Hello everyone and welcome to Sunday!
I’ll be frank with you guys, this slate does not instill confidence in me. There are some very good options on offense, but not too many like I have seen in the past and at the same time, there aren’t many good pitching options at all, so much so that spending up for two SP’s seems like a must on this 11-game main slate of games.
There’s not many value options here, as the only one I could even remotely endorse is Cesar Ramos at $4,600 against Toronto, however he’s facing Toronto, so that probably isn’t a very good idea.
But, as I listen to “Regulate” off of Warren G’s 1994 “Warren G Regulate…G Funk Era” album, I am very determined and confident that I can help you guys find some good pitchers, good pitchers to pick on, and some great bats. You ready?
Let’s get to it.
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Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $9,200 – Tanaka doesn’t have the stats that other high-end Aces have. He doesn’t have a superb K%, a super-dooper low SIERA and xFIP, but we don’t need this today against the White Sox. Tanaka is the 3rd-most favorited pitcher on the slate, currently at a vegas line of -170, and should get some crowd support pitching at home. There are two great things about Tanaka: the fact that he have a pretty great SwK% rate at 13.10% so far in 2016 (proving he can consistently get guys out with his stuff), and the fact that he has one of the, if not the best bullpens in all of baseball, so preserving the W for Tanaka will be a very easy task against the White Sox.
Jose Fernandez, SP: $11,700 – Fernandez has been a absolute monster for the ‘Fish so far in 2016, being his high strikeout potential being the biggest perk for rostering Fernandez. Although it won’t definitely stay like this for the rest of the season, his 34.50 K% (44% against righties) and 14.4% SwK% should give you an idea about how dominant he has been in striking out guys. Fernandez will definitely have to deal with some of the ‘Nats powerful bats, but he had a very solid outing a couple of weeks ago against them. BvP isn’t the most reliable, but it should be noted that the Nationals are currently only batting .237 in their last 59 AB’s against Fernandez.
Aaron Sanchez, SP: $8,200 – Again, I usually prefer having at least one low-priced SP so I can have some comfort in selecting the bats that I want, but there are absolutely no one priced lower that $8,000 that I would consider, except for maybe Cesar Ramos, but he’s facing Toronto. Facing across from him is Sanchez, who has had a pretty fair 2016 campaign so far. He doesn’t have the top-notch stats, but it shouldn’t matter too much today. The biggest perk about Sanchez is how safe he is, with a 20.90 K% and a very good 59.20 GB% so far in 2016. You also can’t deny the support any Toronto SP has with that great offense batting behind him.
Tucker Barnhart, C: $2,200 – First off, what a great name. Barnhart. Tucker. Amazing. Second off, our good ol’ buddy Tucker has a good matchup today against Adam Morgan and Co. as Morgan hasn’t done very well so far this year with a 13.9 K%, 30.60 GB%, and has really struggled against lefties with a 5.24 xFIP and a very low K-rate of 11.10 K%. Tucker has done very well so far against Southpaws, with a .267 ISO, a .339 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ so far in 2016. At this price, anyone should take it, especially with the lack of value plays at the SP position.
Jason Castro, C: $3,600 – Houston Astro lefty bats are a very common theme in this slate write-up, because simply put, Sean O’Sullivan sucks. In 2015 in 13 games started with Philadelphia, he has a 6.36 xFIP, 8.50 K%, and a .481 wOBA against lefty bats. Yikes! The Houston (lefty) stack is definitely 100% in play. As long as he keeps the strikeouts down, it should be noted that Castro has a .230 ISO, .379 wOBA and a 146 wRC+ so far in 2016 against RHP’s. Barnhart is a great salary-relief play, but Castro is a fine option as well.
Justin Bour, 1B: $3,400 – A weekly visitor of my columns, Bour has been really good so far in 2016, and draws another favorable matchup against Joseph Ross and the Washington Nationals. Ross has struggled very greatly against lefty bats so far with a 5.34 xFIP, 12.50 K%, 12.7 BB% and a .337 wOBA to prove it, to go along with his general weak K%. Don’t be fooled by his 2.29 ERA (4.19 SIERA). Bour has owned RHP’s in 2016 with a 12.0 BB%, .233 ISO, .336 wOBA and a 125 wRC+.
