In last week’s SAGNOF article, I looked at the state of SBs around the league from a positional standpoint. This week I wanted to dive in more from a draft cost standpoint. In order to do this, I looked at NFBC ADP for the last 30 days and used Steamer projections to find all players who are projected to have 10+ SBs. The chart below shows the number of players by round (NFBC 15 team leagues):
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What we see immediately is some interesting trends form. Unsurprisingly, most SB threats can be found in the first 10 rounds and these become more sparse as the draft goes on. “Round 31” is all players drafted outside of the top 450 picks. This all supports what we have heard throughout the community this draft season of “get your SBs early”. As the draft goes on you have fewer and fewer possible SB targets. The trend shows up even more if you change the SB target total to 15+.
This highlights exactly why we need to be targeting our SBs early, missing out early means you need to be targeting one of the late-round options. However, this severely limits your flexibility in the draft and if someone else beats you to drafting one of these players, then you fall ever further behind. Yet the question is, who are these late-round targets (round 15+) and why are they falling in drafts?
- Raimel Tapia and Garrett Hampson (18th Round) – The two Rockies players are two of the more popular late-round SB targets. Tapia is a high AVG no power SB threat with potential PT Concerns. Hampson is the one I would be more interested in. He provides double-digit homers to go with the steals, however, like most late-round targets his AVG is a flaw
- Andres Gimenez (18th) – Gimenez was a main part of the Francisco Lindor trade and his first year in Cleveland could not have gone worse. He is a defensive stalwart but the bat is a big question. The PT will be a concern but if he can keep the role there’s some pop in the bat that could make him a 15/20+ threat. For teams that need speed, Gimenez gives you more than the typical player in this range
- Jonathan Villar (19th) – Villar has been destined for a bench role for years but somehow always ends up with regular PT. His skill set is similar to that of Gimenez with a bit more power and track record. His ADP will skyrocket once the lockout ends and he signs somewhere if there’s a shot at regular PT
- Rafael Ortega (22nd) – Ortega’s late-career breakout was overshadowed by Frank Schwindel doing the same but Ortega has a power-speed profile that is worth taking a shot on, the Cubs do not have enough talent to stop them from seeing if Ortega’s numbers were real. I like him a lot in drafts this season
- Manuel Margot (24th) – Margot is a fantastic defender and former top prospect who has never quite reached the heights of his prospectdom. Speed has always been a big part of his game and while I think there’s more power in there he has yet to show it in a full season. The PT is also a question as it is with any Rays player
- Tyler Wade and Dylan Moore (Round 31+) – Both of these guys have massive PT concerns and different skillsets. Moore flashed in 2020 which lead to him being highly drafted last season before he flopped. If taking a shot on these players go for the one who has at least had some success before. Wade is all speed, there won’t be any power that comes with him if he manages to keep a starting role. However, he could do a poor mans Whit Merrifield if he gets 600+ PAs