I love most things about playing fantasy baseball leagues, but I especially love the push/pull of short versus long-term outcomes. I play a lot of dynasty, keeper and redraft leagues of various shapes and sizes, so the range of values I might place on a prospect in a given league is wide.
Not here, though, where I’ll be going full cut-throat, win-the-money redraft style.
I don’t know why anyone will be cutting throats. I love that phrase, but yikes, what a thing to say in casual conversation, huh?
This list won’t turn out to be 100 percent accurate, but it will reflect many hours of trade talks, gameplay, research, roller coasters and centrifuges of thought, educated guesswork, and dash of the psychology motivating humans working within a nihilistic capitalist structure.
- Note: I wasn’t sure how to handle innings caps. Every pitcher got dinged a little for the purposes of this list because some/most organizations will be very conservative pushing pitchers from 30-something (or zero) innings up above 100 (or more).
Julio Rodriguez is a monster. Here he is swatting an easy blast the other day.
I moved Ian Anderson below Kelenic and J-Rod, partly because I love the Mariners’ bats, partly because Grey made a strong case in his Ian Anderson, 2021 Fantasy Outlook.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Where would Alec Bohm rank if he was eligible? Thanks
You cut my comments? What’s up with that? Arozarena hadn’t slowed down. You should be feeling good not cutting my posts!
Nah, dude, I never delete comments.
They’re still where they were: https://razzball.com/top-50-prospects-for-2021-redraft-fantasy-baseball-leagues/
Can’t wait to check in next October.
@The Itch: Whats your take on that decision to pull Snell last night at 73 pitches? I’m a Giants fan and pulling for Rays with great emotional investment, but the moment Cash pulled the plug on Snell i knew it was all over.
Then Justin Turner running all over hugging people and shaking hands after a mid-game Covid diagnosis…wtf??!
Yeah that’s how it felt to me, too.
When I saw Snell was giving them a Cy Young start and keeping his pitch count down, I thought he might go the distance, or at least past the sixth. Very bummed.
Turner should carry a suspension into 2021, imo.
Yeah i just read an Eno Sarris piece for the Athletic breaking down Snell’s numbers, numbers for ace pitchers going through the order the third time through, etc etc etc, and making the case that pulling Snell was a move backed up by all the right analytics BUT that the error was in going to Anderson instead of Castillo when Anderson’s performance level has been way down this year. I.e. go with your best bullpen but arm, but Anderson isnt that.
Given his metrics focus im sure Sarris’ logic all checks out. But having watched Bruce Bochy manage his way to three championships in 5 years based on feel, on reading the situation using a fair amount of intuition or knowing his players or what you want to call it, ill definitely take the latter. It just felt all wrong pulling him.
100% agreed on J.T. A hefty suspension!
Glad i flipped his ass for Luis Matos!
Well i have to be grateful for your yapping here about deleted posts that didnt get deleted since it provided me a trail of breadcrumbs to go read the exchange on the other list…that was good comedy. Imagine jumping all over a writer’s list of prospects for a redraft league and blowing your top because its not a list for dynasty! Lol.
I stumbled into owning Arozarena in my dynasty without realizing the extent of what i was getting. However his career ends up looking compared to Lou Bob or whoever else im pretty excited to watch it play out.
Haha you’re welcome.
I can’t fathom the level of whatever it is that would make Harley think I’d delete that.
To be clear, i was talking about him yapping, not you!
This is a great list for dynasty when you are ready to win now. I dominated a 16 team league ( lost in a tiebreaker in final) and I’m Not touching any teenagers for next year
I think that’s a great way to apply this list!
Nice list as usual!
Like seeing both T Stephenson and Kiebert Ruiz on here. Curious to hear what you think their playing time looks like. Think either takes the starting job/when?
Thanks, Prawn Lord!
I think Stephenson takes that job fairly early–or I should say takes a 60/40 share.
Much trickier with Ruiz. I might have him a bit too high here given how many contenders they have for the catcher spot, but he’s shown he can help us when he does get the chance.
Top work Itchy, thanks for keeping us equipped through this mess of a year.
Dynasty league I’m flush with SS’s and was offered Devers for Franco and small change. I’m 3B thin but whatever.
Yay or nay?
Trade the other SS’s and wait for Wander to cement your three peat…
Yeah I agree with Sporto.
I’d struggle to move Wander at the moment. Maybe you can pick off a cheap 3B along the way.
Great work as always Itch. And the garnish of anticapitalist rhetoric in the margins deserves a chef’s kiss.
As you might recall, towards the end of the year last season in my 30 team dynasty i traded Brad Miller and Taijuan Walker for Puason and Arozarena. As such, its been rather a wild ride watching this post season and the legend of Randy be told. Holy smokes!
Curious why you have Brujan (relatively) low down at 27 as i know you are pretty high on the guy from previous posts. Is that just where you put his potential production or is it due to potentially not getting the call til later in the season?
My rebuilding team has Arozarena, Sixto, Vaughn, Bart, Brujan, Adell, Waters, etc so im hoping for some early callups!
Thanks Moon Shots : )
That trade looks pretty awesome today! As does the build as a whole!
Yeah you nailed it RE Brujan. I love buying Rays players in dynasty, but they’re often tricky in redraft leagues.
Hey Itch. Solid info as always. Do you think Moniak ever lives up to the top overall pick?
I guess that depends where you put the bar. I do think he’ll be a useful piece for the big league club, but it does still seem like a stretch that anyone will give them major credit for making the pick.
Itch, you have SWR about the 30th SP on the list. Do you think he makes the show this year? Does he have the topside to be a top-10 SP going into 2022?
Yes to both.
Assuming you mean top ten pitching prospect, I mean.
Love this list! It’s obvious you put in ton of time and effort giving us a great stable of players to research and follow.
I know you feel it’s a bit premature in KC with Mondy entrenched at SS, but Bobby Witt Jr. could easily slide over to 2B (for N. Lopez), or possibly some 3B. Future top of the order stick could come quick.
Thanks for all your hard work Itch!
I think the Royals are entering what should be an excellent stretch for them.
Not a fan of Matt Manning?
I might be overreacting to the forearm strain that ended his 2020 season.
Tigers are going the rehab route over surgery, which often leads to TJ in the end anyway–just makes him wait a little longer for it.
What about Royce Lewis Twins i thought he was a stud?
I wouldn’t bet on him for redraft leagues in 2021.
But I’ve been comparatively low on him throughout.
no Kristian robinson?
Nah it’s a redraft 2021 list, and he’s got a ways to go.
Spencer tork this yr!!! Where is he #4
Yeah I struggled a while with where to put Tork and just spaced on finalizing a spot for him.
He’s on here now tho, and he keeps sliding up despite my suspicion that he’ll have to smash the minors to get promoted by July, which is probably just what he’ll do.
I’m reticent to put Lodolo on the list because I think they’ll slow roll him, given he’s only thrown 7 innings in A ball and wasn’t the best delivery repeater last we saw him.
Thanks for the (double) heads up on him!! I had him on the stash list several times during 2020 but kept forgetting to find a fit for him here. (Not a good look for my brain.)