After calling Alex Bregman overrated, I’m sticking with the trash can theme, as in, grab a trash can because you’re about to vomit:


Me in the locker room interviewing Kris Bryant, “Yo, Kris Bryant, are you the worst hitter who people think is great or is it me? And, honestly, I don’t think it’s me.” After being chased from the locker room, I look back and scream, “Hey, I wasn’t the one who compared you to Daniel Descalso!” Door slams on my face, then, after two beats, I pop my head back in, “At least it was 2018 Descalso, the year he was relatively good for him and hit 13 homers and .238!” Seriously, what in the holy eff is the deal with people liking Kris Bryant? I feel like to do justice to writing an overrated post for Kris Bryant, I need to first interview some people who like Kris Bryant at his current top 50 overall price tag. “Hello, I see you like Kris Bryant, can I ask you why?” Listening, then, “Because he’s handsome? Hmm…Wait, what’s that? Because he had a great year in 2016? Oh, okay.” Well, obviously, I’m not wasting my time interviewing anyone, but I imagine that’s about the summation of their defense for drafting Bryant. They’re not people who are looking at his recent numbers, or it’s some anecdotal nonsense about how he was great not that long ago. Hate to break it to you, but I think that’s ship’s sailed or you need to stop pretending you’re ‘shipped to him. So, what can we expect from Kris Bryant for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

His average exit velocity of 87.4 was about the same as Raimel Tapia and Yadier Molina. Yadios amigo! Much like Alex Bregman, Bryant has a launch angle that is like a super nerd whipping out his protractor to make a perfect 360-degree circle. I’m surprised Bryant’s 19.3 degree launch angle doesn’t cause him to scrap the ground during his swing, or doink the catcher on the head on his follow-through. Someone should put out a straight-to-home VHS tape series called, “When Launch Angles Kill,” and have Dwayne Murphy screaming on the tape cover with the simple caption, “NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!” To give you an idea of how bad Launch Angles can damage someone, Brandon Belt’s peripherals aren’t that far off on Launch Angle and exit velocity. Let that sink in real good like a lavender essential oil, Kris Bryant in San Fran would be Brandon Belt. *insert GIF of someone saying WTF* In Chicago, Bryant’s still at least got those glory winds, and the ability to see the fences, paradoxically since they’re covered in ivy. Any hoo! Back to the crizzap that is Kris Bryant. His Hard Contact% of 35.8% is 26th worst in the league with Jackie Bradley Jr. and Miguel Rojas surrounding him. The number of pitches Bryant hits in the zone is elite, but he might be losing a step already on his swing, because his swinging strike percentage was top 25, around that of Rougned Odor. He’s also far from an elite speed guy, and has stolen six bases in ten attempts across two seasons and 249 games. (I’d laugh now if I weren’t being deadly serious at how awful Bryant is.) So, Bryant’s hitting .284 in his career, but it’s with a .342 BABIP. A lot fewer line drives with more fly balls and his goofy launch angle will lead to weak contact and is not a recipe for a high BABIP. If his BABIP backslides to .300, he’s going to hit .265. Couple that with barely 27-homer power and no speed, and how exactly is he being drafted 150 picks before J.D. Davis or Christian Walker or Hunter Dozier, three guys I wrote up in sleeper posts. Draft any of them before Bryant. Or maybe even wait and draft 2018 Daniel Descalso.

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asdfasdf
asdfasdf
2 years ago

Hi Grey,

In an NL-only points league, which guy would you keep?

Paddack (lose 10th round)
Buehler (lose 5th round)
Flaherty (lose 5th round)

Thanks!

The Great Knoche
Reply to  asdfasdf
2 years ago

Flaherty for me, but him and Buehler are coin flip.

Brett
Brett
2 years ago

Grey,

Need help with my keepers. 12 team 6×6 with OPS and holds the extra categories. Also we use quality starts instead of wins. I have won the league the past 2 years thanks in large to your help so I have a ton of options that I’m struggling choosing from. We keep 5. Some options can be kept for 1 year others for 2, however I am not locked into keeping any player after this year.

Acuna $22 (for 2 years)
Bellinger$ 32 (for 2 years)
Baez $13 (1 year only)
Tatis $9 (1 year only)
Pete Alonso $1 (for 2 years)
Snell $3 (1 year only
Bieber $9 (for 2 years)
Paddack $2 (for 2 years)
Flaherty $18 (for 2 years)

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Brett
2 years ago

Acuna, Belly, Tatis, Alonso, Flaherty for me.

baby seal
baby seal
2 years ago

Yo Grey,

I’m back baby! Had my nice trip out east in Greenport.

Unfortunately, I got sick on Sunday night without realizing it, and was sick as a dog Monday morning on my bday. Nonetheless! I rallied, took advantage of their continental bfast spread. Then proceeded to have about 4 vodka drinks with lunch to celebrate, and about 3 hours later… felt like absolute death again hahaha. So, I’ve been in recovery the last few days.

