FAAB Week 6: Paint It Black

Now that we have a full month of baseball action behind us, it’s time to start reviewing some of the broader trends affecting our little fantasy baseball game. We are quickly approaching the time when sample sizes start becoming “real,” but I like this first month delineation because on a larger, team-wide scale, there is a good sense of directionality. In addition, a month is a clean chunk of time our human brains can comprehend, which dictates how these MLB teams operate. Accordingly, I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that we started seeing movements in the promotion/demotion market this week.

Since we focus so much on matchups here weekly, let’s review some opportunities to continue fueling the STREAM TEAM train.

First up, here are the five weakest offenses in April by wRC+:

1. Chicago White Sox (73) – No surprise here considering the squad of Triple-A and DFA members they field.
2. Miami Marlins (74) – The Fish only have two players with a wRC+ over 100 (Luis Arraez and Bryan De La Cruz) with a putrid bottom half of the lineup.
3. Colorado Rockies (80) – This will make us reconsider our Coors Field stream approach here a bit in the future… maybe.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (86) – Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado look broken and old. Without those two anchoring the team, the Redbirds look to be in for another long summer.
5. Oakland Athletics (88) – To be expected.

Feel free to roll with just about every starting pitcher against these teams (maybe a bit of a caution with the Rockies in Colorado, but still). Another great benefit is that three teams (MIA, STL, OAK) have decidedly pitcher-friendly parks too.

Now, here are the five worst pitching staffs in April by ERA:

1. Colorado Rockies (6.05) – Pretty obvious.
2. Los Angeles Angels (5.08) – The Angels forgot to backfill for Ohtani’s departure in the rotation, whoops.
3. Chicago White Sox (5.05) – Again, we saw this coming. Chris Getz is trying to find who did this.
4. Miami Marlins (5.02) – Hey, I’m noticing a theme here. The Marlins, Rockies and Sox have a collective .232 winning percentage. Feel free to stream against them for all fantasy needs in the hitting and pitching departments.
5. Houston Astros (5.01) – Easily the most surprising appearance, but not so much considering Houston has already employed 22 pitchers in April after deploying the same number total last season. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez have returned and should help lower this ERA, but the bullpen is rough and will have to battle fatigue all season.

Now for a new stat listing, I watch thanks to Baseball Savant, leveraging their catcher throwing leaderboard, seeing who is allowing baserunners to steal at free will. I’ll give you the top ten culprits here:

Yeesh, White Sox. Feel free to target the Pale Hose for every fantasy stat you need throughout the season. The other teams that pop out here are the Padres, Reds, Mets, Angels, and Rays. The Mets catching situation is especially poor as Narvaez, Francisco Alvarez, and Tomas Nido have collectively thrown out one runner in 25 attempts on the season.

Alright, with all of that in mind, let’s get to the suggestions this week, Razzballers.

The stats and ownership percentages below are updated as of noon central time on 5/3.

As always, if you want advice on specific roster decisions you might have, feel free to leave a comment. You can also find me on twitter (X) (@mcouill7) and bluesky (@mcouill7.bsky.social).

CATCHERS

10/12 Team Adds

Connor Wong (BOS, 36% CBS Ownership) – Seriously, what are we doing here? Wong needs to be owned in all leagues at this point as he’s the fifth best catcher in our Player Rater and is locked in as the number one catcher in Boston over Reese McGuire. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Mitch Garver (SEA, 41% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Elias Diaz (COL, 39% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Keibert Ruiz (WSN, 35% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Patrick Bailey (SFG, 27% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Shea Langeliers (OAK, 24% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Danny Jansen (TOR, 20% CBS Ownership) – Not only do we have our Player Rater to decipher year-to-date performance, but there is also the Last 7 Days stats view. Jansen ranks as the third best catcher over the past week thanks to three bombs and is securely playing over Alejandro Kirk. Feel free to add Jansen in 12-team leagues as well; I prefer him over all the guys above except Wong and Diaz. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Ivan Herrera (STL, 13% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jake Rogers (DET, 12% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Miguel Amaya (CHC, 5% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Joey Bart (PIT, 5% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Ben Rortvedt (TBR, 3% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)

