Happy hump day everyone! I don’t like this slate from a pitching perspective. Aaron Nola is a stud but it’ll be 90+ degrees with humidity in a ballpark prone to homers. Miami may not great offensively but they don’t strike out much. Similar situation with Luis Garcia in Houston against Baltimore. Chris Bassitt has a decent matchup but I have a hard time paying $9,800 for someone who doesn’t offer up much in the way in strikeouts. Joe Musgrove is in Great American Smallpark on a hot, humid night as well. He’s only eclipsed the 40 pt. threshold once in his last 11 starts. I liked Cal Quantrill but with it now being a double header, the game has been removed from the slate. Steven Matz has a good matchup but he’ll be on a pitch count coming off the IL.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Aaron Nola, SP: $11,000 – As I mentioned in the intro, I don’t really care for this match-up. More importantly, though, I don’t like any matchups from a starter’s perspective. I’m betting on talent here and hoping he gets it done.
Luis Garcia, SP: $10,500 – While I don’t think his line in this game will be anything special, Houston should dominate this game. Matt Harvey takes the mound for the O’s and barring a Garcia blow-up, should inherit a W by default.
Catcher/First Base
Jared Walsh, C/1B: $3,300 – It’s going to be very hot and humid in the Bronx tonight. A short left-field porch on a night where the ball will be flying should catch your attention.
Rhys Hoskins / J.T. Realmuto, C/1B $3,200 / $2,900 – Citizens Bank Park is consistently a top 5 hitters ballpark and is in the heart of the east coast heatwave. Miami’s scheduled starter Cody Poteet, was placed on the IL Tuesday. It’s unclear how they will be handling it, but a bullpen game or spot start from a minor leaguer sure sounds like a good deal to me.
Second Base
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,200 – It’s too easy to pick on Matt Harvey at this point. Although his combined fastball and sinker usage is nearly 60%, which should play nicely into Altuve’s aggressive batting approach.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,100- David Peterson has been good in his last 3 starts, only allowing two runs total. He is, however, a lefty and Albies batting right-handed dominates his platoon splits. He has a career .399 wOBA batting righty vs .321 as a lefty.
Third Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B: $4,700 – I was on the Justus Sheffield bandwagon coming into the season but he’s looked like a fish out of water this season. His groundball and strikeout rate has dropped and his statcast page is bluer than any ocean I’ve seen. Conversely, Vlady has been lived up to his prospect hype and then some.
Cavan Biggio, 3B: $2,900- Justus Sheffield throws his sinker and slider a combined 73.7% of the time this year. Since 2019, Biggio holds the 2nd best wOBA against that combo in MLB (.373) vs LHP.
Short Stop
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,600 – Mike Minor may have only given two ERs against the Sox on 6/20, but it was at home and allowed 10 baserunners. He won’t be in such a friendly pitcher environment this go around in Boston. Lefties struggle in Fenway with the green monster in right. This one might turn into a blood bath.
Didi Gregorius, SS: $2,500 – I suspect he will be activated for this weekend’s series due to convenience/logistics. He’s been a rehab assignment since last week and reports sound positive. If he plays tonight, he should have solid pitching matchup on good night to hit homers.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. SS: $2,800 – He’s cooled off a bit since his incredible start to the season, but he does have a 5-game hitting streak. I doubt anyone will be on him with Nola on the mound. He’s a versatile player that can score you points in different ways and it will be a very favorable run-scoring environment.
Outfield
Randal Grichuk, OF: $2,700 – He’s quietly been putting together a great season but it’s easy to understand with how much fan fair the rest of the team is getting. He should have plenty of RBI chances against a struggling pitch to contact lefty.
Tommy Pham, OF: $3,000 – Pham has really turned it on in June. He has a 1.014 OPS en route to a 180 wRC+. His mound opponent, Vladimir Gutierrez has looked far from impressive and his ERA is finally creeping north as result. The Padres are an interesting stack as well due to their atrocious bullpen.
Mitch Haniger, OF: $3,300 – He has two hits in each of his last four games. Steven Matz will be limited to 60 pitches. Toronto’s pen is really banged up at the moment. Seattle’s lack of depth kills their stack appeal but you can still pick your spots in this one.
Will Myers, OF: $2,500 – Combine a small park, a hot humid night, a pitcher that walks over 10% of the batters he faces, a terrible bullpen and a patient team with power and you end up a great stacking opportunity. The Reds have the 2nd worst bullpen in the game with an ERA just under 5.5. Play whoever you can afford in one.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Slight chances of rain in Cincinnati and Boston so just double check before lock. If you’ve been watching the news, you’re aware of the heat waves going on at both coasts. The heat index in Philadelphia is forecasted for 101°, which will make for a very good run scoring environment. Similarly, Houston will be experiencing similar heat but I suspect that they will close the roof. Additionally, the Yankees’ game will also be around 100° at first pitch.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Twins (Bailey Ober) at White Sox (Dylan Cease) – O/U 8.5 runs scored, take the over. Cease has shown flashes of excellence and Ober has done just enough to stick around in the majors. They leave much to be desired though and the line is too high for a game that includes these two offenses.
