After calling Alex Bregman overrated, I’m sticking with the trash can theme, as in, grab a trash can because you’re about to vomit:


Me in the locker room interviewing Kris Bryant, “Yo, Kris Bryant, are you the worst hitter who people think is great or is it me? And, honestly, I don’t think it’s me.” After being chased from the locker room, I look back and scream, “Hey, I wasn’t the one who compared you to Daniel Descalso!” Door slams on my face, then, after two beats, I pop my head back in, “At least it was 2018 Descalso, the year he was relatively good for him and hit 13 homers and .238!” Seriously, what in the holy eff is the deal with people liking Kris Bryant? I feel like to do justice to writing an overrated post for Kris Bryant, I need to first interview some people who like Kris Bryant at his current top 50 overall price tag. “Hello, I see you like Kris Bryant, can I ask you why?” Listening, then, “Because he’s handsome? Hmm…Wait, what’s that? Because he had a great year in 2016? Oh, okay.” Well, obviously, I’m not wasting my time interviewing anyone, but I imagine that’s about the summation of their defense for drafting Bryant. They’re not people who are looking at his recent numbers, or it’s some anecdotal nonsense about how he was great not that long ago. Hate to break it to you, but I think that’s ship’s sailed or you need to stop pretending you’re ‘shipped to him. So, what can we expect from Kris Bryant for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

His average exit velocity of 87.4 was about the same as Raimel Tapia and Yadier Molina. Yadios amigo! Much like Alex Bregman, Bryant has a launch angle that is like a super nerd whipping out his protractor to make a perfect 360-degree circle. I’m surprised Bryant’s 19.3 degree launch angle doesn’t cause him to scrap the ground during his swing, or doink the catcher on the head on his follow-through. Someone should put out a straight-to-home VHS tape series called, “When Launch Angles Kill,” and have Dwayne Murphy screaming on the tape cover with the simple caption, “NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!” To give you an idea of how bad Launch Angles can damage someone, Brandon Belt’s peripherals aren’t that far off on Launch Angle and exit velocity. Let that sink in real good like a lavender essential oil, Kris Bryant in San Fran would be Brandon Belt. *insert GIF of someone saying WTF* In Chicago, Bryant’s still at least got those glory winds, and the ability to see the fences, paradoxically since they’re covered in ivy. Any hoo! Back to the crizzap that is Kris Bryant. His Hard Contact% of 35.8% is 26th worst in the league with Jackie Bradley Jr. and Miguel Rojas surrounding him. The number of pitches Bryant hits in the zone is elite, but he might be losing a step already on his swing, because his swinging strike percentage was top 25, around that of Rougned Odor. He’s also far from an elite speed guy, and has stolen six bases in ten attempts across two seasons and 249 games. (I’d laugh now if I weren’t being deadly serious at how awful Bryant is.) So, Bryant’s hitting .284 in his career, but it’s with a .342 BABIP. A lot fewer line drives with more fly balls and his goofy launch angle will lead to weak contact and is not a recipe for a high BABIP. If his BABIP backslides to .300, he’s going to hit .265. Couple that with barely 27-homer power and no speed, and how exactly is he being drafted 150 picks before J.D. Davis or Christian Walker or Hunter Dozier, three guys I wrote up in sleeper posts. Draft any of them before Bryant. Or maybe even wait and draft 2018 Daniel Descalso.

 
  1. Harley Earl says:
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    Good stuff, Grey. As always, enlightening.

    Again, you have convinced me. And that’s why I come here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  2. galica says:
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    Grey!!!

    Another fab schmohawk report.

    a. I’d believe you 1000% if Bryant wasn’t so good looking and got his manager’s stamp of approval of batting leadoff. I guess he gets some boost in OPS leagues ’cause he does have a good OBP. Okay, I believe you 1000000%, that’s 10^6 or 1M% as they say in the biz.

    b. MLB quote of the day for June 21, 1962

    ‘Base stealing for me is another sport all by itself. It’s a game within a game. I’m the mouse and the cats are trying to trap me.’

    Maurice Morning Wills, whose 104 stolen bases in 1962 broke Ty Cobb’s record of 96 set in 1915 and the world order was never the same again. He made the stolen base an art form and was a three-sport star in high school (just like Grey!) – a strike out artist (amazingly just like Grey!).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. You in that RCL where they instituted the handsome category? I’m jealous

      B. 100% like me!

      • galica says:
        (link)

        Grey!!

        a. Signed up for 2 RCLs, #28 and #47. The former (draft March 15) has 2/12 managers but the latter (draft March 22) has 11/12 so there’s hope for the latter. The former? What do I say?

        ‘Please come and join this league (RCL#28) so you can kick my a$$ in fantasy baseball like I know you all want to after reading my stupid quotes?’

        It might work.

        b. Yes, just like you. I was referring to how many times you struck out with the girls in high school like most of us. It was a time to strike out (better in high school than in real life).

        c. Otherwise, what’s new? Still waiting to book our wedding anniversary (April 29) in that restaurant in Amsterdam (Vuurtoreneiland). Pray for me, it should be available to book for that date tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha, I need to get in that league!