First day back at work today has been a bit rough. So, bringing this post back to shiz you actually care about — saw Donkey Teeth got me in a Razzball league yesterday. Thought I was all set to play w/ the “pros” — was in the tweet for league 3 and everythang!

But I was real foggy yesterday, especially in the morning. Apparently, he sent an email yesterday about joining the league, which I didn’t see (bc I was sick!)… until he DM’d me on Twitter today to make sure I joined… said I was the only moron who didn’t sign up yet. Only had like 30min to respond to the DM and missed the signup! :-(

DT had to give my spot away so NFBC could do their thing. Totally reasonable. But sad. Tell him to give ppl more than 24 hours to respond next year! He could’ve sent this out ages ago! Think he said I can join a qualifier league or something like that, or at the worst, will make sure I’m in it next year. Was looking forward to it! UGH, so frustrating!

Now that’s out of the way, here are some quick hitters.

I’m in DT’s 15-team DC, so I will have my revenge for real $!!! Will be my first 4-hr clock ever, so that’ll be interesting… got the 5 slot and DT’s at 11. Cram It is at 12 being sneaky! Didn’t see him before!

NL-Only Post: Main thing for me here, why you keep bidding on guys you don’t even want?!? Seems crazy! That’s my A+ advice for your industry leagues that you *supposedly* care about. Just remember, “baby seal’s great wisdom is to not bid on guys I don’t want.” Also, the Colin Moran chatter on the pod was pretty hilarious. Monte: my fav deep sleeper in MIA. Have him in my DCs.

When you pod with those guys, tell them to take the stick out of their asses. It’s like they are afraid to razz you!

Charlie Blackmon: ez schmo. Next.

Sevy: Sad, but inevitable once that news came out.
Monty (Gumby, as they call ‘em): Nice streamer potential at most. But I’m like 90% sure he’ll get drafted in my uber shallow 12-team home league lol.
Lucroy: Got him in the 44th round in my last DC. My catching situation there is weird. Molina, Sisco, Wieters, Lucroy, Knizner.

Kris Bryant: Easiest schmo ever!

We can’t end this drivel of a post on that!

“Edwin Diaz yielded two runs and three hits in an inning Wednesday in a loss to the Astros.
Analysis: We’d say Diaz is in midseason form, but he didn’t give up any homers.”

*a loud cackle slowly fades into the night*

That’s all Folks!

The Great Knoche
Reply to  baby seal
2 years ago

You got some competition in Razz DC. Donkey + Walter McMichael as experts. Me, Cram and Hernan down at the end, and I’ve been in a league with fungazi he’s no slouch either. Gonna be a solid battle.

baby seal
baby seal
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

What up TGK!?

I missed you before too! Real stiff competition in the back there. Looking forward to it!

Thanks for the heads up, man. Should be a lot of fun this year.

baby seal
baby seal
Reply to  baby seal
2 years ago

2 things:

1) The blabbering was on the RazzSlam in case that wasn’t obvious

2) Easiest schmo post is actually going to be Merrifield. I got $5 that’s coming manana, manana

Jeff
Jeff
2 years ago

Im loaded @ hitting in bestball
Olsen
Huira
story lindor mondesi
Moncado mouse

Robert
Cruz lots of depth @ OF n every hitting positiin

JEFFREY
JEFFREY
Reply to  Jeff
2 years ago

Pick 2 im on the turn

Kingery n a SP? Keller urqiuidy houser

Jeff Graup
Jeff Graup
2 years ago

what do u do if a draft goes so heavy in sp that u have a stacked team in best ball

my team

1st Oslon
2nd Huira
3rd Moncoda/moustakas (13th rd)
SS Story/lindor/mondesi (6th rd)
Cruz
Robert

SP
Gallen
Lamet
Heaney
Odorizzi
Mccullers

Do u keep taking hitters who r falling

We are at pick 182

I can grab a 2nd
1st santana gurriel walker
2nd wong mcmahon
3rd turner edman dozier
Add to my of

Kingery tucker jd davis adell senzel Aquino joc cain peralta nomar….

Or grab 2 SP im on the turn

Urquidy, luchessi, keller chirinos yarborough archer kope archer lopez

Lothario do u keep taking hitters like kingery and adell in my of 3rd and 4th slot add to my 1st 2nd or even 3rd ….

This is a question not abt a whatever league but in general what would the lothario do its so skewed SP hitters are falling from the sky

Jeff Graup
Jeff Graup
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

u see whats out there do i hit OF or grab a SP like a keller urquidy or a chirinos/yarby combo at the turn

Jeff Graup
Jeff Graup
Reply to  Jeff Graup
2 years ago

or a houser keller combo meal

Jeff
Jeff
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Kinger adell peralta jd davis aquino

Jr
Jr
2 years ago

I’m a rebuilding team in a 10 team h2h dynasty league. Stats for hitters includes hr, obp, walks, total bases, slg and net steals. Pitchers it’s QS instead of wins, k/9 and bb/9, and then the other normal pitching cats.

