The Orioles did their thing week, demoting SS Jackson Holliday and 3B Coby Mayo despite both belonging to what might be Baltimore’s best opening day lineup. I got a kick out of a recent article claiming the Orioles didn’t get where they are by tanking. I like the project, as a position-statement-type writing assignment. Tough side to support. I mean sure they Rule 5 drafted Anthony Santander and played him every day until he was functional. Sure they landed Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish via strategic quitting. They also did other stuff, but that doesn’t change the fact that they lost as badly as possible for several years to get to where they are now. They did smart stuff, for sure, but I don’t know why it’s bad to call this reality by its name.
On the field, you can make a case that Holliday is better off in Triple-A, but Coby Mayo is the right-handed bat this team says it needs. He has nothing to prove in the minors and would make them better today. His demotion feels like it’s purely about player control and is perfectly in line with the kind of front office fuckery that built the Astros and Orioles. Because hey, it works. That’s why they manipulate the calendar this way. I’m not saying it’s inherently evil or whatever. Just charting reality and calling it how I see it.
The Rangers are what it can look like when a team doesn’t tank, and they look even better with OF Wyatt Langford in their opening day outfield. It feels good to see a player earn their chance and then actually get one.
Cubs LHP Jordan Wicks claimed the fourth starter spot, and RHP Javier Assad pitched well enough that he pushed Drew Smyly to the bullpen. Both are intriguing sleepers.
Tigers RHP Casey Mize looked fantastic all spring, adding velocity and rediscovering his trademark splitter. He’s going to be rostered and started in leagues of all shapes and sizes this year. Top 50 starting pitcher for me. I saw him in the 70s among just American League pitchers earlier this year.
Marlins RHP Max Meyer has officially locked down a rotation spot to open the season after posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in seven spring innings across three starts. I wish I had him everywhere.
Pirates C Henry Davis has four home runs and a slash line of .306/.381/.694. He’s been a target of mine all winter, especially when the front office started saying Yasmani Grandal would catch a lot of games. Davis has since smashed spring training and earned public praise from the pitching staff for work behind the plate. I think he’ll finish 2024 as a top five catcher.
Speaking of young catchers rising in the rankings, Yankees C Austin Wells is slashing .344/.417/.656 with two home runs. I think he’ll be in the lineup most nights and finish in the top ten.
Yankees RHP Luis Gil has been electric this spring, striking out 23 batters in 15.2 innings and recording a 0.83 WHIP. Free agent Jordan Montgomery remains a wild card, but on performance, Gil appears to have won a rotation spot. Clayton Beeter has been fine, and Clarke Schmidt has posted a 1.17 WHIP in 12 innings, but Gil gives them the best chance at unveiling an impact arm, and they’ve got two spots to spread among these three guys. .
Nationals 3B Trey Lipscomb is making a run at a roster spot in Washington. A third round pick out of Washington in 2022, Lipscomb has been lauded for his defense at camp and is slashing .364/.429/.523 with a homer and a steal in 49 plate appearances. He posted a 102 wRC+ in 80 games at Double-A this season, so it’s not a wild idea that Lipscomb could help this team right away in 2024. He walked just 3.6 percent of the time in Double-A but is at 10.2 percent so far in spring training.
Mariners OF Dominic Canzone is hitting; Mariners OF Luke Raley is not. Seattle is invested in both via trader Jerry’s machinations, so I’m not sure pedigree or price will play much of a role in who gets the most at bats. Canzone has three homers and two steals this spring along with a 162 wRC+. He could be a useful piece even in shallow leagues. The loser of this derby seems poised to leave town, so to speak, considering Mitch Garver is parked at DH.
Cardinals LHP Zack Thompson won a rotation spot in St. Louis, which is real cool considering I bet on him to do so last year but not this year. Not “bet” like I’m interpreting for Ohtani but “bet” as in rostered in some deep leagues. Anywho, Thompson posted a 1.06 WHIP and 2.81 ERA in 16 spring innings and should be a functional fantasy contributor in deepish leagues.
Royals OF Dairon Blanco made the team in Kansas City. Need some steals on speed dial? This is a space worth watching.
Astros RHP Ronel Blanco claimed the fifth spot thanks to a spotless spring. He may move to a middle-man role when Justin Verlander returns, but no sense staring the gift horse in the mouth if you need the innings. He’s posted a 0.64 WHIP and 0.00 ERA in 15.2 spring frames.
Thanks for reading!