          B. Damn, I didn’t expect that! Haha

          C. Headed to Florida right now for LABR draft…some expert thing…Ante, book your trip already, you don’t want to mess this up

          • galica says:
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            Grey!!!

            a. The trip is booked already. Only have this one restaurant reservation to make and I’m done. Then on March 29 I send her the invitation (1 month in advance) to join me for our 20th wedding anniversary and the honeymoon I promised her that we never went on. I’m also prepping the final touches on a playlist that I’ll figure out how best to use.

            b. Safe journey man. Hope the jacket you get at the airport hooters keeps you dry at least.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              A. Ah nice… very smooth, Ante!

              B. Ha, thanks!

    • swaggerjackers says:
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      I’m glad someone pointed out his OBP. He’s solid in that format with a career .385

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        That’s true, no quarrel on his OBP

  3. ozone ranger says:
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    The more I think (and read), the more I’m considering throwing Bryant out with my first throw in NL-Only auctions.

    I like throwing early those guys with more name value than actual value. People are like “Well if he is thrown this early with the elites, then he must be close to elite.” Or I want some to pay closer to elite value for a non-elite player. I bet someone will pay $30 for him. Or I hope. Then I can type “quality overpay”.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Good idea

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I like it

      • ozone ranger says:
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        Thank you, gentlemen. I think my alternate will be Charlie Blackmon. And if Jeremiah Johnson Blackmon is not thrown by my second throw, that one is set.

        Last year was Realmuto. All that “traded to Philadelphia’s bandbox” hype. Yet, because of some scarcity belief by having to start two C in an only league, people overpay.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem…Yeah, Realmuto was the #1 catcher, ended as #1 catcher and was still whatever

  4. whitt23 says:
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    Traded Bryant for Meadows the other day and I got a ton of crap for it. Traded a 6th round pick for Olson yesterday and got a ton of crap for it. What can you do?

    • batflix says:
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      Find a better league is my first thought

      • whitt23 says:
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        I’m here to like this comment!!! Ha

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Great moves

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nicely done!

  5. Hernan says:
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    Have a safe trip Man, bring a jacket, is in the 40s here( Tampa Area), lol, raining cats and dogs too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Crap, I’m already at the airport, looks like I’m buying a jacket at Hooters!

      • Florida Cracker says:
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        Is this event open to the public? I live in Clearwater, 10 minutes away and have never been to a live draft. What’s the hotel again? I could use some extra strategy being in the NFBC with Donkey, Cram, etc,etc.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d guess it’s open to the public, they usually are… it’s 7 PM on Friday… come out if you’re that close!

  6. Jason says:
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    Great article as always! I know you dont write it but when do you think the closer chart will come out? Thanks again!

    • Snacks Zillion says:
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      Thanks for the schmohawk pieces, they’re great! Just traded my Bryant (dynasty league) for Olson, felt like I stole something! When you pop off about one the utopic beer capital cities of America, it pretty much shows your just a D-bag!!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Nicely done!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s a question for Donkey or Rotowan

  7. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Giancarnoooooooo… On the plus side, the Yankees can get his contract off the books in around twenty years…

    • LOLmets says:
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      What a lemon and what a terrible job by cashman taking on his contract. I wouldn’t go near Stanton for fantasy for the rest of his career. Mike Tauchman will return more value this year.

      • LOLmets says:
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        Mike Tauchman is like a poor man’s Bobby Abreu. Grey loves my Yankees picks. Tauchman will be a tremendous value.

        • Cram It says:
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          And Tyler Wade will steal 30 bases.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        Yeah, he’s no healthy Stanton, but Tauchman isn’t bad. The thing that I like about him is that he runs a bit too.

      • Smitty says:
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        Ha! Yep have Bryant just below Goldy & won’t own either. Happy to get #1 pick in NFBC, waiting in between picks is gonna be the challenge…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s a test of patience

    • Tom says:
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      Well more than a few teams took Giancarlo over Bryant in early drafts, especially in NFBC, do you think they would swap that pick now if they could?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Don’t draft either, Tom

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      How’s that a positive for us? I knew I shouldn’t have went near him

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, been fooled about 5 times

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            He fooled me once this year, but I can’t get fooled again

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yup me too

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            I wonder if Rudy’s scorned, or if he’ll be going back in. We’ll find out soon enough.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              He drafted him in LABR already

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                I meant in our DC league. Draft starts on Sunday.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ah, yeah, I think he’s out now, but if the price is right watch out!

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
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                    The game of chicken’s afoot!

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    Don’t we count on him for around 500 AB’s any way? I don’t see whats changed until we know how long he’ll be out (in games that count)

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Starting to wonder if he’s getting 400 ABs

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      If he misses a month he’s probably a 450 guy.He needs the HGH really bad

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Or I need to work on my lower back rubs

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      I’ll do his feet…..or maybe he should go back to being Mike. Mike’s tougher than John Carlo

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      BTW, my dad called me yesterday out of the blue and insisted I watch Hunters to learn about our people — you’re officially my dad

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      Finally that adult sized Baby Bjorn purchase is gonna pay off

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      We’re gonna get some dirty looks when I’m vaping in a baby bjorn

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      when they see me vaping with you they’ll totally understand

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha

  8. Mario says:
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    Any idea if/when the homie, Hot Rod will publish his war room spreadsheet?

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      Haven’t seen him around at all this year. I’d buy a subscription and get access to Rudy’s. It’s pretty great.

    • NUX says:
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      Got some good news! It’s finished.

      I been talking with him, it’ll be out in a few hours I think. We owe HotRod some serious gratitude on his post this afternoon.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      3 hours from now

    • NUX says:
      (link)

      To Knoche’s point though, you should def use both.

