SAGNOF: Streaming The Steal

What a time to be alive. The era of the stolen base is is here to stay and I am loving it. Just take a look at the Stolen Base leaderboard below. We are barely ten games into the season and we’ve got guys on pace for 100 steals. We have 16 players who have already snagged three bags. Take a look at Dairon Blanco averaging two steals for every at bat. Bubba Thompson is at 0.5 steals per AB. Also of course, my Pre-season love Jose Caballero who I hope everyone bought for cheap sitting there on the leaderboard as well.

There are stolen bases to be had everywhere on the waiver wire. If you start falling behind grabbing a guy like Blanco to sub in on short schedule days could be a boon for your teams by the end of the season. It’s a thing I’ve invented, Stolen Base Streaming….You know the Batty Call for Home Runs, I’d like to invite all of you to help come up with a new name for the Dairon Blanco’s of the world. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Again until we get some more data from just this year I’ll be providing stats from 2023 and 2024 to look for some juicy stolen base opportunities.

What do I look at when checking out stolen base targets you ask?

There’s the obvious things like Stolen Base success ratios. This would be stolen bases compared to times caught stealing. There is player sprint speed which is usually a great indicator of future success. Also, SB/PA helps find the guys who may only be contributing in one thing like Dairon Blanco.

On the defensive side of things, I think the most important thing is SB/IP for pitchers as this gives some insight into guys that allow traffic and struggle with keeping guys close and not allowing large jumps by the runners. The pitcher is a much bigger factor than the catcher in determining how teams attack on the base paths. Time to home plate under 1.3 seconds is usually more difficult to steal off and guys over 1.4 seconds make the job al lot easier. Now that is not to say the catchers don’t play a part. For instance, teams always run on Keibert Ruiz. Why? His Pop Time is slow, and his arm strength is weak. There have been 95 stolen base attempts against Ruiz since the start of last season. That leads the majors by 14 attempts.

There are tools available to look at all these things, but I’m here to save you time and help you pummel your Fantasy Friends into submission on the bases.

If you followed any of the stolen base recommendations from last week’s article you’d have two extra steals on your roster already as we nailed the exact stolen base match-ups last week with Kevin Kiermaier and Amed Rosario.

Onto my picks for the rest of this week.

Yankees vs Marlins – Wednesday April 10th

Tim Anderson – Ol’ Timmy is raking, (.262 BA) I mean at least compared to last year. His speed is down as he is league average, but he is 14 out of 16 on the base paths the last two seasons and he will face off against Marcus Stroman Wednesday night. Stroman allowed 17 steals against in 2023 and no runners were caught against him all year which is good for .114 SB/IP. Both Jose Trevino and Austin Wells are middle of the pack at throwing out runners so if Timmy gets on he could be on the move.

Mets vs Braves – Thursday April 11th

Harrison Bader – The Mets face off against Max Fried Thursday night. Fried does a really good job of keeping runners close, and at least prior to his last start usually keeps runners at a minimum. I think he’s still struggling to get locked in and that could mean some base hits for Bader and the Mets. Sean Murphy is usually solid at throwing out runners, but Travis d’Arnaud is not. He checks in at 58th of 62 qualified catchers the last two seasons at throwing guys out.

Rockies vs Blue Jays – Friday April 12th

Brenton Doyle – How about a little Rockies action for Friday? Doyle is 22 of 27 for stolen bases so far in his career and is 13th overall in MLB sprint speed since he came up. Gausman had all sorts of trouble in his last start and his velocity is way down. He could be fighting through dead arm or injury and I like that for runners getting aboard. Gausman allows .121 SB/IP even when he’s locked in so the opportunity is there. Alejandro Kirk should be behind the dish and he is middle of the pack throwing runners out at 21%.

Reds Vs White Sox – Saturday April 13th

Stuart Fairchild – STUART!!! Fairchild is 14 of 17 stealing bases the last two seasons and with lefty Garrett Crotchet on the mound and injuries and suspensions in Cincinnati, he should be in the lineup. He is also tied for 31st in MLB in sprint speed. There isn’t much info on Crotchet as he has only thrown 30 innings in MLB the last two years. Runners are 3 for 3 against him. Catcher Martin Maldanado has only thrown out runners at 14% so he can be had.

As a reminder, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche