I went over 13 pitchers in May that should be better according to their FIP.  Some of those pitchers on the list who weren’t doing great that have since turned it around are Nolasco, Floyd, Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Beckett, Javier Vazquez and Ubaldo.  8 of 13.  Two other pitchers were Randy Johnson and Gil Meche.  So they were injured and haven’t hurt any teams in a while.  So 8 of 11 healthy pitchers.  One of the missing pitchers is Scott Olsen.  Next to his name, I wrote, “Blech.”  So I think it was clear I wasn’t telling you to go grab him.  So that’s 8 of 10.  Another pitcher was Pavano.  Next to his name I said, “Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.”  Obviously not an endorsement.  That’s 8 of 9.  The last pitcher was Andy Sonnanstine.  I’m never been a fan of his and he’s been in the minors since June, so he didn’t hurt you really either.  So that’s 8 for 8 in Grey Math.  Eat it, snitches!  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)

Ricky Nolasco – 1.66 difference.  Yup, he’s going to continue to be better.

Carl Pavano – 1.12.  Still ignore.

Paul Maholm – 1.11.  Don’t you love when a plan doesn’t come together.  Maholm should be better, but that doesn’t mean I’d rush out to own him.  He’s nothing but match-up material.

Jorge de la Rosa – .90.  I do own him in a 12 team league and I’d start him every time out in away games and play match-ups at home.  BTW, he had a 2.50 ERA in July.  That included 5 home games and only one away game.

Cole Hamels – .87. Having some shizzy luck when it comes to men LOB and BABIP.  The bigger problem is I think the Phils abused his arm so badly in 2008 that he/they are paying for it now.

Jon Lester – .75.  Gotta love when a pitcher’s below a 4 ERA and still supposed to be better.

Francisco Liriano – .75.  Hmph. Well, what do we do with that?  The Twins seem like they’re at the point where they don’t want to bother with Liriano anymore.  I’m definitely not bothering with Liriano.  If I want an ulcer, I’ll snoop through my girlfriend’s photo albums of old boyfriends.

Kevin Correia – .75.  Hey, I think this is our first HodgePadre to ever appear on a FIP post.  Johnny Olson tell ’em what he’s won…  A brand new washer and dryer!

  1. big o says:

    just flip to the last page of that photo album .
    if your picture’s there ,
    well ,
    good luck with that .

  2. martin says:

    great post. With this in mind do u like nolasco over gallardo?

  3. Grey

    Grey says:

    @martin: Thanks, and they’re pretty much a coin flip. I’d take Nolasco if I had to choose one.

  4. Nathan says:

    Before this week, my starting outfield was Justin Upton, Jason Bay, and Nelson Cruz (with Adam Dunn in the Util slot).

    What would you do in my situation? Currently they are being replaced by Josh Willingham, Lastings Milledge, and Everth Cabrera, and I’m in a H2H league.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Nathan: Hope my guys come back healthy as soon as possible and start the hot guys (like you are) in their stead.

  6. mrbaseball says:

    Happ staying put in Phillies’ rotation

  7. Grey

    Grey says:

    @mrbaseball: I saw. I don’t really believe they’re going to put Moyer in the bullpen. Makes little sense to me. But I do seem to be wrong. It happens.

  8. Lava says:

    Maybe Pedro is bullpen bound?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Lava: Doesn’t make any sense to me to send Pedro to the bullpen.

  10. RIP Harry says:

    Anyone know why Ian Stewart has played in no games this series? Atkins did have a good game tuesday, but still.

  11. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:

    @Grey: Lambda!

    I was trying to trade Gallardo for Quentin and the other guy said, “Let’s see how he throws tonight.”

    Gallardo’s line: 5.2 10H 9ER

    Thanks, Yovani! If he’d string together two good outings, I’d trade his ass.*

    *Nevermind that people in my league do things like base their decisions on trades on one outing. Bleech.

  12. SamYo says:

    Start Beckett tomorrow right ?
    and Smoltz + Yankee Stadium = scary.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:

    @SamYo: I’d start Beckett in 12 team leagues, but he’s liable to get pounded. No on Smoltz.