      Rudy’s war room is no joke. I love having one with Grey’s projections too, but I wouldn’t win at least 3 of the leagues I play in without Rudy’s. Reason being, I find it to be especially key during my upcoming slow drafts.

      The SON and HT are vital to my fantasy baseball victories the last decade or so. If you aren’t using Rudy’s tools, you are behind the eight ball. I imagine this doesn’t need to be said for a lot of readers, but get on it for 2020 if you haven’t already!

      • Brad Ely says:
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        New to the site. Can you add some clarity about what exactly Rudy’s tools are? Is this part of the 24.99 season sub?

        Appreciate it!

        • NUX says:
          (link)

          First of all, welcome in. And secondly, I can’t possibly do any more justice explaining the Stream-O-Nator and Hitter Tron than the FAQ in the tools section does.

          But essentially, they are start or sit type tools that are very helpful when streaming both arms AND bats. No idea if that’s the $25 pricepoint you mentioned. I just pay whatever is asked for on the day the tools/subscription for the season drop. It’s well worth it when factoring in all the winnings I’ll be getting in October.

          End PSA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think today tbh

  9. Dave D says:
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    I totally concur on Bryant. I wouldn’t touch him until about pick 225, which means I’ll not be owning him in 2020, much like 2019, 2018…

    • batflix says:
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      not until 225?
      I absolutely call bs that you can come up with 224 more valuable players than Bryant

      that’s silly

      • Dave D says:
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        I’d rather draft Hunter Dozier, Scott Kingery, JD Davis over him. At leastDozier will steal some bags. Kingery too.

        Would you really draft him over Soler? Not me. If we’re talking Cubs I think Schwarber and Happ could rival or surpass his numbers at way lower ADP.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Agreed

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yeah more like 2025

  10. batflix says:
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    So, you are saying even with all of these awful statcast numbers he still went 100/30/80 .280?
    #59 Overall on the Razzball player rater.

    And everyone projects more of the same?

    But we *shouldn’t* draft him ~top 50??

    forgive me FML but, this sweatpants wearing prematurely balding dude is confused

    Because what I have come away with from this article, is that Bryant is a small tweak away from being elite.
    Right? Bring the LA down a tad, and that corrects the hard hit% and EV’s?

    maybe i’m just an optimist

    • The Harrow says:
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      i’d think that would be the case. at least it surely could be.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s a floor player, bore player, I can’t get down with him…too much trending in wrong direction…he could get back to good with tweaks but won’t be on my teams

  11. The Harrow says:
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    holy crap, i thought he was just doing badly for a while from the shoulder he needed to get fixed and didn’t get fixed for a while. so he’s ruined himself for a bit with the LA. had been an MVP type guy before the shoulder thing a few years ago. and had that whole “generational hitting talent” when he was a prospect and looked like it for a few years too in MLB. if the shoulder is ok this sounds like something he can actually fix at his age though, but buying in when he’s doing things against that isn’t a good idea obviously, till we see it.

    • The Harrow says:
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      should be right in his prime, 28.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, maybe he gets back there but won’t be on my teams, too much blech in his profile

      • The Harrow says:
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        yeah i get it, but i don’t play in AVG leagues, only OPS or OBP (usually with total bases) so he’s in theory not as bad floory in those.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  12. Bryan Toth says:
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    Keeper question:
    14-team 5×5 H2H Keep 10:
    Current thought is:
    Trout
    Jose Ramirez
    Eddie Rosario
    Moncada
    Conforto
    Eduardo Escobar
    Wander Franco
    Hader
    Glasnow
    Bauer

    Should I swap any for: Cprrea, Aquino, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Brad Hand, Eduardo Rodriguez?

    Keep forever, no round limitations. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah

  13. LOLmets says:
    (link)

    Got to think this guy is working as hard as possible to not flop the next 2 years so he can get paid as a free agent. 27 years old in his prime with another year experience under his belt and playing with a chip on his shoulder from losing that case over his service time. Sure I can see why the peripherals could lead you to projecting him for his worst season ever (besides the injury year) but I kinda doubt it. .285 avg 32 homers 4 steals and all the counting stats for a guy who hits in a prime spot in a good lineup everyday to go with it feels about right. Things got stale there under Maddon I think. I know there’s not much weight you can put in that but Kris Bryant has the non statistical things going for him (age, playing for big contract, new coach)

    • Cram It says:
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      Playing for big contract is a myth, especially 2 years away.

      Looking under the hood at advanced stats carries way more weight than a new contract and new coach.

      • J-FOH says:
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        so 2021 will be the big year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Huge!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Meh, pretty anecdotal

  14. moses mashers says:
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    Thanks. Keep them coming, Grey. I am in the middle of my first draft; a warm-up small stakes draft. 12 team league and I had the 8th pick. So far have Story, Tatis, Alonso and Albies. Might be time for an SP.

    • Earl says:
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      I would concur with getting starting pitcher like maybe Corbin or Gioloto.

      Surprised u got Alonso in 3rd round (i am assuming he was your 3rd pick) as thought he usually went in 2nd round or very early 3rd round.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, draft an SP

      • moses mashers says:
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        Yea I was happy with Alonso there. His ADP on fantrax is 27. Got him at 32. I was able to get giolito with pick 5. Seeing Mondesi still on the board in round 5 makes me regret my double dip on ss to start. Probably too early to fill utility

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Alonso has been such a steal this year, I don’t get it… I own him in like 4 leagues

  15. ratedm4man says:
    (link)

    Great article, love your stuff, blah, blah, blah. Honestly I just have a question and would love the ‘Peet’s opinions and really fellow readers too.