INFIELDERS

10/12 Team Adds

Tyler Black (3B, MIL, 29% CBS Ownership) – Speaking of promotions after a month, Milwaukee decided that Black had proven himself in Triple-A after opening with a .303/.393/.525 (135 wRC+) slash line over 117 plate appearances. The 23-year-old should walk right into full playing time as the Brewers are souring on the Jake Bauers experience (the experiment has yielded a 38.2% K-rate). He’s going to be a bit of an odd corner play given that his game is plate discipline, contact, and speed. Black should produce a line akin to 15 homers and 30 steals with a .260-ish average over a full season. The average can settle anywhere as he hit .307 over 241 Triple-A at-bats and I don’t believe in the projections saying he’ll be in the .240’s. (5-7% FAAB)

Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF, TEX, 39% CBS Ownership) – This blurb is less about Smith and more about the Rangers. Texas has seven games slated against Oakland and Colorado on the road next week. With that in mind, all Rangers starting bats need to be owned and streamed next week. Yes, even you, Leody Taveras, and your 78 wRC+. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/SS/OF, BOS, 47% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL, 42% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Ty France (1B, SEA, 40% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Masyn Winn (SS, STL, 34% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Luis Garcia (2B, WSN, 34% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Brett Baty (3B, NYM, 32% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Willi Castro (3B/SS/OF, MIN, 29% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Blaze Alexander (SS, ARI, 28% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Tyler Freeman (3B/MI/OF, CLE, 25% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Tyler Nevin (2B/3B/OF, OAK, 16% CBS Ownership) – It’s Tyler Week here on the Infielder analysis as Nevin has possibly found a permanent home with his fourth organization. The 27-year-old has been absolutely on fire this past week, slashing .417/.440/.792 with three bombs. He certainly won’t stay that hot, but Nevin should be able to produce as a league average bat that hits .250 with 15 homers while hitting at the top of the order. Given his eligibility, that is quite the salve for plenty of fantasy teams out there. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Zach Neto (SS, LAA, 19% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL, 18% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Brayan Rocchio (SS, CLE, 14% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Josh Rojas (2B/3B, SEA, 13% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Joey Ortiz (2B/3B, MIL, 12% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Trey Lipscomb (3B, WSN, 10% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Gabriel Arias (1B/3B/SS, CLE, 8% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Miguel Vargas (2B, LAD, 7% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Elehuris Montero (1B, COL, 6% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Jon Singleton (1B, HOU, 2% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Vidal Brujan (2B/3B/SS, MIA, 2% CBS Ownership) – Another advantage to exploit with those worst offenses and pitching staffs above is looking for internal upgrades. The Marlins are struggling mightily yet have a young bat projected by most systems to be roughly league average just rotting away on the bench in Brujan. Miami may have been taking notice too as he has started six of the last eight games while offering positional versatility. Marlins GM Peter Bendix brought Brujan with him from Tampa, so you have to think there’s some favoritism to be shown too. Despite not swiping a bag yet, the 26-year-old is a 70-grade runner per FanGraphs with a history of gaudy steals totals in the minors. He should be a significant speed asset if the Marlins are looking to shake things up and add him to the lineup. (3% FAAB)

Abraham Toro (2B/3B, OAK, 4% CBS Ownership) – Toro has been firmly cemented in the A’s lineup as his positional flexibility and switch-hitting bat allow him to find a spot nearly every day. The power numbers are never going to materialize for him as his Savant page is rather blue in the hard contact department, but Toro has great contact rates and feel for hitting (just look at that magnificent Savant spray chart). He should offer a solid batting average and great positional flexibility, needing just two more starts for first base eligibility in most leagues, while maintaining his lineup spot all year in Oakland. (3-5% FAAB)