  14. peter says:

    Hmm… Jim Johnson seems to be pitching the 8th with the O’s ahead by 4 runs.

  15. Dingo says:

    But… butt… Hamels is mainly a fastball/changeup pitcher! Only 14% of his pitches last year were breaking balls! I read somewhere that that means he’s not a risky pitcher! I swear, it’s true!

  16. Dingo says:

    @Dingo: Freudian slip on the butt, perhaps?

  17. Grey

    Grey says:

    @peter: Orioles are losing. He’s getting work.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Dingo: Hamels was on Verducci’s list this year. He threw way too many innings last year.

  19. mike says:


    Smoltz will rock it tonight! (sox fan) but I have a good feeling…

  20. peter says:

    @Grey: Oops – O’s four runs DOWN. That changes everything. My sine wave’s phase must have been >0; now I’m lambda! Thanks, Grey!

  21. mike says:

    Dukes had a great day…you could be right…couuld be time to grab him especially with my team short Bay, Cruz.

  22. @Grey: Spoke to Her Highness from the grave; “Big Boned” is fine.

  23. BabyBeluga says:

    Love the post – nice to see that faith in Nolasco is going to continue to reward.

    Trade where I receive Lincecum and Loney
    Give – Kinsler, Cruz and Aardsma

    An overpayment, but first in saves, and Kinsler and Cruz both a bit gimpy. Do you do this? (10 team, 5×5, mixed)

  24. Atomic says:

    @mike: Yeah razzball, thanks for the tip on Dukes. I just picked up Correia too for tomorrow vs Mets.

  25. @Grey: 12 team 5×5 roto, would you start DLR (CHI, @FLA) and/or Cueto for next weeks lineup (@STL, WAS)? Thanks

  26. brad says:

    Bruce & Shields for Wells & Nolasco, who wins?

  27. Lava says:

    As far as Dukes is concerned, would you take him over Gomes in a weekly (no matchup) league?

  28. brad says:

    or what about Shields for Beckham? (beckham costs a 22nd round pick, shields a 7th)

  29. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    J-Up to DL. (don’t know if this is new news or old)

  30. Probable Party Starter says:

    Just lost J-Upside to the disgraceful. I’m good on power, so I’m debating between the SP pu-pu platter or should I rock a SAGNOF of Cabrera/R.Davis?

  31. David says:

    Hey Grey, Dukes or Milledge?

  32. Rush says:

    Grey rest of the year: Dukes, Mccutchen, or Fowler?

  33. TheGreatVeto says:

    @Grey: 99% of the time i start one of my starters against the Phillies, i get shelled. I got Nolasco @ Phi tomorrow. And as hot as he has been lately, I have this feeling I could get burned yet again. Should I…

    A) Bench Nolasco and pick up Blanton in hopes he strikes out Uggla 6 times


    B) Roll the bones with Nolasco

    I need a W and some K’s, thanks.

  34. Jo says:

    what side of the deal do you like: pujols and lester for votto, ar-ram and cain

  35. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @TheGreatVeto: Nolasco better K/9. Phi. fewer Ks than Fla. K’s a push. Quit asking for Ws.

  36. PJtres says:

    grey..i just traded my bjupton for his Aroid in a keeper league…

    was this a good deal like i thought? or do you think i will regret giving up a bj?

  37. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @PJtres: How did you pull that off? ONLY regret would be long-term injury. Nice!

  38. big o says:

    oh my freaking word . they’re still talking about this infamous list of 103 .
    of course now , it’s taken on the “big papi going into yankee stadium , and hearing about it” twist .

    “what i wanna know is , who’s leaking out the names ? is it the government ??” …. jim kaat … on mlb tv .
    listen dickheads , it doesn’t matter who w. mark felt is .
    just get it over with , already .

    you want names ?
    i’ll give you names .
    every dominican ….. the trick is to pick one that didn’t .
    hell , pee-dro ‘s doing it , as we speak .

    un-lax , snitches .
    sleep well .
    bud milhous selig will be pardoned .
    just sweep it under the rug . one piece of shizz at a time .

    title of my new book … “there’s an elephant under my rug”
    what say you , hippo ?
    want an autographed copy ??

