The Blue Jays are exciting my nethers, or maybe that’s the extra bleach I’ve been cleaning my underwears in. Yo, you can’t be too careful. Corona coming for me? Bring it on, you pandemic bastard. I’m Kung Fu Fightin’ that shizz with bleach, karate chops and tricks. Excuse me, not tricks, but allusions. Yesterday, I walked my dog Ted while doing The Robot, because the virus doesn’t stick to metal. *points to brain* Smart. Last year Teoscar Hernandez hit 26 homers and stole six bags in only 125 games. Okay, right now, 125 games sounds like the full season plus the playoffs, but you get the picture. Teoscar Hernandez going 26/6 in five months is completely overlooked or nah? Because I’m going with completely overlooked like Julia Garner in The Americans just waiting for her Ruthie role. Can we all bless Ruthie for this line:

Bless her, I demand you! Now I know what it’s like to be a rich old man, because I am crushing on a younger woman. Old was my thing, but Ruthie has changed me. So, what can we expect from Teoscar Hernandez for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a great dart throw?

The crack against Teoscar is he can’t recognize a pitch and goes “WHEEEEE!” while swinging at everything. Okay, counterpoint:  If he qualified last year, he would’ve had a top 50 walk rate, the same as Joc Pederson and a tad better than Jose Ramirez and a tad worse than Manny Machado. Of course, Teoscar’s major strike is, uh, strikeouts. Last year, his strikeout rate was 33% and the year before it was 31.2%. Sliders really ate him up. “Turnabout is fair play,” says Miguel Sano. But when Teoscar makes contact — bang, zoom. He was 74th for barrels per PA with Rafael Devers and Yasmani Grandal, and he was 35th in the league with Exit Velocity of 91.1 MPH with Eloy Jimenez and Hunter Dozier. His Launch Angle was 15.5 with Jorge Soler and Ozzie Albies. His Hard Hit percentage was 42.3% with Freddie Freeman. What I take away from this while eating takeaway because restaurants no longer exist is Teoscar Hernandez is a beast if he gets lucky with BABIP in a small sample size. Ah, there’s my point after a few counterpoints. In a small sample, Teoscar can go hashtag beastmode and never have those Ks affect his bottom line. An example from the real world:  Teoscar hit .261 in 2017 with an awful strikeout rate (37.9%) but slightly lucky BABIP (.333). If he’s hitting the ball hard in only 100 games, he could sneak into a top 40 outfielder season. In these shortened season scenarios, I’m finding myself moved by these guys who are exposed over a long season, because, guess what, there won’t be a long season to expose them. I haven’t adjusted my 2020 fantasy baseball rankings for Teoscar, but the late dart throw goes to…Teoscar! Wait, I have that backwards. The Teoscar goes to… By the way, the Oscars have a rule that a movie has to appear in the theaters to be eligible for Best Picture. Your 2020 Best Picture winner…Sonic the Hedgehog!

 
  1. 183414 says:
    (link)

    P.T. always a concern with a high k%, so he best get off to a good start. As long as b.avg. is a cat, I think you have to temper your excitement. I’d say a Sunday Santana with less job security.
    But definitely a dart throw. With a bench of 7, how many dart throws do we want on the bench. In a short season, I’d set the over/under at 2. 1 for a pitcher and 1 for a hitter. Just can’t be sitting with a prospect or 2 w/out a starting job, in addition.

    • Swaggerjackers says:
      (link)

      I’m not convinced Santana has that much job security. The Indians have 6 different guys capable of playing in the outfield to start the season. Most aren’t particularly good but Francona likes to sub guys out and play matchups. Naquin and Zimmer coming back will further complicate that outfield.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I think Domingo and Teoscar are about same for job security

        • 183414 says:
          (link)

          Not entirely. Teoscar is even worse in the o.f.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Who else is going out there?

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              ya boy Derek Fisher? haha

              Drury? Yeah, it’s not great.

              Vlad should be DH’ing sooner rather than later anyways.

              But love the “Teoscar goes to…” line, haha. Agree this is one is worth a stab!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Thanks! Shortest Baby Seal comments ever today, BOOOOOO!

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  HAHA! I will make up w/ quantity!

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    You better, bs

      • 183414 says:
        (link)

        I agree. Didn’t say Domingo had a lot of job security. Think he’s also a dart in a 12 teamer.

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          Makes sense!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      It’s a late dart throw, bruh.

      • swaggerjackers says:
        (link)

        I’m not questioning the dart throw status Teoscar. Just pointing out that if we’re comparing him to Santana, Domingo might also be more of a dart throw himself given his outfield shituation (especially in weekly fomats).

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          I was responding to Alex Jones.

          • swaggerjackers says:
            (link)

            Okay, I see it now. These nesting comments are harder to follow on my phone compared to my laptop. Speaking of which….

            @grey: Have you and Rudy ever given any thought to using Disqus for commenting? It has some pretty nice features beyond what Razz currently uses.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I can ping Rudy on it — not sure what it is

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Looks like it’ll cost us nearly $100/month and what we have now is free…We should have a bug fix later today, hopefully that does trick

              • swaggerjackers says:
                (link)

                Free is hard to beat.

