Greetings all and welcome to the post-Memorial Day, all-Giants edition of One Man’s Trash. If you took a fantasy vacation over the weekend in favor of the consumption of mass quantities of alcohol and charred animal flesh, well, good for you. That’s what the holidays are all about – gluttony. Oh, and family and stuff, if you’re into that kind of thing. In case you missed it, I’m here to inform you that Brandon Crawford (+35.3%) was the most added player in fantasy baseball this past week. While you’re feasting on leftover burgers and potato salad this afternoon, you might be surprised to learn that Crawford ranks 1st among all qualified MLB shortstops in RBIs (31), on-base percentage (.382), and slugging percentage (.514), is tied for 1st with 6 HR, and is in the top 4 in both runs scored (23 – 4th) and batting average (.301 – 3rd) at that position. He’s even chipped in 2 steals as well. His .345 BABIP (.296 career) and 15.8% HR/FB (6.7% career) suggest that his batting average and power numbers are likely to regress somewhat, but his K% is slightly down, LD% is slightly up, and his 38.8% hard hit percentage is 2nd among shortstops and 20th best in all of baseball. Also, the HR/FB ratio might not regress as much as you might think due to the fact that his 315.53 ft average fly ball distance is currently the 10th highest mark in MLB. He’s basically performed at the level that was expected of Robinson Cano coming into this season. While Crawford is unlikely to maintain his current blistering pace, everything points to this season being a career year for the 28-year-old. Enjoy the ride. Here were a couple of other big adds and drops in fantasy baseball from this past week:
Brandon Belt – 60.1% owned (+26.3%)
Have the fences at AT&T Park been moved in recently? Perhaps Barry Bonds has been dispensing nutritional supplements in the San Francisco clubhouse this season? Whatever the case may be, the Giants lead the National League during the month of May with 115 runs scored, and fantasy baseballers have taken notice. Much like Crawford, Brandon Belt has been a big reason for this offensive outburst. He’s sporting a .311/.384/.511 triple slash line on the season, including a .357/.413/.655 line during the month of May, and he’s smashed all four of his homers this month as well. Belt’s 34.7% LD% and 45.9% hard hit percentage are both the 2nd highest marks in MLB in those respective categories, and he has yet to hit an infield pop-up this entire season (151 PA). The issue is that those marks are significantly higher than his career averages and are fueling a .404 BABIP, all of which look to be wildly unsustainable. Unless he reduces his 24.5% K% as his luck stabilizes, Belt is likely to lose 30-40 points off of his current batting average. On a 16 HR pace without a steal to his credit, it’s hard to envision the breakout fantasy season that many (myself included) have been expecting for quite some time. TRASH.
Chris Heston – 26.9% owned (-13%)
Giants hitters are being added like crazy, while their pitchers are being discarded onto the waiver wire. Feels like I’m stuck in some sort of bizarre Twilight Zone episode. As far as Heston is concerned, it’s not difficult to figure out why owners have been bailing on him. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed 11 earned runs across just 7.2 IP, with 4 walks and just 4 strikeouts over that span. Ouch. Of course, those two starts were made in Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark and Colorado’s Coors Field, which are two of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. In fact, Heston has produced some of the most drastic splits among all starting pitchers this season. Take a look:
• Home (4 GS): 26 IP, 28 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 7 BB, 20 K, 1.346 WHIP, 2.77 ERA
• Away (5 GS): 28 IP, 31 H, 18 ER, 5 HR, 7 BB, 23 K, 1.357 WHIP, 5.79 ERA
• vs RHB: 132 PA, 28 H, 1 HR, 7 BB, 32 K, .228/.280/.325 BA/OBP/SLG
• vs LHB: 100 PA, 31 H, 5 HR, 7 BB, 11 K, .337/.384/.565 BA/OBP/SLG
It’s pretty clear that Heston has been effective at home and against right-handed batters, and erratic on the road and against lefties. A big factor has been his propensity to give up the long ball. Five of his six HR allowed have been on the road, including three in his most recent start at Coors Field.
Heston does have a few things going for him though. His 19.5% IFFB% is tops among all qualified SPs in MLB, and he’s one of only 10 starting pitchers to produce a K/BB ratio of at least 3 and a GB% of 50% or better, a list that includes names such as Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray, and Gerrit Cole. His next two starts are at home against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, two teams who don’t possess much left-handed thump in their lineups outside of Freddie Freeman and Pedro Alvarez. Stream away, friends. TREASURE.