Happy Tuesday and welcome to another edition of FanDuel DFS here on Razzball. We have a near-full slate and the only weather to worry about is Colorado where the Padres and taking on the Rockies. Tonight’s top-priced pitcher is John Means ($11,000) vs the Mets. Fresh off a no-hitter, Means looks awesome. However, I’m going to pay down a bit for pitching today and his price is a bit too rich for my blood on a slate like this. If you’re also on board with fading Means, there are many pivot options. What say we have a good DFS night tonight, eh?
Build your lineups with confidence and visualize the money coming in. Go with your gut and stop second-guessing yourself. Don’t take what people suggest as something that IS going to happen, we are just laying out what we believe to be advantageous matchups and plays. If the ownership of a stack you like is projected to be super high, fade it. In GPPs, it’s very unlikely you take it down on a full slate tourney with a stack that’s 22% owned. Remember, this is baseball and anything can happen on any given night. And with that, we cue the music…
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SP to Own
Walker Buehler, SP: ($10,800) – There are a few reasons I’d rather go here than with Means vs the Mets. First, the Mets get on base a ton vs LHP (.380 – highest in majors) and Seattle doesn’t vs RHP (.296 – bottom 5 in majors). Seattle strikes out more than the Mets, and Buehler is pitching at home. Means is coming off his highest career pitch count. Buehler’s yet to go less than 6 innings in any start and gets a very solid matchup tonight. He hasn’t had that super start like Means has done a few times, but that could all change tonight.
Madison Bumgarner, SP: ($8,700) – I didn’t think I’d ever write his name down again after the first 3 starts of the season during which he gave up 17 runs in 13-ish innings. However, since then he’s had 4 starts for a total of 23 innings, 25 Ks, and only 2 earned runs. That’s good for a 1.17 ERA and 0.43 whip. There’s going to be regression to somewhere between his first 3 and last 4 starts. The question is, do you believe that regression will begin today when he takes on the Marlins at home? I don’t think I’ll have too much Mad Bum, but it’s not the worst matchup.
Pablo Lopez, SP: ($8,000) – He always seems to give a quality outing. He was only able to go 5 vs the DBacks his last time out. As long as he can keep his pitch count intact, Lopez is a very likely quality start candidate. If you take out that minor blow-up vs Atlanta back on April 13, Lopez has been able to strike out over a batter an inning while only giving up 3 runs in 35+ innings. The only worry here is if the K’s will be high enough to get us where we need to be.
Brady Singer, SP: ($7800) – Since his first start of the season, Singer has gone 25.2 innings through 5 starts with just under a K per inning, a 2.10 ERA, and 1.01 whip. The strikeouts are not where we’d like them to be, however, he’s got the Tigers which should add 2 or 3 to his normal number. Singer looks dominant as ever his last time in Detroit and will look to match that performance of 7 IP, 1 run, 8 Ks, and a W.
Low Owned/Mid Priced Dart
Robbie Ray, SP: ($8,300) – His velocity is up 3 mph from where it was in 2019. With that velo have come the swinging strikes and the strikeouts should follow though they haven’t yet. His walks are way down and he’s almost beginning to look like the good 2017 Robbie Ray. The average DFSer will see this matchup and move on. However, besides Acuna, the Braves have been straight-up bad vs lefties this season. Atlanta has the 4th highest K rate in the NL and lowest walk rate vs LHP. They’re ahead of only Detroit in wOBA, AVG, OBP, SLG, and wRC+. In other words, besides the Tigers, the Braves are the worst hitting team in baseball vs lefties. I expect that will change as the year goes on, but with Ray’s improvements and the Braves’ struggles, this could be a low-owned sneaky good matchup tonight.
First Base
Jesus Aguilar, C/1B: ($3,500) – As much as I’d like to see Mad Bum continue his resurgence, I’m also going to hedge against him with some of these Miami bats. Aguilar seems to be in 2018 form, and the 30-year-old puts the ball in play vs LHP (4:5 K:BB), and with his massive power that 50% flyball rate vs southpaws should begin to transition to more long balls.
Yermin Mercedes, C/1B: ($2,900) – Maeda seemed to right the ship his last time out. We’ll see if he can keep it going. Mercedes seems to go under-owned on a daily basis. He’s hitting .363 at home and .370 vs righties this season. We obviously have to assume he’s going to cool down, but Maeda has given up 6 HR in his past 2 road outings and Mercedes hasn’t shown us any reason to doubt him.
Second Base
Whit Merrifield, 2B (OF): ($3,700) – 25 for 51 with 9 doubles, 6 SB, and 14 runs career vs Boyd. Furthermore, Merrifield feasts of lefties overall. We went with Merrifield last Tuesday vs LHP Hentges and he went 1 for 2 with 3 BB, and 2 steals. I’ll gladly take those 20+ Fanduel points tonight in Detroit.
Jean Segura, 2B (3B): ($2,900) – After missing more than two weeks, Segura came back and promptly went 8 for 13 over the weekend including a 3 for 4 night on Saturday with a HR. He’s in a great spot in the lineup and should be a solid member of a Philly stack vs Fedde and the Nats.
Third Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B (1B): ($4,000) – I’m just going to continue to roll him out there. The ownership shouldn’t be too high, though if you see data saying it is, pivot elsewhere. As of writing this, I’m not positive who the starter will be in this game, but I’m on Vlad regardless. It originally looked like Fried, but that seems to have changed. I’ll edit if we hear early in the afternoon.
Mike Brosseau, 3B: ($2,400) – This is a matchup/ownership play vs Montgomery, who gives up 35+% flyballs and hard contact to righties this season. Brosseau has always been a much better hitter vs lefties and even with his overall struggles this season his ownership and price should be way down.
Short Stop
Miguel Rojas, SS: ($3,400) – He’s hitting the hell out of the ball vs LHP. This is another member of the Marlins hedge stack vs Mad Bum. He’ll be low-owned and in a solid lineup spot. He’s only struck out 2 times vs lefties this season and was able to take Bumgarner deep last Thursday in their matchup @ home.
Outfield
Ronald Acuna Jr, OF: ($4,500) – The ONLY Brave that seems to be able to do anything vs LHP this season, Acuna is the one-off I’ll go to from the Braves side today.
Bryce Harper, OF: ($4,100) – Fedde can be had by lefties. Harper has been crushing RHP. It’s pretty much that simple. Add on their history where Harper has gone 4 for 11 with two homers.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: (3,200) – Cutch is on FIRE! And I love it. This should be a solid matchup for the Phils tonight and he’s most likely leading off.
Adam Duvall, OF: ($2,900) – Though it hasn’t shown this season, Duvall is historically a better hitter with much more power vs LHP. He’ll be in my stacks vs MadBum and is my call for a double bop night tonight vs the DBacks.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Check weather updates in Colorado as it’s going to be cold with a chance of rain throughout the game. As of now, it seems to be a drizzle but things can change pretty quick in Denver. Either way, it’s not ideal hitting conditions in Coors tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Though an over/under of 9 is usually a little high, I can see this Phillies / Nationals game going over. Both pitchers are prone to blowups and as long as Soto is back in action, the Nats lineup should be able to put up some runs. I don’t think the Phillies will have any trouble scoring tonight. Take the over.