  39. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:

    I am getting sick of these Frank-Frank holds.

    Thankfully CJ Wilson gave up another run in the 9th, to hopefully further nudge him back into the set-up role he so richly deserves.

  40. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @Grey: OK, so far Calapso, 3 games: 2 singles, 2 BB, 1 R; Kendrick 1 game, 1 single, 1 run. You are right so far–it is in question. I am going to find a bridge if Kendrick comes out on top. One swing away….

  41. ThePoonTycoon says:

    @Jo: pooholes/lester

    @PJtres: tough call, i think i’d rather have bj purely based on age, but it could go either way. i traded away aroid in a keeper league for teixeira this year after aroid when on his big hot streak about a month ago. if you look around the league, check out how many guys are having big fall offs these days at 32-34 years old. remember when bonds and co. were blasting HRs and batting .330 at 40? i think those days are done except for the few and far between thanks to steroid testing. i’m more concerned about a relatively substantial tail off in aroid’s number at his age today than i would have been 5 years ago. the game is getting younger.

  42. SamYo says:

    @Jo: Pujols and Lester side.

  43. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    This from Rototimes: “Volstad’s ERA is now an unimpressive 4.48, but his WHIP is still a respectable 1.29. He’s surely only going to get better as time goes on. ” Huh? This season? Since the break: 1.53 WHIP, .366 OBA, .509 SLG.

  44. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @ThePoonTycoon: The coin has two sides. What do you see that Upton has brought to the table this season other than steals? Pretty one-dimensional with a .244 AVG and .371 SLG.

  45. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @ThePoonTycoon: I like your bringing attention to the age issue, though. Definitely an unfolding new issue.

  46. SamYo says:

    Grey, since J-Up went to the DL, which OF do you like better as a replacement – Willingham, Posednik, Wigginton, Bradley ?

  47. DrEasy says:

    Dukes or Luke Scott?

  48. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @Grey: Top two hot young hitters for balance of year? (Points: R, TB, RBI, BB, SB). Thank you.

  49. ThePoonTycoon says:

    @Simply Fred: maybe i got blind hope in potential, but 2 years ago he hit 20+ HRs and in the postseason last year he hit 7 in 16 games. i think the shoulder surgery messed him up this year and got him off to a horrid start. he had a pretty awesome june, though july he slumped a bit again. he’s also not scared to take a BB. he’s not the only ray having an off year (maybe a hangover from 2008?), longoria has been lackluster since his monster april and pena isn’t gonna win a batting title, but is .250 too much to ask for??

    upton is still just 24. another guy of similar skill set is jimmy rollins. a month ago everyone was saying he’s dunzo, but now he appears to be on pace for another 100 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB season. and he’ll probably get his avg up to .260ish. upton could go on a similar tear and end up with 20 HRs and 55 SBs and bat .300 from here on out.

  50. Carl Spackler says:

    Grey, hope all is well…….I am in the same boat as many with the J-Up loss. Here are a couple of options McCrutchen, Lastings, Span, Burrel, Cuddyer. Those are probably the best to choose from

  51. Martin says:

    buckholtz or DLR?

  52. Adam says:

    @Martin: DLR

  53. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @ThePoonTycoon: #1–I value your knowledge. Thank you for engaging. I have had Upton on my team last 2 years for all of the reasons you list. Hopefully, his potential erupts–today would be a good starting point. It is just that even if Arod performs somewhat less next year. Overall, he seems to me much more likely to out-produce Upton next year. Why not wait another year to make a trade like that? Seems as if the Upton holder has limited potential and options for next year?

  54. black love says:

    @Grey: I asked you earlier about a trade i was offered, there Markakis and CC for my Howard and Randy Wells.
    You said to go for it, but im having alittle separtation anxiety with Howard, being he was my first pick and all.
    Im thinking of offering Ibanez and Wells for his Markakis and CC.
    Does this seem fair to you? This guy is looking for HR’s

  55. Pro Beach says:

    Grey, or anyone – regarding your Venables post earlier, wherein you talked about the high-turnover rate of hot players over the last 2 months (which I agree with), I have a situation where that does not apply.

