With Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor now called up that basically leaves Jose Peraza as the most intriguing speedster prospect as of now.  His path to playing time is muddled even though they have recently moved him to center field because Cameron Maybin has played extremely well there.  It is my (unfortunate) opinion that due to his situation Peraza doesn’t matter for 10 or 12 team leagues yet.  Onto the recently called up speedster prospects let’s consider their current fantasy value.  Mike has done numerous writeups of these players in various places and he most recently wrote that he considers Buxton to be “Leonys Martin with upside”.  Steamer/Razzball projects Buxton for 31-6-30-15 .241 in 78 games.  Realistically his AVG will likely fall anywhere from .235 to .270 depending mostly on K rate and BABIP.  In the minors he was hitting a very mediocre .283 with a 19.0 K% and .332 BABIP.  Sure I think he has plenty of upside but don’t expect too much out of Buxton.  I would rather hold on to a red hot and perhaps genuinely improved Cameron Maybin than pick up Buxton.  Anyway, depending on your league format Buxton has likely been picked up already.  I’d say he’s worth a 15% FAAB bid depending on what else you have for SBs and outfielders.

In case I’m not being enough of a wet blanket already, let’s move on to Francisco Lindor.  Speaking frankly, he’s nothing special for 2015.  Offensively he’s less of everything than Byron Buxton.  Lindor’s ROS projections sit at 32-4-30-11-.235 in 83 games.  As Mike points out, that makes him comparable to Alcides Escobar, projections-wise.  So I’d say he’s only interesting for teams weak at SS/MI.  Generally the projections for minor league players are going to look somewhat weak unless the player in question has tore up the minors for at least 1+ years.  What’s important to note is that for young players like this they could have very easily made an improvement this year that hasn’t necessarily shown itself either in stats so far and certainly not in the projections.  But I’m not optimistic that either Buxton or Lindor has made that leap yet, unlike Carlos Correa who I think may have.

Here’s a quick look at some older fellows who might be able to help you with steals.  Alex Rios is a player that’s now out there in some leagues, having been dropped in some and he stole over 40 bases as recently as 2013 but his year by year stolen bases totals are all over the place.  Steamer ROS projections are 88 games 31-6-33-10 .261 or to put it another way the 373rd player on the ROS rater, but also only 20 spots behind Byron Buxton on the same rater.  Depending on who’s out there, I would probably be included in the people dropping Rios, rather than picking him up.  Broken record alert: I’d rather own ‘playing only part time Rajai Davis’, that is if speed is your primary interest.  For overall value I think Rios could be fine, but bear in mind he’s 34 so there is a legit possibility for a decline.

Everth Cabrera is without a team after being released from the Orioles.  He’s probably more valuable with no team than he was with the Orioles because maybe he’ll actually play at his next landing spot.  He might be worth consideration because after all he stole 44 bases in 115 games in 2012 and 37 in 95 games played in 2013.  For leagues deeper than 12 team he might even be a stash before he’s signed with a team.

This week’s SAGNOF recommendations for stolen bases: Byron Buxton and for those desperate Francisco Lindor, Alex Rios and Everth Cabrera.  Previous recommendations that I’m still high on include Rajai Davis, Ender Inciarte and Kevin Pillar.

 

Just a few Saves Ain’t Got No Face tidbits this week.  Brad Ziegler is riding a sub .200 BABIP as far as it will take him.  That plus limited walks and oh, by the way, the closer role are about all he has going for him.  The last time he struck out a batter was back on May 22nd and he’s made 9 appearances since then.  I think at some point Enrique Burgos will be worth our attention again.  And at the other end of the Brad Ziegler (aka not so good) spectrum Jake McGee is a good example of why I favor skilled players.  His skill earned him back the closer role.  We didn’t get much clarity this week in the Cubs bullpen but Pedro Strop is still by far my favorite for Saves.

