On Sunday, I imagined a hypothetical post-rona bar scene being akin to the deep pitching pool in dynasty baseball.

Today I’ll let you know whose drinks I’m buying if I’ve got the budget (and the roster space). 

I’m going to focus first and most on the 150-200 range because that’s the origin of this article–a comment and question by Harley Earl regarding which arms among the group I’m buying. To which my brain responded: Farts! I should’ve been doing that for every position!

Cory Abbott (150)

Got a good question about this cat on the reddit from redrifle007:

That is easily the highest I’ve seen Cory Abbott ranked – I’m in a 30 team dynasty startup draft and looking at taking him in round 41. Do you really think he could be a solid starter long-term?

“I do.

Can’t speak to what everyone else is thinking, but Abbott as the invisible man is baffling to me.

He’s a 2nd rounder from 2017 who’s forced promotions every few months and has only AAA between himself and a rotation chance. I’m not even sure he’d need it, as evidenced by his 0.80 WHIP in 11 AA starts after July 4 when his new cutter was really starting to take shape.

0.71 WHIP in his final 9 starts with a 34.5 % K rate.

Sure, maybe his base fastball isn’t plus, but the game is rewarding off speed command a lot these days, and he’s in position to reap.”

 

Scott Moss (151)

Got less of a question on Moss from HipsterDoofus31, who said simply “Too high on Scott Moss,” which had me wondering about which mosses might be able to generate a high. 

I set this aside (is moss a fungus) long enough to respond.

“Could be, I’m way outside the echo chamber on that one. Certainly don’t have to pay this sticker price to acquire him.

Lefties tend to come late, and Cleveland knows its stuff. He was a monster in six starts for them across AA and AAA, and he’s never allowed a HR/9 above 1.

Super small sample size, but it’s the last we saw him against the best competition he faced: he allowed just one HR in four AAA starts, striking out 30 percent of the hitters he saw. Certainly the September AAA talent was weakened by promotions, and there’s speculation the juiced ball was being swapped out late in the AAA season, but I think most the arrows are pointing up on Moss. They initially sent him to AA, but he didn’t get touched in two turns so they bumped him up.”

One of the huge things this Moss has growing for him is that he’s in Cleveland. Not only do they develop and maintain good fantasy pitchers, but they’re also . . . frugal? 

Always good when you’re seeking hidden value. Because of course it is. 

Side note: doing this I learned Cleveland drafted Asa Lacy in the 31st round out of high school in 2017. I wonder how much they offered him?

 

But with a guy like Tony Gonsolin (194), who I think I’ve underranked here, I worry that he’ll never really get a chance to win his spot. Los Angeles will never want for in-house options or funding for sleek imports. 

 

Same issue for Miguel Yajure (168), who I think could pitch major league innings this year for a lot of organizations. It’s a bit of a catch 22 because the clubs that succeed at building pitchers find their prospects blocked on a regular basis.

 

The Zac Gallen trade struck me as an elegant risk for this exact reason, and a pitcher who didn’t make the initial Top 200 who I’ve since included is Trevor Rogers (195). He strikes me as an anomaly. He’s a first round pick who’s in a strong pitching organization with an excellent big league setting. He’s also a 6’6” lefty who was dominant at High A in 2019 while being 1.9 years young than his average competitor. I think he’ll hit the ground running in AA whenever play resumes. 

If a team is good at developing pitchers and frequently involved in the free agent market, I tend to fade their prospects a little. 

Which brings us to the Houston Astros, where Luis Garcia (141) strikes me as a huge value this off-season. He’s generating almost zero buzz despite being utterly unstoppable in 2019, gaining velocity throughout the season and striking out 14.8 batters per nine in 65.2 AA innings to close out the season (39.4 K%!!). His Texas setting and even his name itself are playing no small role in suppressing his fantasy price; he’s likely seen as the third most relevant Luis Garcia for fantasy baseball purposes, behind the Washington and Philadelphia infielders of this same name. To me he’s the only relevant Luis Garcia at the moment. Some are still projecting the thick-thighed righty into a relief role thanks in part to his heavy usage of a double-plus slider and command that comes and goes, but he’s been rapidly improving month over month after spending his early career on the infield, I like his mechanics and athleticism, and I think he could burst onto the radar this year and perhaps even beat Forrest Whitley to the majors. Corona caveats apply, I suppose, but I think the situation might actually help Garcia. 

 

One guy it almost certainly doesn’t help is Ethan Small (146). He’s not Tarik Skubal, but he is a deceptive lefty who repeats his delivery and commands his off-speed stuff. I’m betting he’ll slide right through the minors whenever he gets the chance. 

 

Jonathan Bowlan (152) is in the process of doing exactly that, peaking when he threw an (extremely rare for High A) perfect game on July 15. Here’s what I wrote about him in January. 

Bowlan’s probably a free agent in most leagues, but I’m a big believer. He’s 6’6” 260 with a smooth downhill delivery that portends durability. His velocity has been climbing little by little since getting picked in the 2nd round of 2018’s draft, and I think he’s a sleeper for big league innings this year.”

