As we march diligently toward the two-thirds point of the season, we are getting closer and closer to knowing who players actually are for the 2022 campaign. But, because it’s major league baseball, we are also still getting surprised every day. Jordan Montgomery is the best pitcher of the last two weeks? Randy Arozarena has many home runs the last two weeks as Vlad Guerrero and Freddie Freeman combined? What do we do with this information? Fantasy baseball is a game that forces us to act now. Who is rising and falling after four weeks of games? Who has earned our waiver love and do we dump?
This piece will look at batters and pitchers who have overperformed or underperformed in the last couple of weeks and deserve our attention in fantasy baseball.
Risers
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
One of the funniest under-the-radar stories of the 2022 MLB season was the circumstances surrounding the birth of Alex Bregman’s son on August 2. He is about the cutest little guy you will ever see, but apparently not cute enough to keep Bregman off the ball field. The Astros third baseman was scratched right before the game on August 1 against the Red Sox and placed on the paternity list. Normally when this happens, a player misses two or three days, making sure the baby is good and mom is well. But not Bregman! No sir. Just 21 hours after Bregman was placed on paternity (which allows players to miss three days), he was reactivated and put back in the lineup.
Apparently, his wife, Reagan, told him to “get out there and get some hits.” Right. Let’s be clear. One of two things happened. Bregman changed one of those first diapers filled with toxic tar and was like, “nope, gotta get back out there.” Or, his wife saw him change one of those first diapers filled with toxic tar and was like, “nope, gotta get back out there.”
But something about that day lit a torch under Bregman’s ass, and opposing baseballs have been paying the price. Since August 2nd, Bregman is slashing .378/.453/.730 (that SLG% leads the majors), has hit six home runs and driven in 19. It has turned his fantasy season around from a mediocre one to a top-seven rotisserie line. Keep on hitting Bregman, do it for little Knox.
Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Apparently, when you take the best seasons from Greg Vaughn and Marquis Grissom and mash them together, you get uber-prospect Vaughn Grissom. Grissom is the latest pipeline project from the Atlanta Braves with superstar potential, and it isn’t taking him long to showcase it. Looking across the various industry sites we see that Grissom, since he made his debut on August 10th, is tearing up every single fantasy category. In Yahoo fantasy leagues, Grissom is the fourth-best rotisseries hitter for the last 14 days. In that span, he has hit .420 with 14 runs, three homers, 10 RBI, and two stolen bases.
It’s going to be very interesting to see what the Braves do assuming Ozzie Albies makes it back sometime before the playoffs. The kid clearly has earned the right to play regularly on this club, so the solution may be to move him to the outfield in place of a player like Eddie Rosario (general suckiness, another three strikeouts on Wednesday) or Marcell Ozuna (general trash human being). A Braves’ lineup that swaps Rosario for Grisson and adds Albies to the mix immediately becomes one of the best top-to-bottom units in the league.
Edward Cabrera, SP, Miami Marlins
Whatever diet or rehab regimen the Marlins put Cabrera through when he was on the IL from mid-June until the end of July, I definitely want some of that. After many thought it was a lost season for Cabrera due to elbow tendinitis that shut him down for more than a month, he has been nothing short of a revelation since his return. Through four starts since August 5th that amassed 23 innings, Cabrera has yet to allow any runs and has averaged seven strikeouts per outing.
A prized find out of the Dominican Republic, the 24-year-old has blossomed into quite the weapon in just his second year in the majors. He has improved everything from his strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA, groundball rate, and hard contact rate. Having not debuted until June 1 this year, Cabrera actually only has one bad outing this season. Otherwise, it’s been six starts with one or zero runs allowed. I am fascinated where a pitcher like this will end up in spring 2023, but for now, a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last 30 days is phenomenal.
Fallers
Ty France, 1B, Seattle Mariners
I see London, I see France. I see a Seattle player who is blowing his best chance. The Mariners’ first baseman is coming up on his first year of arbitration before 2023, but after a very strong start to the season, he is really fizzling out here towards the end of the season. In the first half, France posted a .308/.376/.470 line with 11 homers, 18 doubles, and 49 RBI. Since that time, France is looking at a .189/.266/.295 line with three homers, one double, and just 13 RBI.
France’s strikeout rates are identical between the two halves, and his walk rate is actually better in the second half. But his groundballs have shot up over the past couple months (56.1% in the second half, 47% in the first). This smells a little bit like a player who is seeing his team’s postseason opportunity slipping away and wants to make sure he can do everything he can to get them into October for the first time since 2001. In the last 30 days, his swinging strike rate has also jumped up to over 10% now, which is another sign he is pressing. France is too talented a player to stay in this prolonged slump for too long, but it’s absolutely hitting him at the wrong time of the year.
Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Through Alek Manoah’s first 150 innings and 24 starts this season, the overall numbers look pristine. He boasts a 2.66 ERA, almost a strikeout per innings, and just 2.24 walks per nine innings. But it’s masking a darker secret that must have the Blue Jays concerned and has a clear point where it all began. In his start on July 29th, Manoah was hit in the elbow by a comebacker to the mound. It didn’t end up being anything serious, and no IL trip was necessary. But since that time, the numbers for Manoah have fallen straight off a cliff.
In the last month, Manoah’s ERA is up to 3.97 and the walks have really gotten out of whack with the rest of his career. Since the beginning of August, Manoah ranks 86th out of 91 qualified pitchers in walk rate (4.37 walks per nine innings). This is really coming at a time when the Blue Jays are trying to put their playoff pieces together. Can Manoah be completely trusted in the rotation after a dominant first half, but questionable last 30+ days? Time will tell, but for now, this is a pitcher to treat with caution moving forward.