Would you trade Luke Weaver for Severino and Luis Patino? My best sp is Edrod right now and there’s nothing on waivers.

Thanks!

Jr
Jr
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I’ve got some guys you don’t like anymore (Goldy, altuve, Blackmon) but not getting any bites on them. I can hold and see what I can get later in the season.

Daren Page
Daren Page
2 years ago

Hey Grey,

Random question. If you were in a standard 12 team roto where closers are overvalued and even mid-tier guys are going around 120ish would it be a decent strategy to punt saves and take the hitter and SP values available? Then grab a couple garbage closers late and try to fix ratios with eliete set-up guys.

Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Daren Page
2 years ago

I’d never look to punt a category in the draft, but I do like the idea of skipping the mid and top tiers and going to town on the bargain closers + next-in-line guys. If everyone is grabbing all of their closers early on, they shouldn’t be looking for melancon/jimenez/davis/kela/givens types and then you can grab the top handcuffs.

Joshua Benton
Joshua Benton
2 years ago

Hey Grey –

I took last year off from FBB, came back this year, and I feel like the coma meme. “I can’t wait to see how high Noah Syndegaard is ranked!”

I’ve been freebasing Razz content for 24 hours straight, and this site is the only thing keeping me in the game. Thanks for the A+++++ content.

Licketty Splits
Licketty Splits
2 years ago

A best ball 12 team points league with QS in addition to W’s & BB in addition to Hits. This will a 40 round draft with no trades or waivers. My 2nd attempt at this format. This is my team so far:
P Jacob deGrom – NYM (7) (took your advice & got an ace in this format)
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. – SD (18)
3B Rafael Devers – BOS (31)
1B Matt Olson – OAK (42) (definite reach but I wanted a quality 1B)
OF Starling Marte – ARI (55) (bit boring but OF was getting thin quick)
1B Anthony Rizzo – CHC (66) (best hitter available & 3 utility spots)
P Sonny Gray – CIN (79)
OF Ramon Laureano – OAK (90)
P Dinelson Lamet – SD (103)
P Kirby Yates – SD (114)
OF Luis Robert (R) – CHW (127) ( I feel like the next 3 picks fell to me a bit & I loaded up to complete my OF)
OF Franmil Reyes – CLE (138)
OF Willie Calhoun – TEX (151)
P Marcus Stroman – NYM (162) (not the most exciting staff BUT I think these guys will give me more IP & QSs then some of the young flashy guys)
P Taylor Rogers – MIN (175) (closers seem to be devalued & he was auto-picked BUT 6 points per save & great ratios & K’s should count for something)

My plan is to get decent backups at all the INF positions since there is no multi-positional eligibility. While filling out my SP and looking for value picks along the way. I know I need some speed but it is points so I guess points are points regardless of Cats
How does it look so far?? Please be brutally honest so I can make adjustments if needed.
Thanks for another great write up …happy I’ve managed to avoid all your schmohawks so far.

Licketty Splits
Licketty Splits
Reply to  Licketty Splits
2 years ago

Actually coming up on my next pick …considering Wong for my 2B slot or Dozier for a Utility bat. Also Ohtani & Andujar are available. Best SP are C Smith, Canning, Urquidy, Lucchesi or Keuchel.
Some great closers available but it seems I can wait that out & grab value much later.

Licketty Splits
Licketty Splits
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks pretty happy so far myself. The issue is right now the only thing that seems to scream value is a closer & I already have Yates & Rogers. Jansen, Diaz & Giles are sitting there …& one MIGHT be there 14 pics from now.
Dozier was just taken & the best hitters left are: Segura, Hampson, Eaton, Walker, Cain, Wong, Odor, Riley, Mazara & & several Cs at that ADP range .
Best SPs are: C Smith, Urquidy, Canning (MRI tomorrow), Alcantra, May, Keller, Kopech, Hamels (shoulder), Chinrinos Matz, Cease, Archer, Cueto, & Yarborough.

It seems to me that Saves are really undervalued by alot.
Saves= 6 points where as SP get W= 3 & QS= 3 ALL get 1.5 fr every IP but lose 1.5 for every ER & lose 0.5 for every hit/walk. So yes IP give you points but if they aren’t quality you lose them right back. It is best ball so you only get your best Starts but the same goes for RPs getting saves & K’s if you had a handful.
Not sure what I am missing dealing with this format

Licketty Splits
Licketty Splits
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I already have both Yates & Rogers.
Best left are Jansen, Diaz & Jansen.
I hate to collect too many closers BUT the SPs to pick from are pretty mediocre now in the $3-4 range in your ratings.