Time to speculate on which players might be traded.  Jonathan PapelbonFrancisco RodriguezTyler Clippard?  If Clippard were traded it would probably be as a setup man, something that Smokey warned us about recently.  His potential vacancy would likely leave the closing duties to Evan Scribner (assuming no Doolittle by then) who’s been very solid and has a nice 37:3 K:BB in 33.2 innings so far this year.  I think Jonathan Papelbon is the one most likely to be traded to fill a team’s 9th inning role.  So who might lose their closing job as a result of a newcomer’s arrival?  Total speculation here, but I’ll say the Jays might acquire an experienced closer making Brett Cecil a candidate to be moved to the 8th inning.  I’ll definitely be revisiting my trade speculation, possibly for the All-Star week post.

  1. Bob michaels says:
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    Drop Polanco, souza, Buxton, sandoval for any of these guys Betts, heyward, trumbo, leonys, Hunter, Fowler, ethier

    Steals is only one cat. Other outfielders are marte, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, soler

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Bob michaels: Seems like a pretty shallow league, which I think means it matters less. Keep or pick up whomever you want. But if I were to rank all of them ROS… ugh… something like

      Trumbo, Betts, Polanco, Fowler, Souza, Sandoval, Buxton, Martin, Ethier*, Hunter, Heyward, Ethier*

      *Depends on whether you have a bench OFer to platoon him with because he doesn’t play everyday.

  2. Brian says:
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    Hudson got the save yesterday for Arizona, any we to make anything of it, or just random?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Brian: Looks just random, Ziegler had pitched the two previous days. Thanks for pointing it out, I didn’t see that yet because I was only looking at Save stats through Saturday when I researched this post. And thanks for reading.

  3. Slick says:
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    So, you kind of touched upon Francisco Rodriguez. I would imagine Wil Smith taking over? Any chance we see that happening?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Slick: Gawd I sure hope it’s Will Smith if it does happen. He hasn’t been getting any Holds though, seems like he’s mostly pitching in non-Save/Holds games. Broxton still appears to be the setup man but I haven’t looked carefully enough to be certain. Still, I don’t think they’d hand the ball to Broxton in the 9th with his stats being what they are. So yeah, Smith.

      I’ll give it a 23% chance. It’s too early to tell. Certainly though as it gets closer to the trade deadline the next in lines of the guys that could be traded should be owned over other (even superior) next in line players if you are speculating on Saves.

      • Slick says:
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        @RotoLance: so if we are speculating Saves, who is that ONE go to guy: Scribner, Smith, Broxton? Which one is your ONE pick?

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Slick: Scribner, particularly if you mean to possibly own the player from now until the deadline.

  4. Andre says:
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    Just got a trade offer and want to know your thoughts…..E5 and Eduardo Rodriguez for F.Freeman. Im in a 10 team, H2H keeper league., keep players forever. Counting stats are:

    W, L, Ks, ERA, WHIP, QS, and Saves

    H, HR, AVG, RBI, BB, Steals, and Runs

    Thanks!

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Andre: Well Encarnacion and E Rodriguez win in the short term but I suspect Freddie Freeman wins in the long term. Although the second one all depends on Rodriguez. I have no problem either way.

  5. Abe Froman says:
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    Pick 2 closers for the week:

    Carson Smith: 4 vs SF, 3 vs HOU
    Joakim Soria: 4 vs CIN, 3 vs NYY
    K-Rod: 4 vs KC, 3 vs COL

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Abe Froman: I think I’m too late on this one, sorry. Carson Smith and Soria.

  6. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Domingo Santana called up. Possibly worth an add on OBP / OPS formats. In standard 5×5 12 team.. might be a bit of a stretch.

  7. Erlich says:
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    who do you like: perkins for reddick?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Erlich: Reddick’s been amazing, he can keep it up enough to outperform Perkins.

  8. Erlich says:
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    (in a vacuum)

  9. Mike says:
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    Im killing myself trying to get holds, chasing potential guys every week. Could you give me your top 5 for the week or maybe a link to an article i missed…

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Mike: Glad to help, although my post doesn’t really talk about Holds sometimes just a note here or there, like a few weeks ago I noted Carter Capps and Hunter Strickland because their K:BB ratios were extremely good in a limited sample.

      I’ve actually never played in a Holds league. I would think though that chasing last weeks stats (I know that’s not precisely what you said you were doing) would be a bad thing to do. On the other hand the Razzball tools are probably as good as it’s going to get as far as trying to predict stats. I’m honestly not even certain if we have a tool that projects Holds though.. I need to check.