                Giving people’s comments a Thumbs Up or Thumbs Down is fun though. It also has a much more built out version of user profiles so you can also see a running list of comments from people in the profiles and stuff like that. Pretty cool.

                But not free :(

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I added a thumbs up feature a few years ago and people booed me

                  • Cram It says:
                    (link)

                    That was my idea! I remember you tried it. I don’t why people didn’t like it. It’s a lot easier to get a bigger sample size to a question that is asked. Well, for those that ask normal questions.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Would be easier for me — rather than saying I agree, I could just thumbs up — if it showed who was thumbing up

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    What reasons did ppl give for booing?

                    Sometimes ppl boo just for fun!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I am booing my neighbors right now for fun

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      haha

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                $100/month for THAT garbage??!?!??!!! WOW!

                News to me — learned something new today!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, blech

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    Maybe worth it if it were like $5 or $10/month.

                    That doesn’t make any sense!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I know, I thought it was a typo too

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      I have to imagine that is more expensive, or similar, to your other hosting fees, no?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Hosting? It costs about $750/month to host server etc

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, that’s what I meant. Thanks for the info!

              • Dave D says:
                (link)

                This is possibly the worst idea Ive ever posted here. Disqus blows and it would completely ruin what you have going here at Razzball.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  It’s too much $$$ per month anyway, it’s not happening

                • SwaggerJackers says:
                  (link)

                  How would it ruin Razzball?

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    It’s not happening due to the monthly price

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            lol, pretty sure he said he was behind it, no?

            “definitely a dart throw”

          • LOLmets says:
            (link)

            Responding to Alex Jones lol. Cram is such a tool. He’s Alex Jones becasue he thinks objectively instead of just swallowing everything the media says? Cram you sheep.

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep

            • Dave D says:
              (link)

              Cram wants all his meals pre-made and with lots of preservatives I believe.

              • 183414 says:
                (link)

                Haha.

            • 183414 says:
              (link)

              I take it as a compliment, from a hateful , myopic sheep.
              He’s a tool who also sucks at fantasy baseball.
              But thanks for the b/up. Not that I’d ever need it from a group thinking lefty.

            • 183414 says:
              (link)

              I’ve actually never listened to Alex Jones, but if he’s been banned by Googoo, Twitter, Facebot, You Tube, Bezos, Apple, and msm, then he must be a free thinking individualist v. Collective, globalist power hungry azzwipes !!!
              I’ve always preferred free will v. Politically correct woke dogma.
              These yokels live on projecting their fascist hate on to others. Never embraced it, even as a child. Group thinking, pompous, smug and lying pissants.

              • LOLmets says:
                (link)

                I <3 183414

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                HAHA

        • 183414 says:
          (link)

          He is, in a 12 teamer.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Not bad in either tho

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t want a full bench of darts — giving multiple guys for options — I wouldn’t say you should grab all of these guys

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        DRAFT TEOSCAR IN THE 1ST OR YOU’RE A SCARED LITTLE BITCH!

        hahahaha

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Wow, was thinking the 2nd round, but I’ve been peer pressured into being more aggressive

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Seriously!

            You’re getting old, old man!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, well, no dur

  2. Member Berries says:
    (link)

    Parasite already won 2020 best picture… although a 2 hour cut of The Irishman should have won or even 1917 or Batman driving a ford.

    I want to hear about the new schmohawks aka worst shape of my life because I have no discipline during quarantine candidates. Sano? King Felix losing his once earned rotation spot? 300lbs Ryu ? Muncy? Jose Ramirez? Sabathia will be throwing cheddar!

    Reminds me of Shawn Kemp but the NBA confuses Grey

    @BabySeal – regarding my cool story yesterday, I flipped Pearson and Rhys fof Albies and a pick and in another league flipped Pearson and a late pick for Mercado and Willie Calhoun

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You didn’t like Parasite? We’re even, I didn’t like 1917 or the Irishman

      Sano is down to 247 pounds (in just one leg)

      Every player is coming out of quarantine like Shawn Kemp

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        1917 was pretty forgettable.

        Do you do horror movies? I’ve been trying to find one that legit scares me to the point that I can’t fall asleep, and I haven’t accomplished that yet with the ones on people’s “scariest movies” list.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I don’t do horror — I didn’t get 1917 at all, those one-shot takes are so phony, clearly they’re not doing it in one shot so I’m constantly looking for edits

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            Don’t like being scared? It lets you know you’re alive!

            Ha. I was doing the same thing. Like “oh that was an obvious spot for a ‘cut””.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah…Ooh, character went into a cave, so when screen went to black, there was a cut!

              I hate scary movies, I don’t like being scared at all… Shizz freaks me out

              • Cram It says:
                (link)

                All sunshine and rainbows and….BOO!

        • William Hung says:
          (link)

          I don’t know why but those Final Destination movies always shook me for a little bit

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I saw them, are they scary? They seemed more ridiculous (in a good way)

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              Not really, maybe when it first came out and I was young… but it’s fine. A bit goofy at times — an easy watch

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, I was younger when they came out too, because the movies are old

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  Oh, not because you’re old?

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Haha, no! I am very youngish!

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            I like that stuff over slashers and gorefests and possessed dolls.

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
              (link)

              Cram, check out Hush.

