The thing about the future? It’s unknowable. Some things we can know with pretty good certainty, like the weather. You can see a hurricane forming because it’s the size of a small country, but you still can’t predict with utter precision where it will make landfall because the air masses over the continent are different than those over the ocean. Basically, ya gotta wait until go time to see what happens. The same thing applies to baseball, only on a much more volatile scale. Players have a certain trajectory, but sometimes they do things to intervene in that trajectory: they train in a different way, they find the right coach, or they eliminate parts of their game entirely (see Ray, Robbie). With that, we highlight Schmohawk of the Year, Teoscar Hernandez, who could finish with a 30/10 season with 100 RBIs. Even the baseball card lovers like that stat line! Teoscar Hernandez has a ridiculous split in his favor today: a .400 wOBA home/away, a .480 split vs hand, and a .400 ISO vs lefties like Brady Aikin. Let’s hop into our DFS picks for today:
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Starting Pitchers
Chalk: Charlie Morton, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito.
Expensive but Leverage: Sonny Gray
Roll the Dice: Yusei Kikuchi (he’s tired and fastball MPH has been down)
Hitters
Remember that I’m writing and submitting this well before roster lock, and these players have a greater than 50% chance of being in the lineup today. As always, check lineups before submitting your entries.
These are my crushers, who are identified as being both favorites in Rudy’s DFS Tools as well as being the top batters on the slate in terms of home/away and handedness splits for wOBA, ISO, and line drive %. Put these batters at a 40%+ exposure or build around them for single entry events:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Joey Votto |
| Eric Haase |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Matt Olson |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My Hobbits are batters who have less stringent power requirements but are some of the cheaper bats on the slate.
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Sam Hilliard |
| Jared Walsh |
| Miguel Sano |
| Joey Gallo |
My list of unexpected cheap hitters is huge today. These guys are defined by being the cheapest bats on the slate with the highest line drive % against the handedness split. These guys are also the most likely to sit, so please check lineups if you play these guys.
| Think Differently |
|---|
| Eddie Rosario |
| Ehire Adrianza |
| Bobby Dalbec |
| Bobby Bradley |
| Zack Short |
| Aledmys Diaz |
| Martin Maldonado |
| Andrew Benintendi |
| Hunter Dozier |
| Billy McKinney |
| Cody Bellinger |
| Jesus Aguilar |
| Avisail Garcia |
| Kolten Wong |
| Luis Urias |
| Omar Narvaez |
| Rowdy Tellez |
| Willy Adames |
Favorite Stacks
| TOR |
| TB |
| MIN |
| KC |
| CHC |
| WSH |
| CHW |
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
50% chance of rain with STL/CIN, so Sonny Gray might be less-owned than usual. Of course, a delay would ruin your hopes of a big Gray day. 20% chance of rain for PHI/WAS.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Miami is between +180/+215 at the time of writing, and they’re sending rookie Edward Cabrera against the Mets. Cabrera went 6IP in his first start but his minor league K totals didn’t transfer to the majors. Debut jitters? Take a chance on Cabrera coming back to his 12+ K/9 form against one of the most embroiled hitting teams in the majors in the Mets.
