Rolling In The Deep: Looking For Late Outfield Value

By the time you read this, we’ll have officially turned the calendar page to March, and I for one couldn’t be happier that we’re down to mere weeks before opening day. We’ve spent the last month or so looking at each infield position and now it’s time to head to the outfield. Since there are more outfielders to chat about than we can possibly get to in one spring, let alone one post, it’s finally time to get into deep-league gear. We’ll take a big jump down the ADP board (using recent NFBC data just from the last week, which covers 37 drafts) to see if we can find some interesting outfield names that might be valuable in relation to where they are currently being drafted. But instead of looking specifically at overall ADP, we’ll do something a little different and rank players based on the earliest they’ve been drafted over that time. I always find it interesting to look at both the earliest and latest drafted spots when checking ADP (immediate stand-out example, just in the last few days and since signing with the Phillies, Whit Merrifield has been picked at #93, and at #347!!) Of course, it’s also a particularly good time to remember to use ADP as a helpful guide, but not let it affect your own valuation of players too much, if at all. And ADP is likely to be volatile in the coming days and weeks — now that spring training is finally fully underway, fast and furious player value changes are certain to follow. All this means it’s more important than ever to try to keep up with important injury news and positional battles without letting BestShapeOfHisLife noise get into your head.

I’ll use the top 250 as my guide, because looking at the list of names of outfielders who’ve been drafted no earlier than that, it’s about where my mixed league 15-team drafts have been ending. For what it’s worth, some of the outfielders who I don’t mind at the end of those 15-teamers (or as mixed league bench players/fliers with some value upside this late) include Brendan Donovan, Jack Suwinski, Nelson Velazquez, Parker Meadows, Sal Frelick, Will Benson, Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker.

Okay, now outside that top 250!

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Leody Taveras. The last couple drafts I’ve done have been OBP leagues so I kind of forgot about Leody as I’m not too interested in him in that format. He does get lost in the shuffle in the impressive Rangers lineup, and the fact that he’s likely to hit 9th obviously isn’t a plus. But as a fast switch hitter who provides stellar defense, he should still be able to accumulate deep league worthy counting stats. He went 14/14 last year in 143 games, and if the hand soreness he experienced later in the season affected his ability to hit at all, I could see him eclipsing both those numbers if he stays healthy in 2024. 15/15 certainly seems like a reachable projection, and I don’t think 20/20 is out of the question. Seems pretty good for a guy whose minimum NFBC pick this past week was #250, and was taken as late as #341.

Matt Wallner (earliest pick #254/latest #373). Unlike Taveras, Wallner makes a great late OBP target as he’s always had a solid walk rate. His real calling card is his power, however, which pretty much any analytical metric will confirm. The metrics can’t tell us whether he’ll ever be able to fully take the next step on a consistent basis in terms of hitting MLB pitching, but so far things look pretty good with his 14 homers in 213 at bats in 2023, with a meh but not horrible .249 average. If he can improve against lefties he could enter the shallow league conversation sooner rather than later, but for now even as a platoon player I’m deep-league interested this late.

Luke Raley (earliest #276/latest #390). Not sure if I love the landing spot in Seattle, and last year may have been an outlier in terms of his offensive production after he seemingly came out of the blue for the Rays, as so many have done before him. But at this price I’ve bought a couple shares; seems like a decent value for a guy who’s on the strong side of a platoon, also qualifies at first, and who went 19/14 in 357 ABs last year.

Ryan O’Hearn (earliest #291/latest #452). Yet another 1B/OF qualifier, I thought I’d have him on a couple teams by now given how late he’s going, and yet somehow it hasn’t happened. I’d say it might be time to do as I say not as I do, though, as in a very deep league I think he’s worth keeping an eye on as we see how playing time shakes out for the Orioles this year (and particularly how strong Ryan Mountcastle’s grip on first base proves to be). O’Hearn was solid after he arrived in Baltimore from Kansas City last year, including hitting .273 with 3 homers and 15 RBI in the month of September.

Ceddanne Rafaela (earliest #298/latest #465) /Wilyer Abreu (earliest #298/latest #448). The Red Sox outfielders seemingly fighting for one roster spot have almost identical ADPs. I’d say Abreu came into spring as the favorite to land a major league job, and may still hold that title, with Rafaela being the defensive specialist with an impatient approach at the plate who likely needs minor league seasoning. The earliest spring results, though, have Abreu struggling to get a hit while Rafaela has been thriving, so this is one of the more interesting battles this spring in my opinion.  I drafted Rafaela way back in October and have picked up a couple more shares since then, and also got Abreu late in one draft and hold, and it sure seems like someone’s stock here could go way up in a hurry. Of course, getting a job is just the first step as we see if either can make a fantasy splash even with playing time, so this could be an evolving situation all season.

Tommy Pham (earliest #299/latest #463). I haven’t read a ton of buzz (or any?) about interest in Pham, who is currently a free agent, which combined with his penchant for making news with his off-the-field antics rather than his baseball prowess makes him nearly impossible to project. He may end up being useless in even ultra deep leagues, but if he somehow turns up in a favorable MLB situation, let’s not forget he had 16 homers and 22 steals in his 426 ABs last year.

It’s interesting how few players there are that I’d want to roster at even a bargain-basement price once we use the highest pick number rather than overall ADP. (I think this is partly because most of the hyped up prospect-types who have overall late ADPs have been grabbed crazy early in at least one or two drafts). In the 400-500 pick range, I think the only player I have rostered (in a 50-round draft and hold) is J.J. Bleday (min 478/max 640), who did have a few flashes of success last year and certainly should continue to see regular at bats with the A’s. Outside the top 500, it’s Connor Joe (504/656). I can’t imagine he’ll play much, but we’re talking about the end of a deep draft here looking for depth, and at least he has that 1B/OF eligibility bonus.

Hope draft season has been treating you well so far, and thanks for reading!