What’s up folx? Tough night for me in DFS Wars last night, with an 11th out of 15th finish — far worse than my 6th place finish in week 1. Yesterday, I went with two great pitchers in my DK lineup — Shane McClanahan and Aaron Nola — and received an acceptable number of points, but I was really hoping for one of them to hit 25 points. I stacked the Rangers, which was a fine decision for the cost, but my complimentary grouping of Red Sox batters did zilch to help out. Meanwhile, the White Sox and the Cubs combined for a billion runs, so nothing much I could do against the chalk donkeys. Of course, any team playing against the Cubs now are considered chalk. Let’s check out some of today’s plays!
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Starting Pitchers
This is a hitter’s lineup today, with the only chalk pitcher being Framber Valdez. Or maybe Nathan Eovaldi. Yeesh. My personal DFS planner literally says to start nobody. So, it’s time to gamble.
Lance Lynn: Alright fans, put your love where your mouth is. Wait, that sounds wrong. Lynn’s got a sub-7.00 K/9 over his last two starts and a 5.00 xFIP. Over his last 30IP, things are better with a nearly 10 K/9 and 4.00 xFIP, but his swinging strike rate over the last 7 games has been below 10% in 5 out of 7. As I’ve been saying all year, Lynn’s fantasy/DFS value comes from volume, not efficiency. When he’s on, he’s a crotch grabber. When he’s off, he shouts vulgarities from the mound. Actually he does both of those regardless of his performance. ENYWHEY. This is quite literally the best pitcher on the slate today…because he faces off against the Cubs.
Other Options:
- Kyle Gibson (vs ARI)
- Adam Wainwright (vs PIT) — This is probably going to be the “right” play for most builds.
- Frankie Montas (vs NYY) — Scared money don’t win!
Hitters
Remember that I’m writing and submitting this well before roster lock, and these players have a greater than 50% chance of being in the lineup today. As always, check lineups before submitting your entries. If you’ve got the bankroll, go wild in the mega entry events today because most of the pitchers are crud.
These are my crushers, who are identified as being both favorites in Rudy’s DFS Tools as well as being the top batters on the slate in terms of home/away and handedness splits for wOBA, ISO, and line drive %. Put these batters at a 40%+ exposure or build around them for single entry events:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Kyle Schwarber |
| Rafael Devers |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Pete Alonso |
| Matt Olson |
| Bryce Harper |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My Hobbits are batters who have less stringent power requirements but are some of the cheaper bats on the slate.
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Justin Upton |
| Avisail Garcia |
| Miguel Sano |
| Joey Gallo |
My list of unexpected cheap hitters is huge today. These guys are defined by being the cheapest bats on the slate with the highest line drive % against the handedness split. These guys are also the most likely to sit, so please check lineups if you play these guys.
| Think Differently |
|---|
| Tucker Barnhart |
| Aledmys Diaz |
| Kyle Tucker |
| Martin Maldonado |
| Jesus Aguilar |
| Anthony Rizzo |
| Gio Urshela |
| Luke Voit |
| Chad Pinder |
| Josh Harrison |
| Yan Gomes |
| Ben Gamel |
| Bryan Reynolds |
| Tom Murphy |
| Alex Dickerson |
| Curt Casali |
| Darin Ruf |
| Yadier Molina |
Favorite Stacks
| CHW |
| MIA |
| BOS |
| TOR |
| TEX |
| SEA |
| SD |
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are a couple of scattered storms throughout the US, but only the MIL/MIN game looks to have a threat of significant rain (20-25% chance at the time of writing). Los Angeles has the lowest pressure in the US, so maybe increase your Dodgers stacks today.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Rockies are +220 at the time of writing. Jon Gray sucks, but not that much. He’s got an 11 K/9 over the last month, and he’s facing David Price, who has a sub 6 K/9 (nice!) over the past month. Let variance control this game and see if some Rockies batters (are there any left?) can get some hits to land while Gray does his thing.