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
              (link)

              Cram, Check out, Hush

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              Yeah, I liked those for the most part too

      • Member Berries says:
        (link)

        I thought the Irishman could be great if they trimmed the fat – Batman racing a ford was pretty solid.

        I wouldnt classify Parasite as a horror movie . I like the remake of It and of course, The Exorcist still scares me. Grew up in a family that loves horror movie, so i’ve seen most. I recall Grey being scared of Hereditary (2018) but I didnt like it.

        Ozark season 3 is the best thing i’ve seen in 2020. You catch Ruthie in Waco? Riggins is a rockstar, TEXAS FOREVER

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That’s like saying, Sopranos finale would’ve been great if they trimmed the last five minutes — maybe, but who knows

          Parasite isn’t horror at all, Hereditary is horror and I was scared to bejeezus

          Yeah, Waco was Whack-tho

  3. 183414 says:
    (link)

    I should add, a lot more appealing, and less of a dart, in a 15 teamer.

    • You stole my thunder lol. I have him as my 160th hitter in a 15 teamed despite a BA of .230

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, depends on the league, but prolly around same draft spot tho

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Just not worth it there — I’d go for more stability in a 15 there…

        One thing I plan to work on next year — while the DCs were AWESOME — got a chance to learn the player pool like never before, feel for ADP, get a chance to win $, etc…. I need to really dig into the 12-teams more after I’m done w/ those.

        I did take a 2-week break or whatever, but that was more to reset and focus on other things. I should use that time next year to shift mindset from 50 round, 15-team DC, to 12-team w/ waivers… big difference!

        Otherwise, really happy w/ out draft prep went this year. Can’t wait to build on top of that for 202…7?

        haha

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          really happy w/ how* draft prep

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I think it was helpful to do a DC in December before everything was set in stone to learn deep assets…You should do it too

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Yeah, I will likely be more active around that time than I was this year.

            I have enough knowledge to do it now. Previously, I had to lean on your ranks as my initial pass through the player pool, as a sort of short cut.

            I’ll still obviously do that, but it won’t be as much of a crutch for me going forward as it was in Jan this year!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, that’s the good thing about a Dec. draft, there’s nothing to lean on so you have to figure out guys on your own

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                Yep, maybe do some bargain shopping!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I love being frugal!

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    Well, I’ve heard that you may be Jewish… so that would make sense if true. haha

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha

  4. galica says:
    (link)

    Grey!!!!

    Awesome dart throw report!!

    a. So in a 5X5 RCL who do you like more for this season?

    1. Miguel Andujar (drafted already in my U)
    2. Teoscar Hernandez

    I’m concerned that once the season starts Andujar won’t have anywhere to play (I also have Urshela and Stanton in that same league, don’t know why it’s the first time I’ve rostered even ONE Yankee let alone two and now three!!) ’cause everyone will be healthy and ready to go. My concern again…11 players for 9 positions!

    b. Imagine this…Andre Dawson as the mortician wearing a mask and gloves at the funeral home he owns in Miami. Got that image in your head? Good. Me too.

    c. Have a nice weekend.

    d. MLB quote of the day for April 22, 1978

    ‘If you approach Billy Martin right, he’s okay. I avoid him altogether.’

    Ronald ‘Ron’ Ames Guidry, aka ‘Louisiana Lightning’ and ‘Gator’. His 25-3, 248K, 1.74 ERA 1978 season is cited as the all-time best season by a Yankees pitcher.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      Andujar for me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

      A. Hmm…I guess Andujar, but I think it’s close

      B. HAHA, WUT?!

      C. You too!

      D. Haha, Billy Martin was the best (worst)

    • Jolt In Flow says:
      (link)

      2018 as a rookie:
      573 AB, 83 R, 27 HR, 92 RBI, .297 AVG, 2 SB

      Come on man, how are the Yankees keeping a non-injured version of that out of the lineup?

      If you make a decision on who to keep, make it based on something other than comparing them. Andujar will get regular playing time. He’s too good not to be in the lineup. Find a spot for Teoscar too. Cut someone else.

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Bless Ruthie! Cause known of us knows shit about fuck at this moment in time.

    • zombie says:
      (link)

      Agreed. Thought I knew shit about fuck. Not so much anymore.

      • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
        (link)

        I could give a fuck about shit……………..

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        You actually might know, Zombie, but not know you know, ya know?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bless her!

      • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
        (link)

        Who is Ruthie anyway?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          She’s on Ozark

          • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
            (link)

            Thanks …………i don’t get alot of the Nflix references guess i need to watch more TV!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Watch Ozark!

              • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
                (link)

                thx i’ll check it out

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  No problem

            • 183414 says:
              (link)

              Not really. I’ve never watched less tv in my entire life. Happier for it.

  6. BBHHI says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    AL-Only 10 team, 5×5 Roto league:

    Trade Adjudication:

    Nick Anderson $8 or Lance McCullers $3

    Which side do you like better?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      Depends, do you need a closer or an SP?

      • BBHHI says:
        (link)

        Keeper choice.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          McCullers

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            McCullers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      McCullers

    • 183414 says:
      (link)

      Anderson.

  7. I want to see a version of the Babe movie where Ruth from Ozark plays Babe Ruth:

    Are you f***in’ talking sh*t about me when I am trying to f***in’ hit in the motherf****in’ World Series?

