You know, this signing of Zack Greinke with the Diamondbacks isn’t much of a surprise since Greinke is so intellectually driven and Phoenix is on the cutting edge of cyber-learning.  Did you know 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix go on to make six figures?  Of course, 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix are chosen to be in their commercials and paid $100,000.  That gives me an idea, we should start a college and charge students $200,000 for a 4-year degree, then hire every graduate for $24,000/year.  Shoot, every college and company are already working this scheme.  Any hoo!  Zack Greinke goes to the Diamondbacks and takes a hit in his value or will take multiple hits on his value.  Don’t think the Dodgers are really that much better offensively than the D-Backs.  Actually, they’re worse.  So, it’s not a hit due to chance for wins.  It’s a hit due to home stadium change.  Arizona’s decidedly a hitters’ park and the Casa de Doyers is not.  Arizona is around top five for hitting, whereas Dodger Stadium is around bottom five.  Things sway yearly, but Chase Field has had years in the top two for offense, only sniffing Coors’ butt.  Mean’s while, Dodger Stadium has had years in the bottom three for all offense, only staying in front of Safeco and Petco.  I doubt Greinke falls back to a 4+ ERA pitcher he was his last year on the Royals, but he was a 3.83 ERA pitcher in another hitting-friendly park in Milwaukee, and that’s not so good.   Oh, and Greinke is 32 years old.  Yeah, you don’t need a degree from the University of Phoenix to know this deal could go sideways real fast.  For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 15-8/3.54/1.16/194 in 210 IP and someone I am not going near.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in the offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Hank Conger – Traded to the Rays.  Finally, my morning Asian porridge of Conger will congeal into a 20-homer hitter!  Or at least he’ll be a solid 2nd catcher in two catcher leagues.  If you recall, and I know you do because you remember everything except your wedding anniversary, I liked Conger a ton last year, thinking the Astros would make him the starter due to his pitch framing ability.  They didn’t, but the Rays are another club that could see the benefit of that.  Why should we care?  He hit 11 homers last year in only 201 ABs.  If someone ever gives him 450 ABs, he could sneak into the top five for catchers.  Sadly, he’s still a wild card at this point since he’s currently penciled in as a backup backstop, why don’t you back dat thang up?  His projections are 38/16/45/.237 in only 300 ABs.

Jeff Samardzija – Signed with the Giants.  Great, he lands in a favorable place and now I can’t just write him off.  One of the keys to winning fantasy baseball, which reads like a Bleacher Report title, is having a short memory and a long memory.  The key is knowing when to use the short memory and when to use the long memory.  So, what do we use with Samardzija?  Do we write off his 2015 where he had a 4.96 ERA and a 6.9 K/9?  Or do we have a long memory and hashtag never forget that?  In the NL West in AT&T Park, I think we have to forget 2015, which disappoints me as much as it likely disappoints you.  His stuff is there, he just stopped trusting it.  His fly ball rate went up, which is a terrible thing to do in Chicago.  From looking at the numbers, I believe he tried to curtail homers by abandoning his fastball and using his slider more, which was not working for him.  He used his slider 24% of the time, which was 14th most in the majors, and he had the 2nd worst slider runs above average.  Fool me once, shame on you.  In Texas, we say don’t fool me again, because it’s not cool, but, unfortch, I would draft Samardzija again in his new digs.  Homers don’t fly out as easily, so his fly balls won’t kill him; he’ll be facing pitchers hitting and the NL; he just needs to fix his slider.  For 2016, I’ll give him the projections 11-9/3.66/1.19/197 in 215 IP.

John Lackey – After Lackey signed with the Cubs, I read that Henderson Alvarez was drawing “massive interest.”  If Lackey read that, I think he might’ve held out for another ten million dollars.  Lackey turned a 2.77 ERA year into only a $32 million contract.  Dude, next time just let Lori Grenier put you on QVC, she could get more.  For 2016, I’ll give him 14-11/3.72/1.24/167 in 197 IP.

Chase Utley – Re-signed with the Dodgers.  And you thought stupid left Chavez Ravine when Mattingly took off.  Conspiracy Theory Alert!  Who was Mattingly’s coach in LA?  McGwire.  Who’s his coach in Miami?  Bonds.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Mattingly used “something” when he was a player, and that’s why he either doesn’t mind giving these guys jobs, knowing how prevalent it was, or they’re blackmailing him.  Cust kayin’.  Utley will likely be used as a utility man and as a pinch runner when the Dodgers absolutely must avoid a double play.  For his sake, hopefully Utley doesn’t try to break up any double plays in any Stand-your-ground states.