OUTFIELDERS

10/12 Team Adds

Jo Adell (LAA, 58% CBS Ownership) – Adell shot up through ownership levels so quickly since last week, I usually wouldn’t suggest him this week as I focus on CBS rates of 50% and lower. It has been Jo Adell week on the site, with Coolwhip providing the long form deep dive we all needed. Simply put, if Adell is on your waiver wire, move to get him now and be aggressive. (9-11% FAAB)

Jordan Beck (COL, 31% CBS Ownership) – While I’ve long given up trying to determine the Rockies roster management, it is curious that they moved Beck along quickly after allowing the likes of Sean Bouchard, Hunter Goodman and Sam Hilliard to rot behind Michael Toglia, who was mercifully demoted this week. Before his promotion, the 23-year-old Beck produced a .307/.405/.594 (142 wRC+) line in the batter-friendly PCL. However, the most important marker in his 121 Triple-A plate appearances was cutting his K-rate to 19.8%, down significantly from a 31.8% mark in Double-A last year. This is a great week to test whether Beck is a loser, baby, as his Rockies get six home games. (5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Will Benson (CIN, 48% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jesse Winker (WSN, 47% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Mitch Haniger (SEA, 43% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), MJ Melendez (KCR, 46% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jarred Kelenic (ATL, 44% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL, 41% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jacob Young (WSN, 40% CBS Ownership, 3-5% FAAB), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC, 37% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Joc Pederson (ARI, 24% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Tommy Pham (CHW, 12% CBS Ownership) – Yo, I know the White Sox are super terrible, but Pham needs to be owned in most leagues at this point. He’s a steady .250 bat that offers 15 homer/15 steal production and should be well motivated to play his way out of Chicago for inclusion in a trade at the deadline. (5-7% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Harrison Bader (NYM, 19% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Nelson Velazquez (KCR, 18% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Mike Yastrzemski (SFG, 17% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Wenceel Perez (2B/OF, DET, 16% CBS Ownership, 3% FAAB), Leody Taveras (TEX, 15% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, CHW, 15% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), LaMonte Wade (1B/OF, SFG, 14% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Johan Rojas (PHI, 13% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Richie Palacios (TBR, 10% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Will Brennan (CLE, 6% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Sean Bouchard (COL, 3% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Dane Myers (MIA, 1% CBS Ownership) – I’m not sure what blackmail Nick Gordon owns on the Miami Marlins organization, but he continues getting playing time as a strong-side platoon with a disgusting .167/.197/.319 line while playing below average outfield defense. Seems like only a matter of time before Myers, who projects to be a league average bat and swiped 20 bags in the minors last year, breaks out of his short-side platoon and into full playing time in Miami. (1-3% FAAB)

Estevan Florial (CLE, 3% CBS Ownership) – If you are in an AL-only league, you know things are dire on the outfield waiver wire right now. Unfortunately for some of the weaker AL offenses like Chicago, Oakland and Los Angeles, those minor league systems don’t have much ready to offer a replacement. Florial is my suggestion here again (see further coverage last week) as he’s getting regular strong-side platoon at-bats in a solid Cleveland offense. Plus, he and the Guardians get four games next week against those lowly and right-hand-heavy White Sox. (1-3% FAAB)

