When the most logical thing isn’t just that, that is the argumentative side to fantasy baseball.  The Royals, and most importantly Ned Yost, are outsmarting all us fake baseballers.  In turn, he is sapping the value from one of the favorites of SAGNOF-dom. Through three games, the uber Razzball fan favorite Jon Jay has hit leadoff in all three affairs.  Negating the leadoff value of Whit Merrifield. I touched briefly this offseason on the importance of hitting in the ultimate spot in the order and how it correlates to the outcomes of stolen bases. The interesting case with Merrifield? It’s that last year he hit in the top spot 111 times and also the final 101 games he played in the season from that top perch. That was last June, and I hate bringing up old stuff but I feel like it is pertinent to the here and now… he basically blossomed when he was left there to think for himself and made Whit Merrifield what you drafted Whit Merrifield this year to be. He amassed 28 steals, batted .282/.313/.449 with great counting stats from a middle infielder.  Now he has emerged as a second-in-the-order cog in the Royals order.  This is what happens when you are too good of a baseballer, but struggle in comparison to the more superior on-base percentage maven in Jon Jay.  (Never thought I would write that last sentence, ever.)  So if you drafted Merrifield this year, be afraid…very afraid.  the steals may not be there as much as you hoped for until he regains that penultimate spot in the batting order. The Royals approach here isn’t wrong. Jay is a better get on-base player.  Merrifield is a better fantasy player though, and batting second is sapping his value right now and basically the gist of this whole thing is JOHN JAY HAS VALUE.  I am not saying go into full-on punt formation, but backing yourself up with a MI option is a good idea. Maybe not for tomorrow, but forward-thinking type stuff.  There, after all, have only been 11 stolen bases from the leadoff spot this year and 64 totals steals across all of the stolen base universe.  Patience is not really the SAGNOF way, but exercising it may be the right thing to do right now…

Note: This post was written and submitted on Monday, 4/2/18 and some stats may be out of date.

David Peralta – Go check and see if he isn’t owned, he shouldn’t not be if you needed to know.  Yes, double negatives are how I roll. Leading off and getting on-base in front of everyone in that lineup is too tantalizing a thing.

Kevin Pillar – In the land of the slow, the three-eyed steal man is king.  Got all three swipes in one Saturday affair with Yankee pitchers.  I am pretty sure all the Yankee pitchers involved are married so call your commish and say that this is cheating.  The shifting around of Blue Jay outfielders may make him sit more often than some would like, but he should be in there three-out-of-four, so catch and release accordingly.

Matt Duffy –  Everyone is always looking for a CI with SAG appeal, especially when not many qualify.  Duffy is getting all day starts for the all bad Rays.  If he can get on base at a .330 clip you can expect 10 steals by the All Star break.

Jarrod Dyson – How long before the D-Backs realize that he should be used as this generations Herb Washington?  Stop giving this dude at-bats at the expense of others. Gosh-nabbit.

Addison Russell – Do you think that as he remembers that he has a bat, he can actually remember that he had a 20 steal season in the minors four years ago? Basically was drafted as a punt MI for most of the owners, but rewarding so far and I am on the speculative tip that it continues for a bit.  Has one steal so far so if he gets one more we may have something.

Keynan Middleton – The Sciosch is gonna Sciosch period.  Baby Bedrock was used before he went to Keynian. Not really a citizen or an actual spelling, but in the land of SAGNOF all are free range savers.  I would own Bedrosian than Middleton before Parker.

George Kontos – Relax with the Felipe stuff.  George got the off day save as expected.

Shane Greene – Has looked shaky in two straight appearances and with the Tigers going not really anywheres fast who will be next is a popular question.  Youth wise, I wanna say Joe Jimenez gets the nod, but to me it will be a a speculative add for Alex Wilson if you are fishing for the first closer casualty.

Dellin Betances – Relying to much on a fastball that he can’t locate, but hitters are locating either into seats or for hits. has elite type K stuff as you know, and if you didn’t just re-read that and act surprised.  D-Rob and Kahnle got mushed in first attempt at odds and evens Yankee bullpen stuff.  Boone is going to find a way to pair the relievers to pitch on the same days if and when he can.  So far, it has been Green/Betances with multiple outings.  That should continue and ownership wise it’s Green/Betances/D-Rob/Kahnle for me.

  1. Rob says:
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    do you think Mondesi starts for KC when healthy?

    • LenFuego says:
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      @Rob: Starts? Not really. But he is a 22 year old who, if he is not getting a decent dose of major league at-bats, needs to be in the minors getting everyday at-bats. So I have to believe they will find a way to get him in the lineup on a reasonably regular basis. If he runs with that opportunity and show himself to be valuable, then he has a chance to morph into a regular starter.

  2. fredtbn1gs says:
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    Who do you prefer, Middleton or Archie Bradley for speculative saves?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @fredtbn1gs: I think Bradley gets more multi inning tyoe saves than Middleton lucks into saves with the Angels

  3. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Rob: with only Alcides in his way for at bats it looks completely possible

  4. True and Correct says:
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    Do you anticipate Johnson before Middleton ?
    Fields up next ?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @True and Correct: yes I do. Either Fields or Alexander. But there’s no replacing Kenley

  5. birrrdy! says:
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    so you are NOT in favor of getting Dyson ABs? He’s my sneaky perfect definition of SAGNOF that I just picked up off waivers. Not sexy at all except thos 28+ SB years he seems to be consistently logging. What am I missing? Are you a bitter Tomas owner?? :)

    • birrrdy! says:
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      @birrrdy!: Dyson last 6 seasons…. average ABs: 268 average SBs: 31

      More ABs = SAGNOF juiciness!!!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @birrrdy!: no I mean just use him as a SAGNOF guy off the bench keeps him sneaky for all of us. Too many at bats too much exposure.

      • birrrdy! says:
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        @Smokey: oooohhhh. Got it now. Thx.

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