Much like last year, what a time to be alive. The era of the stolen base is here to stay and I am loving it. Just take a look at the Stolen Base leaderboard below. We are barely ten games into the season and we’ve got guys on pace for 100 steals. We have 26 players who have already snagged three bags. (That’s ten more than last year at the time of writing of the week 2 article.) Manny Machado has already stolen five bags for crying out loud!
Here’s the early stolen base leaderboard and it’s crazy.
Just a reminder in case you missed last week’s article about our stolen base streaming service here at Razzball called the Speed Dial
What do I look at when checking out stolen base targets you ask?
There’s the obvious things like Stolen Base success ratios. This would be stolen bases compared to times caught stealing. There is player sprint speed which is usually a great indicator of future success. Also, SB/PA helps find the guys who may only be contributing in one thing like Dairon Blanco.
On the defensive side of things, I think the most important thing is SB/IP for pitchers as this gives some insight into guys that allow traffic and struggle with keeping guys close and not allowing large jumps by the runners. The pitcher is a much bigger factor than the catcher in determining how teams attack on the base paths. Time to home plate under 1.3 seconds is usually more difficult to steal off and guys over 1.4 seconds make the job al lot easier. Now that is not to say the catchers don’t play a part. For instance, teams always run on Keibert Ruiz. Why? His Pop Time is slow, and his arm strength is weak.
There are tools available to look at all these things, but I’m here to save you time and help you pummel your Fantasy Friends into submission on the bases.
Here’s our look at this week’s Speed Dials. Remember these are players available in more then 50% of ESPN leagues. Also please keep in mind I am writing this on Sunday and by the time Tuesday rolls around my projected starters may have changed. It’s even more volatile early in the year as teams lock in their rotation plans.
Rays vs Angels – Tuesday April 8th
Jonny Deluca – Jonny is raking to start the year hitting .435 and boasting a .480 OBP. He has a Top 10 MLB sprint speed, and gets a juicy match-up versus Kyle Hendriks on Tuesday. The Professor is fairly quick to home plate which limits success rate percent against him at only 72.7%, but he has allowed plenty of traffic the last few years which means chances are going to happen. Logan O’Hoppe should be behind the dish and he ranks right in the middle of all qualifying catchers when it comes to cutting down runners since the beginning of last year.
A surprise IL stint this morning, sad times, see if anyone has tossed back Jake Mangum for a steal chance
Rockies vs Brewers – Wednesday April 9th
Sal Frelick – You never wanna make outs on the base paths at Coors Field, but Ryan Feltner allows a cool .186 SB/IP due to major traffic issues and a slow delivery to home. Frelick is 20 for 24 since the start of last year converting stolen base chances doing it with a sprint speed of 29.3 Ft/second. Both Jacob Stallings and Hunter Goodman are below average at throwing out runners so the whole Brewers team should have the green light on Wednesday.
Braves vs Phillies – Thursday April 10th
Brandon Marsh – Johan Rojas, the second fastest player in baseball is going to be a Speed Dial a whole lot this year. It’s really just checking to see if he’s in the lineup which hasn’t happened much as the Phillies go to Marsh with a righty on the mound. That’s the case with AJ Smith-Shawver going Thursday. ASS as we’ll call him only has 3 starts in MLB the last two year, but has allowed four stolen bases in just over 12 innings and hasn’t caught a runner yet. Chadwick Tromp is above average behind the dish at cutting down runners, but I don’t think ASS gives him a chance. As for Marsh, he’s 19 for 23 on the bases since the start of 2024.
Mariners vs Rangers – Friday April 11th
Ryan Bliss – He needs to get going on the hitting or he won’t be up long, but his walk rate is elite and he’s 2 for 2 on stolen bases to start the season even though he’s only been on base 8 times so far. I’m projecting lefty Cody Bradford to start Friday so he should be in the lineup. Bradford allows 89% success for runners and .105 SB/IP. Jonah Heim is below average throwing out runners and Kyle Higashioka is 118th out of 121 catchers who have a stolen base attempt against them since the start of last year. In other words, if Kyle is catching game on!