    I’m in a full keeper H2H pts league. K are 2 pts and INN are 0.5 pts. Other than that scoring is pretty standard. Keeping in mind it is an absolute keeper league….i’m working on a trade. The headline is I give Thor and get Corbin. I would have to sweeten it with Eddie Rosario, but for me he isn’t needed. I have acuna, Calhoun, Eloy and Tsutsugo all fighting for LF playing time. Honestly opening up a roster spot for streaming is a huge bonus. So, give Thor and get Corbin is a no brained , right? I win this trade now and for the next 3-5 yrs, roughly?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I’d pass. Seems like a lot to give, Rosario isn’t just a sweetener. I’m also quite a bit higher on Thor than Grey is fwiw.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Meh, hold

      • ratedm4man says:
        (link)

        Thor and Eloy for Flaherty too much? I’m not sure I got the “pants grapes” (that cracks me up every time) for it. But it was offered.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, sounds about fair

          Hehe

  16. ratedm4man says:
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    Sorry. For the quick follow-up. But I’d like to thank Siri for all the wrong autocorrects included in my post. I’m sure you “ ‘Peets “ get that all the time.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, No problem

  17. DavidS says:
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    FWIW, I agree with this about Bryant…….so, Ramirez over Bregman?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I’d want JRam

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah

  18. Big Ticket says:
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    You might be right here Grey, but I’m not buying it. Despite 2nd lowest GP and PA of his career, he had 2nd highest HR and 2B. LD% has been stable (24% last year, 26% career), BB rate is still elite … yes, there are some concerns, but I think there’s a significant buying opportunity based on your ranks. No way I take him after Moustakas, Anderson, Blackmon, Stanton, Goldy, etc.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Fair enough

  19. Cram It says:
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    I love all the push back you’re getting. I really do think it’s because he’s handsome.

    Jason Heyward had a long leash too because of his body/athleticism/good first season. He has to better, right?!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      Maybe it’s not that much push back actually.

      I was just reading through the top 400 for 2014 comments and there was one angry dude that you ranked Mauer in the 200s. Huge argument. Entertaining stuff. Mauer literally had his worst year of his career that season. That dude probably changed his name to Wally Pipp.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        How Very Pipp of you.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Hahaha

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      Only reason I like Ohtani, beautiful eyes.

      • Cram It says:
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        Did you see how jacked he is now???

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          People love that, like great baseball players aren’t out of shape

          • Cram It says:
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            BSOHL is right up there with contract year as far as predictors of performance, unless those arms were made by PEDs.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, that’s a big one… I just drafted a NBSOHL in Sano

    • Tom says:
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      Not nearly as long a leash as Buxton has been given basically driven by prospect hype and one great September.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Yeah

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        I read an article on some fantasy site how this is the year he breaks out and wins Fantasy Championships! Where there is talent, there will always be believers.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          True

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Likability and charisma go a long way, I’m telling ya

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        I’m still going in on shares of Odor this year for his combination of potential and punching Bautista.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I already own Odor, it’s a sickness

          • Cram It says:
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            Yes! Let’s see who drops him first….

  20. Place Tevere says:
    (link)

    I’m in the middle of a dynasty startup roto slow draft. Should I take willie Calhoun or Franmil with my next pick? I love them both. It’s like Sophie’s choice all over again.

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      I took both of them at a recent draft near the turn in back to back rounds. They’re close. I like Calhoun just a little better myself.

      • Place Tevere says:
        (link)

        Thanks. I was thinking Calhoun has a little more upside, especially with such a low K rate.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I’d go Franmil but agree, Sophie’s choice.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agree with DT

      • Jolt In Flow says:
        (link)

        Keep in mind that Texas opens its new park on March 23rd. From what they’re saying, it will be neutral to hitters/pitchers, either with or without the retracted roof.

        Calhoun might take a slight step back because of it.

        Reyes now has some experience against AL pitching and playing in AL parks after being traded to the AL midway through last season. That’s got to give him a slight step forward, I would think.

        Just my two cents. Or three. Good luck in the decision.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Agreed

          • Place Tevere says:
            (link)

            Thanks all. I went with Franny partially because it’s more likely that Willie comes back to me. The guy who picked after me told me I sniped him so that was the right call.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Franny!

    • Smitty says:
      (link)

      Franny!

  21. Fish says:
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    What are the chances Wander Franco ends up being called up this year by the notoriously stingy Rays? If so, would it just be a Sept. call up?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      Yes, I think September at best.

      • Fish says:
        (link)

        I’m trying to figure out if I try to deal an excess keeper for FAAB for this either this year or for next year with the main goal of nabbing Franco.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agree with DT

  22. Mackelrane says:
    (link)

    Im having a tough time deciding on 4 keepers for my auction league. I know I am keeping Yelich and I know your philosphy is bats. I was leaning Yelich, Bryant, Rendon and Snell but wanted to see what you thought.

