Well, this is going to be an interesting day. We have a whopping 12 starting pitchers at risk due to weather as well as a number of teams I’m fading completely due to risk of postponement and to top it all off we have Tampa and Toronto playing in a 7 inning makeup game…..Fun. I’m gonna do my best to help you navigate the land mines and win some money today. Let’s dig in.
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We have an odd situation today for pitching. At the top of the list, we have Scherzer at $11,100 followed by McCullers at $8,800. Clearly, Scherzer is a great pitcher and is always a play so play him if you want. I’ll focus on the other guys tonight.
Lance McCullers Jr., SP: $8,800 – McCullers makes a ton of sense today and he’ll be in a number of my lineups. Seattle is near the bottom of every major hitting category with the exception of one….Strikeouts. Pretty simple to me.
Dallas Keuchel, SP: $7,700 – I didn’t see myself recommending Dallas today but the vast weather concerns are steering me in this direction. We have 6 games with weather issues and it’s always sketchy to run a pitcher out even in a delay scenario due to teams not wanting to risk injury. Dallas has been decent this year to date and in a small sample (40 plate appearances) the Cardinals are sporting a horrendous .514 OPS against LHP.
Randy Dobnak, SP: $7,500 – Next up in the weather nightmare is Randy Dobnak. He was called up earlier this season and has performed quite well. He has only given up two earned in four starts with 11 K’s in 20 innings. His main downside is that he hasn’t been stretched out yet only hitting 6 innings once this season so you likely will not get a quality start bonus and the K totals won’t be great. But for a new call up he looks great.
J.T. Realmuto, C/1B: $3,700- JT has been mashing everything this season and there is no reason to believe that Rick Porcello is going to do anything to slow that down. However, the weather might. Please keep an out for postponement before trotting him out
Yuli Gurriel, C/1B: $3,000 – One of the bright spots in the Astros misery tour is Yuli Gurriel, and he apparently loves playing the Mariners. In his last two games, he’s gone 4-7 with two home runs and he gets a chance to smash a lefty arm tonight. I’ll take it.
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $3,800 – As a Braves fan I always try to avoid recommending them just to avoid my personal bias but Freeman is sporting a xwOBA of .400 in 55 batted ball events and matches up extremely well against Elieser Hernandez. He’s been streaky so it’s tough to predict but I’m stacking Braves today so there is no way I leave him out.
Garrett Hampson, 2B: $3,000 -Not really a huge fan of the 2B we have out here today. But of the guys we have, Hampson is my favorite play. Kolby Allard is not the kind of left-handed arm that scares me. When you have a 37 percent hard-hit rate and you’re in Colorado you may be in for a bad day.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,300 – Same deal as above. Arenado hits lefties well, Allard gives up a lot of hard contact. Moving on.
Yoan Moncada, 3B: $3,500 – Watch for weather here but I like Moncada today against Dakota Hudson. He gave up four earned in four innings against….Pittsburg. The White Sox are clearly not on that bottom rung in terms of offense. I’d be willing to stack this game if I wasn’t so concerned about weather. Yoan is sitting on a .234 ISO while Hudson is allowing a 43 percent hard-hit rate against LHB.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,200- I flat out can’t stand Correa anymore but at 3,200 facing a lefty I’ll deal with that and put him in my lineup today. He’s sitting at a reasonable .211 ISO and he’s going against Sheffield who has a whopping 50% hard-hit rate with a fly ball rate of 39 percent. He’ll be in my Astros stacks
Trevor Story, SS: $4,300 – No need to explain the Rockies situation again. Play him.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,600- Alvarez is a top play on today. He is still too cheap on every site, though FanDuel pretty close. Although the Astros face a lefty today in Justus Sheffield Alvarez had solid splits against lefties a year ago, and Sheffield might not pitch too deep.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,000 -Jon Lester has a 1.06 ERA through three starts of the season. A closer look at his metrics will tell you he’s been lucky to start the season. Lester has been unable to miss bats with a ridiculous 3.9 SwStr%,a poor 13.6 K% and he’s still been extremely lucky stranding runners (94.8 LOB%). All signs point to Yelich bouncing back as well as many of the Brewers for that matter.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,800 – It’s pretty much the same story as Sano but with much more consistency. Cruz has been consistently underpriced. He’s always a home run threat and when you’re facing a guy who gives up a ton of hard contact he deserves a look.
Bryce Harper, OF: $4,300 -Harper is smack in the middle of 6 straight games with at least 12 points with two 30 point outings. He’s done that largely with base hits as he’s only hit 2 hr’s in this span. Harper is one of these guys that can get dialed in a start having back to back games with multiple home runs completely breaking a slate. From the looks of it I think we’re at the front end of one of those hot streaks.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
NYM @ PHI, WAS @ BAL, CLE @ DET, TBR @ TOR, BOS @ NYY are the main games to be concerned with and there is a lower end chance but TEX @ COL also runs the risk for a delay. I can justify you playing the bats in delay situations but unless you are very confident that it won’t be an issue I would avoid pitchers in these situations.
Doing Lines In Vegas
McCullers and the ‘Stros are the big favorites today at -240. Surprise, surprise, we have a huge over/under in COL at 12 runs!! The MIL@CHC game has the lowest run total today at 8.5 so it appears Vegas is thinking offense rules the day.