STARTING PITCHERS

10/12 Team Adds

Christian Scott (NYM, 48% CBS Ownership) – This blurb could age very poorly as Scott is slated to make his major league debut against in Tampa on Saturday, but he looks to be one of the most intriguing arms we will see debut this summer. The 24-year-old has dominated Triple-A bats this year, pitching to the tune of a 3.20 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 12.8 K/9. His only bugaboo is the home run ball as he’s allowed 2.5 HR/9, but 92 Statcast Park Factor for homers at Citi Field should help him in the long run. Scott’s arsenal reminds me a lot of Bryce Miller in his debut last year, as he relies on a fastball/slider/splitter package that should make him usable in every league from the get-go. (5-7% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Logan Allen (CLE, 48% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Bryce Elder (ATL, 46% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Shane Baz (TBR, 46% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Mitchell Parker (WSN, 45% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jose Butto (NYM, 40% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Patrick Sandoval (LAA, 34% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Colin Rea (MIL, 24% CBS Ownership, 3% FAAB), Emerson Hancock (SEA, 22% CBS Ownership, 3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, 19% CBS Ownership) – We all love solid two-start week matchups, right? Woods Richardson gets a favorable draw, facing two bottom half offenses this week in Seattle and Toronto. In addition, the 23-year-old (he seems like he should be like 30 at this point given how long he’s been a prospect, no?) has finally turned a corner this year in Minnesota. His fastball is up two ticks and sits around 93 mph while he’s also been relying more heavily on a revamped slider, throwing it 29.0% compared to 16.5% previously, that has added five (!) ticks. All of this has amounted to a 2.45 ERA backed by a 2.18 FIP in his first 14.2 innings. Given that he pitches in the AL Central for a solid team, Woods Richardson offers an intriguing path to wins and steady pitching production rest of the summer too. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Slade Cecconi (ARI, 19% CBS Ownership, 3% FAAB), Jake Irvin (WSN, 18% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Matt Waldron (SDP, 16% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Ben Lively (CLE, 16% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Cole Irvin (BAL, 16% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Quinn Priester (PIT, 10% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Cade Povich (BAL, 7% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Ross Stripling (OAK, 5% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Bryse Wilson (MIL, 5% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Sem Robberse (STL, 2% CBS Ownership) – Well, it hasn’t taken too long for things to unravel in the Cardinals rotation again. Miles Mikolas looks toast and sports a 5.68 ERA. Steven Matz has an even worse ERA at 6.18 and is now battling back injury. Robberse, acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with Toronto last summer, has developed into a steady pitcher for the Redbirds in Triple-A. The 22 year-old sports a 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 in his first 35.2 innings, which should be quality enough to make him the first call-up should St. Louis need him over the next few weeks. (1-3% FAAB)

Richard Fitts (BOS, 2% CBS Ownership) – Despite sporting a whole six-man rotation on the IL now, Boston keeps chugging along, producing a league-leading 2.61 ERA under Andrew Bailey’s tutelage. However, they are going to need some length in that rotation eventually, and Richard fits the bill there. The 24-year-old sports a 3.91 ERA over 25.1 Triple-A innings and should be entering the Red Sox rotation as promotions are hitting hot and heavy over the coming weeks. Fitts will require a 40-man move to be added, which feels like the only thing that has held the Red Sox from bringing him up so far. (3% FAAB)

RELIEVERS

10/12 Team Adds

Hector Neris (CHC, 48% CBS Ownership) – Despite both walking and striking out 11 batters in his 12 innings, Neris continues to be the de facto closer in Wrigleyville, collecting five straight saves dating back to April 20. (5% FAAB)

Joel Payamps (MIL, 43% CBS Ownership) – Not comfortable with eating the WHIP disaster Neris is serving up? Well, Abner Uribe was demoted to Triple-A (maybe for anger management issues?), leaving Payamps to split saves with Trevor Megill in Milwaukee. Payamps sports a still unsightly but easier to digest 16.3% K-BB but does induce weak contact that saves ratios (2.29 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 10.2 innings so far). (5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Kevin Ginkel (ARI, 49% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Reed Garrett (NYM, 40% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), A.J. Minter (ATL, 36% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Yennier Cano (BAL, 33% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Michael Kopech (CHW, 33% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jason Adam (TBR, 32% CBS Ownership, 3% FAAB), Griffin Jax (MIN, 31% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Alex Lange (DET, 26% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Trevor Megill (MIL, 14% CBS Ownership) Speaking of Mr. Megill from above… here he is. He’s rosterable in all leagues given his career 28.2% K-rate and crack at occasional saves in Milwaukee. (5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Jeff Hoffman (PHI, 17% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Justin Lawrence (COL, 12% CBS Ownership, 1-3% FAAB), Garrett Cleavinger (TBR, 10% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC, 9% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Fernando Cruz (CIN, 7% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Ryne Stanek (SEA, 5% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Lucas Erceg (OAK, 4% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB), Jorge Lopez (NYM, 1% CBS Ownership, 1% FAAB)