Hello again my fellow degens. Welcome back to our Sunday installment of MLB DFS. I finally lost count as to which number this is. It could just be my brain trying to erase these articles from my memory due t0 less then stellar performance as of late. This article is going to be a bit of a look back and then of course some plays to make for todays slate. I want people to feel confident that they are getting quality plays when they come here. Even though I had a good week personally 2 of my last 3 Sunday touts have mostly missed the mark. If you have wagered on the teams in our Lines in Vegas section you feel different because I have been close to a stone cold lock with regards to bets. Unfortunately for me, if not so much for you, this is primarily a DFS article. Before we get into the WHO, I want to talk about the HOW.
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Process Over Production
You may have heard this before. You have definitely heard me say it if you are a regular. It is a truism that sometimes appears like a cop out. Trust me when I tell you it is not. If you play DFS as more than just a casual, your process is by far the most important part of a winning strategy. You might say, well research is more important. How you acquire information is your process though. If you just log in here and get a few plays then plug in the rest with guys you like or from FanDuel’s research then that’s fine, but you are probably more of a casual player. You just play DFS for fun and maybe to win a few bucks here and there. Or, hopefully for you, a lot of money by shipping a big GPP. If you play everyday, grind out cash games or play more then 20 or so lineups in GPPs multiple times a week then you know process is king.
Now, what exactly should one’s process be is totally different for everyone. Some people are math guys and they dig deep in Razzball for advanced stats and projections. Some people watch a lot of games and roster guys based off of who they’ve seen (this is hard especially in baseball but I know successful people that watch as much as possible and play hot streaks). Then there are mixtures of both. I personally like to find 3 or 4 pitchers and about 20 hitters just by looking at the matchups and prices. I write them down, yes with a paper and pen lol, then dig in further using our great tools here at Razzball. Which brings me to our struggles recently.
Three days ago I won $100 (which for me is great I only play between $10-50 a day. I used to have a lot more invested everyday because I was grinding cash games but now that I’m a family man I don’t have time. So I just play a few GPPs with some other games mixed in for variance sake. (And because its more fun). I rostered Will Crowe at about 6.5k, then loaded up with big time bats. It worked out great, Crowe pitched well enough to not kill me and a handful of the guys I rostered hit home runs. The problem for me here, and this time you guys too, is I only write one article a week. I’m not coming close to saying that I am so good I should be writing the article everyday. Just that its is hard for me to be consistent for you guys with only one article a week. Basically, I’m pretty good at this. If you read me everyday my loses would be balanced out with my wins. What I am asking is for you guys to trust your process, but also trust my process and the fact that I am doing my utmost to give you +EV plays, even though they don’t always turn out.
My editor Matt would probably tell me that that was unnecessary, and he may be right. (Editors Note: I was just thinking that…creepy) I just felt like I needed to get that out there. I actually I have an idea what I am doing. To that point, lets take a look at what pitchers I like today. It should always be obvious that the most expensive guys are worth a look. If I think they should be faded, I will tell you, otherwise I probably wont mention them much. You can figure out yourself that Bieber and deGrom are good plays. You come here to find out if Will Crowe is worth the risk.
Big Risk, Big Reward
Luis Castillo, SP: $6,800 – I love these kind of situations in DFS. Luis Castillo has been a dominate pitcher in baseball in recent history. Yet this year, he is struggling pretty bad. That has brought his price down to around the Kris Bubic and Dallas Keuchel level. Two years ago that would have been crazy, yet here we are. You can probably skip him in cash games. Let me say, sound strategy would say to skip him in cash games, but he’s so cheap, if I didn’t love another pitcher I would roster him. Castillo either sucks all of sudden, or he is going to bounce back at some point. In a matchup against a team that is, and will finish in, the top 3 in strikeouts, I think its a great time to roll the dice in GPPs. If you only have one lineup maybe go with the next guy on this list, but if you have multiple I would definitely, I will definitely, roster Castillo in some.
JT Brubaker, SP: $7,300 – Brubaker has been very solid this year, especially for fantasy players. You might think its odd to roster him against an offense like the Braves. Yet the Braves this year have been very all or nothing. If they don’t hit home runs they haven’t been scoring much and JT hasn’t given up a ton of hard contact. He also hasn’t been giving up many bombs. I think this is a solid contrarian play in tournaments.
Since I went kind of long to open the article I wont go too deep into hitters. I do plan to expand my breakdown of stacks and individual hitters going forward though. Tune in for that.
Indians right handed hitters. Done.
Ok I am only half joking. I have Happ on my dynasty team so I have paid closer attention to him than most. To start the year he was good, but they used him with kid gloves. He wouldn’t go deep, wouldn’t go near the lineup a 3rd time through. Now he isn’t even getting through the lineup the first time. The White Sox crushed him. That was in the infamous “player hits a home run in a MLB game”. Wait, what? What was the problem again? La Russa is such a Boomer. I actually did well in DFS rostering the Sox in that game and that Mercedes home run put me into the money in a few GPPs. You wouldn’t get mad at a basketball player for making shots in a blowout, why would you get mad at a baseball player for hitting the ball well. Wow I really digressed here.
Just roster Indians right handed hitters and make sure you have shares of Jose Ramirez (I think Franmil is out today with an abdominal strain). Just to be clear I am dead serious. Any and all Cleveland righties are in play particularly the power bats and guys at the top of the order. Just because we want as many at bats as possible. That extra AB can spell the difference between a cash or not.
I am also going to be targeting Yankee righties. Keuchel is solid but he operates off of soft contact, the way the Yankees are hitting they should feast on him today. The game is at Yankee stadium which is basically a little league park as far as offense goes.
Yankee Stand Outs
To close out for today Matt Harvey is on the mound so the Nationals are in play. The Nats haven’t hit great this year and I do think Harvey will bounce back at least somewhat. That is why I didn’t list the Nationals. This is just a feel thing. I’m a Mets fan so I know Harvey and his inner most thoughts. *sarcasm font No, but he is a pro and much more mature, I can see him finding a way to get through 5 IP without too much damage today. I thought about mentioning him as a pitcher to roster but even when he was good early he wasn’t great for fantasy.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
The Kansas City Royals are the only team looking at a possible delay. Since I didn’t mention anyone from that game I don’t care. If you do though check out the link, it might get delayed so be careful rostering Bubic.
Doing Lines in Vegas
There is actually a lot I like today in baseball. This is one area where I have actually been giving you guys consistently good info. I should of done one of those things where I bet fake units. But that’s dumb as hell because the easiest thing in the world to do is bet fake money, so those wagers mean very little. It means something for me because I am building a rep and need to be right way more then I am wrong if I plan to go anywhere in the fantasy/betting writing space. That said here is what I like.
I like the Pirates +155 to win outright. I was not impressed with the Braves over the 3 game stretch vs the Mets. That combined with the liking Brubaker and the PLUS side of a bet leads me to go that way.
Something I like to do is parley 3 games. In 2 of them I will pick favorites or teams at -110 then throw in one dog at something like +155. If you are inclined to do that I would go with Pittsburg moneyline, combined with the Yankees and Brewers both at -118. Throw $25-50 down and that is a solid payday. If you do not like the Pirates then bet the crap out of the Yanks. They have good success against soft throwing ground ball pitchers like Keuchel. I also like Peralta and the Brew Crew today.
Good Luck Everyone!!!