    Pick 4:

    Yelich $12 – Yes Please
    Bryant $15
    Rendon $28
    Rizzo $24
    Degrom $26
    Strasburg $19
    Castillo, L $10
    Giolito $10
    Snell $11

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yelich, Rendon, deGrom, Snell

  23. Jon Gray’s Broken Toe says:
    (link)

    Kris Bryant had ankle, knee and head injuries repeatedly last year… could the low exit velocities be related to being a walking wounded last season?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Meh, maybe

  24. Bob says:
    (link)

    Do you have any guidance or articles on TB leagues? Sleeper players?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Check out rankings page

  25. Adam says:
    (link)

    Keeper question…
    Keep 4 (fovever), H2H, 10 team yahoo, 5×5 (OPS and QS vs. Avg. and W)

    Too much risk if I keep these 4 bats? Trout, Tatis, Alonso and Mondesi?

    Options-
    Trout
    Tatis Jr
    Rendon
    Alonso
    Cole
    Mondesi
    Springer
    Y Alvarez
    Stanton
    Machado
    Meadows

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d toss back Mondesi for Cole

  26. Cant Read says:
    (link)

    Signed up for NFBC 50s not knowing there was no free agents. League filled before I realized and cant get out. Any overall strategies or Razzball articles for this league set up? New to the format.

    • FrankGrimes says:
      (link)

      Bend over.
      Grab ankles.
      Repeat.

    • Bamabterry says:
      (link)

      Make sure you get enough Sp to hit the innings limit. I also like to have at least 3 at each position , and usually 4 to feel safe, that will get ab’s for when guys get hurt. Also, dont quit at all star game even if you are way down. People quit around then and it makes the people who dont have substantial second half of the season comebacks in counting stats. Nfbc50 is like a typical league other than that. If you do a bigger one the game completely changes because you are chasing a top prize instead of just beating 11 other guys.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Go stronger SPs, closers are not as important, I also wrote up articles last year recapping my NFBC draft

      • Bamabterry says:
        (link)

        Curious as to why you think closers are not as important in NFBC50 format?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Because they’re so fickle, grab two, and pray… don’t try to load up in setup men…Maybe one or two setup men… I should say MRs are less valuable, not necessarily closers…

          • bterry says:
            (link)

            Makes sense. That is kind of what I do, but with 3. Then I try to grab 3/4 MR darts at the end once I have the roster built the way I like it. I feel Multi positional eligibility is played up in this format too. If you have enough bats and SP it is kind of a luxery to throw darts rounds 45-50.

  27. The Player To Be Named Later says:
    (link)

    I disagree.

  28. MattyIce says:
    (link)

    Grey! What’s up man, looking for some help in a 10 team OBP forever keeper league. Need to keep 6 from this bunch:

    Muncy
    Albies
    Rendon
    Bogaerts
    Gleyber
    Corbin
    Paddack
    Sale
    Bauer

    Leaning towards Albies/Rendon/Bogaerts/Gleyber/Corbin/Paddack, but the Sox homer in me really wants to keep Sale in the event last year was an aberration (everything I’ve read from you says it was not). Am I crazy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You’re not crazy, that looks about right

  29. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Sale starting year on DL due to Flu and pneumonia and delay and ramping up activities. I know he was grooving last year and end of season, but with this and potential injury bug still hanging over head I just can’t see how anyone is drafting him anywhere near where he’s been going.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I thought it was crazy people were drafting him… he was terrible last year

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        Was he? I’ve never owned him, and never would, so I don’t look under the hood with him, but besides his ERA, his normal stats were where they’ve always been. Slightly higher HR/9 and BB/9 but nothing to justify a mid-4 ERA.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          His velocity had issues all year, and he can’t stay on the field…I wouldn’t touch him

  30. DB says:
    (link)

    Not sure this is an accurate narrative. Kris Bryant had a .299 AVG, .962 OPS and 20 HR over his first 96 games last season before he tweaked his right knee sliding into a base in July. The Cubs grossly mismanged a ton of injuries the past two years and Bryant’s 2019 2nd half was certainly a casualty of that. He never had the appropriate rest for the knee to heal. Hard to drive the ball from a crouched batting stance when your back knee is unstable.

    By all accounts Bryant’s 2019 non-structural knee injury is well behind him. He’s absolutely a borderline top-50 pick, especially in leagues that factor in OBP or OPS.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Fair enough, guess we’ll see

  31. TJ says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, glad to be back for the 2020 Season. Joining a Razz league for the first time, let’s see how I do!

    Got a question for another one of my keeper leagues. Draft is coming up. I’ll list my team and the available players to draft. Let me know what you think the best plan of attack for the draft is. H2H, 12×12 scoring. OBP, QS, yada yada

    C – empty
    1B – empty
    2B – empty
    3B – Rendon
    SS – Baez
    OF – Betts
    OF – Judge
    OF – Robles
    util –
    util –

    SP – Darvish
    SP – Woodruff
    SP – Wheeler
    SP – Gallen
    2 RP – empty

    Here’s the list in order from your top 100 that will be available to me in the 1st & 2nd rounds:
    Springer, S. Marte, Villar, Abreu, Machado, Suarez, Morton, M. Chapman, Moustakas, Bichette, Cruz, Blackmon, Nola, Sale, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, Yates, A. Chapman

    Do you think I would be better off going say Abreu / SP, Villar / SP, or bolster going 2 SP (not your favorite move of course).

    I’m leaning Abreu but afraid he will be gone by the 8th pick.