The 2020 innings thing is out the window now, but that’s where his development was–he’ll be good to go in another 100-ish MLB innings if not sooner. Summer 2021 here we come!

 

Anderson Espinoza (200) is a dart I want in hand if I’ve got the fingers for it. I’m tracking him closely most places and holding him in my 30-teamer. 

 

Rank Player Age Team
1 Gerrit Cole 29 NYY
2 Walker Buehler 25 LAD
3 Jack Flaherty 24 STL
4 Shane Bieber 24 CLE
5 Jacob deGrom 31 NYM
6 Shohei Ohtani 25 LAA
7 Mike Clevinger 29 CLE
8 Lucas Giolito 25 CHW
9 Luis Castillo 27 CIN
10 Blake Snell 27 TB
11 Tyler Glasnow 26 TB
12 Jesus Luzardo 22 OAK
13 Stephen Strasburg 31 WAS
14 Chris Paddack 24 SD
15 Mike Soroka 22 ATL
16 Julio Urias 23 LAD
17 MacKenzie Gore 21 SD
18 Clayton Kershaw 32 LAD
19 Chris Sale 31 BOS
20 Frankie Montas 27 OAK
21 Max Scherzer 35 WAS
22 Justin Verlander 37 HOU
23 Trevor Bauer 29 CIN
24 Nate Pearson 23 TOR
25 Brandon Woodruff 27 MIL
26 Aaron Nola 26 PHI
27 Luis Severino 26 NYY
28 Jose Berrios 25 MIN
29 Patrick Corbin 30 WAS
30 Zac Gallen 24 ARI
31 Yu Darvish 33 CHC
32 Noah Syndergaard 27 NYM
33 Tarik Skubal 23 DET
34 Sonny Gray 30 CIN
35 Eduardo Rodriguez 27 BOS
36 Charlie Morton 36 TB
37 A.J. Puk 25 OAK
38 Zack Greinke 36 HOU
39 Forrest Whitley 22 HOU
40 Dinelson Lamet 27 SD
41 Matt Manning 22 DET
42 Spencer Howard 23 PHI
43 Luis Patino 20 SD
44 Casey Mize 23 DET
45 Max Fried 26 ATL
46 Michael Kopech 24 CHW
47 Brailyn Marquez 21 CHC
48 Kyle Hendricks 30 CHC
49 Madison Bumgarner 30 ARI
50 Luke Weaver 26 ARI
51 Lance McCullers Jr. 26 HOU
52 Jameson Taillon 28 PIT
53 Hyun-Jin Ryu 33 TOR
54 James Paxton 31 NYY
55 Jose Urquidy 25 HOU
56 Asa Lacy 20 ??
57 Brendan McKay 24 TB
58 German Marquez 25 COL
59 Kenta Maeda 32 MIN
60 Joe Musgrove 27 PIT
61 Zack Wheeler 29 PHI
62 Lance Lynn 32 TEX
63 Corey Kluber 34 TEX
64 Carlos Carrasco 33 CLE
65 Jon Gray 28 COL
66 George Kirby 22 SEA
67 Edward Cabrera 22 MIA
68 Emerson Hancock 20 ??
69 Domingo German 27 NYY
70 Sean Manaea 28 OAK
71 Mike Foltynewicz 28 ATL
72 Mike Minor 32 TEX
73 Michael Pineda 31 MIN
74 Simeon Woods-Richardson 19 TOR
75 Carlos Martinez 28 STL
76 Jake Odorizzi 30 MIN
77 Josiah Gray 22 LAD
78 Dustin May 22 LAD
79 Robbie Ray 28 ARI
80 Hunter Greene 20 CIN
81 Nick Lodolo 22 CIN
82 Aaron Civale 24 CLE
83 Yonny Chirinos 26 TB
84 Matthew Boyd 29 DET
85 Clarke Schmidt 24 NYY
86 Sandy Alcantara 24 MIA
87 Sixto Sanchez 21 MIA
88 Masahiro Tanaka 31 NYY
89 Josh James 27 HOU
90 David Price 34 LAD
91 Caleb Smith 27 MIA
92 Blake Walston 18 ARI
93 Andrew Heaney 28 LAA
94 Logan Gilbert 23 SEA
95 Alek Manoah 22 TOR
96 Reid Detmers 20 ??
97 Max Meyer 21 ??
98 Daniel Lynch 23 KC
99 Josh Lindblom 32 MIL
100 Grayson Rodriguez 20 BAL
101 Alex Wood 29 LAD
102 Carlos Rodon 27 CHW
103 Alex Reyes 25 STL
104 Adrian Houser 27 MIL
105 Miles Mikolas 31 STL
106 Griffin Canning 24 LAA
107 Kyle Wright 24 ATL
108 Ryan Yarbrough 28 TB
109 Ian Anderson 22 ATL
110 Marcus Stroman 29 NYM
111 Brent Honeywell 25 TB
112 Seth Corry 21 SF
113 Kwang-Hyun Kim 31 STL
114 Luis Frias 21 ARI
115 Cole Wilcox 20 ??
116 Anthony DeSclafani 30 CIN
117 Joey Lucchesi 26 SD
118 Joe Ryan 23 TB
119 Mitch Keller 24 PIT
120 Jordan Balazovic 21 MIN
121 Daniel Espino 19 CLE
122 Tahnaj Thomas 20 PIT
123 Zach Plesac 25 CLE
124 Garrett Crochet 21 ??
125 John Means 27 BAL
126 Dylan Cease 24 CHW
127 Dylan Bundy 27 LAA
128 Chris Archer 31 PIT
129 Marco Gonzales 28 SEA
130 Jordan Montgomery 27 NYY
131 Freddy Peralta 23 MIL
132 Jordan Yamamoto 24 MIA
133 Taijuan Walker 27 SEA
134 Ethan Hankins 19 CLE
135 Cade Cavali 21 ??
136 Ross Stripling 30 LAD
137 Matt Shoemaker 33 TOR
138 Jhoan Duran 22 MIN
139 Jackson Kowar 23 KC
140 Nathan Eovaldi 30 BOS
141 Luis Garcia 23 HOU
142 Corbin Burnes 25 MIL
143 Deivi Garcia 20 NYY
144 Jonathan Stiever 23 CHW
145 Ethan Small 23 MIL
146 Elieser Hernandez 25 MIA
147 Jonathan Loaisiga 25 NYY
148 Dallas Keuchel 32 CHW
149 Adam Kloffenstein 19 TOR
150 Cory Abbott 24 CHC
151 Scott Moss 25 CLE
152 Jonathan Bowlan 23 KC
153 Reynaldo Lopez 26 CHW
154 Julio Teheran 29 LAA
155 Jordan Lyles 29 TEX
156 Pablo Lopez 24 MIA
157 Shun Yamaguchi 32 TOR
158 Michael Fulmer 27 DET
159 Steven Matz 28 NYM
160 Homer Bailey 34 MIN
161 Cole Hamels 36 ATL
162 Jeff Samardzija 35 SF
163 Daulton Jefferies 24 OAK
164 Kyle Gibson 32 TEX
165 Dakota Hudson 25 STL
166 Corbin Martin 24 ARI
167 Matthew Liberatore 20 STL
168 Miguel Yajure 22 NYY
169 Brad Keller 24 KC
170 Shane Baz 20 TB
171 Shane McClanahan 23 TB
172 Yusei Kikuchi 28 SEA
173 Trevor Williams 28 PIT
174 Luis Medina 21 NYY
175 Zach Davies 27 SD
176 Austin Voth 27 WAS
177 Johnny Cueto 34 SF
178 Brandon Williamson 22 SEA
179 Zack Thompson 22 STL
180 Quinn Priester 19 PIT
181 Daniel Ponce de Leon 28 STL
182 Kris Bubic 22 KC
183 Robert Dominguez 18 NYM
184 Rick Porcello 31 NYM
185 Matthew Thompson 19 CHW
186 Merrill Kelly 31 ARI
187 Danny Duffy 31 KC
188 Brady Singer 23 KC
189 Cal Quantrill 25 SD
190 Michael Baumann 24 BAL
191 Brayan Bello 20 BOS
192 Chirs Bassitt 31 OAK
193 Spencer Turnbull 27 DET
194 Tony Gonsolin 26 LAD
195 Trevor Rogers 22 MIA
196 Vince Velasquez 27 PHI
197 Trevor Richards 27 TB
198 Tyler Beede 26 SF
199 Justus Sheffield 24 SEA
200 Anderson Espinoza 22 SD