    Yeah I am pointing where I’m gonna hit the f***in’ ball off of you. I am using the same fingers I am going to shove…..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HAHA

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      BRILLIANT, Rudy!

    • zombie says:
      (link)

      She could do it. Helluvan actress. She is from the Bronx. So not that much of a stretch.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Bronx, baby!

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        What a great accent she does. Not a Bronx one at all. lol Ruthie is so good!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ruthie is GOAT

        • The actress is legit from Riverdale in the Bronx. Those of us from there are damn proud. Miss Ruthie though has a dialect all her own, and the creative vocab to go with it. Ante could use her f’in quotes to get us through the abbreviated season!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Ruthie!

  8. hot corner says:
    (link)

    I took a late flyer on Teoscar just about everywhere this year. K’s are a problem, but the power is real. One point that you missed is that he had 94th percentile sprint speed last year. It may not translate to being a big SB threat, but should keep his BABIP north of .300.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, and Ks might not matter in a short season and BABIP might play high

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      Nice comment!

  9. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    How many times did you almost (or did) drop Teoscar last year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Maybe twice a day for 4 months?

  10. Hater Bell

    Grey Albright says:
    (link)

    test

      • Hater Bell

        Grey Albright says:
        (link)

        test1

    • Coolwhip

      Coolwhip says:
      (link)

      yep back on

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Thanks!

    • swaggerjackers says:
      (link)

      see it

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Thanks!

  11. Matty says:
    (link)

    Just getting into Ozark now. Ruth is such a good character.
    I’m about five rounds into my five owner/ ten team/ one AL only one NL only per owner league now.
    It’s tough to draft in a league this small, even while constrained by it being essentially a five team NL only and five team AL only. There are so many shortstops that I want.
    My AL team is currently Lindor/ Rendon/ Olson/ Adalberto and my NL team is currently Bellinger/ Story/ Turner/ Alonso/ Baez.
    I definitely didn’t need Baez but liked him better than the other options and figured most of the other guys I liked would still be there in the coming rounds.
    Not asking any questions. Just throwing this out there so you can touch the screen with a Mondesi team (top 100 post callback).
    Have a great weekend everyone.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ruthie is the best!

      Haha, you too!

  12. baby seal says:
    (link)

    Too bad I took Teoscar in the best ball before you!!! Hahaha

    How did you like our convo yesterday? I know I wrote a lot, but hope you enjoyed it and maybe learned a thing or two. Was a pleasure for me.

    Had one follow up from that. You said that you thought there was a lot of overlap / parallels between stocks/investing and fantasy baseball. I don’t disagree. You mind explaining your thoughts on that a bit more please? Really just asking out of curiosity. Thanks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I love that stuff from yesterday, I’m actively pursuing knowledge all the time…Can’t say I always retain it — buy low/sell high, no? Sneaky late picks/penny stocks, no?

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
        (link)

        Player’s stock rising and falling. Hell, Son even has a bear and bull column. ;-)

        Then there’s investing in prospects/young players (futures market) in dynasty before they have accelerated growth curves and reaping the benefits (Pearson *wink*) then selling before the declining skills.

        footnote: @BS i just sold off 1/2 of the Amazon shares yday that I bought when lockdown was annouced… Yahtzee!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, Bear/Bull, my dude, Bear/Bull

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
            (link)

            the waiver wire is like an Ameritrade account ;-) pick up guys as stock/performance/pt is rising, and drop them when they are slumping/lose the closer gig etc haha.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha, fantasy baseball is like my Charles Schwab account — when it’s good, I show everyone, when it’s bad, I pretend it doesn’t exist

              • Coolwhip

                Coolwhip says:
                (link)

                hahaha

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha, otter disbelief

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  You Otter Know

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  Your Otta Be Kiddin’ Me!

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    *Otter? lol, baby seal now scared AF of OTTERS!

                    Never thought Razzball would use my deepest fears against me. Thought this was my Safe Space!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      HA, sorry, baby seal, Otters are our overseers tho

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Don’t you mean they are our *Otterseers? haha

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                hahaha, so good!!

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              Yep, I think about the team as a portfolio, waiver wire is like the available stocks out there

              The players are like different stocks w/ various investment profile returns. High risk / high reward. Players who impact different categories are like stocks in different sectors.

              Then all your teams are like managing a hedge fund of portfolio managers. You want to manage risk across the portfolio. It’s OK to have AAPL (Bieber, ;-) haha) in various places, but you don’t want to have too much, e.g. Darvish (as a random example).

              Drafting is more like ECON. All about Game Theory. I often think about Nash Equilibrium, Prisoner’s Dilemma, etc. when I am planning my drafts.

              There certainly isn’t a 1:1 correlation with those ideas, but the concepts are really useful!

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          Wow, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then!! ;-)

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Great to hear!!! I’ll keep it in mind for the future. :-)

        Yes, of course, those are the obvious ones!!

        I like to think about the mental / behavioral side even more than the obvious technical overlaps. The first finance/econ book I ever read was, “Predictably Irrational,” in the summer before my AP ECON class in prep school.

        I was pretty much hooked ever since. I think it was a HUGE advantage to get introduced to the topic by first looking at the types of biases people make.