    Sorry for the long post, but this is serious business and at least you haven’t hit the time of the year where you get 600 questions (599 of them being catcher questions)! Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes, Abreu 100%… otherwise, a 2B… then BAO

  32. TC says:
    (link)

    In an OBP keeper, is giving JRam and getting Matt Chapman and Chris Paddack back good value, not enough? It’s also QS and no wins. He also has Strasburg but not sure if that’s too much to ask for in return.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not enough

      • TC says:
        (link)

        So not even Chapman and Strasburg then. Ok thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  33. swaggerjackers says:
    (link)

    Bryant feels like a younger 3B version of Jose Abreu. And you like Jose Abreu (raniked 44 overall).

    Typically low 30’s homers. Good AVG and OBP.

    Count me toward the skeptics that feel like Bryant and Abreu should be closer in the rankings.

    @Grey: This will be a fun post to reflect on in the offseason if you’re right and he bombs. I also like Hunter Dozier and can see your point with the gap in ADP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, agreed, Dozier just screams value

  34. fallex says:
    (link)

    Would you take Springer for Bryant in a keeper league (8keepers count as first 8 picks)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I would

  35. Whitey Herzog says:
    (link)

    Good day Grey and co.!

    First off, looking for some thoughts and prayers for this 12-team, keeper, points league. We get to keep 6 and I’m in a world of hurt already. I used to have a strong pitching staff but it has almost completely evaporated the last few years. Here’s the core group that I’d consider for keepers:

    Bats:
    Bogaerts
    JD Martinez
    Olson
    Realmuto
    Hoskins
    Verdugo
    Haniger

    Arms:
    Clevinger
    Carrasco
    Severino (RIP 2020)
    Colome?
    Musgrove?!

    I had originally planned for Bogaerts, JDM, Olson, Realmuto, Clevinger, and Severino to be the 6. I am prepared to chuck Severino back for this year obviously, but do I even dabble with Carrasco? Should I keep Hoskins?

    Of note, I do have the first overall pick (technically round 7 due to keepers) to hopefully find a gamechanger.

    How do I salvage this season? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ouch, not great, Whitey… Toss back Severino for Carrasco

  36. Bg says:
    (link)

    I think it all started a few years back when you made the conscious effort to not strike out as much. He never was the same after that.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, could be

  37. Drew says:
    (link)

    Howdy Grey!

    Thoughts on moving my Mondesi for his Bichette and W. Smith (LAD) in my 16-team OPS keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds fair

  38. Steve says:
    (link)

    My man, have a question for you.

    About to start slow draft and need to decide keeper. Keep-9, 14T 7×7

    My keepers:
    Stanton (1)
    Harper (2)
    Arenado (3)
    Trea (5)
    Jo-Ram (10)
    Tatis (11)
    Hiura (21)
    Soroka (25)

    I have one spot left, who does it go to?

    Bauer (4)
    Beni (10)
    Will Smith (lad, 21)
    Glasnow (4)
    McNeil (21)
    Thor (4)
    Hader (16)

    Thinking Thor, Glas or Hader but appreciate your input

    Gracias compadre.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hader, Glasnow — get rid of Giancarlo or Soroka, your call

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        Thanks! Think Soroka is inj or just a scare?

        I’ve had Stanton for many years but he’s been made of glass these past couple of seasons. Could’ve really used his production down the stretch last year.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Meh, Soroka’s fine

          Yeah, I hear ya

  39. hondo says:
    (link)

    Chris Davis is twitching.4-5,2 HRs and 3 walks in 8 PA’s.I hope he can get his heart back this year.I feel sorry for the guy but if anyone has to pay that contract I’m glad it’s Angelos.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Who’d he homer off, Tim Tebow?

      • hondo says:
        (link)

        I dunno,just saw the box score.I couldn’t get motivated enough to watch a spring training game with the O’s and Pirates.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

  40. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey!

    OBP OPS keeper league (H2H 12 teams) . . . which side do you like

    I get Tatis ($11)

    I give Robert ($5) and Hiura ($5)

    If I do this trade, my final keeper (replacing Hiura) would be Soler for $5.

    No doubt Tatis side, right?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, not necessarily…You keeping Robert and Hiura or nah?

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        I’d be keeping Robert and Hiura. Here’s the two versions of how my keepers would look (yes trade v no trade):

        YES TRADE: Soto ($8), Bellinger ($11), Story ($16), Tatis ($11), Soler ($5)

        NO TRADE: Soto ($8), Bellinger ($11), Story ($16), Robert ($5), Hiura ($5)

        I should also mention that it’s possible he wants Robert + a guy I’m not keeping in the vein of Soler or Nola ($11) etc. We have QS on the pitching side and he just lost Sev, so he might want to keep a SP.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Tatis/Soler looks better

  41. Licketty Splits says:
    (link)

    A best ball 12 team points league with QS in addition to W’s & BB in addition to Hits. This will a 40 round draft with no trades or waivers. My 2nd attempt at this format. This is my team so far:
    P Jacob deGrom – NYM (7) (took your advice & got an ace in this format)
    SS Fernando Tatis Jr. – SD (18)
    3B Rafael Devers – BOS (31)
    1B Matt Olson – OAK (42) (definite reach but I wanted a quality 1B)
    OF Starling Marte – ARI (55) (bit boring but OF was getting thin quick)
    1B Anthony Rizzo – CHC (66) (best hitter available & 3 utility spots)
    P Sonny Gray – CIN (79)
    OF Ramon Laureano – OAK (90)
    P Dinelson Lamet – SD (103)
    P Kirby Yates – SD (114)
    OF Luis Robert (R) – CHW (127) ( I feel like the next 3 picks fell to me a bit & I loaded up to complete my OF)
    OF Franmil Reyes – CLE (138)
    OF Willie Calhoun – TEX (151)
    P Marcus Stroman – NYM (162) (not the most exciting staff BUT I think these guys will give me more IP & QSs then some of the young flashy guys)
    P Taylor Rogers – MIN (175) (closers seem to be devalued & he was auto-picked BUT 6 points per save & great ratios & K’s should count for something)

    My plan is to get decent backups at all the INF positions since there is no multi-positional eligibility. While filling out my SP and looking for value picks along the way. I know I need some speed but it is points so I guess points are points regardless of Cats
    How does it look so far?? Please be brutally honest so I can make adjustments if needed.
    Thanks for another great write up …happy I’ve managed to avoid all your schmohawks so far.

