Sup Sunday goers. Our resident Ralph had himself a thing on Saturday. A thing I don’t really wanna repeat in public so lets just say there were multiple piercings and paddleboards involved and mayhap a few types of ‘beads’. Needless to say, he asked to switch days and after explaining to him that next time he could just tell me he’s really busy and I don’t need the whole story, I humbly and nervously obliged. So here I be and here be Jeff Locke. Jeff isn’t that good of a pitcher; maybe league average. He’s just not one of those guys who’s going to have an All-Star season out of the blue and for streamers and DFS’ers, that’s just fine…wait, he was an All-Star in 2013? Man, I hate that game. Anyways, he only gotta be good once for us to be happy and he’s being spotted a prime matchup to make just that happen. Yes, we all know the Mets have performed well since gaining Yoenis but even he can’t help them with one major thing: their atrocious numbers vs lefties. On the year, the Mets rank 2nd to last at 24.2% for their K% against left-handed pitching. Only the Padres are worse at 24.3% so we are really comparing rotten apples to rotten apples here. Add in a miniscule 84 wRC+ and you’re looking at Locke’s chance to at a cheap $6,400 on DK. On a day with so many good options, there’s no need to risk him in cash but Jeff has 25 point upside with the matchup he’s been handed and if I’m multi-lineup building today, I’m gonna have some exposure to him. But enough about what’s under this overly large, brown dust-coat, let’s get on with the show. Here’s my publicly indecent hot takes for this Sunday DK slate…
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Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,800 – This slate has a lot of great pitching options but of the 10K and above players, I love me some hot Carrasco sauce. The Twins have been in free fall (or as I like to call it, regressing to the mean…cuz they ain’t that good, yo) and this has shown in their numbers against right-handed pitching. They aren’t the worst against them but with Carrasco at his best, he’s gonna make them look like it.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $9,100 – It’s been a while since I’ve rostered the Rooster but today is a good one for it. The Marlins are dead last in wRC+ against righties with a lowly 79. The next worst team is the Phillies at 85. It’ll be a question of whether or not the K’s are there but Martinez has the talent to rack up 10 on a good day. A Carrasco/Martinez pairing gives you some cash game wiggle room to try and price in big bats.
Drew Smyly, SP: $8,000 – It’s ill-advised, the rent is too damn high, and no one will probably be on Drew because they know he’s pitched like crap during his rehab start. And for all those reasons, it’s good to note that the Rangers have pretty poor numbers against lefties with a K% of 22.7% and a wRC+ of 86. A tourney only play that could have you emoticon’ing all the way to the bank.
Drew Hutchison, SP: $6,200 – Start all Drews today, I guess. It’s been mentioned a million times by me on here but I still gotta explain why every time. The Hutch is clutch at home where he’s particularly tough on lefties so far this year as they only have a .230 wOBA against him over 40 innings. You know the Yanks can and will be lefty heavy. Another tourney call with some numeric reasoning behind it. You’re welcome.
Luis Severino, SP: $5,500 – He’s a risk for a short outing as they monitor his pitch count but he also doesn’t have to face many lefties in that Toronto LU and of those potential lefties, two would be Ryan Goins and Ben Revere. Not much fear struck there. A 20 point outing is possible here if he can go long enough for a win and he’s very worth the gamble at this price if you’re trying to get in those Rockies and Padres bats. Speaking of…well, we just spoke about them. They’re expensive. Buy where you can…dur.
Josh Phegley, C: $3,000 – A lefty on the mound and you know the Athletics are gonna play the splits every time. Phegley probably bats 5th or 6th and has doubles and HR power. While I’m at it, fellow lefty masher Danny Valencia at 3B or OF is a good get at his reasonable $3,400 as well.
John Jaso, C: $2,900 – Guys like Jaso make me feel like David Wooderson: they keep not catching and yet they keep the same positional eligibility. Really, I just wanted to get you to read that sentence in Matthew McConaughey’s voice. Mission accomplished.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B: $4,600 – He hasn’t done anything to get people excited since his return but for the best pure hitter in the game, I’ll take him at a reasonable discount here.
Adam LaRoche, 1B: $2,500 – Normally, the adage is you should pay up for pitching and your corners and find discounts elsewhere. But when you get extreme flyball pitcher Dan Haren and his 2.35 HR/9 to lefties, you begin to look a little closer at ‘The Roach’. What, you didn’t know LaRoche was French for that? Would I lie to you? Overall, I don’t mind a White Sox stack on the day, especially the lefties. Consider this a thumbs up to Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B: $3,500 – Remember how I said to look for cheap Coors exposure. A lefty on the mound vs Gyorko is usually a nice thing. So it’s looking more and more like my lineup is going to feature a Phegley, a LaRoche, and a Gyorko. I don’t think there’s a joke there; it just looks beyond weird when you put them together like that. Oh and yeah, I ain’t moving off of the Gyork-store outside of some insane force of nature moving me off him.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: $3,500 – He ain’t what he used to be but if Smyly is as rusty as he’s been talked about, Beltre could belt one and at this price, that’s all you’d need.
Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS: $4,000 – He probably doesn’t find himself in my lineups today because he’s too expensive for me at short and both too expensive and lacking in power at 3rd. All that said, he’s done most of his damage against southpaws this year and gets Vidal Nuno which sounds like a cool Salvador Dali painting but is really just a full-on Monet.
Ketel Marte, SS: $3,000 – Cheap, leading off, and had a quiet 12 points yesterday in the Boston massacre. Really, Mariners? 22-10? That’s a football score and just cuz y’all wish it were that season it ain’t! Buck up! Anyhoo…I actually like a small Mariners stack today against southpaw Henry. I’m considering Franklin Gutierrez, Austin Jackson, and Nelson Cruz.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,700 – Davis is beyond streaky. Like, lay off the protein, bro. *Editor’s note, not that kind of streaky, Sky!* Either way, he’s hitting the ball hard right now and gets the monkey on the mound in Aaron Harang.
Gerardo Parra, OF: $3,400 – Parra hasn’t really be able to enjoy the fruits of Camden Yards for lefties until the last two games and he’s enjoyed it just fine. A Parra double with an RBI and a run covers the price of admission here. A Parra dong just puts you into orbit.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game that looks dicier than an Emeril stir fry is MINvsCLE. Be sure to check in on the weather there to make sure you’re not gonna get rained our or delayed if you’re taking a pitcher there.
Doing Lines In Vegas
No major surprises today as Zack Greinke sits on the throne as the king of all odds at -230. What is a major surprise is that he’s got a queen sitting next to him with Carlos Martinez at -230 as well. It’s also a bit of a surprise to find Wei-Yin Chen a -170 favorite but with an 8.5 o/u, Vegas sees the merit in some OAK bats, too. The half run shave off of the HOUvsDET game along with seeing a -185 line in favor of Houston makes me a little more curious with Mike Fiers but the Tigers just don’t K enough for me to attack them on a regular basis. No surprise to find that COLvsSD is the high o/u of the day at 11 but there are plenty of runs to be had in TORvsNYY as they’ve given them a half run bump up to 9 from the open. Obviously from my pitching selections, I ain’t buyin’ it. There’s also a half run bump going on with the KCvsLAA game up to 8. Finally, although they got a half run shave, the BOSvsSEA game sits at 9 and looks very prime for cheap offensive pickins’.
