What’s up fellow Fanduelers! It’s pitcher-palooza today, with basically every marquee pitcher toeing the rubber. [checks notes] Actually Marquez isn’t out there, so it can’t be a true marquee day. Marquee Marquez! But if you’ve got some coin to spend after society has re-opened and you’re looking to toss it down the DFS drain, I’ve got picks for you! Also, come buy my restoring hair tonic. Meet me after the sign-up blurb!
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Rich Hill ($8600)– The fabulous Dick Mountain takes the mound! Problem is, so does every other good pitcher today. You want deGrom? I don’t need to tell you to start him. Everybody’s starting deGrom. And if they’re not starting deGrom, they’re starting Gausman, or Rogers, or Means…you get the idea. It’s a hot slate. And Dick Mountain’s gonna be the low-owned ace (besides Yusei Kikuchi). So, 32:11 K:BB ratio over the last month, 0.85 WHIP, 9+ K/9, and 4 quality starts in 5 attempts. That’s great odds for a W, IP, and Ks without getting torched. Sure he’s risky for the cash options given the quality starters, but for those GPPs, get your low-owned ace and let him ride.
Lucas Giolito ($11600)– Dude got kicked out of the game he wasn’t even playing in this week for arguing balls and strikes from the dugout. Oh, and then LaRussa took the umpire’s side. REVENGE NARRATIVE. You’re looking for a wonky ace with a chip on his shoulder. Also 37:11 K/BB over the last month and an ERA under 3, so he’s playing well too. But, REVENGE. Hopefully it’s not served cold.
Merrill Kelly ($7000) — Faces off against Milwaukee, and the Brewers suck at hitting. The Brew Crew have the 4th highest K% in the league, a wRC+ of 84 as a team, and they have the 5th worst wOBA in the league. So, batters aren’t getting on base. Kelly’s baseball card stats look awfully messy, but underneath the hood, he’s got a 3.38 FIP and 1.23 WHIP over the last month to go with a ridiculous 34:9 K:BB ratio. And despite having an ERA north of 4, he’s got 3 quality starts out of his last 5 games. Nice! Look at the inefficiency. Now go profit off the inefficiency.
Alex Cobb ($8500)– Faces off against the Mariners, who are the worst hitting team in the league. Take that, Brewers! Also, RIP to my TGFBI team, which achieved a Mariners stack. Now the Mariners lost Kyle Lewis and are going to be even worse. Excellent! Because you’ve got Alex Cobb on the mound, who’s been K’ing over 10 per 9 since his return from IL. He also averages about 5IP a game, which isn’t great, but you never know when the 7 inning start could happen. Discount ace!
Mark Canha ($4200), Matt Olson ($4400), Matt Chapman ($3800), Chad Pinder ($3800) — Yes, I am telling you to stack against the Rockies. It’s gonna be hot. It’s gonna be a mile up. It’s gonna be Kyle Freeland. It’s basically the most obvious play on the slate and you’re wacky if you’re not including some A’s in your lineups.
Alex Bregman ($3200), Jose Altuve ($4100), Yuli Gurriel ($2600), Carlos Correa ($3300) — The Blue Jays are in Buffalo playing at their minor league field. Of course, you can go for the usual Vladdy/Bo Bichette move. You can also go for the Houston stack, which faces off against Ross Stripling. Stripling has a 5+ FIP on the season and has allowed nearly 2 HR per game, which is [checks notes] crizzap. Yuli’s slugging over .500 in the past month, Correa’s slugging over .600 this past week, and Yordan is…kinda in a slump. But whatever. Stripling, Buffalo, bombs. Stack.
Giancarlo Stanton ($3500), Aaron Judge ($3600), DJ LeMahieu ($3000) — They’re a bit cold with the bat, which is how I describe my Halloween parties in Minnesota as well. They face off against Eduardo Rodriguez, who is either tired or injured because his swinging strike rate has plummeted by nearly half over his past few starts. Over the past 5 starts he’s blown up with a 7 ERA and a WHIP nearly near 2. His walks are worse, but it’s the 13 hits per 9 that really stands out. He’s putting all kinds of players on base, and the Yankees are a great team to roll with.
Pivots: Juan Soto ($4000) and Trea Turner ($4200), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4500), Jesse Winker ($4300), Rhys Hoskins ($3700)
Catcher of the Day: Sean Murphy ($3000)
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
It’s a scorcher across the United States today. Make sure you’re hydrated. I used to work manual labor outdoors in the summer and our motto was “If you’re not peeing, you’re not drinking enough.” That motto also works for the after-work parties. ENYWHEY. Rain possible down in Houston but they’ve got a roof. Stay cool.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
At the time of writing, Arizona is +200 against Milwaukee as the consensus on Vegas Insiders. I mean, I know Brandon Woodruff is good, but that’s a more lopsided line than Gerrit Cole was getting. Is Woodruff better than Cole? No, not right now (and we’re seeing some spin change…hmmmm). ENYWHEY. You saw above that Merrill Kelly is hot, and he’s much better than the +200 would have you thinking. That seems like an attractive line to get people to throw money at the game. Take advantage while you can, because the odds of Arizona taking the win against the Brew Crew are much better than the bookies are laying out.
