Last week was full of mixed results, and one thing has become abundantly clear. The pitching atmosphere that we saw in the early months has disappeared in the Summer, with the offenses taking command in the second half. That’s shown in some of my results recently, but I feel great about this week’s streamers. With that in mind, let’s look at the matchups and then dive into those streamers!
Favorable Team Matchups
7 Games
Boston Red Sox (vs. TEX, at BAL)
Los Angeles Dodgers (at MIL, at STL)
Minnesota Twins (vs. KC, at TEX)
Texas Rangers (at BOS, vs. MIN)
6 Games
Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. COL, at TB)
Baltimore Orioles (vs. WAS, vs. BOS)
Cincinnati Reds (vs. STL, vs. KC)
Colorado Rockies (at ARI, vs. SD)
Houston Astros (at TB, vs. CWS)
New York Mets (vs. OAK, vs. MIA)
New York Yankees (at CWS, at DET)
Philadelphia Phillies (vs. MIA, vs. WAS)
San Diego Padres (vs. PIT, at COL)
Toronto Blue Jays (at LAA, at CHC)
Pitching Streamers
Paul Blackburn, NYM (vs. OAK, vs. MIA)
Blackburn has been an underrated player since his days with Oakland, and he’s really found a home in NY. That’s the first major factor here because having two starts at Citi Field is magical for any one of our streamers. That ballpark has been the most pitcher-friendly park in the league for five years now. That’s amazing when you look at the opposition here because Miami and Oakland are terrible. The A’s rank 24th in runs scored, 26th in OBP, and 28th in K rate, while Miami ranks 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. We’d use almost anyone against those teams but Blackburn has thrown a pair of one-run gems in his first two games off the IL. That’s awesome since Blackburn had a 1.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home before landing on the IL!
Streamonator Valuation: $43
Spencer Arrighetti, HOU (vs. CWS)
Arrighetti’s numbers are atrocious, but this kid has some serious potential. The 5.33 ERA and 1.52 WHIP are a nightmare on the surface, but 4.03 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA tell a different story. That’s on par with what we’ve seen recently, with Arrighetti accruing a 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 rate across his last five starts. That doesn’t even include a seven-inning shutout a month ago and a 13-strikeout masterpiece on Saturday. He’s also been a different pitcher at home, posting a 4.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 rate at Minute Maid Park. That won’t bode well for the White Sox, with Chicago sitting last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s why he’ll likely enter this matchup as a -300 favorite as well!
Streamonator Valuation: $20.4
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI (vs. COL)
It’s risky to recommend a player who just debuted but E-Rod has been an elite pitcher at times throughout his career. He showed that last season, compiling a 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9 rate in a breakout campaign. That’s why Arizona paid a pretty penny to get him and he rewarded them with a win in his debut. He allowed just four hits across 5.2 innings against Cleveland, and that’s an encouraging sign against one of the best offenses in baseball. Colorado is far from that, with the Rockies ranked 28th in xwOBA and 29th in K rate. They’ve also been the worst road offense in baseball over the last five years, with E-Rod likely entering this matchup as a -200 favorite!
Streamonator Valuation: $39.3
Hayden Birdsong, SF (at OAK)
Birdsong was blown up in his most recent outing but we’re going to call that an outlier. The righty hadn’t thrown in nearly two weeks because of some procedural moves, and he was unstoppable before that. Birdsong didn’t allow more than three runs in any of his first six starts, totaling a 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 rate. He also had a 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 16.4 K/9 rate in two starts before that rare stinker, posting one of the best swing-and-miss rates in recent memory. That should play out in this outstanding matchup with Oakland, posting the ugly averages mentioned in the Blackburn write-up!
Streamonator Valuation: $6.5
Bailey Falter, PIT (vs. SEA)
We haven’t seen what Falter has done against the Dodgers yet, but he’s quietly been one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL. The lefty has allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts, generating a 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP since struggling in the opener. The strikeout stuff is the only thing missing for Falter to become fantasy-relevant, and those could come in this matchup. Seattle has a 28 percent K rate this season, one of the worst strikeout rates ever. They also rank 27th in OBP, runs scored, and wOBA, which should play out in a pitcher’s haven like PNC Park!
Streamonator Valuation: $-20.1
Hitting Streamers
Matt Wallner, MIN (vs. KC, at TEX)
Why is Wallner being so overlooked by the fantasy community? This man has been batting in the heart of Minnesota’s lineup whenever they face a righty and he’s been their best bat over the two weeks. Despite some limited playing time, Wallner has a .488 OBP, .970 SLG, and 1.458 OPS across his last 11 outings! The only reason he’s been limited is because he’s only in the lineup against righties, but that’s massive since they have five of their seven games against right-handers this week. That’s scary since Wallner has a .418 OBP, .699 SLG, and 1.116 OPS against them so far this season! Don’t be surprised to see Wallner’s ownership percentage triple this weekend because he might go from one of our streamers into a must-roster player with another big week.
Jeff McNeil/Jesse Winker, NYM (vs. OAK, vs. MIA)
The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last three months, and they might win every game this week. We already talked about some of their pitchers as streamers but McNeil and Winker should do work with these magical matchups. Let’s start there because Miami ranks 27th or 28th in ERA, WHIP, wOBA, and xwOBA, while Oakland sits 23rd in ERA, 25th in WHIP, and 26th in wOBA. Most importantly, all six starters for those terrible pitching staffs are righties!
Getting to face six righties should keep McNeil hot, maintaining a .309 AVG, .350 OBP, .606 SLG, and .956 OPS across his last 30 games. In addition, McNeil has a .290 AVG and .799 OPS against righties throughout his career. Winker has similar splits, sporting a .382 OBP and .848 OPS against them throughout his career. He’s also been batting third for the Mets, collecting 11 homers and 14 steals en route to a .371 OBP and .781 OPS!
SAGNOF (Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face)
Steals Specialists
Jake McCarthy (ARI)
McCarthy has developed into an everyday player in Arizona, recording 65 steals over the last three years. He’s only four short of reaching 20 for the third straight year and should add to that against subpar pitching staffs like Colorado and Tampa Bay.
Victor Scott (STL)
Scott just returned last week and has made five straight starts. That’s what we’re looking for from a speedster like this, recording 137 steals across 237 minor-league games.
Saves Specialists
Justin Martinez (ARI)
With Paul Sewald being removed as the team’s closer, Martinez has taken over. He has two saves and a win over the last week, pitching the ninth inning in nearly every game since the demotion.
Feel free to comment here or reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel if you have any questions!
