Throughout the year I’ve learned many things about Daily Fantasy baseball. Avoid lefties against the Rockies at Coors, never trust a Nationals pitchers, and always target hitters on a hot streak. With the last lesson in mind I’ve complied a lineup entirely filled with smoking hot bats. This strategy has been wildly successful for me all year, and typically is a great way to get a potent lineup on a limited budget. A good way to figure this out is to take a deeper look at the stats over the last two weeks. I’m about to give you a lesson in my native tongue of Stat Geek.
There are a few metrics that are particularly telling and I personally feel hold more weight in daily fantasy. My two favorites are wOBA and wRC+. I was put onto wOBA earlier in the year by the one and only Sky, and I have to say it was a revaluation. wOBA if you don’t know is based on linear weights and measures a players offensive contribution per plate appearance. Huh? I know right? I stole that definition from wiki. To put it in layman’s terms they apply a value to each positive offensive contribution whether it be a walk, a single, home run, etc and divide that total by the number of plate appearances. I have to be honest it’s not the only number I look at, but I now put more weight into that particular statistic than I do batting average, OBP, or OPS. It’s a great way to get a quick snapshot of a player’s overall performance without having to dig through stats for hours. Saving time on your homework is a huge advantage when playing daily fantasy. Of course you could just use Rudy’s DFSbot but my opening would have been really short.
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Jon Lester, SP: $12,100 – Jonny Lester gets the Mariners of Seattle this afternoon. Though the M’s are much improved they are also the owners of the third lowest wOBA against lefties. This is a matchup I expect Lester to take full advantage of. Two turns ago Lester went 8 and put up 19.8 DK points against the same Seattle lineup. He’s a shoo-in for 20+ points, Book It!
Yusmeiro Petit, SP: $6,700 – Coming off a 40 point effort against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday Petit is my favorite cheap pitching play on the board. He gets bitter rival the Dodgers today at home in the bay bay. Petit is certainly up and down but a high strikeout total is almost assured. If he can go 6 and keep the runs at 2 or lower this could be one of the tops plays of the day. His second half K/9 is 10.86 and his BB/9 over that time is .72. That’s filthy. Oh yeah and the SON likes him too ranking him 6th on the day.
Mike Minor, SP: $8,500, Hector Santiago, SP: $7,500, Marco Gonzales – All three of these pitchers are lefties facing offenses that rake against southpaws. Minor faces the Rangers owners of the 5th best wOBA vs LHP in baseball at .323. Hector Santiago draws the Houston Astros and their .332 wOBA against LHP. The worst matchup of the bunch is for 2013 first rounder Marco Gonzales as he gets the Rockies the top team against LHP according to their .345 wOBA. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys today, But hey the choice is yours….
Tyler Flowers, C: $4,000 – Over the last few weeks Flowers has had a couple of 2 dong nights, or as Asa Akira would say, work. I love the power and I love the matchup against Trevor May. Simple as that hot bat + bad pitcher = Daily gold.
Adam LaRoche, 1B: $4,500 – The second half monster is at it again wOBAing the hell out this month with an other wordly .536. That’s the type of number to make you go oooh oooh oooh oooh. LaRoche typically doesn’t do much against lefties but he’s had some success against Jon Niese with 3 homers and 8 steaks in 18 plate appearances. Go ahead, drink some of LaRoche’s funky lemonade.
Howie Kendrick, 2B: $5,100 – Howie K has been the definition of En Fuego the last two weeks as he’s been the número uno hombre en Beisbol. His wOBA over the last two weeks is .526. That’s the kind of number that makes you ask Who’s the Mack Daddy? It only gets better as he faces lefty Dallas Keuchel a player he’s hit .500 against in his career.
Juan Lagares, OF: $3,800 – He’s the Flavor of the Month baby get on the bandwagon. In September he’s already had games of 36, 22, 19, and 10. I like what he offers today at home against Jordan Zimmermann, but mostly, $3,800 is a great price for a bat this hot. What U waitin 4? Do it…
Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS: $3,500 – Not since Chi-Ali has someone flashed so much promise yet seemed to disappear so quickly. Well thankfully for Bogerts he seems to have finally shook the slump he seemingly has been in since May. He’s had games of 27, 21, 19, and 17 DK points this month, plus a couple of 7 and 8 pointers sprinkled in. He’s pretty cheap at $3,500 and the matchup with Jason Vargas looks great on paper as Xander’s wOBA is nearly 60 points higher against LHP. The matchup is Flawless.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather report is all zeros. So I’ll leave you with my favorite scene from EastBound and Down.
Doing Lines In Vegas
CHC vs PITT – 7.5 -over
BOS vs KC – 8 – over
COL vs STL – 7.5 – over
Hip-Hop Sunday: Native Tongues Edition, The Very Best of The Native Tongues Crew.
A Tribe Called Quest – Award Tour, Can I Kick It, Jazz (we’ve got) Buggin Out, I Left My Wallet In El Segundo
De La Soul – The Bizness, All Good, Ego Trippin (Part 2), Buddy, Eye Know
Jungle Bros. – I’ll House You, Because I Got It Like That, Straight Out The Jungle
As always, be sure to check the lineups, give a look at the weather and I toast your team with slightly chilled Manischewitz
Follow me on Twitter @ralphlifshitzbb or challenge me on DraftKings @ Puigroast