      I think you want to identify some players that sometimes pitch in the 7th/8th with leads, so Holds guys.. but instead of focusing on the number of Holds they have focus on their peripheral stats like K:BB, FIP, xFIP, SIERA because you also want to make sure they are good pitchers. Then if the Holds don’t really come right away at least they are helping ERA, WHIP and K.

      A top 5 is tough without knowing whose available plus because of my limited experience but Neshek would be in my top 5 every week I think. I would definitely jump on Carter Capps if he’s still out there. Check Smokey’s articles for better info on Holds. He does one post a week, half the time it’s closer rankings, half the time it’s holds so I’m trying to say he does a Holds article every 2 weeks.

  10. Luvdarooks says:
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    3 keeper $260 deep 12 team mixed.
    I have correa & seager (lad) at $5 for ’16 and $8 for ’17 then can’t keep after that.

    I’m Trading harper/hamel’s for the last and third keeper setting me up for the future.
    Whould that be Pederson $9 ’16 $12 ’17-?
    buxton $5 & $8 ?
    Or harvey $7 for only next year.
    Whatchathink?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Luvdarooks: That’s an interesting one. Assuming it’s not OBP or OPS (I think you’d have to go Pederson in that case) I think I would favor Buxton.

      I think Buxton could be better than Pederson in both 2016 and 2017. Stats wise it might be the difference between 15 HR 35 SB for Buxton, and 30 HR 10 SB for Pederson but Buxton should be better in AVG. Pederson’s safer though, having done it for over 2 months already.

      I’d only consider Harvey unless your hitting is stacked already.

      It looks like you are setting up to have a good team in 2017 that’s for sure.

  11. Steve says:
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    Thoughts on Bobby Parnell?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Steve: I think he’ll be mediocre, certainly not good enough to challenge Familia for Saves.

      • Steve says:
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        @RotoLance: fair enough. Would you stash Cishek for a possible rebound?

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Steve: The league would have to be pretty deep to do that. He’s going to have to pitch well for an extended period of time to even have a chance. He was always solid as a closer but not great. I think Ramos might be a better pitcher even compared to the good version of Cishek so now that he’s lost the job I’m not sure how he will get it back. The only thing to monitor with Ramos is his BB rate because this year it’s down to 2.56/9 from a 4.82/9 career mark. If he’s really made that big jump there he’s better than Cishek.

          If you are desperate for Saves you could go with the “Clippard could be traded” theory and grab Scribner. Depends on what else is out there.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Steve: FYI it’s Parnell with the 5 out Save. LOL.. oh man. His velocity is reportedly down so I stand by what I said.

          • The Harrow says:
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            @RotoLance: last few years cishek was better than ramos now. i’m not including whatever went wrong with cishek this year in this.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @The Harrow: I disagree. A.J. Ramos has a K-BB% of 27.7%, CIshek’s best was 22.9%. Ramos’ FIP and xFIP from this year are also very comparable to the good Steve Cishek.

  12. tals23 says:
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    Is it time to drop boxberger?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @tals23: Not necessarily. He’s still outperformed Jepsen in my opinion. Boxberger’s K:BB is down to 32:10 after it was 104:20 last year but he can rebound. I’m not sure he’s the next in line to McGee as of right now but he could certainly get back there. If you don’t want to hold onto a good middle reliever with next in line potential go ahead and drop him.

      If we hear that his recent struggles are the result of some decreased velocity or injury well that changes everything.

  13. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    strop and rondon have nearly identical FIP’s, why would you say “far and away” the guy who started the year as the backup would be a favorite for saves?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: Because Hector Rondon was yanked from the job. I haven’t really heard anything since although Rondon did have the last Save.. so who knows. I think it’s silly for them not to try Strop, I thought he was better going into the season.

      But their skills in fact are fairly close. However in Strop’s favor, this is the 4th consecutive year that he has dropped his B/9 (which used to be terrible) and his K/9 is quite respectable. Rondon’s B/9 is very good but his K/9 (7.9 this year 8.11 career) is mediocre at best by RP and especially by closer standards.

      It actually looks the situation is setting up pretty well for Soriano, even though Strop and Rondon are probably both better. We’ll just have to see who they go with in the meantime.

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