and tied for the best per-inning performance rate in fantasy MLB. Who is Strider tied with? Jakob Junis. Hmmm. I told you to roster Junis back in the pre-season. He’s also back on the IL, much like everybody once 4th of July vacation comes around.

I think it’s worthwhile to post here the wisdom of Jonathan Bales, the Gambling Olympics gold medalist and founder of Fantasy Labs:

It’s worth pointing out here that an almost necessary consequence of playing games through the lens of hidden rules is that your approach will be contrarian, viewed as unorthodox and, very often, foolish by the majority of your peers. And guess what? Sometimes, your methods will be foolish. That’s a pill you’re going to have to swallow.

My buddy Jay Raynor was one of the best DFS players and didn’t even know the difference between a quarterback and a cornerback. He also was one of the first people to recognize the value of correlations in daily fantasy baseball, creating lineups that “stacked” a bunch of players from the same team to improve the lineups’ upside. He knew next to nothing about baseball, but discovered one incredibly profitable hidden rule others were overlooking just by approaching the game in a fresh way. He tried other strategies that didn’t work, but it didn’t matter; initially laughed at, Jay became one of the top DFS tournament players in the world.

In a world where there are 700 “starting” pitchers to choose from, it’s not who you know, but what you know.

I guess I’m back with a mission. I decided to end my Iron Man streak at Razzball after some 250ish articles without missing a submission date. I took myself out of the game in early June to get a bit of fresh air and manage some other things. Thanks to Hoove for stepping in during my absence and getting his whistle wet as a pitching ranker. Thanks to those of you who welcomed Hoove. I think it’s worthwhile to mention — this fantasy thing [waves arms around], it ain’t our day job. For most writers in the industry, it’s not even a paid job. People are staying up late at night and re-arranging time with their family to crank out player evaluations. I think commenters don’t always understand that 99.9% of fantasy industry isn’t here for the cash. In fact, even most of the touts are net negative in terms of career earnings — the CEO of Awesomeo posted his career winnings on Twitter last year and it was nearly a million in the hole! Analysts are here because, ostensibly, we like talking to you and helping your fantasy game. We’re not here purposefully trying to tank your team. We can tank our teams on our own, thank you very much.

Analysts all use the same data sources — it’s not like there’s a magical behind the scenes corner of FanGraphs or Savant that we analysts conjure into existence that gives us mystical insight into a player. What makes analysts valuable, if I may be so bold, is their willingness to point out the stats that other people are likely to disagree with, or the stats that aren’t yet obvious to the untrained eye.

I mean, here are the best fantasy players. It’s the Razzball Player Rater. It’s free. It’s linked at the top of the page. It’s been there since Battlestar Galactica was still running new shows on TV. If you want the actual top 100 SP, just filter by pitchers and have a nice day.

However, just like Alec Mills and his 62 MPH curveball doesn’t belong in the top 20 SP for the rest of the year, there are a bunch of SP at the top of the Player Rater who won’t be at the top for long [stares at Tony Gonsolin]. This is why analysts come out here to write — to provide some perspective on how to play the game of fantasy baseball in a way that will benefit the audience. Got a problem with Spencer Strider as Hoove’s #2? Well, guess what? I just let my Google Sheet auto-update for the first time in a month and Spencer Mutha-frackin Strider is SP1 on my sheet. Hoove may not have my “street cred” yet — that’s what I tell my wife I get paid in every week — but he sat down on short notice and figured out a great system to rank pitchers. Keep an eye on that guy — Hoove, that is.

As I say every week, the best thing I can do for your fantasy game isn’t to talk about pitchers. The best thing I can do for your fantasy game is to get you thinking differently about pitchers. So! Let’s see what’s out there in the pitching world as we head toward the long vacation weekend (apologies to my 2 readers in the UK).

News and Notes

Tony Gonsolin: Let’s start at the top, shall we? Much like Eminem in 8 Mile, Gonso’s been waiting for his moment for years. And now he’s ready / like mom’s spaghetti. Hey Pharrell, give me a call and we’ll make something happen! Gonsolin has always been an OK pitcher and a “great for fantasy…at his draft value” kind of guy. When you look at his combined stats, there’s nothing exciting: 8.43 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, and FIP/xFIP/SIERA over 2 points higher than his ERA. Oh, wait, it’s the 9-0 record that’s so sweet. Remember when Julio Urias finished as SP3 last year with 20 wins while also having an ERA/WHIP comparable to Robbie Ray and total Ks comparable to Freddy Peralta (who pitched 50 fewer innings)? Ah, memories. The thing about Wins, is that they’re unpredictable. This is why I include so many Roleless Robs in my rankings — Win vultures save your fantasy season. And that’s what Gonsolin is doing right now — vulturing wins. It’s the same way Adam Wainwright finished as a top 10 SP last year (17 wins, 7.59 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 3.05 ERA). At least Wainwright had pitched a high volume of innings [counts using fingers] nearly 10 times before in his career. Gonsolin? Gonsolin is 28 and hasn’t eclipsed 100 IP in a season since 2018, when he racked up a whopping 120 IP. If you’re going to be a W-heavy SP, you need IP. Last year’s W-based top SP — Julio Urias, Gerrit Cole, and Adam Wainwright — all broke the 180 IP mark. So, if you’re riding the Gonsolin wave right now, you’re best served by trading him. His true skill stats are twice as high as his ERA and his IP capability is questionable — if you expect him to finish as SP3 on the season, you’re gambling with long odds and relying on unpredictable contingencies.

