Drew Hutchison has been somewhat of a gas can this year….on the road. That’s right, away from the hitter-comfy Rogers Centre, D-Hutch has been atrocious on the road. Consider these away stats:
.433 wOBA/,429 OBP/.592 SLG
4.66 xFIP/5.40 FIP/9.6 K-BB%
It’s gross. And it’s in line with his whole career numbers, though not as individually garish as the 2015 stats are.
So how is he at home, where he’ll be taking the mound Wednesday. Surely in such an offensive haven as the Rogers Centre, Hutchison may pitch better than on the road, but it’s negligible, right? Again, please consider:
.266 wOBA/.282 OBP/ .315 SLG
3.50 xFIP/2.80 FIP/ 15.9 K-BB%
Look around the league and you may find guys like this; SPs who are super at home, no matter the park they call home, but are stinkers on the road. Last season, Jorge De La Rosa had much better numbers at home than on the road, scary when you consider his home park is Coors Field.
So Hutchison is better at home than on the road and he’s not just better, he’s a good pitcher at home, raising his K-rate and lowering his other qualitative numbers at home. He’s a big favorite (or at least Toronto is a big favorite) and should be able to dial up the 15 or so points he’d need at this rock bottom price of $5,400 to make value. Since most of the DFS players are going to remember all the shellackings that has been administered to Hutchison on the road, and the offensive numbers at the Centre, he’s always very low owned. He’s not a solid cash game (50/50, H2H) play, but he’s on my tournament rosters. Come join me, if you dare!
Hutch likes to pitch at home,
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Madison Bumgarner, SP: $10,600 – Skinny slate of SP pushes MadBum to the top tonight. He has the Braves, who are 26th over the last 14 days in wOBA and RC+. That means they are not good at the hitting. They don’t K a whole lot so that’s a problem, but I’ll take the Vegas number of 3.1 runs for the nine inning game and believe that Bum can drive deep into the game and make up that lost K ground.
Yasmani Grandal, C: $3,500 – Grandal has been one of the best hitting catchers all year and he’s in a good hitters park in Philly, facing Aaron Harang. A lot of folks were on the Dodgers Tuesday night and may have gotten burned, which might mean less players on guys like Grandal today
Brian McCann, C: $4,300 – Another team folks were on were the Yankees, and they delivered exquisitely. McCann hit a three-run home run and McCann at home vs. a RHP is a certain cash game play.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $3,900 – Phillies. Harang. A-Gon doesn’t need to provide me with too many reasons to roster him, so I’ll be riding again.
Ryan Rua, 1B/OF: $2,900 – If for some reason you are looking for a discount in a high total game, Rua will likely get the start opposite LHP Scott Kazmir, and he hits with authority so roster away.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $3,000 – But if you’re reallllly looking for value, then you should already have a few notches in the Cesar Hernandez belt. 3K is a great price for someone who continues to get on base, steal, score and everything else.
Scooter Gennett, 2B – $2,700 – It’s been a year since the Summer of Scooter, and I just can’t quit him. He leads off vs. RHP at home, which is a fantastic combination. With all the other teams garnering stacky attention, the Brewers at home are a sneaky lot.
Alex Guerrero, 2B/3B: $2,500 – Alex Guerrero looked awful Tuesday night and not in an awfully good kind of awful. He was a whiff machine against Jerome Williams for pete’s sake, so we’ll see how he does again vs. RHP Harang and if he whiffs three times again I may start to lose faith.
Anthony Rendon, 2B: $3,300 – He’s going to get going soon. He’s batting second in the Nats lineup, which is back to being fully stocked. Rubby De La Rosa certainly struggles more against lefties than righties, but Rendon doesn’t struggle at home vs. RHP and he has a terrific price for a man of his hitting ability.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $4,400 – Tulo! I like the Blue Jay version almost as much as the Rockies version, except in the Rogers Centre I never have to worry about rain because they can zip up the roof if they need to hide from Mother Nature.
Jimmy Rollins, SS: $3,300 – With Joc Pederson being moved down the stack in Los Angeles, Rollins has moved up and is hitting well in his old home park in Philly.
Preston Tucker, OF: $3,700 – Love some Press Tucker, who will get Nick Martinez, who struggles against lefties. Tucker was relatively quiet on Tuesday, but the price is more than right for the cleanup hitter in a tasty matchup such as this.
Andre Ethier, OF: $3,000 – Had enough Dodgers yet? After missing last night, a lot of these guys will be lower owned. Include Ethier who ended up in the cleanup spot on Tuesday and could be there again tonight.
Jose Bautista, OF: $4,900 – Big Joey Bats. Against Tyler Duffey (not a typo). I obviously like the hitting so Bautista, along with Tulo and Josh Donaldson, certainly are prime plays.
Gregor Blanco, OF: $3,000 – But if you want to shoot lower, Blanco has been batting second and the Giants on the road is a good thing.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
A possible pop-up thundershower is all that’s on the forecast at this point, but always check the weather forecast around the industry to make sure you are not drawing a dead lineup because of a PPD.
Doing Lines In Vegas
No shortage of high lines tonight, as most of the top hitter parks are in play. It’s a 9.5 game total for Scott Kazmir v. Nick Martinez in Texas. And Minnesota at Toronto leads a threesome of games with a nine run total. D-Hutch is the leader with a -200 number on his game at home and the game with the lowest total is the Mets and Marlins in Miami.