Sorry if this was confusing …end of a long day I am sure
Appreciate all you do for our fake teams

Licketty Splits
Licketty Splits
Reply to  Licketty Splits
2 years ago

Sorry that was Jansen, Diaz & Giles

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
2 years ago

Hey Grey!

OBP OPS keeper league (H2H 12 teams) . . . which side do you like

I get Tatis ($11)

I give Robert ($5) and Hiura ($5)

If I do this trade, my final keeper (replacing Hiura) would be Soler for $5.

No doubt Tatis side, right?

Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I’d be keeping Robert and Hiura. Here’s the two versions of how my keepers would look (yes trade v no trade):

YES TRADE: Soto ($8), Bellinger ($11), Story ($16), Tatis ($11), Soler ($5)

NO TRADE: Soto ($8), Bellinger ($11), Story ($16), Robert ($5), Hiura ($5)

I should also mention that it’s possible he wants Robert + a guy I’m not keeping in the vein of Soler or Nola ($11) etc. We have QS on the pitching side and he just lost Sev, so he might want to keep a SP.

hondo
hondo
2 years ago

Chris Davis is twitching.4-5,2 HRs and 3 walks in 8 PA’s.I hope he can get his heart back this year.I feel sorry for the guy but if anyone has to pay that contract I’m glad it’s Angelos.

hondo
hondo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I dunno,just saw the box score.I couldn’t get motivated enough to watch a spring training game with the O’s and Pirates.

Steve
Steve
2 years ago

My man, have a question for you.

About to start slow draft and need to decide keeper. Keep-9, 14T 7×7

My keepers:
Stanton (1)
Harper (2)
Arenado (3)
Trea (5)
Jo-Ram (10)
Tatis (11)
Hiura (21)
Soroka (25)

I have one spot left, who does it go to?

Bauer (4)
Beni (10)
Will Smith (lad, 21)
Glasnow (4)
McNeil (21)
Thor (4)
Hader (16)

Thinking Thor, Glas or Hader but appreciate your input

Gracias compadre.

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks! Think Soroka is inj or just a scare?

I’ve had Stanton for many years but he’s been made of glass these past couple of seasons. Could’ve really used his production down the stretch last year.

Drew
Drew
2 years ago

Howdy Grey!

Thoughts on moving my Mondesi for his Bichette and W. Smith (LAD) in my 16-team OPS keeper?

Bg
Bg
2 years ago

I think it all started a few years back when you made the conscious effort to not strike out as much. He never was the same after that.

Whitey Herzog
Whitey Herzog
2 years ago

Good day Grey and co.!

First off, looking for some thoughts and prayers for this 12-team, keeper, points league. We get to keep 6 and I’m in a world of hurt already. I used to have a strong pitching staff but it has almost completely evaporated the last few years. Here’s the core group that I’d consider for keepers:

Bats:
Bogaerts
JD Martinez
Olson
Realmuto
Hoskins
Verdugo
Haniger

Arms:
Clevinger
Carrasco
Severino (RIP 2020)
Colome?
Musgrove?!

I had originally planned for Bogaerts, JDM, Olson, Realmuto, Clevinger, and Severino to be the 6. I am prepared to chuck Severino back for this year obviously, but do I even dabble with Carrasco? Should I keep Hoskins?

Of note, I do have the first overall pick (technically round 7 due to keepers) to hopefully find a gamechanger.

How do I salvage this season? Thanks!

fallex
fallex
2 years ago

Would you take Springer for Bryant in a keeper league (8keepers count as first 8 picks)?

swaggerjackers
swaggerjackers
2 years ago

Bryant feels like a younger 3B version of Jose Abreu. And you like Jose Abreu (raniked 44 overall).

Typically low 30’s homers. Good AVG and OBP.

Count me toward the skeptics that feel like Bryant and Abreu should be closer in the rankings.

@Grey: This will be a fun post to reflect on in the offseason if you’re right and he bombs. I also like Hunter Dozier and can see your point with the gap in ADP.

TC
TC
2 years ago

In an OBP keeper, is giving JRam and getting Matt Chapman and Chris Paddack back good value, not enough? It’s also QS and no wins. He also has Strasburg but not sure if that’s too much to ask for in return.

TC
TC
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

So not even Chapman and Strasburg then. Ok thanks

TJ
TJ
2 years ago

Hey Grey, glad to be back for the 2020 Season. Joining a Razz league for the first time, let’s see how I do!

