Points Leagues: Ov-La-Di, Ov-La-Da Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the most talked about prospect since I can remember, and his debut has been one of the most anticipated events since many of us have begun playing fantasy baseball. Congratulations to everyone that owns him in keeper leagues as you have very likely just won the lottery. I guess you did that when you picked him up, but now it’s official. I can see Vlad being a top ten hitter from this point on in point leagues. I watched all four of his at bats Friday night and he looked good. Very good. He had some excellent swings, nearly missing a blast at least once. He had a great eye, better than the ump who was calling strikes on the pitches just low and outside. And I like how he went the the other way for a double while protecting the plate with two strikes. I’ll take 1-4 with a double and a run scored in his debut. That’s good for three points and if he scores just three points in each of the Blue Jays remaining 136 games, he will fall solidly into the top ten rest of season. It’s not hype when it’s true. Unlike Han Solo, I’ve got a good feeling about this (kid).

Despite being a no doubt first rounder in points leagues, Jose Ramirez has actually been outperformed by Hanley Ramirez. Jose isn’t even the best Ramirez on the Indians. Well I guess he is now considering Hanley was designated for assignment on 4/20, which also happens to be Tim Lincecum’s favorite day of the year. My intention isn’t to pile on Jose by highlighting his terrible start, instead I want to tell that you I expect him to have a major turnaround. According to my calculations he will have the biggest positive difference in points per week than any other hitter. There’s really no buy low opportunity for a clear top ten guy, but he’s certainly someone I’d be seeking to acquire even at a dollar on the dollar.

From one Jose to another. This time Peraza. His name sounds like a car made by Nissan. His YTD performance feels like he was made by Kia. Peraza is not going to hit .157 all season. He’s a .276 career hitter. I realize he’s only played two full seasons, but that’s another reasonable thing to point out. He’s only 24 years young. He’s going to steal twenty bases and I believe he will hit double digit dingers. I’ve got him as a top 100 bat rest of season. I realize “top 100” doesn’t sound very impressive, but in a 12-team league that starts ten hitters, it feels like he should be owned in more than just 62 percent of leagues.

From one Jose to another to another! Did you know that there are three Jose Martinez’s in the league? At least there are three in CBS’s player pool. The one to which I am referring is the one on the Cardinals. With injuries in St. Louis, Martinez is getting the opportunity to play, and that’s exactly the opportunity he needed. The dude is a .300 hitter and with that comes points. All he needed was the chance to play and now he’s got that. As long as he’s in the Cardinals starting lineup, he should very well be in yours.

Here are a few more hitters I expect to turn things around.

After hitting 35 home runs last year and batting .274, Jesus Aguilar has zero home runs with a .132 average. Anyone not expect those numbers to correct themselves?

At age 35 Joey Votto is absolutely in the declining stages of his career. However, I do not think he is ready to fall off as far as his YTD stats indicate. I was higher than most coming into 2019, and while I’ve downgraded his ROS projections, they still fall into the top 40 hitters.

I’d also keep a close eye on Endergame Inciarte. He’s a bit of a conundrum. He typically averages a 0.57 PPPA which isn’t that great. However, he typically puts up points since he gets his fair share of plate appearances. The last two years he’s been a top 20 outfielder with respect to points. His current PPPA is 0.34 and I can’t imagine that staying steady. I don’t like that he’s batting ninth, but I don’t blame the Braves. I really wish he’d either shit or get off the pot because he’s clogging up several of my rosters.

Nicholas Castellanos, Travis Shaw, Yasiel Puig and Manny Machado should all see sunnier days ahead.

On the flip side, here are a few bats that might help you more by being traded and selling high. Tim Lincecum always sells high. Obviously neither Bellinger nor Yelich can maintain their currently paces, but I wouldn’t be trading them for any less than a kings ransom.

While I have highlighted him in a previous post, Alex Gordon will never be able to convince me that he can continue his hot start throughout the season. Even if he does keep this up, I’d still look to trade him and I will not be looking to draft him in 2020. A few others I see as sells are Joc Pederson, Kolten Wong, Hunter Dozier and Trey Mancini. Some questionables include Maikel Franco, Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson and Yandy Diaz.

Here are the top 40 hitter based on points per plate appearances:

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