    • Licketty Splits says:
      (link)

      Actually coming up on my next pick …considering Wong for my 2B slot or Dozier for a Utility bat. Also Ohtani & Andujar are available. Best SP are C Smith, Canning, Urquidy, Lucchesi or Keuchel.
      Some great closers available but it seems I can wait that out & grab value much later.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        None of those sound safe…maybe a top closer if he’s good

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Team looks great so far, but you need some depth, you’re sexy upside heavy…get some safety like Lance Lynn and Schwarber types

      • Licketty Splits says:
        (link)

        Thanks pretty happy so far myself. The issue is right now the only thing that seems to scream value is a closer & I already have Yates & Rogers. Jansen, Diaz & Giles are sitting there …& one MIGHT be there 14 pics from now.
        Dozier was just taken & the best hitters left are: Segura, Hampson, Eaton, Walker, Cain, Wong, Odor, Riley, Mazara & & several Cs at that ADP range .
        Best SPs are: C Smith, Urquidy, Canning (MRI tomorrow), Alcantra, May, Keller, Kopech, Hamels (shoulder), Chinrinos Matz, Cease, Archer, Cueto, & Yarborough.

        It seems to me that Saves are really undervalued by alot.
        Saves= 6 points where as SP get W= 3 & QS= 3 ALL get 1.5 fr every IP but lose 1.5 for every ER & lose 0.5 for every hit/walk. So yes IP give you points but if they aren’t quality you lose them right back. It is best ball so you only get your best Starts but the same goes for RPs getting saves & K’s if you had a handful.
        Not sure what I am missing dealing with this format

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          100% Yates — Closers get points

          • Licketty Splits says:
            (link)

            I already have both Yates & Rogers.
            Best left are Jansen, Diaz & Jansen.
            I hate to collect too many closers BUT the SPs to pick from are pretty mediocre now in the $3-4 range in your ratings.

            Sorry if this was confusing …end of a long day I am sure
            Appreciate all you do for our fake teams

            • Licketty Splits says:
              (link)

              Sorry that was Jansen, Diaz & Giles

  42. Joshua Benton says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey –

    I took last year off from FBB, came back this year, and I feel like the coma meme. “I can’t wait to see how high Noah Syndegaard is ranked!”

    I’ve been freebasing Razz content for 24 hours straight, and this site is the only thing keeping me in the game. Thanks for the A+++++ content.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s awesome, glad to have you back!

  43. Daren Page says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Random question. If you were in a standard 12 team roto where closers are overvalued and even mid-tier guys are going around 120ish would it be a decent strategy to punt saves and take the hitter and SP values available? Then grab a couple garbage closers late and try to fix ratios with eliete set-up guys.

    Thanks!

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
      (link)

      I’d never look to punt a category in the draft, but I do like the idea of skipping the mid and top tiers and going to town on the bargain closers + next-in-line guys. If everyone is grabbing all of their closers early on, they shouldn’t be looking for melancon/jimenez/davis/kela/givens types and then you can grab the top handcuffs.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Mid-tier at 120 sounds about right but depends who the guys are…when in doubt punt top closers

  44. Jr says:
    (link)

    I’m a rebuilding team in a 10 team h2h dynasty league. Stats for hitters includes hr, obp, walks, total bases, slg and net steals. Pitchers it’s QS instead of wins, k/9 and bb/9, and then the other normal pitching cats.

    Would you trade Luke Weaver for Severino and Luis Patino? My best sp is Edrod right now and there’s nothing on waivers.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You’re punting for two years? Meh, what else can you do?

      • Jr says:
        (link)

        I’ve got some guys you don’t like anymore (Goldy, altuve, Blackmon) but not getting any bites on them. I can hold and see what I can get later in the season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I guess, depends on your options

  45. Jeff Graup says:
    (link)

    what do u do if a draft goes so heavy in sp that u have a stacked team in best ball

    my team

    1st Oslon
    2nd Huira
    3rd Moncoda/moustakas (13th rd)
    SS Story/lindor/mondesi (6th rd)
    Cruz
    Robert

    SP
    Gallen
    Lamet
    Heaney
    Odorizzi
    Mccullers

    Do u keep taking hitters who r falling

    We are at pick 182

    I can grab a 2nd
    1st santana gurriel walker
    2nd wong mcmahon
    3rd turner edman dozier
    Add to my of

    Kingery tucker jd davis adell senzel Aquino joc cain peralta nomar….

    Or grab 2 SP im on the turn

    Urquidy, luchessi, keller chirinos yarborough archer kope archer lopez

    Lothario do u keep taking hitters like kingery and adell in my of 3rd and 4th slot add to my 1st 2nd or even 3rd ….