Hisashi Iwakuma – On the first night of Hanukah, the Dodgers unwrapped their first gift, and, sadly, it wasn’t a Dr. Dreidel, but they might’ve got a potential number two fantasy starter.  Last night, Hisashi signed with the Dodgers and I foresee absolutely nothing wrong with this dashi for my Hisashi.  He’s a virtual lock for a just under-8 K/9 and an under 3.50 ERA.  Anyone want to take the bet Hisashi does better than Greinke this year in ERA?  Okay, how about this bet:  Hisashi’s ERA will be under 3.25 for all starts outside of Coors.  Who wants some?  I didn’t think so.  For 2016, I’ll give him 13-7/3.31/1.04/157 in 180 IP, as he’s one of the most underrated starters.

Chris Young – Re-signing with the Royals.  Sounds like some clubhouse is going to get the top of their shelves dusted!

Darren O’Day – Re-signed with the Orioles.  Up until Sunday afternoon, he nearly signed with the Nationals.  Here’s the Nationals doing a schoolyard pick of their bullpen, “Um, I guess we’ll take the kid who’s good at math and picks his nose.”  “Guys, I’m over here!”  “Next, we’ll take little Tommy’s mother so she can launder our unis.”  “Guys!  Hello!  I was the future of your bullpen!”  “Next, um…Okay, I guess we’ll take Drew Storen.”  Whoever Storen pissed off in the Nationals’ front office, I suggest no one else ever piss that person off, because they are spiteful.  As for O’Day, here’s his projections 5-3/2.15/1.01/78, 8 saves in 66 IP.

 
  1. Wutang says:
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    Hey grey! Long time basketball reader here, trying to work my way into the fantasy baseball side of things. after suffering through the blue jays for the last 10 years, and then their team going bonkers this past year, I couldn’t stop thinking about how 3 40 HR guys (well 2, and 1 39!) could look on a fantasy team!

    First question, when looking at your slashes for hitters/pitchers, what does each stand for? Obviously BA/ERA stands out, but what are the others in order?

    And next, saw in the David price (no comment) article you wrote last week that you said you avoid aces when drafting in fantasy… What’s the reasoning?

    Thanks again!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wutang: Avoid aces b/c there’s lots of pitching later… runs/HRs/RBIs/AVG/SBs, Wins-Losses/ERA/WHIP/Ks, sometimes Saves

  2. FKA Ralph says:
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    Hello! Baseball is coming back, right?

    I’m in a 10tm keeper, we keep ten each. SLG and OBP I/O Avg, IP, QS I/o W, and K/9 I/o Ks. I’ve got 6 hitters I’m planning to keep, (Cabrera, McCutchen, Freeman, Springer, Pederson, Rendon) and two SPs (Darvish and Carlos Martinez, late rounders)

    Five decent options for remaining two keepers — Blackmon, Baez, Greinke, Lester, Salazar

    What say you? I’m leaning Baez and Salazar

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @FKA Ralph: Baseball will be back as long as Carrie Mathison can stop Isis… Depends where Baez ends up, seems doubtful he’s the keep there though

      • FKA Ralph says:
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        @Grey: @Grey: ok. I just traded Greinke, Blackmon, and Rendon for Trout!!!!!!

        This leaves me keeping two from Lester, Baez, and Salazar

        My other keepers are

        Migggy
        Cutch
        Trout
        Springer
        Freeman
        Pederson
        Darvish
        Carmart

        I hate to keep 4 SPs, and probably need to see where Baez lands. In this league upside pays off and pitching is pretty easy to find.

        • Malicious Phenom says:
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          @FKA Ralph: GREAT get on Trout!..I would try and trade Lester & Sal for another keeper bat..

          • FKA Ralph says:
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            @Malicious Phenom: thanks! I’m stoked. Shopping Baez and Lester for a bat. Hopefully Altuve.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Baez is still not one of the two right now, but I’d wait to see if he’s traded this offseason…Then he might become one of the two

  3. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    Chapman traded to Dodgers for two prospects Jensen to setup

    Last pick of my minor league draft. My choices are

    1) Amir Garrett CIN
    2) Rob Kaminsky STL
    3) kolby Allard ATL
    4) Sean Manaea OAK

    Can you put the pitchers in order of who I should go after from first to last

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Grey

        So your order is 4,3,2 then 1 or 4,3,1,2?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You didn’t get 4?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            No just said 4,3

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Let me know if those two are taken

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                ok will do

                • Scott Kimmel says:
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                  grey

                  Just got a trade offer.

                  I give: Tolleson and Bautista
                  I get: Shelby Miller and Salvador Perez

                  Should I make it?

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    You are in the wrong post

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      What post should I be in

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      Where should I go to ask you that trade question

  4. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Soria signed with KC. What will his role be? 7th or 8th inning guy?