        Really can’t thank my teacher enough for that. Dan Ariely is an absolute legend. Try to read everything he’s ever written.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ooh, I’ll have to check that book out, don’t think I’ve read it… I do often show people my Alan Greenspan book as the worst book I’ve ever read

  13. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    Teoscar is such an odd name. I wonder if he used to go around calling himself “The” Oscar Hernandez like he was an Ohio State alum and people just misheard him. Or thought it was so douchey that they just smooshed it together.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hahaha

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      Going w/ the latter! haha, good one!

  14. krazyivan says:
    (link)

    Why doesn’t Teoscar steal more bases? Does he not lead off first base? He has really good speed and doesn’t utilize it.

    Would you rather take a dart throw on Wander or Teoscar?

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      Teoscar, 100%!!

      You should have plenty of time to figure out Wander when the time comes around.

      He’s never played above high-A ball… and the Rays are notoriously stingy / slow cook the crap out of their prospects… just realize what the risk profile is w/ him.

      Don’t think he should be owned in 12s.

      Teoscar has an everyday job, TODAY. If he sucks, you could just pickup Wander if you so desire!

      MAYBE Wander works if you have deep benches. He’s not ownable in an RCL, IMO…

      While you sit on Wander for weeks and weeks, someone else is taking a stab at finding the next Giolito, or getting extra ABs from a Braun or Teoscar. You may find yourself falling behind faster than you realize.

      Cheers

  15. TC says:
    (link)

    Thoughts on Corbin Burnes? Read a few articles about how his “stuff” is pretty electric and spin rates are really good. Had LASIK, and seemed to realize he had to work on using those rates much more to his advantage. Looked pretty good this spring, although it means nothing, but wasn’t sure if you saw something with him where he could grab that 5th rotation spot and surprise some people. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, he’s a guy I might go over in the near-future depending on how long we pandemic for

      • TC says:
        (link)

        Ok, thanks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

    • 183414 says:
      (link)

      Could be Burned. Think Freddy get’s the 1st shot. Invested some cash on Freddy..

      • 183414 says:
        (link)

        Typed Burnes.

  16. Teoscar could sneak up if he starts hot – finished 2019 season going 7 for 17 with 3 HR 6 RBI. PT in CF should be there….worth a shot
    Back in November 15 teamer took Teo as my OF5 – like him late
    Happy May Day Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Happy May Day Smitty! Be well, man!

  17. Shallow League Decisions says:
    (link)

    I’m in a very shallow 6-team league. One owner wants to give me J-Ram for T. Bauer. IDK if I really need J-Ram and who knows what version of him will show up when they play. He was at least hitting well in spring before it was called off. I also don’t know about giving up Bauer’s K’s and QS without replacing him with another pitcher.

    Who would be the better replacement for Bauer to trade for to make up lost K and QS – Lynn or Castillo? Even though Castillo is ranked higher by most, I think Lynn would be the more steady performer if his approach from last year is sustainable. Castillo has control and consistency issues with the fastball.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Castillo

      • thehombre says:
        (link)

        seen it

        • Shallow League Decisions says:
          (link)

          Seen it???

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Castillo

            • Shallow League Decisions says:
              (link)

              Who would you rather have in a shortened season for counting stats (k, QS) and ratios Castillo or Bauer?

              BTW, thanks for all you do continuing to post articles and answer our questions while we wander in the desert waiting for the promised land that is baseball.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Castillo — No problem!

  18. Shallow League Decisions says:
    (link)

    I apologize if this post is repeated. I didn’t see it take the first time.

    If I traded T. Bauer for a bat and wanted a replacement for the lost K’s and QS do I go for Lynn or Castillo? I feel Lynn is the more steady choice and if his approach from last year is mostly sustainable, I kind of like him over Castillo though most experts rank Castillo higher. Castillo has control issues with his fastball.

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      It really depends on the cost, right?

      Castillo has the best changeup in baseball, an elite fastball, and he’s continuing to work on the slide piece. He will have an elite K rate, and with any small command improvements, he has a legit shot to compete for a top-5 overall pitcher this year.

      Castillo’s NFBC ADP is around the 40-range, while Lynn’s is around the 120-range.

      So the cost should be a huge difference! If that’s not the case, Castillo is a slam dunk!

      With that being said, assuming some normal price difference between the two, and knowing you are trading Bauer already, then Lynn might be the better choice. IMO, he should be going around the same ADP as Bauer (80-90 range). I would take Lynn over Bauer straight up.

      Velocity and command improvements. The cuter was nasty. Difficult to hit fastballs, like Lynn showed in 2019, tend to be very sticky/reliable y/y. He will also give you nice Ks. Lynn is a steal this year, IMO. Nice ballpark upgrade. Goes deep into games. Was top-10 (or close to it) in number of pitches thrown per start last year. There’s a lot to like there!

      • Shallow League Decisions says:
        (link)

        Great points. Thx.

        That’s the better way to look at it – Lynn or Bauer straight up. If I can move Bauer for a a really good bat and Lynn can be had for cheap and his production would be near equal to Bauer it helps me pull the trigger on the deal I was offered for Bauer.

        Lynn has had only one season with an ERA 4+. I was more concerned about his WHIP with it historically being high. The questions is does his approach stick and results are similar to 2019.

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          Yep, of course that’s the question, hence the ADP discount.

