On this massive 4 game slate, let’s see, well, hey, at least FanDuel was smart enough to start the slate at 6:40 PM EST to make it a mostly unplayable 4-game disaster instead of an entirely unplayable 3-game disaster. So, yay FanDuel! Oh, I guess it’s possible that the odd start time + the beginning of the NFL season will result in some baseball GPPs not filling, so be on the look out for overlay. That’s all I got. It’s not an exciting slate. On to the picks…
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Zack Greinke, P: $10,500 – Greinke is the safe pitcher of the day. He gets strikeouts (24.9%) and doesn’t walk anyone (5%). He’s at home, he’s facing a not great Braves offense and is the clear top pitcher of the day.
Luis Castillo, P: $8,200 – Castillo has some skills, he strikes out 23.4% and walks 7.1% to go with an average 44.5% ground ball rate. That puts him above average as a starter and the Padres are a gift offense. They are garbage, they love to strike out (25.8%) while hitting for no power (.132 ISO). The only bad part is that they aren’t in San Diego and are instead in Cincinnati, but you still get the Padres, so call it a win.
Cleveland Indians – The best spot of this massive day goes to Cleveland. Gaviglio isn’t a completely awful pitcher, he’s just not good. He doesn’t get lefties out at all with 15% strikeouts and 7.7% walks. He also loses the ground ball ability he has vs righties (from 52.4% to 43.5%). Luckily, Cleveland is filled with lefties. The top of the lineup boasts Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez. They all crush baseballs and are excellent plays. Then we get to Yonder Alonso, who’s also an excellent play. After that, you’re just playing Melky, Kipnis and Allen as part of a stack because they swing from the left side.
Cincinnati Reds – Eric Lauer this year has struck out 18.4% and walked 9.3% and has a 38.8% ground ball rate. The Reds can and should take advantage of him. So far in his young career, he’s actually shown to get no strikeouts vs lefties (10.4%), but has a pretty good 50% ground ball rate and vs righties he’s shown the ability to get strikeouts (20.7%) and no ability to get ground balls 34.6%). He walks both righties and lefties, so there will be baserunners. We want guys who can lift the baseball (especially the lefties) with some power. Of the righties, Eugenio Suarez (62.9% of balls in the air and .273 ISO) and Phillip Ervin (66%.and .158 ISO) get the ball in the air and are good plays. Somehow, Billy Hamilton also hits the ball in the air vs lefties at a 62.1% clip, so include him with the guys who hit the ball in the air, but not with power. For the lefties, Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are solid enough at getting the ball in the air vs lefties, 55.6% and 56.8% respectively, that they are still solid plays even giving up the platoon advantage. Jose Peraza is a fine play at his salary, since he’d be a salary saver, but Lindor is just a much better play.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Cincinnati has a small chance of rain, but it looks like it’s fine.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Cleveland Rocks! (Take the over of 9).