  5. jvanslyke says:
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    Hahha at the Lackey blurb. I fee like the other sharks look down on her for the QVC niche. Personally I prefer her to Robert constantly reminding us that he’s “sporty”

    Hoping the Greinke and Price contract hype push them to early second late first in March. I look forward to they being drafted before my pick and pushing Ian Desmond or Anthony Rendon to me again!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like when there’s a deal on the table from, say, Robert for $400,000 for 20% then Mr Wonderful says he’ll do $400,000 for 25%. It’s almost like Kevin doesn’t want to do deals and is just on the show to explain things to the audience….

      • jvanslyke says:
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        @Grey:

        I agree. He’s become a moderator. I think the producers made him limit the deals where he gets a kickback on every sale until his money is recouped. It seemed to confuse contestants, especially ones from the cupcake market.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, he’s the voice into the world…Also, a jackass… I’d love someone to be like, I don’t want you, Kevin, as a partner so you can go out…

          • SwaggerJackers says:
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            @Grey: I’m pretty sure everyone is thinking that, even if they don’t say it. Nobody really wants to be a slave to that D Bag.

            He also seems like the most likely one to sue you if he isn’t happy with a decision you make about your company.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Does he honestly think he adds something or is it an act?

              • SwaggerJackers says:
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                @Grey: He’s definitely playing it up. Every show like that needs its villain.

                Sometimes he really goes overboard with the “take your idea out back and shoot it” stuff. Those poor people spend a lot of their own money to get to that point. I agree some of the ideas of dumb but he loves taking the opportunity to be an A hole (Tehol?) about it.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I honestly don’t think he brings one single thing besides money

                  • SwaggerJackers says:
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                    @Grey: I could see him making one phone call to try to set up a licensing deal for a business he has equity in. Not a call to an actual company that would want the license, but a person that works for him that would make the phone call.

                    Beyond that, he’s probably so far removed from any practical day to day stuff now that he’s a D List celebrity.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      He’s a gourmand!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: I don’t think you are appreciating Mr. Wonderful. If I’m negotiating I want that guy on my side. He gets hated for having balls and not giving a f**k about what they think. Remember, he was the guy who chased someone down when he saw them make a huge mistake.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I think having balls is actually investing in companies…Mr. Wonderful doesn’t invest, he’s a narrator

  6. Malicious Phenom says:
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    Fox sports is reporting that the Dodgers could flip Chapman and a prospect to the Marlins for Jose Fernandez, before acquiring Chapman, Marlins said they would take Seager and Urias for Fernandez..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Interesting

  7. J-FOH says:
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    In mid November I told Sky over the Twitter that my number one guy for the Dodgers to sign was Samurai Slurp Slurp. All I want to know is if the Dodgers are creeping on my twitter to get ideas why don’t they just pay me to stand around and consult. They already waste enough money on bloated contracts, why not spend on a bloated consultant?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Magic Johnson looks a bit bloated, are we sure that job isn’t filled already?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: that’s his bloated ego that makes him look like that, I heard bloated egos add like 25 pounds on camera. Word on the street is if Kanye didn’t have a bloated ego he would the size of a dwarf.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Magic is like the only guy ever to get AIDs and get fat, right?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: way right! yurrrrighteeeoooo

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

          • SwaggerJackers says:
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            @Grey: He purchased the first billion dollar AIDS cure and celebrates this milestone by eating Fiat-sized buckets of hamburgers every day.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha!

              • Ante GALIC says:
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                @Grey: Too funny!!! Actually, not funny. Met many people I know who are HIV / AIDS positive in Zambia like my buddy George Musonda in Mumporokoso (this blurb would be his ONLY hit in google, apart from his obituary) have to do everything just to stay alive. None of them I know gained weight!

                Cheers,
                Ante

  8. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Fangraphs checks in with another(!) Aaron Hicks sleeper post already. Sheesh.

    Who do you think will be this year’s highest profile sleeper. I’m gonna say Rendon.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Two sleeper posts on Hicks already? Depends what you mean by high profile

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        Who will get the most “this guy could be a sleeper” articles on the internets?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’ve already posted a Hicks one and Fangraphs has two for Hicks… I’m gonna go with Hicks

    • SwaggerJackers says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: I’m fearing it might be Stroman.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @SwaggerJackers:

        Stroman is a good call too.

        • SwaggerJackers says:
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          @GhostTownSteve:

          Bats I think will show up in “value” “upside” or “sleeper” posts that will drive up ADP beyond any reasonable profit:

          Mookie, Bogaerts, Lindor, Wong (post hype now!), Odor (basically all the young middle infielders), Conforto, Buxton…

          Who else is on your list?

          • GhostTownSteve says:
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            @SwaggerJackers:

            Bogaerts and Lindor are going to be on my bust list.