Sandy Alcantara: Since I went on vacay, Alcantara lost that new found K glory. Yeah, I chose my friends over you, Sandy. 6.54 K/9 since June 8 is just so blah. What’s keeping him alive is that every hit is going straight into the ground — he’s got a launch angle of 1.5 degrees over that span with a 60% ground ball rate. Like, this is fantastic SP2 stuff for your DraftKings lineup. But for your season-long fantasy projects, it’s still screaming regression. His FIP is a point higher than his ERA and his xFIP/SIERA is 1.5 points higher than his ERA, while his swinging strike rate is below 10% since June 2. He’s a fastball pitcher that is quickly becoming more of a junkball pitcher, with changeups and sliders comprising over 50% of his pitches in June. Let’s put this in perspective: Alcantara threw 60% fastballs in 2020, and he’s down to 48% fastballs on the season in 2022. In the period from May 11-June 19, Alcantara threw 43% fastballs. So, we’re watching him succeed despite messing drastically with his pitch mix and striking out fewer and fewer batters. I’ve never been a fan of Alcantara as a fantasy asset compared to his draft cost, and the data demonstrates that his early 2022 success is more based on luck than on true skill. You’re free to ride the Alcantara train, but it’s worthwhile to note that even 2020 Marco Gonzales had more K/9 than 2022 Alcantara on his way to finishing as a top 10 SP. That’s…not saying much.

Spencer Strider: I take a little vacay and I return to this Spencer Strider mess. Guy gets tagged for 6 runs in 3 IP vs the Giants and suddenly it’s like the end of the world. Let’s do that silly table thing where we compare anonymous players:

And here’s the big reveal, brought to you by Ken Jeong! Player A is Gerrit Cole’s last 5 starts, and Player B is Spencer Strider over his last 5 starts (which are, bee-tee-dubya, the first starts of his MLB career). Gerrit Cole, 2022 consensus SP1 and ADP of 6th-8th overall, is currently SP10 according to the ol’ Player Rater. Meanwhile, Spencer Strider had unbelievable ratios as a Roleless Rob and is now doing his best to survive as a full-fledged starter. Freddy Peralta began this way, Corbin Burnes began this way (way to go Brewers!), and this is how Strider is starting. I’m not saying Strider is Herbalife, but when a starter maintains a 35%+ K rate with all the peripherals going in the right direction, that’s something you chase. I did a quick Google search and found “Spencer Strider Sell High” from a reputable source, so find that poor sap in your league who reads Rotoballer and get Strider on your team.

Ross Stripling: Speaking of people who delayed Tony Gonsolin’s arrival, Ross Stripling is back as a starter. Sure, he’s got a 6.1 K/9 since his return, but that’s not stopping you from starting Sandy Alcantara, is it? Rostered in 20% of leagues, give him a shot.

Jack Flaherty: I suppose I went on vacation such that Flaherty can return from the metaphorical grave. 3IP in each of his starts and more walks than Ks. He’s got the talent to be your top pitcher, in 2023. For 2022, avoid or bench (or DFS) until he strings together 3-4 usable starts.

Josiah Gray: Rostered in nearly all RCLs — what gives? He’s got negative value on the season in ERA/WHIP, and he’s got a 5+ BB/9 in his last 5 starts with a 5.48 FIP. He’s got a massive variance in his K/9, which makes him a DFS stud, but for regular fantasy baseballers, you don’t want what Gray’s offering right now. Or next month.

Cristian Javier: 13Ks in 7IP on his way to a combined no-hitter. There’s a reason I spent 40% of my FAAB on Javier in one of those industry leagues that I abandoned in late April. Since taking over a starter role, Javier has a nearly 12.5 K/9, a 2.41 ERA to 2.45 FIP, and he’s allowed 2 dingers in 37 IP. Works for me.

The Rankings