Got a question for another one of my keeper leagues. Draft is coming up. I’ll list my team and the available players to draft. Let me know what you think the best plan of attack for the draft is. H2H, 12×12 scoring. OBP, QS, yada yada

C – empty
1B – empty
2B – empty
3B – Rendon
SS – Baez
OF – Betts
OF – Judge
OF – Robles
util –
util –

SP – Darvish
SP – Woodruff
SP – Wheeler
SP – Gallen
2 RP – empty

Here’s the list in order from your top 100 that will be available to me in the 1st & 2nd rounds:
Springer, S. Marte, Villar, Abreu, Machado, Suarez, Morton, M. Chapman, Moustakas, Bichette, Cruz, Blackmon, Nola, Sale, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, Yates, A. Chapman

Do you think I would be better off going say Abreu / SP, Villar / SP, or bolster going 2 SP (not your favorite move of course).

I’m leaning Abreu but afraid he will be gone by the 8th pick.

Sorry for the long post, but this is serious business and at least you haven’t hit the time of the year where you get 600 questions (599 of them being catcher questions)! Thanks Grey!

DB
DB
2 years ago

Not sure this is an accurate narrative. Kris Bryant had a .299 AVG, .962 OPS and 20 HR over his first 96 games last season before he tweaked his right knee sliding into a base in July. The Cubs grossly mismanged a ton of injuries the past two years and Bryant’s 2019 2nd half was certainly a casualty of that. He never had the appropriate rest for the knee to heal. Hard to drive the ball from a crouched batting stance when your back knee is unstable.

By all accounts Bryant’s 2019 non-structural knee injury is well behind him. He’s absolutely a borderline top-50 pick, especially in leagues that factor in OBP or OPS.

The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Sale starting year on DL due to Flu and pneumonia and delay and ramping up activities. I know he was grooving last year and end of season, but with this and potential injury bug still hanging over head I just can’t see how anyone is drafting him anywhere near where he’s been going.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Was he? I’ve never owned him, and never would, so I don’t look under the hood with him, but besides his ERA, his normal stats were where they’ve always been. Slightly higher HR/9 and BB/9 but nothing to justify a mid-4 ERA.

MattyIce
MattyIce
2 years ago

Grey! What’s up man, looking for some help in a 10 team OBP forever keeper league. Need to keep 6 from this bunch:

Muncy
Albies
Rendon
Bogaerts
Gleyber
Corbin
Paddack
Sale
Bauer

Leaning towards Albies/Rendon/Bogaerts/Gleyber/Corbin/Paddack, but the Sox homer in me really wants to keep Sale in the event last year was an aberration (everything I’ve read from you says it was not). Am I crazy?

The Player To Be Named Later
The Player To Be Named Later
2 years ago

I disagree.

Cant Read
Cant Read
2 years ago

Signed up for NFBC 50s not knowing there was no free agents. League filled before I realized and cant get out. Any overall strategies or Razzball articles for this league set up? New to the format.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Cant Read
2 years ago

Bend over.
Grab ankles.
Repeat.

Bamabterry
Bamabterry
Reply to  Cant Read
2 years ago

Make sure you get enough Sp to hit the innings limit. I also like to have at least 3 at each position , and usually 4 to feel safe, that will get ab’s for when guys get hurt. Also, dont quit at all star game even if you are way down. People quit around then and it makes the people who dont have substantial second half of the season comebacks in counting stats. Nfbc50 is like a typical league other than that. If you do a bigger one the game completely changes because you are chasing a top prize instead of just beating 11 other guys.

Bamabterry
Bamabterry
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Curious as to why you think closers are not as important in NFBC50 format?

bterry
bterry
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Makes sense. That is kind of what I do, but with 3. Then I try to grab 3/4 MR darts at the end once I have the roster built the way I like it. I feel Multi positional eligibility is played up in this format too. If you have enough bats and SP it is kind of a luxery to throw darts rounds 45-50.

Adam
Adam
2 years ago

Keeper question…
Keep 4 (fovever), H2H, 10 team yahoo, 5×5 (OPS and QS vs. Avg. and W)

Too much risk if I keep these 4 bats? Trout, Tatis, Alonso and Mondesi?

Options-
Trout
Tatis Jr
Rendon
Alonso
Cole
Mondesi
Springer
Y Alvarez
Stanton
Machado
Meadows

Bob
Bob
2 years ago

Do you have any guidance or articles on TB leagues? Sleeper players?

Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
Jon Gray’s Broken Toe
2 years ago

Kris Bryant had ankle, knee and head injuries repeatedly last year… could the low exit velocities be related to being a walking wounded last season?

Mackelrane
Mackelrane
2 years ago

Im having a tough time deciding on 4 keepers for my auction league. I know I am keeping Yelich and I know your philosphy is bats. I was leaning Yelich, Bryant, Rendon and Snell but wanted to see what you thought.

Pick 4:

Yelich $12 – Yes Please
Bryant $15
Rendon $28
Rizzo $24
Degrom $26
Strasburg $19
Castillo, L $10
Giolito $10
Snell $11

Fish
Fish
2 years ago

What are the chances Wander Franco ends up being called up this year by the notoriously stingy Rays? If so, would it just be a Sept. call up?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Fish
2 years ago

Yes, I think September at best.

