I said it last week and I’ll say it again, if you’re still reading our DFS content at this point in the game, then you most likely had yourself a profitable season. Congrats and come on into the comments and brag about your successes. Let’s see if we can finish off the season on a high note and maybe win a little extra spending money before the holidays. Also, if you’ve done well this season (Over $600 in winnings) you’ll need to set a little aside for taxes, you know, if you’re into paying those.
Now, come sail away with me to Arizona. Don’t worry, it’s a “dry” heat. Once we’re there, we’re going to check out Robbie Ray. Ray checks in with a very affordable $6,900. Let’s face it, he’s affordable because he isn’t really that great, but, and it’s a big but, he’s got a couple things going for him. Well, he’s got one thing going for him and that’s his opponent. The Rockies are such a beautiful disaster away from Coors field, that they can make even make the most mediocre pitcher look amazing. Away from home, the Rockies have the lowest team OPS in the majors, about 50 points below league average as a matter of fact. Even more in Ray’s favor is his handedness. The Rocks are bottom five in team OPS vs. Lefties. Add this up and you can see a lefty on the road is death on the Coors crew. It makes sense really, their only scary RHB is Arenado. Does DJ LeMahieu strike fear in your heart? Wilin Rosario maybe? I thought not. Ray’s been fairly respectable in his own right. His 3.53 ERA is right in line with his 3.55 FIP and his 8.3 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. Ray’s biggest issue is being a little WHIP-y at times and that can get him into trouble. I think this match-up really sets up well for him though and he can be a low-priced star for tonight’s slate. Let’s look at a few more potential stars tonight:
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But first, something I haven’t gotten to do in awhile, a shout out to Pacochu, who took down our little 5 team league last Tuesday. It’s been tough filling our little Razz league of late, but the 5 teamer filled in a jiffy and Pacochu swiped all our money thanks to Lackey and McCullers leading the charge. Nicely done.
Mike Fiers, SP: $8,600 – Here’s a classic example of this time of year when a team needs a win (HOU) and a team is packing it in for next year (SEA). It’s Kershaw and Bumgarner at the top tonight and I’ll let you flip that coin for who you trust more but Fiers could be a cash game number two if you can’t afford Ross or he could be a GPP numero uno if you chose to fade the top.
Bartolo Colon, SP: $7,000 – It’s crazy to say it but Colon might be one of the safest options tonight, making him a great pairing with a Kershaw or Bumgarner. Like pairing wine with food we’re pairing food with our SP1. That food or course is floating around inside Bartolo’s belly. He’s been pretty lame lately but the last time he was in Philly he posted 31 DK points. The Met’s have the NL East wrapped up and should let Colon go the distance in this one because I’m not sure they use him in the playoffs. The best part is, David Buchanan is opposing him and even the Mets’ B-team should be able to knock him around and get Bartolo a win. You don’t have to love it, just close your eyes and click.
Daniel Norris, SP: $5,500 – I featured Norris in my last article and all he did was go out and throw a perfect game through 5 innings. I warned about the pitch count, but for his cheap price, the 5 perfect frames paid off. He gets a small bump in price but his pitch count should also be up to around 80 in this one. Texas is a little scary but it’s a risk/reward play. There’s no one cheaper I’d trust more than Norris for some sweet upside.
Yan Gomes, C: $3,300 – Cheap wine and cheap catchers; even if they give you a headache, at least you didn’t pay much for them. Gomes is riding a 7 game hit streak and has clobbered Kyle Gibson to the tune of 6 hits in 11 ABs with 2 of them homers. Yan can can can!
Jose Abreu, 1B: $3,900 – This is mainly a price call and a notice that Abreu is much, much too cheap. He’s priced all the way down with Justin Morneau who’s facing a lefty. That’s just wrong. He is facing Cueto and Cueto could all of a sudden get his shimmy back but he’s looked pretty hittable as a Royal and Abreu’s taken him yard once before.
Evan Gattis, 1B: $3,600 – With half the games potentially being washed out tonight (more on that below) I’m trying to focus on west coast games only which makes pickings thin. Gattis is always a threat for a multi-HR game and is a great GPP play because of that. Plus, if I recommend Gattis, I get to show you this. You’re welcome.
Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF: $3,600 – You had to know this was coming if you peaked and saw the Cubs were facing a righty. Coghlan hasn’t been mashing like he was midseason lately but Josh Smith has given up about a run per inning this season (19ER in 23 IP) and I could see Coghlan getting in on that fun tonight.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $4,100 – Teddy Heater referred to Samardzija as “Puke Soup” the other day and I loved it. Of course, he went on to shutout the Tigers that day, but is anyone really buying that he’s all of a sudden good again? I’m not, he could flip a switch and be giving up 9 runs in 2 innings just like that. Moose Tacos would oblige and has taken him deep twice in the 9 ABs he’s had vs. Samardzija.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $4,100 – Due to the wonders of a roof, the Rays will still be playing and Longoria gets to face lefty Adam Conley. As frustrating as Longoria’s been, he’s still who you hoped for when he gets to face left handed pitching. His .345/.396/.581 slash line vs. LHP is much better than his righty slash line which I won’t depress you with. Conley has been OK, but isn’t someone I’m looking to avoid by any means.
Jed Lowrie, 3B/SS: $3,400 – All-in on Astros. Jed gets to bat in a primo lineup position most nights for some reason. Even if you’re not staking Astros, he’s a good, cheap play at SS. Not many shortstops get to bat cleanup after all.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $4,000 – It’s been a lost season for Ells for sure. It’s impossible to know which of these games will be PPD and which ones might play. Ells is our BvP special of the night though. Career vs. Rick Porcello Jacoby is 11 for 21 with 4 HRs and 2 SBs. Cha-ching.
Ender Inciarte, OF: $4,000 – I’m riding the hot hand hear in what is essentially a bullpen start for the Rockies. Bergman was crushed his last time out, but that was in Coors and on short notice. Still, he’s not a starter and even if Ender doesn’t get to him, the rest of the Rockies bullpen is far from wonderful. Look for Ender’s hot streak to continue.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Oh boy, it’s going to be a night full of weather watching and things could get real ugly. There’s rain possible all over the east coast, BOS@NYY, TOR@BAL, NYM@PHI and WAS@ATL. There is also rain possible in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. That’s a lot of rain. With some of these games mean nothing for either team (WAS@ATL for example) I could see them getting PPD. Keep an eye on them and err on the left coast games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Cole Hamels is the biggest Vegas favorite on the night at -200. Cubs/Reds and Rockies/D-Backs each offer a 9 run total tonight while the Kershaw vs. Bumgarner showdown has the lowest over/under at 6.5.