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B: $3,300 – Between you and me, I rather have Bour for $100 more, but if you are trying to diversify your lineup, Wallace should go extremely under-owned as a member of the very weak San Diego Padres. The Padres have a good matchup against Zach (nice name!) Davies, especially lefties, as not only does he have a general 5.51 SIERA, Davies also has a 5.86 xFIP, 12.0 K%, and a .418 wOBA against lefty bats in 2016. Wallace has done fairly well against RHP’s with a 18.0 BB%, .189 ISO, a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. He’s a fine Tournament Option and a contrarian pitvot off of Bour, whose ownership could be high, but I really don’t have an idea of where it should be.
Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B: $3,400 – Another weekly visitor to the show, Dietrich, much like Bour, has been really good so far in 2016, and draws a good matchup against Ross. As I mentioned above with Bour, Ross has struggled very greatly against lefty bats so far with a 5.34 xFIP, 12.50 K%, 12.7 BB% and a .337 wOBA to prove it, to go along with his general weak K%. Dietrich has done really well against RHP’s in 2016 with a low 17.10 K%, .227 ISO, .399 wOBA, and a 147 wRC+.
Andres Blanco, 2B/3B: $2,800 – Another salary saver due to the lack of value options at SP, and a good one at that too. Blanco has a good matchup against Dan Straily, who has struggled greatly against lefties this year with a 12.50 HR/FB%, a 5.89 xFIP, a strong 15.20 BB% and a weak 15.3 K% to them so far in 2016. Blanco has done well against RHP’s this year with a .273 ISO, .448 wOBA and a 179 wRC+. Those stats may not stay constant throughout the entire year, but should give you an idea of why he shouldn’t be $2,800 on DraftKings today.
Javier Baez, SS/3B: $2,800 – Gerrit Cole presents a problem for us today. He isn’t good enough to use for us at the SP position today, but he is too good to pick on. However, it should be noted that Baez does well against RHP’s, especially in 2016 with a .180 ISO, .332 wOBA and a 103 wRC+. In a very shallow SS position today, Baez is really the only SS I would want to use today. He shouldn’t instill the greatest confidence in anyone today, but he should get the job done, especially considering he has the platoon advantage.
Colby Rasmus, OF: $4,100 – Like I mentioned with Castro above, Houston Astro lefty bats are a very common theme in this slate write-up, because simply put, Sean O’Sullivan sucks. In 2015 in 13 games started with Philadelphia, he has a 6.36 xFIP, 8.50 K%, and a .481 wOBA against lefty bats. Rasmus has done very well against RHP’s this year with a .229 ISO, .341 wOBA, and a 118 wRC+.
Steve Souza, OF: $3,600 – Not many Tampa Bay Rays have been considered in DFS this year, and Souza should go pretty low-owned. But it should be noted that although Sonny Gray has a young arm and plenty of upside, he isn’t very good against Righties, and Souza has done well against RHP’s this year. In 2016 he has a .224 ISO, .325 wOBA, and a 111 wRC+. He does strike out a lot, so he’s mostly play in Tournaments, but he should do pretty well today, as it lines up.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,300 – Another member of the Miami Marlins, who have also been regular visitors on the show! As I mentioned above, Ross has struggled very greatly against lefty bats so far with a 5.34 xFIP, 12.50 K%, 12.7 BB% and a .337 wOBA to prove it, to go along with his general weak K%. Yelich has been grubbin’ against RHP’s this year with a 15.30 BB%, .245 ISO, a .429 wOBA, and a very high 167 wRC+. He should be the top play of the day, in my book.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Looking at the forecasts now (1:55 am EST), there are only 2 issues of concern, and they’re are very low issues. The first one comes at the Minnesota-Cleveland game. The rain should come in two hours before first pitch at 1:10 pm EST, but then should go away around 2pm-3pm. This could result in a delay, but definitely not a postponement. Same goes with the Toronto-Texas game, but with even lower chances of actual precipitation. Other than that, it is clear with blue skies and sunshine, a.k.a “Baseball Weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Not many things worth getting excited over, however it should be noted that the Houston-Boston game has the highest Vegas O/U I have seen when covering Sunday’s, with a 10.5-point game total. In other games, Danny Duffy is the most-favorited SP in Vegas with a ML of -177, and he should be considered in cash, but has a capped upside with a low K%. Other games that have high O/U’s and whose offenses should be considered can come from the Baltimore-Detroit game (9.0 O/U), Milwaukee-San Diego game (9.0 O/U) and the Texas-Toronto game with the second-highest O/U of 9.5.
Alrighty guys, thanks so much for sticking around, and I can’t wait to see you guys at the top of the leaderboards come tonight. And also, don’t forget to check back into Razzball on Monday for our exclusive 25-man contest on DK! Good luck to you guys participating.
