What is up DFS fans? Every team is scheduled to play today, although some storms and rain might cause some delays. It’s an elite day for starting pitchers, so you’ll probably want to diversify your lineups in the hopes that one of the lesser-owned pitchers has a great outing that gives your rosters the edge in GPP tournaments. For players who are new to DFS, there are plenty of nice starters who will put up good numbers for your cash games. Best of luck and let me know if you have questions in the comments!
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Shane Bieber ($12,000): Cash me outside because Bieber lines up against the Yankees, who have the 5th worst wRC+ as a team in the MLB. Yummy has K’d more than 10 batters in every game so far this year, so why not keep the streak going and make it 5 starts with 10+Ks against a Yankees team that can’t even keep Jay Bruce on the field. Start in all formats.
Michael Pineda ($9500): It’s gonna be a cold one up in Minny, but Pineda’s returned nice value in all of his starts so far. He’s playing way above his fantasy draft price and the Pirates are, well, the Pirates. And they don’t have Ke’Bryan Hayes. It’ll probably be a low-scoring event (O/U sitting at 8 as I write this) so Pineda’s worth a tournament bid.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8500): 1.69 FIP, 14% swinging strike rate, 24:4 K:BB rate this season, going against Seattle. Mariners are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in wRC+. Yup, there’s the dark horse GPP winner.
Freddy Peralta ($8800): Revenge game narrative? The Cubs clobbered the Brewers in Friday’s game, which gave the Brewers’ bullpen quite the workout. Freddy will be asked to spare the pen a little bit, so he could get a longer leash than expected. His walk rate is improving over the past few games while he’s still throwing elite K-rates. Despite having a nice Friday, Cubs are in the bottom 20% of the league in hitting. Make some Freddy lineups and see what happens.
Bryce Harper ($4800) / Rhys Hoskins ($4200) / Brad Miller ($3100) / J.T. Realmuto ($3800): The Phillies face off against Antonio Senzatela in Coors Field in cool, clear weather. Senzatela has allowed a 5.40 ERA with a nearly 5 FIP to go along with it, while allowing nearly 2 homeruns per 3 games. The Phillies are an obvious stack, and you should make a few different lineups using their batters to make the most out of the opportunity. Quick note — Brad Miller had a stiff neck and didn’t play Friday night. But, really, just have at it with the Phillies stacks.
Byron Buxton ($4500) / Alex Kirilloff ($2000) / Luis Arraez ($3100) / Josh Donaldson ($3400): Trevor Cahill takes the mound for the Pirates and he’s allowing a dinger and a half per game with a 1.77 WHIP. Bux is the obvious play and Kirilloff is done with his minor-league “seasoning” so he’ll get a chance to shine. It’ll be a cold game, but the odds are in favor that one of these guys launches a dong and plates Arraez, so stack wisely.
Mark Canha ($3200) / Matt Olson ($3700) / Matt Chapman ($3100) / Ramon Laureano ($3400): So you’re telling me that 35-year old Wade LeBlanc, who has given up 2 HR/9 over his past three years and doesn’t strike batters out and has had an FIP over 4.5 going from 2019 until now, is supposed to take on the Athletics? [fiendish cackling] Yeah, there’s your advantage.
Hunter Dozier ($2700) / Whit Merrifield ($3500) / Jorge Soler ($3100) / Andrew Benintendi ($2500): Matt Boyd has been more effective this year but these Royals crush him, each of them hitting over .300 in their careers against the HR-prone Boyd. This is a stack that not many people will be looking at.
Pivots:
- Manny Machado ($3500): Career 12-for-19 against Trevor Bauer with an OPS in the 2.000. Can’t leave him off many rosters.
- Mookie Betts ($4200): .800+ career OPS against Blake Snell and Snell’s been been below projected value every game this year.
- Charlie Blackmon ($4000): 7-for-13 in his career against Aaron Nola with a 1.500+ OPS.
- Madison Bumgarner ($6500): Still has been incredibly unlucky on the year and the Braves as a team hit .234 against him in their careers. Worth a dart throw as a contrarian play.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains:
Strong storms are moving through the south / south-midwest (the sequel to North By Northwest) and could delay the Diamondbacks / Braves game in Atlanta. Light rain threatens most of the east coast games, but the forecast is very scattered right now so keep your eyes on the forecast. There’s also a non-zero chance of snow in Minnesota, so if you’re up here like me, bundle up!
Doing Lines in Vegas:
At the time of writing, I’m seeing SEA +183 vs Boston. Now, Boston’s the best hitting team in the league right now and I told you to start Nathan Eovaldi against a pretty middling SEA offense, right? Well, no pain, no gain. Chris Flexen — the probable starter for Seattle — has been pretty average so far. If he puts out an average game with a bit of luck, he can limit Boston to 2-3 runs before handing the game off to the Mariners bullpen, which is surprisingly 11th in the league right now. Sure, I can see a 9-2 outcome for Boston, but I can also see a 4-3 win for Seattle, with a likelihood of maybe 25-35%. That’s not bad for possibly 80% gain.