    We have an add/drop deadline in our league, and after the deadline, you can only pick up a player IF the person at that position on your team is injured, and you have a backup on the team that is also not available. In other words, if I have Pedroia and he gets hurt but I dont have a 2B backup on my roster, I am screwed for the entire postseason (16 team H2H points league). The rule was designed to encourage balanced rosters, keep people from carrying 15 pitchers into the postseason, etc.

    On to my question. I need a utility player for the rest of the season. Ideally, I need a backup to SS, where I have Stephen Drew, but at the very least, an infielder would probably be best. Keep in mind, points league, pretty standard scoring.

    I am looking at Coghlan, Ev. Cabrera – also on the WW are Venable, S. Smith, Daniel Murphy, Counsell, M. Ellis. r,

    My team looks like this
    B – N. Morgan
    J. Johnson
    J. Zimmerman

    We start 7 pitchers. Who should I pick up? Sorry this is so long.

  56. ThePoonTycoon says:

    @Simply Fred: i’m not saying i would do it, but i can see someone doing it. i’d probably try to trade aroid for someone who is actually having a good year, i.e. i waited and waited through aroid’s huge slump, let him go on a run, then traded him straight up for teixeira. got similar production minus the steals (will aroid even run that much from here on out??) and got 5 years younger.

  57. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @ThePoonTycoon: Well, definitely not as one-sided as I thought. I would think twice about projecting too much for Arod down the road (or any other ageing player). Thank you!

  58. jbatkins says:

    With Justin Upton out, I need to pick someone up. This is a points league, not roto, so speed versus power doesn’t matter, just as long as they produce (having said that, homeruns are king in this scoring system unless you’re someone like Carl Crawford… or maybe Nyjer Morgan?). Here are my options:

    Nyjer Morgan, Kyle Blanks, Gerardo Parra, or Angel Pagan.

    Believe it or not, I think I’m leaning toward Pagan. But Morgan’s probably the smart pickup, right?

  59. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @ThePoonTycoon: BTW: I have Teixeira, not Arod, on my roster as well.

  60. jbatkins says:

    @Pro Beach: Wow. You wrote all that about a backup? Wow…
    Anyways, given the guys you listed, and considering the reason for your pickup, I think I would pick up E. Cabrera. It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Drew gets injured (in fact, it’s a miracle he’s not on the DL right now, considering family history), and Cabrera would protect you from your league’s rules in that situation, and he’s been pretty reliable the last month or so, even in a points league.

  61. Pro Beach says:

    @jbatkins: Yeah. I know it is a lot, but with the add/drop deadline next week, it is a big decision. Thanks for the input. I like Coghlan a lot too, but I was leaning towards Everth.

  62. jbatkins says:

    @Pro Beach: Well Coghlan won’t be eligible to back up Stephen Drew should he go down, would he?

  63. Grey

    Grey says:

    @peter: Ha!

    @zombie: Cool

    @BabyBeluga: I’d take Lincecum.

    @matthole: I wouldn’t start Cueto.

    @brad: Nolasco side.

    @Lava: Dukes > Gomes.

    @brad: Beckham.

    @Simply Fred: News to me.

    @Probable Party Starter: Not disgraceful, just DL. I’d take Davis.

    @David: Dukes

    @Rush: Dukes

    @TheGreatVeto: Roll on Nolasco. But I’m starting Blanton too.

    @Jo: Pujols side.

    @PJtres: I think you will eventually regret it. Probably not this year.

    @big o: Kaat.

    @SamYo: Willingham

    @DrEasy: Dukes

    @Carl Spackler: McCutchen

    @Martin: dlR

    @black love: Go with Ibanez.

    @Pro Beach: I’d pickup EverCab.

    @jbatkins: I’d go Morgan.

