Machado About Buying

How’s everyone doing without baseball every day? I’m doing great! I walked into a Jersey Mike’s and told them a story about a Mike I knew from Jersey who owed me money, and told them I wouldn’t be paying for my sub. They can take it out of the money Mike owes me. The police, who were called, were not at all sympathetic about the lunchmeat that was owed to me! I want my cold cuts, I screamed! I then cackled for 45 minutes until the guy with the freshly-sliced roast beef hand-fed me slices in the back of the police cruiser to get my blood sugar back up. One player who’s got my blood boiling is Manny Machado. I’m not going to claim he’s exactly the player he was last year. HE’S BETTER?! No, Mr. Reversal, and thanks for the heart attack. His 1st half was worse than last year, but how much worse? He’s lost exit velocity, barrels and line drives. He seems to be selling out for power. Guys can have a bad half; it doesn’t mean he will stay that bad. As my top 100 in the 2nd half rankings show, I still believe. He’s a 3rd baseman who should hit .250 with power. At worst. That can be found elsewhere — say Curtis Mead — but what is also here is a track record of being a top 30 hitter for over a decade. I’d buy this year’s Manny with the chance for more. Now, excuse me while I return to this roast beef — slice it directly into my mouth! I like it juicy! Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

PSYCHE! This post was released a week early for Patreon members. It will be released all year early for Patreons, so if people are getting a jump on you, it’s because they paid the $10. Anyway, the Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell:

BUY

Francisco Alvarez – As might already be clear from this post, unlike other Buy/Sells, this is for trading, because there were hardly any games between last week’s and this week’s. Do I still think you should buy Kade Anderson and other guys from last Friday’s Buy? Yes. Any hoo! Fran-Al is a 25-homer, .250 hitter — essentially a top 10 catcher — he just needs to stay healthy. Will he stay healthy ever? Inside that question is the meaning of life and it can’t be understood by us mere mortals.

Jonathan Aranda – What you don’t see (but I will now spell out) is how many guys I look at before highlighting someone. I looked at all 1st basemen for Buys and really wanted that Buy to be Josh Naylor or Michael Busch, but their underlying stats just couldn’t get me there. (A smaller bonus 1B buy is TJ Rumfield.) So, instead, I’m left with a guy like Aranda, who is absolutely hitting ball hard, but has a much lower ceiling because he’s stolen zero bags in over 300 games. 25/.280 does have value, it’s just less readily obvious for fantasy. He’s basically a young Yandy Diaz. Call him Yandy Measured-In-Minutes-Instead-Of-Diaz. (That’s some prime Chris Berman garbage.)

Brandon Lowe – The only thing I could come up with for a reason to stay away from Lowe is his penchant for getting injured, and, if you can say penchant without sounding like Dr. Evil, you’re either younger or better than me; possibly both, I suppose. Lowe’s having a fantastic season, and everything checks out. This is a buy high in some ways, similar to Aranda, but the problem with buying low over a half of the season is: There’s a reason why you can buy low on a guy, because he sucks, and, if he sucks this far into the season, there’s likely a reason. So, a buy low discussion about buying Lowe high.

Dominic Canzone – Not sure if people understand just how good he hits the ball. Open your eyes to the wonders that are Canzone:

He’s been doing this his entire career. This is Canzone’s world. Want something? Get in line! This image is sorted by Barrels/PA%, but you can see the top six and their average exit velocities. Canzone is consistently hitting the ball harder than Mike Trout. Now look at the percentage of swings that produce Hard Hits. It’s Yordan, Wood then Canzone. You cannot fake this. At some point, people are going to catch up to what Canzone’s doing. Sad to say, me constantly talking about him is not going to help keep him a secret. If you want, take Razzball’s header and put a post under it saying why Canzone sucks. Us real ones though? We know.

Jo Adell – His stats are a little bit of a minefield. They’re not all good. He’s being beat by making too much contact, if you can believe it. (Not sure why you wouldn’t believe me– hey, what kind of crap is that?) Adell would do better at swinging at strikes and not garbage. Hey, wouldn’t all players? He’s not a huge Buy, but he looks like he’s a “recognition of pitches” problem away from being great like last year. It’s a Buy low. Those are okay, right? Just such an attitude on you! Rest of Season Player Rater has Adell as a top 20 outfielder, and I still like that call.

