What’s up, everydegenerate? I believe that’s the proper pronoun for DFS players, right? We’ve got a full slate of baseball on this beautiful Saturday, to which I’ll be able to watch maybe thirty minutes of baseball thanks to all the blackouts and lack of streaming options on YouTube TV. Whatever MLB wants me to watch is what I’ll report to you! On the plus side, it gives me more time to look at box scores and deep analytics. Up on the downside, Soundgarden. [waits for 2 people to get that joke]. Let’s jump in and see some options for your DFS slate today!
Carlos Martinez ($8200): There was one no-hitter yesterday (Wade Miley) and a near no-no in Sean Manaea (see Coolwhip’s awesome Sean Manaea Outlook here). The last time I did this DFS gig I gave you the 7-inning no-no of Madison Bumgarner. Who am I going to choose for your wild no-no chance today? Carlos Martinez. What are some of the common denominators for these 2021 no-nos? Pitchers who were “off” in the previous seasons and had some injuries/bad outlooks. [Carlos Martinez enters the picture] I’ll admit that I’m the pitcher guy here at Razzball and I’ve completely overlooked Martinez’ quiet success over the past month. He’s got 3 quality starts in his last 5 appearances, a 3.48 FIP, a WHIP of 0.99, and a K/9 of…uh-oh…4 per 9. That’s what I haven’t noticed him. Still, when many SP are going few innings in this world, Martinez is an affordable option with a better than average chance at nailing a 6+ IP start with low damage. Imagine he goes 7IP with 1ER and 5K. You’ll take that, right?
Jose Berrios ($8700): How is Christian Javier over $1000 more than Jose Berrios? Berrios faces off against the Tigers, who are one of the worst batting teams in MLB this year. Over the past month, Berrios has 10 K/9 per start and a FIP of 2.88. No quality starts though. Ready to see a change in that trend? Berrios has a great chance of charging into the top tier of DFS players at his cost today against the soft-hitting Tigers.
Garrett Richards ($7400): He’s fixed his mechanics, just like your local repair shop that will no longer charge you $700 for an oil change. Over his last two starts, he has 17K to 1BB and 12IP. Here’s your tournament pick for the biggest return on value. However, he’s still prone to some blowups. Go big or go home!
Nelson Cruz ($3600), Kyle Garlick ($2000), Mitch Garver ($2700): This Twins stack is pretty cheap, and Garlick and Garver have been raking recently. Cruz is on a cold streak but he’s been hitting hard throughout the season and has a great track record. Jose Urena — the Detroit Tigers projected starter today — isn’t as bad as people make him out to be, but he’s still pretty average. The Twins will be a common stack but these players seem like a good trio to center a lineup around.
J.D. Martinez ($4300), Xander Bogaerts ($3600) Rafael Devers ($3500), Bobby Dalbec ($2100): The Red Sox are a cash lineup that will be top-owned today, and of course, worth a tournament start in all formats. They face off against rookie Zac Lowther of the Baltimore Orioles, and the Red Sox are one of the best-hitting teams in the majors this year. Vary your lineups around the Sox and see if they return a ton of value based on the weak matchup.
Dansby Swanson ($2300), Ronald Acuña Jr. ($4400), Austin Riley ($2500), Christian Pache ($2200): The Braves face off against the Phillies and Vince Velasquez, who has put up some good standard stats recently but also features a 6+ FIP over the past month. That means regression is going to hit hard soon, and what better day than today for your DFS team!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains:
There’s a big storm centered on Montana right now, but it looks like it will avoid most MLB games today. Boston vs Baltimore is the most likely game to experience rain, but it looks like it might be a minor nuisance at most. Also, I’m not a meteorologist, so check the weather before lineup lock.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
I’m seeing Pittsburgh at +160 this morning on Vegas Insider, with a +150 at many major sites. Yeah, it’s an uphill climb, but the Pirates have the 7th best bullpen in the majors. If today’s starter Wil Crowe can get through like 4 innings and then hand off the game to the pen, it gives the Pirates batters a chance to tee-off against Cubs starter Trevor Williams, who has a FIP above 5 the past month. I think that’s an inefficiency in the betting market that you can take advantage of today.