 

Thanks for reading!

Stay safe!

(I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter and reddit)

 

 
  1. Philip says:
    (link)

    Itch, is there any indication that Brandon Woodruff is a 200 inning horse? I love what he did last year, but a part of me wonders if I should trade him for someone younger with better durability. He is currently my second best starting pitcher in a 20 team dynasty league and I am out of contention for the next couple years.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
      (link)

      Hi Philip,

      I think so yeah. He got a little deeper into games last year, and Craig Council is good a protecting his guys—and protecting their wins. I’d certainly give him 2021 because if he does complete a full healthy season, he could be pushing top ten.

      I’d definitely give him that chance

      • Philip says:
        (link)

        Thanks. I’m gonna take your advice.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
      (link)

      What up, Harley!?

      I can’t really tell from what I’m finding what’s going on here with Honey.

      Maybe it’s almost nuttin like Cheerios.

      Tho it’s never nuthin w Honey.

      But I’m getting some fragments that make it seem like his timeline hasn’t been altered much.

      I’ve got one share left in a 15, and I’m holding at least until we get some kind plan for 2020 (C”mon Tuesday!!!!).

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
        (link)

        If a mad dash for first ensues, I suspect I’d cut (or try to trade him).

        Man what a thought . . . bringing Honeywell to the trade table right now.

        I’ve always enjoyed a good symphony of crickets.

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