  64. HR. Mini. Donkey.

  65. big o says:

    # 33
    straight-away centerfield

  66. ASAOK says:

    have a free spot now cause of J-Up. Do you like Zito for the next few starts? (at home vs. cincy and then away vs the mets)

  67. Dingo says:

    @Elijah: Thank goodness! After two days without a home run, I was starting to get worried.

  68. bobbo says:

    @Grey: I have an outstanding trade proposed of my Beltran for his J-Upton in a keeper league (keep 5 offense). With both on the DL now, do you still do the deal? He says he is still considering it…

  69. Steve says:

    F*** you Scherzer.

  70. TheQuestforMerlin says:

    Hi Grey,

    I’ve been receiving complaints in a league I commission over a trade:

    Cuddyer + A. Kennedy for C. C. Sabathia.

    I don’t do trade veto’s if there isn’t any collusion (which I don’t believe is in this case) and both managers are in need of hitting and pitching respectively. However I could do with another (unbiased!) opinion…



  71. Dingo says:

    Dear Lord, Scherzer and Joba, why hast thou forsaken the strike zone???

  72. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Elijah: I love Gracie — “Went a little haywire.” Ha!

    @TheQuestforMerlin: It’s a terrible trade, but if it’s not collusion, what can you do? Can’t manage people’s teams.

  73. Dingo says:

    Actually, according to Gameday, it looks like Joba’s getting squeezed big time.

  74. Dingo says:

    Assuming Joba’s done for the night, the deadly duo have given me this line:

    10.1 IP, 7.84 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, 10 K, 1 W?


  75. TheQuestforMerlin says:

    @Grey: Yeah, it really is a shocker. Cheers!

  76. Steve says:

    @Dingo: I have them both too – but not on the same team.

    Still hurts though.

  77. @Grey:

    Gracie and Reynolds make the games worth watching, heh.

  78. mc serch says:

    @Grey: Thanks for talking me out of starting Joba tonight. Does Correia have your seal of approval? Thinking about streaming him for manana.

  79. peter says:

    Whenever I get a few to many (or not enough) Bulleits in me, I start perusing the wire and feeling antsy. I can’t tell if I need to add another dring or to add/drop another player. It’s important not to end up in this position too much, apart from, you know, my dislike of pickled liver, because – more pressingly – in one league there’s a limit on moves.

    So I’m staring at Elijah Dukes, who, like a good parolee, is very available. I currently have Scott Hairston on my “bench” (read: he’s been spelling R. Branyan pretty regularly @ Util). Is Dukes an improvement over Hairston? Or is it a push? (<– the non-aggravated assault kind)

  80. peter says:

    @peter: Edit: drink, not dring. Ha!

  81. Jay says:

    Drop Cantu for B. Butler?

  82. Grey

    Grey says:

    @peter: I’d go with Dukes.

    @Jay: Sure

  83. Prince says:

    @Grey: Doumit or Montero? Picking scabs …

  84. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Prince: Tomato-tomahto. I’d go with Doumit.

  85. Ham says:

    Everyone’s favorite Gaudin coming to the yanks!

  86. Dan says:

    Gaudin to New York!!

  87. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Ham: @Dan: Thanks for the heads up! Makes him even less likable.

  88. mc serch says:

    @Grey: thanks….last question tonight, my ibanez/macdougal for his lackey/aardsma or his f-her/aardsma?

  89. mc serch says:

    @Grey: thanks….it just occurred to me that gaudin’s gotta shave that possum off his face now, huh?

  90. Billy says:

    who replaces Gaudin? Poreda?

  91. pallet says:

    Rank these catcher for the rest of the season:

    Iannetta, Napoli, Posada, Montero, Pierzynski

    I have Napoli but he’s back to platooning…

  92. G says:

    Im looking for a solid #3 closer. What type of closer could I possibly get by giving up Buehrle?

  93. mrbaseball says:

    J. Smoltz – its time to retire

  94. big o says:

    haren … rbi

  95. jamiesonmj says:

    to pick up for util spot – mccutchen, orlando cab. or milledge

  96. Steve says:

    A steal for the Wolfman! With two outs!