Fish
Fish
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

I’m trying to figure out if I try to deal an excess keeper for FAAB for this either this year or for next year with the main goal of nabbing Franco.

Place Tevere
Place Tevere
2 years ago

I’m in the middle of a dynasty startup roto slow draft. Should I take willie Calhoun or Franmil with my next pick? I love them both. It’s like Sophie’s choice all over again.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Place Tevere
2 years ago

I took both of them at a recent draft near the turn in back to back rounds. They’re close. I like Calhoun just a little better myself.

Place Tevere
Place Tevere
Reply to  The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Thanks. I was thinking Calhoun has a little more upside, especially with such a low K rate.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Place Tevere
2 years ago

I’d go Franmil but agree, Sophie’s choice.

Jolt In Flow
Jolt In Flow
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Keep in mind that Texas opens its new park on March 23rd. From what they’re saying, it will be neutral to hitters/pitchers, either with or without the retracted roof.

Calhoun might take a slight step back because of it.

Reyes now has some experience against AL pitching and playing in AL parks after being traded to the AL midway through last season. That’s got to give him a slight step forward, I would think.

Just my two cents. Or three. Good luck in the decision.

Place Tevere
Place Tevere
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks all. I went with Franny partially because it’s more likely that Willie comes back to me. The guy who picked after me told me I sniped him so that was the right call.

Smitty
Reply to  Place Tevere
2 years ago

Franny!

Cram It
Cram It
2 years ago

I love all the push back you’re getting. I really do think it’s because he’s handsome.

Jason Heyward had a long leash too because of his body/athleticism/good first season. He has to better, right?!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

Maybe it’s not that much push back actually.

I was just reading through the top 400 for 2014 comments and there was one angry dude that you ranked Mauer in the 200s. Huge argument. Entertaining stuff. Mauer literally had his worst year of his career that season. That dude probably changed his name to Wally Pipp.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

How Very Pipp of you.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

Only reason I like Ohtani, beautiful eyes.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

Did you see how jacked he is now???

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

BSOHL is right up there with contract year as far as predictors of performance, unless those arms were made by PEDs.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

Not nearly as long a leash as Buxton has been given basically driven by prospect hype and one great September.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Tom
2 years ago

I read an article on some fantasy site how this is the year he breaks out and wins Fantasy Championships! Where there is talent, there will always be believers.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I’m still going in on shares of Odor this year for his combination of potential and punching Bautista.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yes! Let’s see who drops him first….

Big Ticket
Big Ticket
2 years ago

You might be right here Grey, but I’m not buying it. Despite 2nd lowest GP and PA of his career, he had 2nd highest HR and 2B. LD% has been stable (24% last year, 26% career), BB rate is still elite … yes, there are some concerns, but I think there’s a significant buying opportunity based on your ranks. No way I take him after Moustakas, Anderson, Blackmon, Stanton, Goldy, etc.

DavidS
DavidS
2 years ago

FWIW, I agree with this about Bryant…….so, Ramirez over Bregman?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  DavidS
2 years ago

I’d want JRam

ratedm4man
ratedm4man
2 years ago

Sorry. For the quick follow-up. But I’d like to thank Siri for all the wrong autocorrects included in my post. I’m sure you “ ‘Peets “ get that all the time.

ratedm4man
ratedm4man
2 years ago

Great article, love your stuff, blah, blah, blah. Honestly I just have a question and would love the ‘Peet’s opinions and really fellow readers too.

I’m in a full keeper H2H pts league. K are 2 pts and INN are 0.5 pts. Other than that scoring is pretty standard. Keeping in mind it is an absolute keeper league….i’m working on a trade. The headline is I give Thor and get Corbin. I would have to sweeten it with Eddie Rosario, but for me he isn’t needed. I have acuna, Calhoun, Eloy and Tsutsugo all fighting for LF playing time. Honestly opening up a roster spot for streaming is a huge bonus. So, give Thor and get Corbin is a no brained , right? I win this trade now and for the next 3-5 yrs, roughly?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  ratedm4man
2 years ago

I’d pass. Seems like a lot to give, Rosario isn’t just a sweetener. I’m also quite a bit higher on Thor than Grey is fwiw.

ratedm4man
ratedm4man
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thor and Eloy for Flaherty too much? I’m not sure I got the “pants grapes” (that cracks me up every time) for it. But it was offered.

moses mashers
moses mashers
2 years ago

Thanks. Keep them coming, Grey. I am in the middle of my first draft; a warm-up small stakes draft. 12 team league and I had the 8th pick. So far have Story, Tatis, Alonso and Albies. Might be time for an SP.

Earl
Earl
Reply to  moses mashers
2 years ago

I would concur with getting starting pitcher like maybe Corbin or Gioloto.

