Rhett Lowder, 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Already gave you my Bubba Chandler fantasy, there’s gonna be some random Braves’ rookie who dons the Shroud of Touki and becomes a number two starter for 2025 and here’s Rhett Lowder. I’m not sure I’m going to write up another rookie pitcher. Just filling you in on my thought process. Rookie pitchers can be good — the random Touki, for unstints — they can be great every 25 years — Paul Skenes comes to mind — but for the most part they dole out roofies and cause major heartache after getting your hopes up — Jared Jones is one such example. I’m clearly aware of the Rangers’ big two rookie arms; Jacob Misiorowski is a week away or four years away, and supposedly the Angels have a good arm in Caden, but the last Dana that was pure was Plato. There will be rookie pitchers that pitch a tent in March when it appears they’re going to break the rotation (and they’ll be good until June when they blow up, once again like Jared Jones), but to speculate on those guys now feels like a fool’s errand. And I ain’t no fool, he said as he grabbed his oversized shoes and piled into a tiny car with 12 other clowns. To be completely honest, I’m not sure I’d be here writing a Rhett Lowder 2025 fantasy outlook post — and guess what I’m doing! — if it wasn’t for his numbers after call-up. He had a 1.17 ERA in 30 2/3 IP. Crazy. What’s even crazier — Studio audience, “What’s even crazier?!” — he did it with some of the worst peripherals I’ve ever seen, 6.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 38.5% ground ball rate and a 89.7% LOB%. I don’t even know why I’m writing this post anymore. So, what can we expect from Rhett Lowder for 2025 fantasy baseball?

Let’s see some highlights, the hairdresser said as they frosted tips. Take it, Highlights! Wait, that’s confusing. Any hoo:

Rhett Lowder, Disgusting 87mph Changeup. ? pic.twitter.com/WdjxylB3DD

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 23, 2023

Here’s a little butter:

Rhett Lowder’s 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/sqqCuNcwgh

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2024

And he’s toast:

Big league strikeout No. 1 for Rhett Lowder!

From last year’s 7th overall pick to The Show in just over 13 months, MLB’s No. 34 prospect ascended the @Reds system swiftly in his first pro campaign. pic.twitter.com/RjT0qxV7RV

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 30, 2024

So, we’re clearly here for the stuff and what he did prior to his debut with the Reds. This — 6.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 38.5% ground ball rate and a 89.7% LOB% — seems like a full-on anomaly. It’s a 30-inning stint that isn’t representative of anything, methinks, as I talk like a leprechaun. Rhett Lowder works off a 95 MPH fastball, then there’s the 85 MPH slider, followed by a 93 MPH sinker, and eventually the 88 MPH change. He is an Induce Weak Contact Guy, so having peripherals saying he’s not pitching as well as his ERA might be a thing for him. As an IWCG doesn’t need Ks; an IWCG needs dinkers! Give him dinkers!

Rhett Lowder induced 31% Hard Contact last year — same as Shota and top 30 in league if he qualified — and a 3.3% Barrel rate, which is hilariously awesome. That’s about the same as some of the best closers. Ryan Helsley had a 3.7% Barrel rate. Maybe Rhett Lowder is the second coming of Matt Cain, a guy who perennially got by with a 7+ K/9 and insane peripherals that said he should’ve had an ERA about a run higher. Or a young Gausman on the O’s before he found his next level on the Jays (before losing that level on the Jays). Either way, there’s room here for success even if the standard metrics for success are unsuccessful in identifying Lowder. Also, he’s 22 until March and just threw 139 1/3 IP across four levels, so if being ready is a positive, he’s more than. For 2025 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Rhett Lowder projections of 8-12/3.84/1.24/135 in 154 IP with a chance for more on the ratios, specifically.