          Let me know if you want any other advice, if there’s a trade or if that was a keeper question and you’re just prepping for the draft… happy to help!

          You caught my drift. Lynn is approximately the same value as Bauer, but going a good amount later. Good luck!

          • Shallow League Decisions says:
            (link)

            Using the trade analyzer, Rudy’s projections show QS and K’s are the same between Lynn and Castillo with Lynn’s ERA and WHIP a tad lower and in line with his 2019 season.

            Steamer projections on Fangraphs are in the reverse with Castillo’s ERA and WHIP lower…K’s close but in favor of Castillo. They have Lynn’s ERA a tick above 4 which I don’t get. ..happened once in his career.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              It’s fair, and close

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              Not sure I understand what the trade is… but Castillo is unequivocally better than Lynn for 2020. He’s younger, has better pitches, TONS of room for growth still.

              I like Lynn a lot, but don’t be surprised if that was his career year. Projections are useful, but don’t rely on them as a crutch.

              Market has Lynn 80 spots lower than Castillo for a reason. Don’t get too cute!

            • Shallow League Decisions says:
              (link)

              Grey, I’m backing up to talk about Bauer again. Baby Seal likes Lynn between the two. who do you like straight up for 2020 – Lynn or Bauer?

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Bauer

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                Here’s the thing you should know w/ Lynn, since you’re clearly in a trading league.

                He used to sit 93 w/ the fastball when he was a whatever pitcher. Last year that was 94.5, often touching 96 to get Ks. That’s critical for his success.

                He ditched the slider, took a couple MPH off the cutter, and increased the usage. He threw the 4-seamer more too, and cut the crappy sinker usage in half.

                Someone clearly got in his ear about utilizing his best pitches more. You have to like what they’re doing down there in Texas with their pitchers now.

                OK, I buried the lede a bit haha. HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.

                The fastball velo is key for him, especially w/ how often he’s throwing it. There have been a lot of studies that 94 MPH on the fastball is critical for success. The higher the MPH, the more dominant, and obviously helps the offspeed play off it.

                If you have Lynn and he’s back to averaging 93 on the fastball… you probably want to run. I don’t think that happens, but it’s what you should know if you’re going to own him.

                Bauer: He has immense talent but is a major headcase. I don’t draft headcases as a sort of heuristic. Same reason I was off Thor.

                To be clear, they are pretty close from a value perspective. They both have their pluses and minuses. I don’t like Bauer AT ALL in that park. Increasing fly ball rate in that launchpad? No thanks. It’s pretty clear that 2018 is the outlier at this point. So he’s firmly in the “prove it to me” bucket until further notice.

                The thing w/ headcases is that you really don’t know what you’re getting from them. So that increases risk, and therefore, you should expect more of a discount.

                I was off him before, and now even more off him with a short szn. I’m fading any sort of perceived SP volatility as much as I can. He was maddening to own last year — not that I did — but that’s what I’ve heard, haha.

                His cutter got a lot worse last year and yet he threw it more often. He came into the year wanting to work on his change (and/or throw it more, can’t remember), but the GB% plummeted, and the HR rate went up. His curve remains elite, but that also had fewer swings and misses.

                He will almost certainly be better than last year… however, the swing from a 2018 near-Cy Young, to a 2019 near-unusable pitcher is something I have zero interest for 2020. Good luck!

                Pretty unrelated to this discussion, but FWIW, get Bauer if you can. I’m much higher on him than the market. I honestly am not sure if there’s much of a difference between him and Buehler. Bieber has better command and is more cerebral, Buehler has the better fastball. They both have elite stuff and command.

                Go look at their top line numbers and underlying metrics. They are literally the same pitcher (from a data perspective) — it’s uncanny. I have Walker as SP #3 and Bieber as SP #4. I get Bieber in all my most important leagues. Just a ridiculous price on him — literally can’t get enough Biebs!

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  OMG, get BIEBER if u can. HAHAHA, right after I torched the guy, fuck me.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Haha

  19. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    test69

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      So horny

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Or is that thirsty?

        • *big eyes emoji*

          it was still a bit wonky last night when I posted

          (that’s what she said)

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Hahaha

  20. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey – in any shortened season for 2020, would you move up or down a top prospect on a bad team (Julio Rodriguez in my specific case) in a 12 team keeper league where you can only keep 7?

    If he didn’t play at all in SEA this year, I most likely would not keep him due to other options barring something crazy.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends on the prospect, I wouldn’t move Ju-Rod up tho

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        What are you w/ Karinchak now??

        Also, just thought of this, those weekly / twice-a-week “news roundups” and player blurbs are always one of my favorite posts.

        Would love if you could try to squeeze those in, even if player news has slowed to a crawl… just a few blurbs would scratch the itch!!

        Think the feedback would be great for you too!

        seal advice over! haha

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Maybe I’ll do a roundup this week…There was nothing at all for about three weeks

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Yep, totally understand. Might finally have enough to do one now

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            lol, haven’t read the post yet!

            I’ll take a look

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              LOL! Why do people seem to care so much about what I am writing or doing?!?!?!

              The Magoo joke was good. Seems like some commenters get salty about what I have to say… how hard is it to just scroll past?

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Salty? Nah, I think it’s a razz…a sign of love

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  Haha, OK! I’ll take your word for it

                  Just a little confused, I guess. I’ll take what I can get it!