          • J-FOH says:
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            @SwaggerJackers: Mookie, Bogaerts, Lindor: These three’s ADP will be too high to be any of those

            • SwaggerJackers says:
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              @J-FOH:

              Ugh, come on J FOH, let’s not start up the debate about how you define a sleeper, value, etc. You can have that discussion all day long on Fangraphs.

              You know my point with this….these are players that are going to get hyped a lot in the offseason.

              • J-FOH says:
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                @SwaggerJackers: well then include Correa, Schwarber, Bryant, Pollock and everyone else for that matter. The Conforto as a value is more in line with the discussion of sleeper and value…. And we have had the sleeper and how to define it discussion many times before, so its not just fangraphs.

                • SwaggerJackers says:
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                  @J-FOH:

                  I’d agree with Correa, Schwarber, Bryant, and Pollock as candidates that will have not value baked into their ADP.

                  Throwing in “everyone else for that matter” is where you lost me. What were you hoping to add to the discussion again?

          • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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            @SwaggerJackers: mookie was already too high last year, wong too. buxton (since he was pretty useless) will only be about has high as springer 2 years ago, and really only since he’ll start year as starter (springer didn’t come up till mid May 2 years ago)

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @SwaggerJackers:

        There could be some “Is Strasburg a sleeper?” stuff

        • SwaggerJackers says:
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          @GhostTownSteve: That last month really boosted his value. It’s a shame.

          • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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            @SwaggerJackers: soler too, damn playoffs.

  9. Roscoe P.C. says:
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    Are Chris Owings and Jose Ramirez(CLV) still worth spots in a 15 team dynasty? Will they have opportunities? I think with playing time on the reg. These guys could rebound. What do you think?
    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Depends who you’re losing to keep them

  10. Roscoe P.C. says:
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    I was going to try and trade for them. Lose minor pitchers Blackburn or Erlin types.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d do that

  11. Malicious Phenom says:
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    Mariners give up Carson Smith and Roenis Elias for Wade flippin Miley…bad trade for the Mariners in my opinion..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Terrible

      • Malicious Phenom says:
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        @Grey: Seems to me the Mariners never make any moves that make any sense, like giving away Mark Trumbo..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Like getting Trumbo…Then giving away Trumbo

        • GhostTownSteve says:
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          @Malicious Phenom:

          The Trumbo one makes some sense. They don’t think he’s very good. He’s arbitration eligible. He has no position. The trade they made with the Orioles they made because that was the ONLY market for Trumbo. Salary dump and as another benefit they can put Zunino at AAA.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            “They don’t think he’s very good”….Did they when they got him less than three months ago?

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Grey: Um Grey, uhhh…its a new GM in Seattle

  12. Looking for a Job says:
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    Grey,

    How would you rank the following players? We do OBP and SLG instead of AVG and HR:

    Odor
    Pederson
    Bogaerts
    Freeman
    Franco

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll have rankings in January

  13. Chezlow says:
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    Grey,
    What’s your go-to source for park factors? I’m a little new to that game but looking for a solid list to refer to. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I use ESPN

      • Chezlow says:
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        @Grey:
        What do you find the best way to utilize them is? Meaning should I be reading more into HRs or RUNS per park? I’m thinking RUNS for the pitching side and maybe a mix of the two for hitters?

        Thanks again for the time.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I look at runs and homers per park…For both hitters and pitchers… I don’t get too caught up in one year, try to keep in mind historical, unless a park has been recently renovated…

          • Chezlow says:
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            @Grey:
            That should get me started. Thanks. Love the site.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

            • Christine Michael: one Unlucky Whitehead (just pop him or not) says:
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              @Chezlow: like Grey said, don’t use one year as authoritative, use at least 3 years for each. BP does those for that much time.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Chezlow: I also use rotogrinders, they do lefty and righty

      • Chezlow says:
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        @J-FOH:
        Awesome thanks. I’ll check that out as well. Appreciate it.

  14. nick the dick says:
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    Finally finshed watching TC episode 1, yo yo yo she said I could get your Jersey red sauce meatballs at the local pizzeria hahaha! So, I see why you took Sal from Impractical Jokers, Foh has clean cut carrot soup right? Halfway thru I was digging 2 guys (ones who weren’t picked), one being the bald guy who ended up winning the elimination challenge. But I need to stay true to my roots, you know who I got. Bout to watch Ep 2

    • nick the dick says:
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      @nick the dick: and it’s Fargo night, wahoo!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I knew who you were going to take before you even did…Getting ready for Fargo!

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Grey: not too happy with my guy screwing up Mexican food. How did Foh not pick Isaac??…Fargo man, incredible

  15. J-FOH says:
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    watching the voice, has there ever been anyone as clearly the best than Jordan. This kid rips it

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