    This is a question not abt a whatever league but in general what would the lothario do its so skewed SP hitters are falling from the sky

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Taking batters without a pitching staff isn’t a recipe for success… you need depth on pitching too…I don’t mind your pitching tho, doesn’t look that weak

      • Jeff Graup says:
        (link)

        u see whats out there do i hit OF or grab a SP like a keller urquidy or a chirinos/yarby combo at the turn

        • Jeff Graup says:
          (link)

          or a houser keller combo meal

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          What’s the OF you’re looking at?

          • Jeff says:
            (link)

            Kinger adell peralta jd davis aquino

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Kingery

  46. Jeff says:
    (link)

    Im loaded @ hitting in bestball
    Olsen
    Huira
    story lindor mondesi
    Moncado mouse

    Robert
    Cruz lots of depth @ OF n every hitting positiin

    • JEFFREY says:
      (link)

      Pick 2 im on the turn

      Kingery n a SP? Keller urqiuidy houser

  47. baby seal says:
    (link)

    Yo Grey,

    I’m back baby! Had my nice trip out east in Greenport.

    Unfortunately, I got sick on Sunday night without realizing it, and was sick as a dog Monday morning on my bday. Nonetheless! I rallied, took advantage of their continental bfast spread. Then proceeded to have about 4 vodka drinks with lunch to celebrate, and about 3 hours later… felt like absolute death again hahaha. So, I’ve been in recovery the last few days.

    First day back at work today has been a bit rough. So, bringing this post back to shiz you actually care about — saw Donkey Teeth got me in a Razzball league yesterday. Thought I was all set to play w/ the “pros” — was in the tweet for league 3 and everythang!

    But I was real foggy yesterday, especially in the morning. Apparently, he sent an email yesterday about joining the league, which I didn’t see (bc I was sick!)… until he DM’d me on Twitter today to make sure I joined… said I was the only moron who didn’t sign up yet. Only had like 30min to respond to the DM and missed the signup! :-(

    DT had to give my spot away so NFBC could do their thing. Totally reasonable. But sad. Tell him to give ppl more than 24 hours to respond next year! He could’ve sent this out ages ago! Think he said I can join a qualifier league or something like that, or at the worst, will make sure I’m in it next year. Was looking forward to it! UGH, so frustrating!

    Now that’s out of the way, here are some quick hitters.

    I’m in DT’s 15-team DC, so I will have my revenge for real $!!! Will be my first 4-hr clock ever, so that’ll be interesting… got the 5 slot and DT’s at 11. Cram It is at 12 being sneaky! Didn’t see him before!

    NL-Only Post: Main thing for me here, why you keep bidding on guys you don’t even want?!? Seems crazy! That’s my A+ advice for your industry leagues that you *supposedly* care about. Just remember, “baby seal’s great wisdom is to not bid on guys I don’t want.” Also, the Colin Moran chatter on the pod was pretty hilarious. Monte: my fav deep sleeper in MIA. Have him in my DCs.

    When you pod with those guys, tell them to take the stick out of their asses. It’s like they are afraid to razz you!

    Charlie Blackmon: ez schmo. Next.

    Sevy: Sad, but inevitable once that news came out.
    Monty (Gumby, as they call ‘em): Nice streamer potential at most. But I’m like 90% sure he’ll get drafted in my uber shallow 12-team home league lol.
    Lucroy: Got him in the 44th round in my last DC. My catching situation there is weird. Molina, Sisco, Wieters, Lucroy, Knizner.

    Kris Bryant: Easiest schmo ever!

    We can’t end this drivel of a post on that!

    “Edwin Diaz yielded two runs and three hits in an inning Wednesday in a loss to the Astros.
    Analysis: We’d say Diaz is in midseason form, but he didn’t give up any homers.”

    *a loud cackle slowly fades into the night*

    That’s all Folks!

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      You got some competition in Razz DC. Donkey + Walter McMichael as experts. Me, Cram and Hernan down at the end, and I’ve been in a league with fungazi he’s no slouch either. Gonna be a solid battle.

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        What up TGK!?

        I missed you before too! Real stiff competition in the back there. Looking forward to it!

        Thanks for the heads up, man. Should be a lot of fun this year.

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      2 things:

      1) The blabbering was on the RazzSlam in case that wasn’t obvious

      2) Easiest schmo post is actually going to be Merrifield. I got $5 that’s coming manana, manana

  48. Brett says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Need help with my keepers. 12 team 6×6 with OPS and holds the extra categories. Also we use quality starts instead of wins. I have won the league the past 2 years thanks in large to your help so I have a ton of options that I’m struggling choosing from. We keep 5. Some options can be kept for 1 year others for 2, however I am not locked into keeping any player after this year.

    Acuna $22 (for 2 years)
    Bellinger$ 32 (for 2 years)
    Baez $13 (1 year only)
    Tatis $9 (1 year only)
    Pete Alonso $1 (for 2 years)
    Snell $3 (1 year only
    Bieber $9 (for 2 years)
    Paddack $2 (for 2 years)
    Flaherty $18 (for 2 years)

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      Acuna, Belly, Tatis, Alonso, Flaherty for me.

  49. asdfasdf says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey,

    In an NL-only points league, which guy would you keep?

    Paddack (lose 10th round)
    Buehler (lose 5th round)
    Flaherty (lose 5th round)

    Thanks!

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      Flaherty for me, but him and Buehler are coin flip.

Comments are closed.