Mondays are just a mess. Most teams are traveling, the matchups that would seem to make sense sometimes just don’t pan out because of…well I don’t know what. I think travel fatigue plays a part. Look, we’re all human. You travel from place A to place B, finally get into your humble abode and are you well rested? Do you feel a bit of the lag of the jet variety? Just to clue you in, athletes may be millionaires but they haven’t built teleportation yet so just like you and I, they gotta deal with the troubles of travel. So for this Monday, I’m going a bit against the grain – unless that grain is for alcohol, then I’m all about said grain – and suggesting a pitcher who gets to enjoy a pitcher’s park and there’s no travel involved for him on this moving Monday. Said pitcher is Alex Colome, pronounced ‘CALL-uh-may’ but I just go with ‘Call On Me‘ given his stats. Over 10 IP this year, he has 10 K and zero walks. I know, sample size small, obligatory ‘that’s what she said’ following but the kid had aviary bird flu or sumpin’ to start the year or we’d have a larger sampling to work with. Now the Yankees are a hard team to K (19.2% overall, 17.6% on the road) so we are really hoping for some of those old bones in that Yanks lineup to have themselves a sleepless in Tampa Bay moment. As the call ain’t safe, it should be clear that this is a tourney only call and at $6,700, you don’t have to break you DK wallet to see if his endline ends up as beautiful as that aerobics instructor. Yes, you gotta click the link to get it. No, you shouldn’t really listen to the song. Yes, that is Steve Winwood…didn’t I tell you not to listen? But enough of my talk about Swedish techno tracks, it’s time for it. Here’s my blazing hot take on the Monday DK slate…
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $8,100 – Don’t let his home/road splits so far fool you. Jacob took his lumps in the house next to the house that Ruth built like many a good young arm has before. He wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last. I’d love for him to not be playing in Chi-town and against another top tier arm but like I mentioned in the lede, Mondays be messy. The Cubs still lead the league in team K% at 26.3 and their stadium doesn’t really play to the bad side of the splits for Jacob so I’m all for climbing his ladder today.
Scott Kazmir, SP: $7,100 – He’ll probably be a popular name on the night given his price point and the slate so I won’t pump him too hard. That’s what she said! Wait, what? I will say that Boston on the year sees nearly a 4% increase in their K rate when facing a southpaw and are bottom 10 in that category at 21.7% plus Scott has been Kaz money in his two home games this year.
Danny Duffy, SP: $6,400 – Over the last 7 days, only the Cubs (29.7%) have K’d more per game than the Rangers (27.2%). Sure, Tampa Bay has some great arms but that don’t mean that Texas hasn’t hopped on board the whiff wagon. Gimme some of the Duff man for tourney teams.
Marco Estrada, SP: $5,300 – Tourney play of the day. On the one hand, you say, ‘Marco Estrada?!? Doesn’t his last name rhyme with piñata for a good reason?!?’ and to that the answer is ‘yes’. But what team is third worst in team K% behind only the Cubs and the Astros is my question in return. Answer: Orioles. Everyone is going to tell you he’s going to be the whooping boy for your DK bats and I’m not gonna argue the reasoning. I’ll just mention he has K/9 upside and the right matchup to capitalize on it…or get thrashed. Like I said, tourney play only!
A.J. Pierzynski, C: $3,200 – The hot start has worn off and he’s probably pissed off every teammate by now so he may not even be playing. But if he is, he has the platoon splits advantage and I want to be there when Mike Leake turns back into a pumpkin. PS, not about spending up on catcher today so consider this a nod to Tuffy Gosewisch if you’d like to punt even further. PS part deux, a lefty Braves stack against good ‘ole Mike isn’t out of the question so here’s my thumbs up for Freddie Freeman and maybe Nick Markakis.
Joey Votto, 1B: $4,500 – If I were an ERA chiropractor, which of course supposes ERAs need chiropractors which we don’t need to suppose because they don’t but IF…well, Miller’s ERA could use some realigning. His 1.66 ERA is pretty but his xFIP of 3.71 puts him basically in Mike Leake territory. If my last few Mondays are any indication, I’ve called pitchers who are pitching well but were due for regression the wrong way but telling you to pitch them. Consider this a nod to the Reds squad but if you ain’t stacking, at least enjoy the splits with Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton if AJ is behind the plate.
Kendrys Morales, 1B: $4,200 – Don’t let recency bias tarnish the last three years of what Colby Lewis does – or better to say doesn’t do – against lefties. I’m all about a KC stack today, especially the LHBs. You’ll have to choose between Morales and Eric Hosmer, but after that gimme some Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and perhaps even Jarrod Dyson.
Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF: $4,000 – One of the original platoony toons for Razzball, Blanks gets another lefty on a Monday. Let’s just hope he isn’t shooting blanks this time. I want the money shot, baby!
Neil Walker, 2B: $4,400 – If you’re spending up at 2B, here’s the DFSBot 2B play of the day. The Bot weighs park factors, home vs road factors, splits factors…but your eyes can tell you there’s also the Jerome Williams factor. Consider this a nod to Pirates bats in general but if you don’t wanna get that liberal with your Buccos, the lefties Gregory Polanco and Pedro Alvarez could be nice plays.
Scooter Gennett, 2B: $3,500 – The Shark has played more like Left Shark this year. His GB% is the worst as a starter and he’s K’ing less than 7 per 9. If that trend continues on the road, no matter how good the matchup may look on paper, I’m all about getting my Scooter out and riding.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $4,200 – I rostered him yesterday and took my goose egg but the stats tell me he’s still a play vs LHP. I’ll make like a disgusting fast food ‘sandwich’ and double down here.
Jung-Ho Kang, SS: $3,900 – It’s hard to know if he’ll be in the lineup but after going 2/4 with a HR and the game winning single on Sunday, it’s hard not to think Clint Hurdle won’t be shouting KANG when handing in the lineup card.
Bryce Harper, OF: $5,500 – He’ll probably need to be a cash game lock for you because in the immortal words of Mugatu…Harper…he’s so hot right now…Harper…
Josh Reddick, OF: $3,700 – Yeah, it’s not the best ballpark to target the Athletics enjoy themselves a bit of home cooking despite it as they have the 8th best wRC+ at home on the year. OAK will be one of my favorite stacks tonight as I expect it will be for many. If I’m not following that line of thinking, though, I at least want some Reddick without a need to call my doctor about it.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game that could be in danger on today’s slate is CINvsATL with 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms to start the game. At the very least, I believe the game gets in but it’s even more of a reason to fade the arms if it looks like an extended delay could be in order.
Doing Lines In Vegas
To no one’s surprise, Greinke sits as the top dog favorite on the slate pitching at home to the Marlins (-220). Meanwhile, the TEXvsKC game has a half run bump downward so even at 8.5, it seems they might be seeing what I’m seeing for the Duff man. The highest run expectancy for today is in the CHCvsNYM game so if you’ve got cold feet about deGrom…well first off, go see your doctor. Sounds like you have circulation issues. Secondly, I understand your worries.
