What is up degenerati? It’s cha-boi Blair out here on Saturday, which is my day of aggressive projection and fronting for the Vegas hustler crowd. [holds garlic martini] You fellas check out that Andy Williams tribute show yet? [dips hand in dish of peanuts] Check me outside of the betting window, and let’s get some comps together after we lose our stimmy money to the fair and honest workers at the good company Fanduel. Check my high-T picks after the signup offer!
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Pitchers:
Robbie Ray ($9100): Robert “Jordache” Ray was built to pitch and possibly sell jeans. His control has been stunning over the past month but he’s also pitching some massive batting practice for power hitters (3.0 HR/9 over the past month). Let’s call him Willians Astudillo! Ray faces off against the Rays…HAHA. These jokes write themselves.
Dylan Bundy ($7500): If you follow my pitching rankings, you’ll remember that DyBun is one of those SABRmetric darlings that looks stunning in the advanced metrics and trash in the baseball card stats. People are way off of him because they’re ignoring the unsustainable .400 BABIP. Regression will hit soon, and you’ll want to be on the bandwagon early for the start where he eventually gets some defensive support.
Adbert Alzolay ($6800): Last five starts: 2 quality starts, 29:4 K:BB, 0.86 WHIP. Check out Coolwhip’s Adbert Alzolay fantasy baseball outlook if you need more convincing.
Shane Bieber ($11500) / Gerrit Cole ($11400): Yeah you don’t need the breakdown on these guys. Cash them. Fair warning that the metrics people are warning that Cole has been outperforming his expected metrics and should be due for some bad performances soon.
Hitters:
Josh Rojas ($2900) / Eduardo Escobar ($3800) / David Peralta ($3300): I’m telling you to stack in Coors. Lock of the week! So, Antonio “I don’t strike out batters” Senzatela is pitching a mile up, where the air is thin and MLB wants to counter-act the no-hitters with loaded balls. These are your hottest hitters on the Diamondbacks who will face off against a pitcher who’s a pitch to contact expert.
Mookie Betts ($4100) / Justin Turner ($3100) / Max Muncy ($3900) / Gavin Lux ($2900): Sean Hjelle takes the mound for his first career start for the Giants, and he does it against the Dodgers. Why do managers do that? The same reason they feel that it’s productive to put Jacob deGrom against 18-year-olds in A-ball. So, Hjelle will face off against one of the best hitting teams in the majors, and you should take advantage of what will likely be a bullpen-heavy game. Keep an eye on Muncy, who sat during Friday’s game.
Nick Castellanos ($4300) / Eugenio Suarez ($3100) / Jesse Winker ($3400): The Reds face off against Brett Anderson [laughing sounds fill the air]. Brett Anderson was left in to get torched early in the year before going to the ineffective list, and since returning, he’s got a healthy 9+ ERA with a WHIP near 2.50. Well, why wouldn’t you start the Reds?
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4500) / Manny Machado ($3200) / Jake Cronenworth ($3000): Padres stack against Justus Sheffield. Sheff isn’t a strike out guy, and he’s got a 1.57 WHIP over the past month with a meager 6.0 K/9. So, the Padres will make plenty of contact and, well, the Mariners have been crushed recently. Make some lineups with the Padres.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
There’s some rain moving through the midwest, with a chance to affect the Royals / Tigers game and the Cardinals / Cubs game. Otherwise, it looks like most of the games should be unaffected by rain.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
At the time of writing, I’m seeing what is — to me — a bit of a wild line on the White Sox / Yankees game, with the White Sox a stunning +185 compared to the Yankees -205 on the consensus lines at Vegas Insider. Of course, this is because Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees, and he’s simply not walking anybody. That doesn’t matter to the White Sox, of course. Now that Tim Anderson is managing the team, I take some faith in Dylan Cease — the most improved pitcher in MLB over the past month — in throwing a fair game. So, I’m seeing an inefficiency here, and would recommend including the White Sox in your bets today, because I don’t think they’re as much of an underdog as the bookies.