  21. baby seal says:
    (link)

    Grey!!!

    Happy Saturday, Boss Man! Here’s the LONG baby seal post you were thirsty for yesterday morning, haha.

    1 quick news item that was a major bummer yesterday. That A’s minor leaguer who died from COVID. Ugh. Feel for his family and what not, of course. I hate to sound callous, but there have been ~50K deaths last I saw. It’s not that one more doesn’t matter, it’s more so that I worry about those people who *don’t* want the season to happen (assholes), who will now use this as ammunition. At least this happened early enough, where hopefully enough time passes, which heals all. RIP. Moving on…

    My $100 FT Best Ball starts at 1pm today! 2H slow clock. Weird position eligibility rules. Pretty much the opposite of the NFBC format. Everyone has 1 primary position and that’s it. E.g. Gleyber is a SS only. Muncy is 2B only.

    Also gives points for walks, which is obviously a big change. I had downloaded the ADP when B_DON created one of his fun $20 slow auction leagues a few weeks back, and we essentially recreated the format, but with an auction. I noticed the ADP is TOTALLY OFF what the player values should be — w/ a lot of people seemingly not paying enough attention to how much the BB points change things. It mirrors Roto way too much.

    This makes 1B EXTREMELY DEEP. Someone like a Carlos Santana has an ADP that literally makes zero sense.

    So I wanted to give this a try. Seems like I should have a good chance to win some $. The payouts are pretty good. 12 teams, top-5 win $200, and 6th place gets their money back.

    Unless I have some HORRIBLE injury luck, think my chances of winning $ are fairly high. Good way to pass the time too!

    I am finally not drafting in the middle!!!!!! Wow!! So did I get a top-3 pick, finally, you might ask?

    No, no, no. Of course not! BS not allowed to own any of the top-3 in 2020!

    I have last pick! Haha. I actually *kind of* like this — great for the slow draft BB format — can pay attention a little less and just make 2 picks at once. Not sure who will be available there, but I am likely going batter and SP with those picks. Pitching is hugely important in this format, as you may know.

    Lindor + Buehler would be the dream that is not likely to happen. Think Lindor may have a shot to make it back if there is a heavy emphasis on SP. Then I would just snag my boy Bieber there, I think. May just go double bats, though. Not entirely sure yet. Think I would actually, as I write this out. Helps to work out my thoughts on “paper,” haha.

    Starting roster is relatively normal — unlike that other wacky league, haha: 1C, regular infield spots, no CI or MI, 5 OF, no U, 9 P.

    I’m going to attack the positions early that are normally a bit deeper, but are now more shallow due to their primary position rules. SS is no longer as fully loaded. 3B is even deeper than before. 1B is now LOADED. Even more important to get a top 2B in this format, I think.

    Actually took a bunch of notes last time after our draft that I am slowly rereading this morning. Seems to me, based on my math before, the better ROI play is 2 bats early, then get a SP w/ like every other pick for a few turns. Maybe double up once. Can walk you through this logic if you care to know more!

    Catch ya later!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      As they say, one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic… what is Santana’s ADP that makes no sense?

      No way you’re getting Lindor….Two bats early then alternating SPs later works…way I’ve been doing most leagues for a while now…obviously need to be flexible in case a guy falls or you need power or speed

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        His NFBC OC ADP is about 150. It’s 112 here. Not even saying I love the guy — just to be clear.

        I ran auction values previously, and I did a little of my own “projections” (not really) before too, leveraging ATC and applying the point values on top of it. Really easy dumb math.

        Because of the walks, his values goes up a TON! I don’t use these things religiously, just to be clear. It’s a guide. But my auction value has him as the 47th ranked player, and the points projection have him as the 30th best batter.

        That may be a bit high, but there’s no way it’s off by THAT order of magnitude, you know what I mean?

        Yeah, we’re on the same page. Going 2 bats. Then likely 1 bat and 1 pitcher. Then once I see 2 pitchers I like, I’ll double up, and then continue alternating from there.

        Thanks!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I know what you mean…He always seems undervalued, but he’s also extremmmmmmmmmmely boring

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Hahahaha. His OBP works in this format. I was pulling a random name out of a hat.

            Sooooo I got Lindor!! Had a chance for Buehler too! Guy in front of me took Verlander — thank you!

            Really wanted to pull the trigger on him — but there’s no point.

            For reference, Bauer, with his shitty year last year was like a top-15 P in this format and finished as the 63rd overall player… my values have him as the 11th best pitcher and 43rd best player overall. ADP is 65, which is about what the site has him in line to finish this year, according to their projection ranks….

            Took Bregman. Should be a beast in this format. Got 2 top-10 bats — LFG baby seal!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              You got Lindor?! Cmon, that doesn’t even make sense…who are these people you’re roping and doping?

              Bregman?! Oh god why

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                I told you there was a chance! Everyone overrates pitching in points leagues (to some extent, depends on the rules).

                Think Lindor was 10th on the site’s ADP list, so thought there was actually a decent shot. Understand why you think that’s insane haha!

                **This example precisely explains why I wanted to do this league. The level of competition is far below what I usually play against.**

                Why did I take Bregs, or why was he available? haha… going to assume you mean the former.