Matthew Boyd – There is a severe lack of pitchers who should be pitching better than they have been and are worth anything. Example: MacKenzie Gore is better than a 4.70+ ERA, but he’s more of a 4.20 ERA pitcher, so who cares? There’s a bunch of guys like that. Should Freddy Peralta be better? Sure, still kinda pee-poor though. Boyd, how’sever, looks like he could be a 3.30 ERA pitcher or better and his ERA says he’s been almost a run worse than that. I’d guess in a trade you could get Boyd as a throw-in or for not much of anything. Unless Flavor Flav’s in your league with his team name, Yeah, Boyd!!! You’re not getting Boyd off him.

Gavin Williams – Just gave you my Gavin Williams fantasy. Really tried to sneak him into the top 100 for the 2nd half. I even mention him in Hunter Greene’s blurb, who was the player I wanted to replace with Gavin. I went back and forth like this, “Gavin… Greene… Greene… Gavin… Greene… Gravin… Gane… Gaynor… Gloria…” Now you’re back. From outer space. And I find you here? With that sad look–Sorry, where was I? Right! Gavin! If I were doing the rankings on realistic value vs. upside, Gavin is better than Greene. Greene’s value is more what he could do, and how he can be a top five starter. Gavin is just pitching well, and I get the sense people may not realize it.

Kyle Finnegan – If I’m the Tigers, and, even if I think I have a legit shot of the playoffs, I’d trade Kenley before the deadline, but who replaces Kenley isn’t obvious. It could be Keider Montero, Drew Anderson, Finnegan or I guess someone else even. I don’t know. My gut says Finnegan because of previous closer experience, but I just ate corned beef and this might be turning Fannie-gas into Finnegan. (Legit dumbest thing I’ve ever written, you’re welcome.)

Garrett Whitlock – If I’m the Red Sox, I would trade Aroldis for literally anything. Offer me James Tibbs III? Absolutely! Offer me the rights to James Tibbs IV! I don’t care.

SELL

Jose Altuve – Can you get anything for Altuve? I’m not sure. He might be more of a throw-in. Everything has seemingly fallen apart for the Astros all at once. Wasn’t “Everything has seemingly fallen apart all at once” that terrible Best Picture movie with Jamie Lee Curtis? By the by, Jamie Lee Curtis has gone from amazing in Trading Places to one of the least welcomed presences in anything. Any hoo! Unlike a lot of the guys in this Sell column, I would move Altuve for just about anything. Rest of the Season Player Rater has Altuve as the 24th best outfielder, and, unlike Adell above, I do not like that call.

Zach Neto – Mentioned this the other day, but his strikeout rate went up year over year by so much that I was wondering if that was the biggest gain in K% by any player and I did a janky search that still yielded results of guys whose K% went up higher. (Torkelson, Ian Happ were two that jumped out. Bonus Sell! Ian Happ’s become a terrible hitter this year. He went from a very usable 25/10/.245 hitter to a 25/10/.215 hitter. Moving on!) So, although Neto didn’t become the worst hitter in baseball year over year for strikeouts, he still became a worse hitter. He’s still hitting homers, and might go 30/20. That has a lot of value. He’s also sold out for so much power (almost 50% FB rate, Hayzeus Neto) that he is prone to big slumps and has some serious flaws showing. I wouldn’t trade him for a roll in the hay with a sheep, but I would go to the Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and explore options.

Max Meyer – Going into the break, the Marlins said they were skipping his Sunday start to limit his innings. [looks around to see if anyone else heard that] “Umm, so I was thinking my Max Meyer for your Oneil Cruz? What do you think? Cruz won’t even be back for another two weeks, maybe.” That’s you pulling a fast one. In general, Meyer looks fine for a number three, but he doesn’t have the ace juice and he’s moving towards being babied. Nuzzle into the pitching coach’s bosom! I wouldn’t trade Meyer for breakfast at a restaurant where they give you sneakers with waffle soles and the floor is covered in syrup, but I would go to the Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and explore options.

Chase Burns – There’s a lot of pitchers who are currently out-performing their stats. They are easy to find. They are legion. Just about any pitcher under a 3 ERA. The thing with Chase Burns is it’s more about his overall appeal. I wrote a preseason sleeper post for him; everyone loves him. If you don’t love Burns, you are not paying attention or fell asleep reading Stephen King’s Firestarter. Because Burns is so loved that’s why I think he has Sell value, because no one in their right mind thinks he’s this good. He’s a 3.50+ ERA pitcher with a 2.54 ERA. He’s a 1.21 WHIP with a 1.11 WHIP. Oh, and he might hit a wall of too many innings by August. I wouldn’t sell Chase Burns for a ticket to see the Lenny Kravitz tribute band, The Real Lenny Kravitz Is Already A Tribute Band, but I would go to the Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and explore options.