Thanks to the World Baseball Classic, Major League Baseball is even closer than I thought, as games themselves start on February 20th. I don’t feel as insane about drafting now! By the time you read this, I will have done my first non-slow event, a “Draft Champions Auction”. It’s a 15 team auction until you fill your 23 man “starting” roster, then a 27 round DC slow draft withno FAAB.
But enough about me. Let’s continue on with our journey through ADP risers and fallers. Last week, I looked at the first 5 rounds of NFBC 15 team drafts. Today, I will continue on with rounds 6-10, which corresponds to players going on average from Pick 76 to Pick 150. I am comparing Average Draft Positions from Draft Champions completed by the end of 2025 to the last 14 drafts. Some of those last 14 drafts may still be in progress, as they are slow drafts. These are all draft and hold leagues with no FAAB.
Risers
Emilio Pagan 149.73-93.1
Abner Uribe 169.13-115.7
Ryan Walker 215.19-147.8
Pete Fairbanks 127.11-91.2
Daniel Palencia 150.27-108.8
Jeff Hoffman 120.51-92.8
Dennis Santana 158.59-134
Kenley Jansen 125.83-107.8
You may notice a theme here! Closers remain on the rise. Ryan Walker is the last guy in this pack, and his ADP is now about 20th off the board for closers. He represents pretty much the lowest drafted guy who we (the community as a whole) think will safely at least start the season with the closer job. Seranthony Dominguez signed to close with the White Sox just on Friday, and he will likely settle in at the back of this pack, so that makes 21. Beyond that, there’s pretty much just spec guys. So there’s an obvious supply and demand dynamic here. 30 MLB teams divided by 15 Fantasy teams equals 2 closers per team (I never said there would be no math). Once closers start going off the board, they often keep going off the board since the shelves start to empty as quickly as those at my local Shop Rite ahead of this weekend’s storm. Yes, some teams punt saves, but it’s a less common strategy in Draft and Holds without FAAB. And it’s not a real winning strategy either in contests with Overall prizes. So yada yada yada, each draft has a different dynamic, but once they start to go, they all go.
Of course, this dynamic existed all offseason, so why the lift over time? Well, in some cases, they were free agents who got secure, seemingly closer gigs (Pagan, Fairbanks, Jansen). In other cases, they were at risk of their team signing someone else, but that never happened (Walker, Palencia, Hoffman, and Santana). And finally, there’s Abner Uribe. Over the course of the winter, the market has become convinced that he will close for the Brewers over Trevor Megill. He’s an interesting case as he has better skills than this whole group, as he rocked a 1.67 ERA with a 30.2% K% and 13% SwStr%. He’ll pop about 50 picks or so if he definitely has the job.
Salvador Perez 105.91-94.2
Maikel Garcia 89.19-79.5
I bunch these two Royals even though they could not be more different. Father Time will catch Salvy someday, but it’s not here yet. He popped 30 homers in 2025, with 100 RBI’s and a 14.7% Barrel%. He’s never been a good OBP guy, but that does not matter enormously to us as long as the Royals keep playing him at 1B or DH when he’s not catching. He’s also slow as molasses with 3rd percentile sprint speed.
Maikel Garcia is a super interesting real life (and fantasy) player as he’s a 3B with 63rd percentile sprint speed that steals bags (23 last year, 37 in 2024) and hits the ball hard (79th percentile EV). He gets it in the air relatively infrequently, though his 9.7 LA last year was an increase from his 6.4 LA in 2024. He did pop a career high 16 homers last year.
So why are they both lifting? It might be thanks to the Royals moving in the fences. It could ding Garcia a shade in Avg as he hit .286 last year, but there’s also a chance it turns him into a 20-30 guy batting leadoff in a pretty good lineup. Salvy, it probably just means more homers. He hit .236 last year, so you’re just hoping he doesn’t hurt your Avg much already.
Ceddanne Rafaela 141.36-127.2
The Red Sox CF-2B is a terrific real life player as he’s an elite fielder all over the top of the defensive spectrum. And he’s still just 25 with an interesting power-speed profile. He’s going to basically play every day as long as he’s healthy. But he’s just not a great actual hitter, as he had a .304 wOBA last year, and he’s projected in that range again. Plus, he will bat near the end of the Red Sox order. Yeah its a good lineup, but that will obviously put a cap on his counting stats. He had 16 homers and 20 steals last year, so we can dream on 20-25, but it will come with a slight minus Avg., and likely subpar runs and RBI’s for a high pick. I love the upside, but probably at more like his early offseason cost.
Fallers
Oneil Cruz 91.47-111.1
Speaking of interesting power speed guys with question marks, I bring you Oneil Cruz. He hit 20 homers and swiped 38 bags in 2025, but was a .200 BA landmine with a 32% K%. I am kind of surprised he has dropped this much, as the only thing that has happened since early offseason is the Pirates actually improving the lineup around him. But I still would not draft him here. He is likely a strictly platoon bat as he has a .172 career Avg and 54 wRC+ vs. lefties. The tools remain forever tantalizing, and I can see the case for taking a shot, but you really need to pair him with a solid Avg base, not to mention the lack of PAs will ding his counting stats.
Christian Yelich 121.97-140.9
Yelich only qualifies at UT in NFBC and any other format that requires 20 appearances for eligibility. But we knew that in November also. He likely overachieved a bit in 2025 as he hit 29 homers on 42 barrels. The leagues hit about 55% of barrels for homers. Obviously, there are park factors and individual characteristics that make this not a one size fits all stat. But Milwaukee is an exactly league neutral park for lefty power, and Yelich had a very poor 8.1% Pulled air%. So yada yada yada, he’s projected to dip to 20 homers this year, and at age 34 with recurring back issues, he’s likely to play fewer than the 150 games he did last year. He looks very similar statswise to Ceddanne now, but a decade older and UT only vs multiple eligibility, so it really makes sense to rank Ceddanne higher.
Tyler Glasnow 105.64-118.7
I’ve loved drafting Glasnow and dreaming of getting an ace at a discount if he could ever spike a mostly healthy season. Spoiler alert: he never does. He’s maxed out at 134 IP in 2024, and those innings all came early as he was on the shelf still when the Dodgers won the first of what will likely be 37 straight titles. Glasnow was upright for the playoffs in 2025, but only threw 90 regular season innings. And he was not quite as effective as usual, with an alarming 11.7% BB%, and a 3.88 SIERA was his highest since 2017 in Pittsburgh. The Dodgers will care little about how many regular season innings they get from Glasnow, they just want him there and in form at the end. And he’s not quite ace Glasnow anymore. Hard pass.
Cory Seager 97.94-107
Hey, here’s one I like at the new price! He’s always a tricky guy to roster as he goes on the IL every year, and even when healthy, he gives you no steals from an MI, so you need to account for that. But he remains an elite bat when he plays; he hit .271 last year with 21 homers in 102 games, with a 15.3% Barrel% and 92.9 EV (93rd percentile). I am a buyer here, and I did actually get him in my auction (I got Caleb Durbin, a steals guy, at 3B).