Surprised u got Alonso in 3rd round (i am assuming he was your 3rd pick) as thought he usually went in 2nd round or very early 3rd round.

moses mashers
moses mashers
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yea I was happy with Alonso there. His ADP on fantrax is 27. Got him at 32. I was able to get giolito with pick 5. Seeing Mondesi still on the board in round 5 makes me regret my double dip on ss to start. Probably too early to fill utility

LOLmets
LOLmets
2 years ago

Got to think this guy is working as hard as possible to not flop the next 2 years so he can get paid as a free agent. 27 years old in his prime with another year experience under his belt and playing with a chip on his shoulder from losing that case over his service time. Sure I can see why the peripherals could lead you to projecting him for his worst season ever (besides the injury year) but I kinda doubt it. .285 avg 32 homers 4 steals and all the counting stats for a guy who hits in a prime spot in a good lineup everyday to go with it feels about right. Things got stale there under Maddon I think. I know there’s not much weight you can put in that but Kris Bryant has the non statistical things going for him (age, playing for big contract, new coach)

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Playing for big contract is a myth, especially 2 years away.

Looking under the hood at advanced stats carries way more weight than a new contract and new coach.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Cram It
2 years ago

so 2021 will be the big year?

Bryan Toth
Bryan Toth
2 years ago

Keeper question:
14-team 5×5 H2H Keep 10:
Current thought is:
Trout
Jose Ramirez
Eddie Rosario
Moncada
Conforto
Eduardo Escobar
Wander Franco
Hader
Glasnow
Bauer

Should I swap any for: Cprrea, Aquino, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Brad Hand, Eduardo Rodriguez?

Keep forever, no round limitations. Thanks!

The Harrow
The Harrow
2 years ago

holy crap, i thought he was just doing badly for a while from the shoulder he needed to get fixed and didn’t get fixed for a while. so he’s ruined himself for a bit with the LA. had been an MVP type guy before the shoulder thing a few years ago. and had that whole “generational hitting talent” when he was a prospect and looked like it for a few years too in MLB. if the shoulder is ok this sounds like something he can actually fix at his age though, but buying in when he’s doing things against that isn’t a good idea obviously, till we see it.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  The Harrow
2 years ago

should be right in his prime, 28.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

yeah i get it, but i don’t play in AVG leagues, only OPS or OBP (usually with total bases) so he’s in theory not as bad floory in those.

batflix
batflix
2 years ago

So, you are saying even with all of these awful statcast numbers he still went 100/30/80 .280?
#59 Overall on the Razzball player rater.

And everyone projects more of the same?

But we *shouldn’t* draft him ~top 50??

forgive me FML but, this sweatpants wearing prematurely balding dude is confused

Because what I have come away with from this article, is that Bryant is a small tweak away from being elite.
Right? Bring the LA down a tad, and that corrects the hard hit% and EV’s?

maybe i’m just an optimist

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  batflix
2 years ago

i’d think that would be the case. at least it surely could be.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

I totally concur on Bryant. I wouldn’t touch him until about pick 225, which means I’ll not be owning him in 2020, much like 2019, 2018…

batflix
batflix
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

not until 225?
I absolutely call bs that you can come up with 224 more valuable players than Bryant

that’s silly

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  batflix
2 years ago

I’d rather draft Hunter Dozier, Scott Kingery, JD Davis over him. At leastDozier will steal some bags. Kingery too.

Would you really draft him over Soler? Not me. If we’re talking Cubs I think Schwarber and Happ could rival or surpass his numbers at way lower ADP.

Mario
Mario
2 years ago

Any idea if/when the homie, Hot Rod will publish his war room spreadsheet?

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Mario
2 years ago

Haven’t seen him around at all this year. I’d buy a subscription and get access to Rudy’s. It’s pretty great.

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Mario
2 years ago

Got some good news! It’s finished.

I been talking with him, it’ll be out in a few hours I think. We owe HotRod some serious gratitude on his post this afternoon.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Mario
2 years ago

3 hours from now

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Mario
2 years ago

To Knoche’s point though, you should def use both.

Rudy’s war room is no joke. I love having one with Grey’s projections too, but I wouldn’t win at least 3 of the leagues I play in without Rudy’s. Reason being, I find it to be especially key during my upcoming slow drafts.

The SON and HT are vital to my fantasy baseball victories the last decade or so. If you aren’t using Rudy’s tools, you are behind the eight ball. I imagine this doesn’t need to be said for a lot of readers, but get on it for 2020 if you haven’t already!

Brad Ely
Brad Ely
Reply to  NUX
2 years ago

New to the site. Can you add some clarity about what exactly Rudy’s tools are? Is this part of the 24.99 season sub?

Appreciate it!

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Brad Ely
2 years ago

First of all, welcome in. And secondly, I can’t possibly do any more justice explaining the Stream-O-Nator and Hitter Tron than the FAQ in the tools section does.

