Welcome to another quirky Wednesday main late. Jacob deGrom has played his way into plug and play status for DFS. Unfortunately, the main slate starts at 7:05 PM EST and the Mets play at 6:40 PM EST. Fear not though as we have a healthy 10-game slate on tap. Well almost healthy as I don’t expect the Cardinals and Phillies game to be played due to rain.
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Alex Wood, SP: $8,800 – Talent has never been the issue for Wood. Injuries have plagued him at times through the last couple of years only throwing 48.1 IP the last two seasons. The Rockies are currently 9th in runs scored but they can thank Coors Field for that. As the Rockies are tied for last in MLB in wRC+ with the Tigers. They are one of the best teams to stream against as a result and Wood looks to be back to form early this season.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $11,000 – Rodon has some very unsustainable numbers. Those being, 95.9% LOB rate, and a .105 BABIP. Regression will come on those. The Tigers, however, are tied for the worst offense in baseball with a wRC+ of 79. Moreover, that number is even worse against lefties somehow (42 wRC+) and a league-leading 34.2% K rate.
Catcher/First Base
Ryan Zimmerman, C/1B: $2,300 – The veteran is enjoying a bit of a resurgence early this year slashing .297/.333/.568 with 3 HRs. I’ve always been a bit of a fan of Steven Matz. He’s shown flashes throughout the years of being a good pitcher and a change of scenery seems to be helping. However, Matz is what he is at this point in his 7th year in the bigs. Which is a serviceable pitcher prone to big blow-up starts.
Rowdy Tellez, C/1B: $2,400- After going hitless in his first 6 games of the season, Tellez seems to be coming into form more than his .183/.222/.267 line would suggest. He’s got big power and has been hitting clean up for the Blue Jays. The price is too hard to pass up against a meager RHP in Erick Fedde.
Second Base
Jose Altuve, 2B: $3,800 – He picked up right where he left off before going on the IL with COVID-19. He already has four hits in his two games back and goes up against Justin Dunn. Justin has a respectable 3.68 ERA but his 5.60 FIP and .194 BABIP suggest some strong regression coming at some point.
Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS: $2,500 – He, along with the rest of the Yankees offense has been bad, very bad. Torres hit 13 homers against Baltimore in 2019 and while I doubt that is going to ever happen again. He does have hits in 3 of his last 4 games including 2 last night against them. It figures to be hot, well at least for spring baseball at 81° at first pitch. The Yankees still have a top 2-3 lineup despite the doomsday panic surrounding them.
Third Base
Alex Bregman, 3B: $3,700 – Bregman hit 41 homers in 2019 despite being average to slightly below average with his hard-hit data. Looking closer we see he’s a pull hitter (45.3%, 47.7%, 52.8% last 3 seasons). Minute Maid is built for his game with the short porch in left field. He would’ve hit 47 homers that year had he played all his game there rather than the 41. He’s been solid this year, .308/.366/.407. He gets a nice matchup against a guy who as I mentioned, has some regression coming his way.
Vladimir Guerro Jr., 3B/1B: $3,700 – A 3 homer night will make anyone’s numbers balloon this early in the season. I don’t expect another multi-homer game but he’s been good and gets a soft matchup tonight in a nice hitters park.
Short Stop
Trea Turner, SS: $3,500 – Everyone has been waiting for the 25+ HR/ 40+ SB season for Trea. Injuries have railroaded that as he’s only been able to manage one full season in 2018. I think it’s finally happening though. He hit two homers yesterday and is in a good spot against Matz in a solid hitters park.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,800 – Correa has been largely disappointing since his impressive first 3 seasons in the majors. He had a strong postseason last year and has carried that momentum so far this year. The Astros have the highest implied run total on the slate at just over 5. Justin Dunn, could prove me wrong but that’s a bet I am willing to take.
Note: Gleyber Torres, is eligible at short as well. I really like him tonight and if you went for Altuve, and looking to save some salary, Torres is your man.
Outfield
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,500 – In his first 107 games, Yordan has 30 HRs and 96 RBI and he’s only 23. All he does is produce and he should have plenty of chances in this one.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,400 – It has been homer or bust for Stanton early on. He has 6 homers and is batting an ugly .205/.271/.462 line. He’s in a great park in Baltimore and against a young pitcher in Dean Kremer, who is still learning the ropes in MLB. Kremer has had control issues in the majors, 13.5% BB-rate. His prospect history suggests that will improve over time but let’s strike while we can. Also, he’s not an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but the 40% rate to this point in his career should serve us well though in a small ballpark.
Randy Arozarena, OF: $3,400 – Randy is starting to heat up as he has 7 hits in his last 5 games. His opponent, Cole Irvin, doesn’t miss many bats with a swinging strike of 9.1% in his career. He also isn’t great at limiting hard contact, 39% hard-hit rate. There are better spots to stack than Tampa bats tonight, but we shouldn’t ignore this game altogether.
Trey Mancini, OF: $3,000- Outside of half a season in 2019 Domingo German, has been pretty subpar. He owns a career 4.61 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Trey is one of the more underrated hitters in baseball. He holds a respectable .813 OPS across parts of 5 seasons. A good, cheap bat, on a warm night in Baltimore, against a subpar pitcher. Yes, please.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It seems unlikely that the Phillies v. Cardinals games gets played tonight as there is a 69% chance of rain at first pitch (nice). With that percentage increasing throughout the night.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Nationals v Blue Jays O/U 9 runs scored- take the over – I like bats on both sides of this one, it will be a warm humid night in Dunedin. Plus both pitchers have question marks surrounding them, this could turn into a bit of slugfest. Especially since neither bullpen is all that good.