                Remember, walks count for points!! Scoring rules down below. He’s great in this format!!

                Your boy Alonso finished 15th overall last year. Just to give you an idea how much they matter.

                Who else would you have taken? Maybe Harper would be the next choice for me. Soto was gone. I have Freeman similar, but 1B is so deep, I didn’t feel like that was a good choice. JRAM has too low of a floor, and since SB isn’t a “category,” it’s really not worth the additional risk.

                Pretty big tier drop after that, IMO. Bregman has a great floor and ceiling in BB leagues…

                Scoring Group

                Scoring Category

                Points

                Hitting

                Hits (H)

                1

                Hitting

                Home Runs (HR)

                3

                Hitting

                Plate Appearances (PA)

                0

                Hitting

                Runs Batted In (RBI)

                1

                Hitting

                Runs Scored (R)

                1

                Hitting

                Stolen Bases (SB)

                3

                Hitting

                Walks (BB)

                1

                Hitting

                Batting Average (AVG)

                0

                Hitting

                On Base Percentage (OBP)

                0

                Pitching

                Earned Runs Allowed (ER)

                -1.5

                Pitching

                Innings Pitched (IP)

                1.5

                Pitching

                Quality Starts (QS)

                3

                Pitching

                Saves (SV)

                6

                Pitching

                Strikeouts Pitched (K)

                1.5

                Pitching

                Wins (W)

                3

                Pitching

                Earned Run Average (ERA)

                0

                Pitching

                Hits Allowed + Walks Allowed (H+BB)

                -0.5

                Pitching

                WHIP Ratio (WHIP)

                0

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Harper is a beast with OBP anything…maybe Freeman, if you’re taking Alonso from me…Bregman is fine there but I still don’t love him, you know how I feel on him….nothing to do with trash cans either

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    I got Alonso and Morton on the next turn. Don’t worry, G!

                    I don’t hate the Harper call in retrospect. I think they are basically the same, though.

                    Bregman is going to keep depositing homers over that stupid wall… the distance doesn’t concern me. Same reason why Judge’s distance is low. It’s actually a positive!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      It’s a positive? Hmm…Okay

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Yep, think it’s safe to say that pulling homers is actually a skill for him.

                      I also think AVG HR distance is one of the least important metrics I can think of off the top of my head… any reason why you think it *is* important?

                      Honest question! Just trying to understand what I’m missing here.

                      The guy also hit .315 w/ 25 HR on the road last year… I hate the Astros as much as the next guy, believe me, I would not mind at all if he had a career-ending injury this year. That would be worth it.

                      His plate discipline is off the charts. Really like the pick, honestly.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I honestly worry about all his fly balls, like I worried about Jo-Ram’s fly balls last year…Too many fly balls can be a huge detriment…

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      OK, thanks for the reply!

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    Think my comment got deleted?

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      lol nope… that was weird

                      while I’m here, are we already forgetting Harper’s injury history?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Bryce doesn’t have injury history, he had injuries

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Hmm, not sure I understand the difference?

                      Not trying to be pedantic — that’s what I meant.

                      The way he plays and swings will lead to more injuries, IMO. I don’t think he’s a chronic injury guy though, in case that’s what you thought I meant?

                      I DON’T LIKE WHEN WE AREN’T SIMPATICO!!! Ahhhh, my brain hurts!

                      All good… not sure there is much more to discuss here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, thanks, man!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      And stay away from the beach!

  22. packers2018 says:
    (link)

    Grey, what is your email address for Razzball?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Why?

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        I have a great opportunity for you to make $1 million. Just need to send me $230 and we can arrange the wire transfer!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Sweet! I’m gonna be rich!

      • packers2018 says:
        (link)

        I emailed Rudy but he said you handle Patreon issues.

        I signed up and even received an email with the Itch face scratch, but then received an email saying my credit card had some issues (which I pay in full each month) and I no longer can log in. With all the hacks and scams out their I wanted to double check with you before I resubscribe. I trust you but not everything I read with the internet.

        So basically was hoping you can check my account and verify there was an issue. Thanks.

  23. Perfect Game says:
    (link)

    Montas was stellar last year in his 15 starts and Statcast results were super impressive backing up what he did as a true breakout.

    Why do you have him ranked so low outside your top 40?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like him, wrote a sleeper post for him…I also think I have him ranked correctly

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        BOOM goes the dynamite!

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      I’m totally w/ you on Montas, FWIW.

      Grey’s ranks are a guide. He does a really good job with them. But he can’t be all things to all people. It’s OK to have a different opinion!

      His ranks are literally the only ones I use or look at. But I look at them early in draft szn, and then start to make up my own mind. You should do the same — that’s how you’re going to grow as a player! (And not saying that you don’t do that — obviously I don’t know you — speaking in generalities here.)

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Last thing, I hate rankings with a burning passion. There’s so much more to this than just looking at ranks. That’s why I don’t use them for the most part.

        However, Grey’s ranks are EASILY the best I’ve seen in the industry, by a long shot. So I DO highly respect them. Just wanted to be clear on that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Appreciate that, baby seal!

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            You got it bud

  24. Chin Music and Astros says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I forget what your projections for J-Ram were over a full season before you adjusted them for a shortened season. What were they?

Comments are closed.