Lawlar was pretty high in your February Top 25 prospects. Is he worth a spot in a 10 tm keeper ($1) to contribute early and often in 2024? Limited bench spots are fairly important since I have a handful of injuries to open the season. He’d be replaced on my roster with a Luis Rengifo-type.
AL/NL-only minors drafts coming up. 3 minors slots, and league rules make it tough to drop anyone barring an IL stint, so there’s perhaps a larger than average bump for proximity as you can promote underperforming big leaguers out of your lineup and backfill a minors slot with someone decent. I usually keep at least one minors slot open post-draft to backfill as the season shakes out, unless I have someone I know is gonna be promoted early and clear a slot.
AL: looking like at my first round pick I’ll have at least 3 of DeLauter, Manzardo, Basallo, Jobe and Spencer Jones available. Who are your top options given the format? Also, I’m keeping Tiedemann, who’ll get promoted from the jump if he makes the OD roster. In that case, would it make sense to fill my last slot with a Lazaro Montes type, or keep it open?
NL: best options will likely be Saggese, Jett Williams, maybe Smith-Shawver. Who ya got?
Ended up w/ DeLauter AND Jobe in AL and Saggese AND Smith-Shawver in NL. I can live with that.
To answer your question about “tanking”, it’s really a matter of intent and context. It’s supposed to mean intentionally hoping to lose, usually for long-term betterment; however, a lot of folks lump in bad-context teams that would have to work a lot to even be mediocre in the short-term and choose to husband resources until it has set up a better foundation, which really shouldn’t be seen as the same thing.
Tanking is a bigger threat in the NBA (where certain #1 overall draft picks can change a franchise from nothing to a favorite, sometimes literally by themselves) and NFL (where the right #1 pick can set up to land a presumed generational QB prospect, who can very much alter the course of a franchise). MLB doesn’t have anything close to as clear a benefit to being a bottom loser, meaning less incentive to want to win. However, what it does have is a system in which resources still can shift how many wins a team can get at any given time, plus a major imbalance of resources team to team. That means some teams exist in the concept of a handicap in terms of resources, one that would be unwise to not take a “cycles” mindset in which it times extra investment for upswings in roster foundation and then conserves during downswings.
Reviewing the Orioles, we should remember that they had just seen a prior upturn slam shut. After 14 straight losing seasons (that had been okay to start and then slowly slid to “bad” territory) in a tough division, the franchise had finally gotten itself going enough to break out in 2012, leading to a nice 5 year run and 3 playoff appearances. But go back and look at that last good team (2016), then the drop to 75 win team of 2017, and then the plummet to an “!!!” 115 losses in 2018. The collapse in performance was massive, and yet it didn’t come as a result of any wave of selling off that one normally might expect.
Instead, you can see that the Orioles didn’t have the strongest sustained core to ride in the first place, and then had tried to supplement their flawed foundation with spending that very much did not work out. In other words, the franchise looked up in 2018 and realized they had little to hang their hats on, had tons of their limited assets underwater, and on top of that without having tried to tank were as bad as it gets. Ruh roh! Former foundational piece Matt Wieters didn’t have the height or length of peak hoped for, Adam Jones was declining, Chris Davis’s contract is one of the biggest disasters in MLB history, lots more was sunken into the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez and Mark Trumbo and Alex Cobb, would-be rotation mainstays Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy never got on track, etc. And the one big keeper (Machado) was hitting FA, with no reason to want to stick around.
What is a mid-level-market-at-best franchise with zero young core guys, lots of bad money, a haven’t-yet-sold-off-the-roster huge loser (reminder, 115 losses), and not much in the way of a minor league system at the time supposed to do? Answer: stop investing good money into bad, focus on rebuilding the system, and begin opening spots for young guys with fringe promise to see whether any keepers can be found. It’s absolutely senseless to present a refusal to invest for the sake getting under 90 losses (basically the best Baltimore could hope for at the time) as “tanking”, especially when the only guys who would accept being bought into such a situation would need to be badly overpaid and/or come with major flaws (and thus risk making things worse rather than better).
