We had our first brutally bad week last Sunday. Basically, everything I told you to do was wrong. I said to roster Mahle and Jaiver over Scherzer. I told you guys to roster the Tigers vs Kluber. Well Mad Max pitched a complete game and struck out pretty much everyone and Kluber pitched 7 crafty innings with a enough K’s to have a big day shutting down Detroit who is the worst offense in baseball (I tell you now right). I could say something about PROCESS over RESULTS which is absolutely true but you have your process (hopefully, wait you guys have a process right?). You come here for some +EV plays boost your lineups and I failed you, badly. Its bound to happen, but not like this.
Seriously, its a good learning experience. Don’t listen to a word I say. Ok, for real, seriously, we are up overall if you’ve used good contest entry strategy and bankroll management. So, lets just pick up the pieces and get ready to get that money today. I wont say “lets go!” because its been so played out by the Topshot bros and many other “bros”. We need something though to get us amped up for this week, lets fu*#ing go baby! Much better.
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Here is where my Mets fandom will give you an edge. Jacob deGrom will be pitching today. Ignore the red DTD next to his name on FanDuel. Mets media had enough time between Racoon or Rat investigating (isn’t being a Mets fan swell?) to give us a firm commitment on Jake for today. He is in, and he is cheap ($12,500) relatively speaking. Since rostering Jacob deGrom doesn’t take much analysis I will give you a pivot for GPPs, but take my word on this, play Jake in your cash game lineups, all of them.
Sandy Alcantara, SP: $9,000 – Alcantara is nasty and the Brewers strike out a ton. Next! Okay fine a little more analysis forthcoming. The Brewers have been playing great ball this year, even with all the injuries but they are tied for 3rd with the most strikeouts and they get punched out 30% of the time vs lefties. Alcantara has been consistent all season and with 37 FanDuel points in his last 2 starts, I think he is in a great spot to get us 40+. Rudy’s FanDuel projection has him scoring 34.1 points. If you have to pivot off of deGrom I think you can’t do much better than Alcantara, especially at this price point. While he isn’t the K artist that many of todays top pitchers are (about 9K/IP) he certainly has double digit strikeout potential against this lineup.
Tyler Mahle, SP: $8,900 – Go ahead say it. “again?!?” I know Mahle killed us last week. He hurt me in my dynasty league too where I traded for him fairly cheap. He had been great until last Sunday, but every pitcher has a stinker from time to time. I am going right back to the well. Many people, particularly casuals, will be scared away because he shizz’d the bed last time out, but DFS sharps and grinders know that is the best time to roster a good pitcher. Unlike Alcantara, Mahle has tremendous bat missing ablility. He is striking out an impressive 12 per 9 this year and over 11 last year.
The Indians, as a team, do not strike out much, but they also don’t do many other offense things much. Like hit home runs or score. They are 23rd in the league in OPS and have been winning this year on the backs of their pitching. Kind of like the Mets without the stupid shizz and bad Metsian (TM) luck. Cleveland is hitting .210 for the season so I see Mahle going in there and having himself a big bounce back game. It will be apropos for Mahle to have a big day for us exactly 1 week after having a bad day for us. #wordplayislit
For hitters this week I am not going to get too cute. Ruth could go up against Joey Lucchesi and strike out, baseball is weird like that. So for today’s purposes, lets just get a cash game stake plus a little Mets insider trading for your GPPs.
Boston Red Sox are facing Dean Kremer of the Baltimore Orioles. He had a decent start last one out but the one before that he gave up 10 hits to the Yankees. The only thing that would make this matchup better for Boston is if it was in Boston. Not that Camden Yards isn’t a solid hitters park but still… Anyway I love the Red Sox today up and down their lineup. Roster Alex Verdugo ($3,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,500) so we can save money for bats like J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,600). Lets not overthink this one, the Red Sox hitters should absolutely rake this afternoon. If they don’t it happens this is baseball. If they do I’m a genius and you can thank me in the comments.
‘Insider Trading is the Only Way to Trade’
I wish I really had some secret inside info to share with my readers. I really do. That said I do think this is good info that people just looking at the numbers might no appreciate. Whatever happen between Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor down in that tunnel it has them both locked in. They both had at least 1 run scored, stolen base, RBI and hit in last nights game. Lindor just looks more confident at the plate. No bullshit, I’ve watched hundreds if not thousands of Mets games in my day and I’m telling you Lindor finally feels comfortable. I don’t care what hand the pitcher throws with, the ballpark or humidity (ball carriers farther in humid weather) McNeil and especially Lindor are locked in and will be locked into my lineups. I wouldn’t be mad if you went with deGrom, Lindor, McNeil and Big Pete as part of your primary cash lineup. Or to save money sub out Pete and go with Villar. The Mets are awoken, reap the rewards friends.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Watch out for the Tigers game today it will definitely have a delay and who knows if they will play it or not. It’s pretty easy to fade Tigers but also fade Twins today. Or look for an edge by being the only one to roster Buxton. The Mets game should start dry, but should be able to finish. I’m literally betting it will.
Doing Lines in Vegas
I don’t love too many games today. The moneyline seems about right for almost every game. If you just like to have a sweat why not parlay the Angels and Pirates as straight dogs. The Dodgers barely snuck out with a win last night in a game that should of been much easier. Plus whenever you have Ohtani and Trout you have a chance. Then the Cubs find ways to lose even though they are playing better then people thought this year. Throw $20 on the parlay and buy me a beer if it hits. Cheers and Good Luck!!!