  97. Steve says:

    (Yet) Another J-Up replacement question. Needs RF eligibility Who ya got?


  98. Schatzi says:

    howard/d.lee and Howell for A.Rod and Ichiro Suzuki,

    is this fair trade, what side you like better?


  99. big o says:

    haha .
    scully …. promoting manny ramirez bobblehead night …. said
    “and you can receive your bob-o-hell ….”

  100. Martin says:

    hey everyone what do you think of this idea? Joba has had horrible control lately. After the game he was shown wearing glasses. Mabye he just has bad eye sight kinda like “the wild thing” from the movie major league??

  101. Grey

    Grey says:

    @mc serch: Probably, yeah.

    @Billy: Maybe Geer, maybe Poreda.

    @pallet: Napoli, Montero…

    @G: Maybe Aardsma or Qualls?

    @jamiesonmj: Milledge, unless you need steals then McCutchen.

    @Steve: Willingham

    @Robert: Sure

    @Schatzi: Howard side, unless you need average with Ichiro. It’s fair either way.

    @big o: He didn’t say that, did he?

    @Martin: Ha!

  102. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Steve: Confession — That’s me.

  103. john says:

    @Grey: So Grey’s gf likes ’em short, eh?

  104. Steve says:

    @Grey: Is that one of the wrestlers?

    I’m still mired in the 70s when it comes to those guys.

    Where have you gone, Abdullah the Butcher?

  105. big o says:

    not to worry .
    just a slip of the tongue .
    just kept going , and said it right the next time … never acknowledging nuthin’ .
    there was no intention involved .

    i know that you’ve said that you revere the guy ,
    but one of the reasons i’ve never liked the guy , was when he was doing the play by play for the u.s. open (golf) …. a japanese golfer made a bad approach shot , and scully proclaimed “he wasn’t too inscrutable on that one ” .
    this was around the time of t.c. chen (two-chip chen) , though i don’t think it was that particular incident , nor that japanese golfer .

    back in the day , i viewed “inscrutable” as racist terminology ….
    having heard it only in reference to the detective charlie chan .

  106. AL KOHOLIC says:

    im here guys,keep me going,i think guys that were either fat or non athletes when younger can handle being fat and out of shape better than guys that were always in shape till they were 35,im 45 now temp. laid off,got all the house and yard work done4 weeks ago and this hard work is killing me(the flood sucked but sadly i needed the motivation to cut the roots from my ass and the couch to get going)but seriously to all that kinda know me,it wasnt that bad,no sewage and muck in the flash flood,the yard and roads look 100% normal only lost 1 bedroom suit washer dryer,fixed the ac/furnace and gotta gutt the basement and re-finish,oh and my junky car(the ole lady in the mazzarotti was at work)and few grand and about 4 inches off the gutt and we`ll be running fine,o.k. her car isnt a mazzarotti buts its only a year old,coulda been much much worse,really thankfull for everything.my teams are doing better without me,i feel like dusty baker

  107. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Steve: dick the bruiser,bulldog bog brown,and a bit later THE NATURE BOY RICK FLAIR WOOOOOOO

  108. Grey

    Grey says:

    @john: Hehe

    @Steve: Ah, he was a bleeder. Kinda like Rafael Soriano.

    @big o: Ah…

    @AL KOHOLIC: That’s good, sounds like you’re staying positive. Definitely keep you busy. re: Dusty – ha!

  109. Colin says:

    Rafael Soriano is a fkn jackass.

    How do you bring NOTHING to the mound against the NL’s best? He just bent over and took it up the ass like a cheap whore.

  110. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Colin: Yeah, I feel your pain. He ruined a decent day on one of my teams.

  111. G says:

    Who would you bench? Any guys you would be cautious about? thanks
    Felix vs. TB
    Beckett @ NYY
    Blanton vs. Phi
    Jiminez vs. ChC
    Jurrjens @ LAD
    Buehrle vs. Cle

  112. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @G: I DONT LOVE ANY OF THOSE MATCHUPS BUT the 1st 2 are studs and cle sucks

Comments are closed.