To illustrate this from a different team context, one could argue that the Boston Red Sox the past few years have been doing the big-market version of this. Their roster was already strong enough and their “pulled back” resources large enough that falling into annual 90+ loss territory was never on the table, barring a true tank job (and, again, MLB doesn’t provide much incentive for that). Instead, one could argue that they noticed their “needs a few years to blossom” farm system, collection of enough bad money to anchor things down, and increasingly competitive division (arguably the toughest in baseball history these past two seasons) and knew that the best a push could garner is a non-true-contending fringe playoff team…to what point and purpose, if it wouldn’t be confident enough in getting to the playoffs or in stringing enough playoff wins to make a real run? Unless ownership really is just happy to hold money and that’s it (always possible), perhaps it’s just about withholding investment in overpaid/imperfect outside pieces until the product on hand and system behind it is more ready for sustained success – a withholding that would leave extra ready to be put in at that time. That the open market has gotten a bit silly with AAVs and contract lengths the last couple of years, to go with the AL East gauntlet, means the timing does line up. True or not, just because a franchise with more resources gets to enjoy a higher floor when “withholding” doesn’t mean the Orioles should be slapped with the scarlet T just because their window of competitiveness atrophied rapidly at the same time as their decision to hit pause. That’s my view, anyway!
The Orioles lost 110 games in 2021, the most in baseball.
Adley Rutschman played 123 games at AA and AAA that season, slashing .285/.397/.502.
If they weren’t losing on purpose to get the first pick, Rutschman would’ve been part of the major league team.
I think it’s more valuable in baseball than the other sports because it’s a structural advantage in two player pools instead of one. Budgets aren’t dolled out per pick and manipulated by the teams with most money the same way in other sports.
Would you drop E Rod for Mize or Meyer?
Not if you can IL E Rod in a couple days
Gil or Jared Jones
Gil
Delautwe can’t ve down long that Cleveland team and OF could use him
20 days after Opening day does he get the call?
I don’t think so
If Cleveland smells a superstar, that might work against an early promotion
Good Afternoon Itch,
Would you drop Bradish for Mize or Gil? If I wait for Bradish to be placed on the IL, I would miss out on both. Also, would you take either of them over Varland? Thanks for the help!
Good Afternoon Hamporter,
I would not drop Bradish. Arms are weird. Maybe Bradish will pitch this year. Either way I’d wait for the IL spot.
I would take Mize and/or Gil over Varland though.
Good stuff! How do you rank Meyer, Mize, & Gil for this season? Does your rank change for future value?
Thanks!
Pretty fluid but I’d go Mize, Gil, Meyer at the moment.
Future value, Meyer jumps Gil.
Thanks, Itch!
Need a 3rd base add
Whose up sooner n expected stats for
Mayo or Caminero
Thanks Itch
Mayo’s probably up sooner.
That LF fence works against him.
Caminero will hit 20-something homers.
What up Itch! Long time reader – 1st time asker… great work. Full dyno 25 cats and year 13. Need an SP to take that magic ride with. Grey typically says ask you so here we go. Btw my starters are all good but only 2 start a week. So I have time…
Thanks in advance! Cheers
Gore Mize houck sanchez Meyer stone
Rank top 3 please… thx
Thanks, CJ!
Mize
Meyer
Stone
Gore
By Sanchez do you mean Sixto? If so, then here.
Houck
Thanks! Actual Christopher Sanch… not sure that helps any… haha
Much appreciated!
Hey Itch! Always love your updates! High on 2 stud LH sticks, J. Wood and S. Jones. Who do you like best long term?
sorry bout the double post didn’t show up at first
No worries, I prefer J. Wood but Jones looked pretty impressive this spring in his own right.
Thanks Itch! High on two LH sticks with strikeout issues. Do you think both J. Wood and S. Jones both make it up at some point? Wood seemingly has the better shot, but Jones sure is intriguing.
Hey, Smitty!
I think Wood will debut before the All-Star break.
Jones might be a September situation.
Front office fuckery. Nice touch. Perfect description.
Winker makes the roster and they sign Rosario. Wood not going to get called up anytime soon. Same with the Pirates and Skenes. Like he isn’t one of their 5 best pitchers. Horse$hit.
Who are a couple of guys who you think will make a big jump that we should acquire before their price rises? I’ve got a few open NA spots to play with. Thanks
And this is dynasty, not redraft. Thanks
Thanks : )
Yeah that Rosario signing is a tough look. Just a bunch of ABs that won’t go to Wood or Crews or even Jacob Young.
How deep are we talking here? Joendrys Vargas could jump quick. Jefferson Rojas. Josue De Paula. Rayner Arias.
Thanks itch. 14 and 16 team leagues, 40 man rosters. 2 of the 4 are available. Thanks
Morning Itch. Thanks for writing this piece!
What do you think how the FA market played out this year and they had players either shortened or no ST time at all? Seems like an injury risk for the players.
Also do you have any names of FYP from the 2024 international class outside of the top10 we should keep an eye on?
Morning, junior56. Thanks!
