Jo Adell Says Hello

Intro

Forgive this tired and abused Angels fan, but I didn’t believe this day would ever come. After seeing the team change managers and the same old tired routine of paying for replacement outfielders while Jo Adell would rot in Salt Lake hitting bomb after bomb, I didn’t think he’d ever get this chance. They broke me from ever seeing the upside of an Angels outfield prospect by repeatedly blocking them with Quad-A players. And now, with the DFA’ing of Aaron Hicks (who crushed my hope since preseason), Jo Adell is finally free and he’s able to reintroduce himself to the majors… then as I was writing this, the Mike Trout knee surgery was announced.

Cutting The Ks

We did it! We won? Jo Adell—through sheer grit and circumstantial opportunity (and lack of options)—has found himself into a starting outfielder role for the Angels that felt like a million miles away. Huzzah! They can’t send him away anymore! So, what are we getting in this player? What’s new? Twice in the last 3 years, Adell has hit 20+ HR in 70+ games at AAA with 8 and 9 stolen bases. He’s always shown potential but there’s always been some amount of struggle that the team hasn’t wanted to wait for him to adjust through it. His primary issue in the past has been strikeouts:

For multiple cups of coffee, Jo Adell’s strikeout rates flirted with 40%, which is clearly not a good thing when the ball isn’t even put in play for 40% of your at-bats. This year though… something is different. His strikeout rate in 2024 was sitting at 23.7% before his 1-4 game last night (without a K). He maintained a similar level for 140 PAs in 2021; but, Like I said before something is, in fact, different. He’s driving the ball better and more consistently, let’s take a look at how.

Contact

Looking at the statcast data we see that in the small sample so far his average exit velocity is up a tick to 88.7 mph, more firm contact with barreled hits (5), and a boosted hard-hit rate overall (52.5%). Though you could say it’s as much the sample as anything, this is the same sample he provided for 2023’s statistics. Let’s dive in further, what’s the approach of these hard hits?

As we look at Adell’s batted ball data the biggest change we see is a drop in his groundball rate (from 48.5% to 35%) and a large jump in his line drive rate up to 35%. And not only that, but in the small sample so far he’s been able to drive the ball to centerfield at a 45% clip. Usually, when a player hits 40% or more to center it indicates a good approach and they are seeing the ball clearly. This lines up with his pitch selection data as he’s making contact on balls in the zone right now 80.3% of the time, a feat he has never done. And, Jo Adell is slugging offspeed pitches more than before too, indicating discernment and patience.

The Swing

It can be seen in his swing. He’s finally been able to shorten his (well-known and long) swing down—much like Kyle Tucker—and strategically hit the ball to the opposite field when the situation requires it. He’s shifted from a pull-happy free-swinger to a more selective slugger. According to Savant, this improved approach and maturity at the plate has also led to him reducing his topped balls rate year-over-year from 39.4 to 22.5%. He’s keeping his base stronger, staying home, and letting the bat head trail in the zone more to increase his contact opportunity. Discipline and patience (for him).

Old Adell would have undercut this pitch trying to pull it for strike 3. Not now. Against the Marlins’ Burch Smith, he sent that pitch into the opposite field like Jeter for an easy sacrifice RBI. He’s a new man. This might finally be the season where Jo Adell “puts it all together.” He already had the power to drive the ball, and now he might actually have the patience to put it to good use. He’s been so close on many occasions to stepping forward and claiming a role in an often-crowded Angels’ outfield. And now he says “Hello” from the other side of a transformation into a disciplined hitter who could surprise with a .260+ average via a healthy batted-ball profile while contributing to 5 categories to the tune of 24/20 given 500+ ABs and currently hitting 2nd with a chance at more.