But essentially, they are start or sit type tools that are very helpful when streaming both arms AND bats. No idea if that’s the $25 pricepoint you mentioned. I just pay whatever is asked for on the day the tools/subscription for the season drop. It’s well worth it when factoring in all the winnings I’ll be getting in October.

End PSA

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
2 years ago

Giancarnoooooooo… On the plus side, the Yankees can get his contract off the books in around twenty years…

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Big Magoo
2 years ago

What a lemon and what a terrible job by cashman taking on his contract. I wouldn’t go near Stanton for fantasy for the rest of his career. Mike Tauchman will return more value this year.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Mike Tauchman is like a poor man’s Bobby Abreu. Grey loves my Yankees picks. Tauchman will be a tremendous value.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

And Tyler Wade will steal 30 bases.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Yeah, he’s no healthy Stanton, but Tauchman isn’t bad. The thing that I like about him is that he runs a bit too.

Smitty
Reply to  LOLmets
2 years ago

Ha! Yep have Bryant just below Goldy & won’t own either. Happy to get #1 pick in NFBC, waiting in between picks is gonna be the challenge…

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Big Magoo
2 years ago

Well more than a few teams took Giancarlo over Bryant in early drafts, especially in NFBC, do you think they would swap that pick now if they could?

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago
Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

He fooled me once this year, but I can’t get fooled again

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I wonder if Rudy’s scorned, or if he’ll be going back in. We’ll find out soon enough.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I meant in our DC league. Draft starts on Sunday.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

The game of chicken’s afoot!

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Don’t we count on him for around 500 AB’s any way? I don’t see whats changed until we know how long he’ll be out (in games that count)

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
2 years ago

If he misses a month he’s probably a 450 guy.He needs the HGH really bad

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
2 years ago

I’ll do his feet…..or maybe he should go back to being Mike. Mike’s tougher than John Carlo

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
2 years ago

Finally that adult sized Baby Bjorn purchase is gonna pay off

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  J-FOH
2 years ago

when they see me vaping with you they’ll totally understand

Jason
Jason
2 years ago

Great article as always! I know you dont write it but when do you think the closer chart will come out? Thanks again!

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
Reply to  Jason
2 years ago

Thanks for the schmohawk pieces, they’re great! Just traded my Bryant (dynasty league) for Olson, felt like I stole something! When you pop off about one the utopic beer capital cities of America, it pretty much shows your just a D-bag!!

Hernan
Hernan
2 years ago

Have a safe trip Man, bring a jacket, is in the 40s here( Tampa Area), lol, raining cats and dogs too

Florida Cracker
Florida Cracker
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Is this event open to the public? I live in Clearwater, 10 minutes away and have never been to a live draft. What’s the hotel again? I could use some extra strategy being in the NFBC with Donkey, Cram, etc,etc.

whitt23
whitt23
2 years ago

Traded Bryant for Meadows the other day and I got a ton of crap for it. Traded a 6th round pick for Olson yesterday and got a ton of crap for it. What can you do?

batflix
batflix
Reply to  whitt23
2 years ago

Find a better league is my first thought

whitt23
whitt23
Reply to  batflix
2 years ago

I’m here to like this comment!!! Ha

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  whitt23
2 years ago

Great moves

ozone ranger
ozone ranger
2 years ago

The more I think (and read), the more I’m considering throwing Bryant out with my first throw in NL-Only auctions.

I like throwing early those guys with more name value than actual value. People are like “Well if he is thrown this early with the elites, then he must be close to elite.” Or I want some to pay closer to elite value for a non-elite player. I bet someone will pay $30 for him. Or I hope. Then I can type “quality overpay”.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  ozone ranger
2 years ago

Good idea

ozone ranger
ozone ranger
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thank you, gentlemen. I think my alternate will be Charlie Blackmon. And if Jeremiah Johnson Blackmon is not thrown by my second throw, that one is set.

Last year was Realmuto. All that “traded to Philadelphia’s bandbox” hype. Yet, because of some scarcity belief by having to start two C in an only league, people overpay.

galica
galica
2 years ago

Grey!!!

Another fab schmohawk report.

a. I’d believe you 1000% if Bryant wasn’t so good looking and got his manager’s stamp of approval of batting leadoff. I guess he gets some boost in OPS leagues ’cause he does have a good OBP. Okay, I believe you 1000000%, that’s 10^6 or 1M% as they say in the biz.

b. MLB quote of the day for June 21, 1962

‘Base stealing for me is another sport all by itself. It’s a game within a game. I’m the mouse and the cats are trying to trap me.’

Maurice Morning Wills, whose 104 stolen bases in 1962 broke Ty Cobb’s record of 96 set in 1915 and the world order was never the same again. He made the stolen base an art form and was a three-sport star in high school (just like Grey!) – a strike out artist (amazingly just like Grey!).