Yeah I’m pretty skeptical of Snell and Jordan Montgomery, if he signs somewhere. But I don’t know if it makes them riskier, injury wise. I’d think yes, but I also kinda think we’re pretty clueless on arm management at the moment.
Not yet on the new kids. Won’t know a whole lot about how those guys are faring for a while.
Hi Itch,
Great work as always.
When do you think the Orioles guys get called up? Particularly Mayo.
Thanks
Thanks, JSF,
Mayo is doing the 20-day dance. I don’t think he’d be in the minors much beyond that even in a worst case scenario.
Holliday is trickier. He hasn’t played much 2B. Might get a little of the waiting-game Gunnar treatment from a few years back.
What is your opinion on Jared Jones. I think he is making the pirate starting 5. He has looked great this spring
Nasty stuff. It’s tough to make a profit betting on Pittsburgh to develop a pitcher. I make an exception for Skenes because he’s pretty much developed, but I don’t feel all that confident in Pittsburgh’s ability to help him stay right.
Jones is intriguing, but he’s much closer to a normal sort of solid pitching prospect than Skenes, so I’ll probably let this ship pass me by.
What up Itch.
Give me your top five prospects heading into the 2025 season.
Howdy, malamoney,
I’m working on a fresh top of the list for Opening Day and was thinking I could include a top five for 2025 in it.
Samuel Basallo for sure.
I think Lazaro and X Isaac are in the running.
It’s such a moving target. Walker Jenkins and Sebastian Walcott are in the running.
NO mention of RHP Jared Jones of Pirates and possibly 2B Thomas Saggese of the Cards. He has hit a ton and play 2B,3B and SS. Yesterday he came in late in the game at SS and hit a 2B that drove in a run in a 2-2 game.
I covered Saggese in the bold predictions piece this week: https://razzball.com/prospect-news-bold-predictions-for-2024/
Hi Itch,
12 team 6×6 roto with 4 BN spots and a NA slot. Have Holliday and Caminero on my bench. Suggestion on who to put into the NA slot and if it makes sense to keep the other on my bench. My current 3B and MI are Keith, O. Cruz, K. Marte, Westburg, and E Duran on my bench.
Thanks
Hi, cubbiebearz,
Yeah I’d hold em both. Holliday to the NA.
Thanks Itch.
Great read Itch! I always look for your articles first thing.
Thanks for the kind words!!!
I look forward to this each week! Any word on Thomas Saggese?
Thanks, Dollar Dog Dave.
I discussed Saggese in my bold predictions post this week (and in the comments):
https://razzball.com/prospect-news-bold-predictions-for-2024/
Thank you itch! What are your thoughts on Nick Loftin? He made the the club, always liked him, super utility role? Do you think the playing time is there? Thank you!
Yeah I like him, too.
They’re calling him a utility guy, but I think he’ll be in the lineup five times a week. Can’t really justify playing Adam Frazier over him imo.
Hello Itch…..
I know Meyer was a high draft pick but is he “that” for real. In a keeper what pitchers would you lump him in with?
Hey Homer’s got the Runs,
Yeah I think he’s unique. He was a high probability big league starter when he was taken 3rd overall and has mostly cruised through the system. He’s a dynamic athlete, much more fluidity and balance than is typical for a pitcher. I saw someone (Nick Pollack) say he’d get bumped once Edward Cabrera gets back, and I don’t agree. Cabrera isn’t especially close to Meyer imo.
It’s kind of a strange grouping, but I do put him in the Mize bucket as an extremely talented arm who has more to show us than we’ve seen so far.
So you still take Mize over him in a keeper? Small rosters so both are available. I have one of the top teams but always looking for the next breakout.
The Itch!!!!
As always fantastic intelligence, many thanks.
a. The team in a 12-team roto league
Naylor
Belli
Semien
Ke’Bryan
Witt
Turner
Gelof
Chisolm, Chourio, Duran, Adolis, Esteury
Frelick
Bello, Garrett, Lugo, Luzardo, Maeda, Megill, BryceM, Snell, GStone
Mason Miller, EDiaz, Hunter Harvey
Mize, Wicks and Gil all available. Add any of them and over whom? Braxton’s spot will also be available once Fantrax enables IL-eligible players to go to the IL.
b. Chris Rock quote of the day for March 24, 2024
Now that I have children, I realize taking care of my children is more fun than anything in the whole world.
Cheers,
Ante
Maybe not Mize ;-)
Haha, N1.
Thanks, Ante!
That’s a fantastic Rock quote.
I prefer all three over Megill. I’d probably take Mize at this point.