Nothing like starting the week off with some Alice In Chains, amirite? Wait, what am I talking about, I’m the old fogey around here. So what do you want to hear, kids? The Billboard top 100 tells me you might want to hear some guy (band?) named OMI and his song about cheerleaders so lemme go listen…yeah, you can keep that at a comfortable 100 foot distance from me cuz I just filed a restraining order. Alright, checking the top 100 rock tunes…Walk The Moon with ‘Shut Up And Dance’ is a rock song? I mean, I get the guitarist things he’s The Edge but rock? You know, I was right, you wanted to hear some AIC and if you didn’t please leave and don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out. Or do, really, I DGAF, that shizz is terrible. Wait, where’d you all go? Damn kids…ok, for those still here, I’m done with the nostalgia bomb and read to talk about Wood. Alex Wood, to be specific. Everyone is going to be scared off and for good reason. Pitcher going from the easiest division for pitchers to one of the best parks for hitters is very daunting but those splits, doe. Orioles don’t sit at the top end of K% against lefties on the year but 22% is no laughing matter when you consider the miniscule 5.5% BB rate. It’s definitely not a cash play call here as Alex has not performed up to expectation this year but if you’re looking for a tourney edge, no one will be on Wood at $7,100 today and there’s K upside here. So go enjoy your rock of choice (caveat: it can’t suck) and play some Wood, could you? Your wallet may thank you for it…
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Kyle Hendricks, SP: $8,200 – Something good to point out here: Chris Heston is the 3rd most expensive pitcher on today’s slate at $9,500. If you’re wondering why you can’t seem to find a deal, that should tell you plenty. Something else good to point out here: Rocky Mountain High is fun but the comedown is terrible. The Rockies lead MLB with K% on the road at 24% and have the 4th worst wRC+ away from Coors. Hendricks will be a popular option today but it may not be against your good judgement to stay with chalk today. I plan on pairing Hendricks and Lance Lynn in cash for full disclosure.
Michael Montgomery, SP: $7,300 – My last mild suggestion for arms…Dbacks weren’t controlled at home against a mediocre Brewers staff and own a 26.6% K rate over their last 7. The ballpark shift obviously favors Mike but Arizona can get very right handed-heavy overall. Again, I’m probably just paying for Hendricks and Lynn and moving on with my life. You might just follow me.
John Jaso, C: $3,200 – I’m pretty sure I recommended him last Friday or at least last Monday. I mean, a catcher who bats lead off…opportunity, bro! I see no reason to look to pay up at C today when there are lenty of low end options that can go 0/4 for you!
A.J. Pierzynski, C: $3,000 – Camden yards is the 4th best park for left-handed hitters and guess what? That’s exactly what A.J. is. I wouldn’t go overboard with ATL bats but I would consider Freddie Freeman and the revenge of Nick Markakis, aka Sparkakis!
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $4,400 – Cody Anderson is a groundball specialist who pitches to contact. KC as a lineup is a bunch of line drive specialists built on making plenty of contact. Sounds like a matchup made in hell for Cody to me. This is one of the few days where a KC stack sounds a tad intriguing. Gimme some Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas at the very least.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,800 – If there was a ‘rake’ emoji, I would’ve tweeted ‘Odor is *emjoi*’ing since his call up’ because he has. I should know, I drafted him in my NFBC league and have been enjoying the ride. Feel free to hop on and enjoy it with me, at least for a day.
Scooter Gennett, 2B: $2,900 – The main reason I didn’t suggest Heston was that he struggles vs lefties and Milwaukee has some decent ones as well as good righties and their lineup has been trending upward of late. If you need some cheap 2B action, hop on your Scooter and ride.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $5,600 – No one will pay for him at this price but there’s too much cheap talent in the OF and 1B to not at least consider it. Harrison’s decent start in Colorado is called and outlier. I expect a regression to the mean coming for Matt in the most unholiest proportions with A-Rod being the catalyst that starts it.
Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B: $3,600 – Boston has been a death trap offensively since the return from the All Star break but Xander against a lefty at home at this price seems reasonable to me. I wouldn’t be looking for a HR here but I’d be happy with 8 to 10 point production at this price and believe that’s feasible.
Nick Ahmed, SS: $2,400 – The Dbacks have struggled and it may have to do with batting this guy lead off when facing lefties. That said, it wouldn’t take much for him to cash at this price and opens up options elsewhere. Given the so so matchups at SS, I’m up for some Nick at nite. That joke goes out to you EST’ers out there. I visited Florida in May and watched the Mariners at midnight. Now I get why y’all don’t know much about the good players on this side of the world.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $5,000 – Cruz has been in a groove of late as he has 4 HRs over his last 10 games and now gets a LHP. Things are setting up nicely for him to grab his boomstick. If I were feeling saucy, I’d also consider a few other Mariners against said lefty. I’m looking at you, Austin Jackson and Mark Trumbo. Don’t disappoint me like you have most of the season, ok?
Dexter Fowler, OF: $3,900 – For his career, Fowler has a .302 average vs southpaws and on the year has 16 steals. Dexter could hit one or he could get on base three times and steal a bag. The chances for payback – both for his DK cost and for revenge vs Colorado – are high here.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a lot of wetness to keep your eye on for this short of a slate. The big scary one would be BALvsATL which at the very least looks like its destined for delay. Keep your eyes and ears peeled for any updates there. Currently, BOSvsCWS looks like it could also get a late start or worse so be wary. Meanwhile, STLvsCIN looks like it will have most of the weather problems done and gone by game time but my dopler radar says it could move into game time.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Lynn and the Cards has the biggest line at -210 on the night so cash gamers should be on him. Meanwhile, TBvsDET is essentially a pick’em with Nathan Karns at -116 but the big thing to take away here is the open vs current run line moved down a half run. Could be that both Karns and Anibal Sanchez are in play for that reason alone. There are two games with a 9 o/u: BOSvsCHW and TEXvsNYY. Putting pulling some bats from both games would be wise. Vegas also seems to be in love with Gausman from BALvsATL as he sits at -170. Let’s just say with my calls above, I’m a disbeliever.